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Posts posted by kaiguma

  1. Also, it wasn't much of a koshinage. When the kimarite was announced, the commentator said something like, "They called that a koshinage?" After watching the replay, he said, "Well, he had Chiyohakuho on his hip ever so briefly. I suppose since the winning waza started that way, they could call it a koshinage." Both the announcer and the commentator agreed that "One would imagine a koshinage to be more dramatic or dynamic than that."

    Very often, a rare kimarite is in the eye of the beholder.

    Shotenro also initiated his uwatenage with a pretty vicious inside leg trip. I think Murray on the Engllish side was a bit off to call it a ketaguri, but it was hardly an uwatenage...

  2. On the feed on cable ...

    This is a bit confusing. I generally use feed to describe the NHK stream available through their website.

    But you are talking about the NHK broadcast, right? In other words, the one with announcers/commentators?

    You know, the gold hat would be pixellated in the webfeed. It just wouldn't warrant a thread in that case...

    "I was watching the feed last night and it occurred to me: censorship these days is just out of control!!!"

  3. 18-0 so far, Is Tochiazuma's record under threat anyone? Should be hitting the wall soon

    I believe it is at 16 consecutive wins now...

    I actually didn't realize Tochiazuma's 26 rensho was a record for opening streak. I somehow thought Tosayutaka or someone around that 'era' had far surpassed 26 in a row. Whoever I was thinking of, I guess there were losses sprinkled in there.

    EDIT: not Tochiazuma's record, unless we are talking about a speed record?

    Check out Itai's 26 wins from debut.

    Technically the record is Itai's. Tochiazuma just tied it.

    And yeah, I could see Aoiyama beating it...

  4. On the feed on cable ...

    This is a bit confusing. I generally use feed to describe the NHK stream available through their website.

    But you are talking about the NHK broadcast, right? In other words, the one with announcers/commentators?

  5. Are they paying you to post this (Holiday feeling...)

    Somehow you actually made me WANT to eat at a MacDo.

    Oh, wait now I see the banners there... guess I was distracted by greasy food.

    The composition is interesting, even if the banners are somehow understated.

  6. I didn't notice anything odd, but that may be due to the fact that he does it just about EVERY time he gets kensho. Namely, snatches the envelopes with a strong sweeping mption that almost appears greedy. Then he glares all around almost menacingly as if to say: "Yeah I took it! And who's gonna stop me?!"

    Back when I used to notice this little antic I used to think, how funny, he's acting as if he did something he's not supposed to be doing when he took the money...

    And ironically that is precisely what he's not supposed to do. (Holiday feeling...)

    IIRC Uchidate and others have commented on the glare (looks a lot like the glare at his final approach to the corner before tachiai) but I think she only made note of it today because of the Imperial presence.

    Unless there was something else i missed...

  7. Now for the interesting part: Both ichimon may be playing a key role in the Takanohana brouhaha as they hold 17 and 13 votes respectively and may offer some potential for Taka to siphon off votes without the unfaithful voters endangering their own ichimon's spot. However, the leadership is having a different idea - with it being a virtual certainty that a vote will take place, both ichimon have agreed in principle to form a coalition and attempt to sneak away with a third riji spot; neither ichimon has had two riji since the tumultous 1998 election. Another meeting will be held on the 14th (Tokitsukaze) and 18th (Takasago) to figure out the details and presumably settle on a candidate suitable to both groups.

    This will raise the total of candidates to 12. With Nishonoseki left with 22 votes (minus the 6 Takanohana votes), they may find themselves with only 2 delegates after the dust settles.. The one in the worst position at the moment is Naruto Oyakata. "There are still some days till the election, and a lot of things can happen till then. Magaki's voting either way won't change my wish to run for the job", he said. Still, there is a possibility that he might step down if he sees he has no chance.

    Looks like The Touched One actually knew exactly what he was doing... He can get himself on the riji and simultaneously punk the guy that was going to take "his rightful spot" in the first place. And by punking Naruto I mean actually punking the leaders of the ichimon who convinced Naruto to run when his heart wasn't really in it. He probably doesn't care either way, minus the fact that now he is already a candidate it looks pretty weak to withdraw.

  8. And perhaps as a warning (to myself as well) to not take these snapshots too seriously...

    Rendaiyama, 22 years, 24 basho, Ms46->Ms17

    Tochihiryu, 22 years, 24 basho, Ms43->J3

    (Just to make sure - for that career length, the predictor being used is the high rank, not the current rank, right?)

    Thanks for pulling out a specific example for me to try and latch on to my understanding gap.

    SO assuming I understand what Asasho is assuming, Rendaiyama and Tochihiryu are in different subgroups of their cohort right? And thus bigly bigly different predictors.

    But even if this is so, and creates much-needed deviation, what is the true range of a predictor window?

    For example, in your first set you showed us 0 - 11 averaging 5.5 and 5.5 happens to be what? M15? And if 0 is Yokozuna then what is 11? So if a subgroup carries a potential range of Yokozuna to somewhere in high Makushita (?Ms3!) we are just going to call all of them M15? After all of your efforts to this point it seems rather pointless.

    There must be a better way of creating more deviation and spreading out the predictor within the subgroup rather than using the midpoint and sticking it to every single member of the cohort. Asashosakari's oft-repeated comment on highest KK seems very apt. Of course you'd have to write new algorithms to test the idea and figure out how to apply it, but essentially a subclass system would be identified within each subgroup. This would result in another and much larger set of "no data results" so you'd have to create a secondary predictor column, let's call it "refined." If enough data exists, you could pinpoint the predictor rather using the midpoint.

    Just in case I haven't made sense, let's take Kaisei and say within his cohort he is subgrouped with Tochinowaka (Ri).

    For the sake of this argument, both have career highs of Ms6 and both are predicted for M3.

    I am assuming that M3 represents a range of Y - M10. (0-4.25?)

    So additional mining might find that subclasses exist within the subgroup:

    those with career high KK within 3 points of the high, 5 points of the high, 8 points, and more than 8. [A B C D]

    Kaisei is thus a 'D' and Tochinowaka having achieved KK from Ms 13 (7 ranks = 2 points) is an 'A' class within the subgroup.

    Kaisei's prediction is refined to a range of M6 - M10 and so he is predicted at M8.

    Tochinowaka is refined to Y-S and so Ozeki is the refined predictor for subclass A.

    Also, can we have an asterisk somewhere for every member of a subgroup with say, less than 10 members? Of course not for this set, but if it's not too much trouble for the next one you do? And 10 was arbitrary. More stato-minded folks could debate on where they would want to see an asterisk. Essentially since we know when there is not enough data I'd like to know when we had "just barely enough data" as well.

    Anyway, my critique notwithstanding, I am very impressed by the results of your first public run for the data.

    Arigato gozaimashita.

    ps - and of course you mentioned that your data shows the best results in Sandanme and below. Maybe that's what I am getting at. Some (intelligent) variation on my example above might provide what's missing to make the data more valuable above the sandame level. Also, why not publish a predictor history of key rikishi throughout their career. For example, all of Goeido's prediction values from Jonokuchi to Sandanme would help a lot in assessing our moving target.

    Edit: aha! so while writing this post several of the issues were addressed by the main parties of this conversation. go figure (Shaking head...)

  9. Well, I remember in some comment I made a promise to give year-end wraps for my two adoptees, Brazilian born Kaishin [formerly Kainohama] and Kaisei of Tomozuna beya. Reason being I had been quite delinquent in keeping up to date with their progress. Well, searching for a format to follow I see we all have been quite delinquent about it. Maybe my year-end review will inspire others to do so as well.

    Kainohama had his troubles with knee injuries over the past three years, but since the shikona change Kaishin has remained injury free. He has held onto high-middle of sandanme with a 31-25 record. That is spanning the past 8 basho so back to 2008 Aki. His rank has only advanced since then (i.e. not fallen below Sd73 where he started) and he is now ranked at Sd21E, exactly one spot away from his career high rank from 2007 Kyushu. It was in fact at this rank that he was injured outside of pre-basho practice so he did not have a chance to make his mark at this level.

    2009 went like so:

    2009.01 Sd23w 3-4

    2009.03 Sd41e 3-4

    2009.05 Sd57e 4-3

    2009.07 Sd44e 3-4

    2009.09 Sd62e 5-2

    2009.11 Sd35w 4-3

    And you can see that his only test at this level was close but no cigar from Sd23w. But ending with kachikoshi is promising. Kyushu started with 2 losses and then a consistent improvement to 3-2. With everything on the line for his final bout, he secured KK emphatically via yoritaoshi. He also had not achieved KK from a rank above Sd39 so we are seeing slow progress. At this point I am happy as long as he can creep toward Makushita while healing well and remaining genki (Sign of approval...)

    First bout is on shonichi vs. Masunofuji who he has not yet faced. Masunofuji is lower on experience and weight but has already had a brief stab at Makushita.

    Kaishin does however hold a far superior record in Sandanme.

    Here's to another KK and a new highest rank!

    Kaisei has come very far in short time so it's an exciting and long overdue report.

    2009 went like so:

    2009.01 Ms60w 3-4

    2009.03 Sd15e 5-2

    2009.05 Ms52w 5-2

    2009.07 Ms31e 2-5

    2009.09 Ms46w 7-0 D

    2009.11 Ms6w 3-4

    Hatsu saw him sliding out of his first stint in Makushita, which began at 2008 Natsu with a promising 5-2 from Ms52W and a 4-3 from Ms35W. But from 29W it was 2-5, 3-4, and 3-4 to take a short trip down Sandanmory lane. He repeated his previous promotion-earning record of 5-2, piggybacked that at Ms52w, and again heat a wall at around the Ms30 mark. But he came back with a vengeance in Aki and ran for the yusho with a zensho performance, his first ever! He lost the kettei-sen to Ms10E Gagamaru so we know was down in size, power, and experience. An honorable effort indeed.

    The promotion was a little higher than I expected, and to be honest it had me a bit worried. With a new career high rank and a totally different tier of competition, I was very surprised to see Kaisei start off like gangbusters from Ms6W. 2-0 and then 3-1 against 3 former sekitori: yorikiris over giant Kitazakura and featherweight Hoshihikari, oshidashi over fellow highest-ranker Matsutani and the one loss by sukuinage from perennial and crafty juryo Kanbayashi. He then dropped the last 3 matches against Sadanofuji, Satsumahibiki and Nakanishi. Sada and Naka are high-Makushita mainstays over most of 2009 or longer and Satsuma seems to be on his own little gorilla warpath so there's no shame in these losses. In fact, I am proud that he managed as well as he did for his first basho in seriously thinner air.

    Presumably(?) beginning on day 2, Kaisei stays in high-Makushita fighting from M10E with another shot at reaching the promotion-zone!

  10. As always, your secret internet lovers will listen for your every grunt and moan.

    Oh, hey everyone should check this out:

    I just discovered a filter on the forum that will automatically X out your social security number if you enter it with dashes in the proper spots. Not sure if it works with similar numbers from other governments.


    Go ahead and give it a whirl...

    And you gotched me what? I hope it's a present.

  11. I was so distracted by the one of the photographer's thong . . .

    She was probably just trying to fit in.

    So in the photo directly above we are seeing Kyukushuho? If that's him he is looking like a real beast!

    And this schwinging thing, I hadn't heard of it since Wayne's World! But seriously, how have I never heard it discussed here before? It's over 700 years old and apparently developed totally independently of any of the Asian belt-wrestling... Maybe there is also a Russian counterpart? I am once again amazed.

  12. I am sorry to go wayyyy off-topic, but here we do see Wajima entering a [square] ring with not so much ceremony... they didn't even do a hand-clap and shiko?

    I really thought Akebono was the first former yokozuna in Proresu! Have there been others?

    And again, sorry for the OT, but youtube is youtube. First link that appeared from the Wajima clip with Demon in the announcing booth.

  13. It seems he was focusing on the present. I don't remember him saying that there have never been foreign wrestlers from outside Europe and Asia...

    Although when he mentioned the beginning of Ama Sumo being in 1985 you'd think that would have been a natural tie-in. Both Hoshitango and Hoshiandesu entered Ozumo in the next 3 years. If they had indeed trained at the first site of Ama Sumo in Argentina that would indeed be a big omission.

    Otherwise I thought it was a great informational piece with a good cultural angle and completely absent of all the ignorant garbage we see in so many articles on Sumo outside of Japan. And the photos are nothing less than brilliant. The concrete and the clay - what a setting to practice Sumo!

  14. Another observation: Only one out of nine sekitori from Aomori is younger than 30 years.

    Though I wouldn't be shocked if most of them will be replaced by new Aomori guys in due time. Nogami, Sasaki or Takarafuji come to mind as likely future sekitori, and that's just those who are already in the pro ranks. (Plus longer shots such as Homarefuji and Aisaka.) Heck, maybe even Hochiyama will eventually figure it out again....

    I have to guess Hochiyama has a horrible trick knee. Nothing else could better describe his rapid decline. I hope he could make it and we've seen others do the same like Tamaasuka, but from here I couldn't give him a better outlook than say... Satoyama?

    I'll put my money on Takarafuji so Isegahama can have 4 sekitori for a brief while.

  15. Seiya Minami ε—θ–δΉŸ (17) from Minamiawaji in Hyogo Prefecture will be joining Isegahama Beya in March. He is 173 cm tall and weighs 120 kg and has been a standout member of Ichikawa High School sumo team.


    Love my Isegahama boys!

    Does anyone have a picture or a link to one???