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Everything posted by Yarimotsu

  1. Yarimotsu

    Top 100 Rikishi since 1965 by Elo Rating

    As others have mentioned - there's been previous foolhardy attempts to implement ELO into sumo, and there are very obvious signs of inflation in your data here. Firstly, your methodology seems to have caused a lot of mediocre wrestlers from the peak elo periods to be included. Asashoryu and Hakuho were miles ahead of the competition at their peaks, which lasted years, and I assume the people benefiting here are those who managed a win against them near those times. It makes sense for chess - a dominant grandmaster will simply not lose to someone with lesser skill under the right time controls. In sumo, anyone can slip and anyone can win almost instantly. The ELO framework does not apply well to a pursuit with a large element of randomness because you're not actually measuring any potential move up the rankings. I can't figure out what you are trying to measure by using ELO either. Secondly, the inflation over time is incredibly apparent. Taiho, my favourite contender for Greatest of All Time (before Hakuho eliminated that topic of conversation from any doubt), is theoretically within your 1965-present timeframe. He was in his prime in 1966, and won at least 13 yusho that should be part of your ranking. Kitanofuji, Kitanoumi and Wajima all must appear at high all-time rankings (top 20) if you're claiming to say anything meaningful about sumo pre-1980. Chiyonofuji must be top 5 all-time if you're saying your 1980s data analysis is robust. Akebono and Takanohana/Takahanada must make your top 20 if the 90s matter at all. If you're trying to say the overall level of competition simply must be higher now than then because some mathematical formula proved it, simply go and watch matches from these earlier time periods. What you claim about the ELO does not pass the eye test. The final nail in the coffin is the bottom half of your top 100. It contains many wrestlers who can be described as having done nothing of note, having highly inconsistent performances, and really not being in contention for such a list on the strength of their achievements. Yutakayama, Wakamotoharu, Nishikifuji, Kagayaki, Shimanoumi and Kotoshoho - none of these wrestlers have had a real breakout basho. They're also-rounds in a period of change or youngsters yet to truly do something impressive, not contenders in a period of strong leaders. You must've noticed something was off in creating this exercise. If you still want to apply a rating system to sumo, please at least review some oldschool fights to get your eye test right, and make sure the obvious greats are at least given a fair shot by your algorithm.
  2. This is exactly why I said what I said in the GTB thread. The kyokai either breaks their own recent precedent to promote someone to komusubi under outdated 'rules', or they create The Worst Banzuke Ever. My initial draft had Abi at M7 - I don't think that's what they will do, but they'll have to break a lot of rules and put a lot of people in undeserved spots to avoid it - or just promote someone to komusubi whose record was promotable a decade ago.
  3. Yarimotsu

    GTB invite- Hatsu 2023- 32 entries so far, 13 days to go

    Well I've made my entry. I wonder if everyone who picks the same number of sanyaku as myself will have them all on the 'right' sides of the banzuke... My justification for extra Komusubi is flimsy. However, if they don't do at least that much to alleviate the backlogs in maegashira ranks, this will be The Worst Banzuke Ever.
  4. Yarimotsu

    Makunouchi Yushos in 2023

    Takakeisho, Terunofuji, Abi, Takayasu, Kotonowaka, Hoshoryu
  5. Yarimotsu

    Bench World Cup 2022

    Should now have mine and Kurosaki's by PM, @Jejima
  6. Yusho in Hatsu for Yoko promotion? Then another yusho later in the year.
  7. Yarimotsu

    Kiribayama's 2023 - on the ascent?

    Dropping out of the sanyaku early, recovering late in the year.
  8. Yarimotsu

    Ichinojo - where will he go in 2023?

    Not betting on an intai. Perhaps a short suspension? Probably not any blinding success. M12?
  9. Yarimotsu

    FIFA World Cup 2022 offical fantasy

    Well I joined for a laugh as I don't watch any league soccer, just the world cup, so I'd be surprised if I bounce back. I suppose I can at least use a powerup
  10. Yarimotsu

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    As a long time field hockey player I'd also contend that offside is not really a necessity for soccer to produce good and entertaining matches - hockey did away with it decades ago and kept the change. Offside severely limits options for chance creation, while henka allows for different vectors of attack: banning henka would be much more like implementing offside than doing away with it.
  11. Yarimotsu

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    Yeah I don't think the prizes are a conspiracy, just that they hand them out a lot less in recent years.
  12. Yarimotsu

    Videos-Kyushu Basho 2022 - Days 1-15

    Sorry to enter in on your unblemished topic, but I thought I just have to share something about today's video from Chris. I know many of you warned about speculation, and of course he speculates. But now I've seen him doing something I really hate: He's lying to his audience to drum up a fake narrative. Surely someone who has been watching lower-division sumo as long as he has must know that Makushita pairings are done based on record. However, in this video and a previous one he chose to say that Shiden vs Asanoyama would be an appropriate finale (when they clearly cannot fight each other) and then suggested the NSK was favouring Asanoyama somehow by not giving him the imagined bout with Shiden. What utter tripe. I still generally like Chris' coverage but there's just no excuse for such an intentional lie. Again, sorry for coming into your thread just to complain about someone else. But it is the video thread for this basho, right?
  13. Yarimotsu

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    I didn't believe in Tobizaru. I do now!
  14. Yarimotsu

    Trivia bits

    Thank you for the correction, I had so many tabs open and must've closed some before deciding what I would do with that info. This changes things slightly: Mitoizumi and Kotonishiki both competed in Juryo in Nagoya 2000, but they did not have a match (probably because Mitoizumi missed days 8 and 9). I've edited to show this.
  15. Yarimotsu

    Trivia bits

    Today, Asanoyama defeated Tokushoryu in a Juryo bout. This is the first time that two winners of the Emperor's Cup have faced off in Juryo. After an inefficient but hopefully thorough search, I have determined that the only Makuuchi winners who subsequently dropped to lower divisions were Wakanami (Yusho in 1968, J in 1969), Tagaryu (Yusho in 1984, J in 1988-91), Kotofuji (Yusho in 1991, J in 1994-5), Mitoizumi (Yusho in 1992, J in 1999-2000), Takatoriki (Yusho in 2000, J in 2001-2), Terunofuji (Yusho in 2017, J and lower 2018-2020), Tokushoryu (Yusho in 2020, J in 2021-22) and Asanoyama (Yusho in 2019, J and lower in 2022). EDIT: As Asashosakari pointed out, Bishuyama (1955), Takamiyama (1984) and Kotonishiki (2000) also competed in a juryo tournament before retiring and there are others who dropped but did not compete. Nagoya and Kyushu 2000 are therefore the only other tournament where two former Emperor's Cup winners competed on the Juryo torikumi - Kotonishiki at J1 in both did not face Mitoizumi, who competed at J7 and J11.
  16. Yarimotsu

    Bench World Cup 2022

    That doesn't line up with what I was told about my entry, but no worries on my end as it has been accepted.
  17. Yarimotsu

    Bench World Cup 2022

    You should have received an email from Kurosaki on the 13th. Please confirm if this is not there and I will get him to send it again @Nekonishiki Banji
  18. Yarimotsu

    Bench World Cup 2022

    I thought Achiyama was saying that Kaba had the issue in only sending a lineup for Round 1, where he needed to send 3 rounds. @Jejima ?
  19. Yarimotsu

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    It looked a lot more to me like he tweaked his knee while on the rope, then tried to balance on it and it gave way / was painful so he lept from the dohyo. Edit: From Chris' angle, you were definitely correct. Looked really bad actually.
  20. Yarimotsu

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    Kotoeko's win just now was incredible. I'm not sure what style of dance to call that, I think hip-hop is something different... but the name resembles that action!
  21. Yarimotsu

    Yokozuna Terunofuji in 2023

    My strategy is to put my guess in as early as possible, because I don't think we'll have any real indication of his readiness for Hatsu in time for this poll to close so I don't think it will matter. I don't think Teru will have a good year. Maybe a yusho or two. Maybe more kyujo basho than not. I can definitely see him being injured for most of the year and this resulting in at least one disaster basho that wipes out the rest. Hopefully my clairvoyance is wrong.
  22. Yarimotsu

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    I was relishing this bout after I saw that head-to-head when researching for Norizo's Game. Immediately my head went to Chain Gang and it seemed like the perfect opportunity to get rid of those who pay much more attention to H2H than I do. Played out perfectly, and along with Kinbozan looking sleepy in the first bout, those of us who remain are already in the points (I had improving Hokuseiho against a clearly limited Chiyonokuni). My reason for thinking the Sadanoumi-Hokutofuji bout wasn't as one-sided as the record shows? Firstly, two of those results are from Sadanoumi's less-than-impressive 2018 outings, so you could really call it 0-3 with his new approach. Secondly, their styles don't really contrast. Hokutofuji will have to dodge (difficult at his size and difficult against Sadanoumi speed) or slap down (prone to failure, especially so for the same reasons) at least some of the time. I don't think he tends to block well at the tachiai and Sadanoumi has lately been charging hard. So in my mind it was just a matter of time before a decent contact led to a straightforward push out and the green-belted man won that H2H.
  23. Yarimotsu

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    I also think it's takakeisho's basho to lose and he seems in the right mindset to get it won. Kotonowaka is my pick for runner-up, if they handled sanyaku promotions like they did a few decades ago he'd be in the same position as wakatakakage and looking strong.
  24. Yarimotsu

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Kyushu 2022

    1. Ryuo MK 2. Wakatakakage 9-6 3. Chiyosakae KK 4. Ryuden KK 5. Kinbozan KK 6. Chiyotora KK 7. Inoue KK 8. Hoshoryu 10-5 9. Hokuseiho KK 10. Asashinjo KK 11. Takakeisho 12-3 12. Kiribayama 7-8 13. Kotonowaka KK 14. Roga MK TB 19
  25. Yarimotsu

    Banzuke Surfing Kyushu 2022 (18th Wave)

    Oshoumi Ms54