Hoshotakamoto

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Everything posted by Hoshotakamoto

  1. Hoshotakamoto

    March Madness (Makushita)

    Well Makushita is holding up on both ends. I don't see a lot in the bottom 8 that excites me so I hope that Kinbozan can hold serve this time around. With Hatooka being a recent Sandanme winner and Shishi being Shishi I can see some intrigue at least in the next round for all the matchups in the top half. At this point there is not very much left happening in the winner's bracket and I will try to put together the 1-loss bracket which is very very busy.
  2. Hoshotakamoto

    March Madness (Makushita)

    We came really close in one of the recent basho to me wondering if the top Sandanme person was going to face Ryuden. In fact I think Nishikawa may have been the one to preserve the integrity of the yusho race, if it was in fact the last one?
  3. You're not feeling it for Otsuji? The kid knows how to get a 4-3.
  4. Hoshotakamoto

    March Madness (Makushita)

    Yeah so here is where the ground starts to shift and we won't know until afterwards whether Takakento is just another early-round exit or if Takakento clips the whole branch of the top Makushita rikishi off of the winning bracket. One example I recall was when Abi won the makushita yusho in March of last year but Daishoho was 5-2 with an undefeated record against other Makushita wrestlers. Should Daishoho have been the champion? From the perspective of Abi, Daishoho was effectively competing in a different division than the one Abi won. Here's what the bracket would look like if Tochimaru prevails against Takakento. I rendered this using a website called scorecount that supports up to 32 finalists.
  5. Hoshotakamoto

    March Madness (Makushita)

    I don't know how easy this is to read any more. The best online bracket generators I could find online support up to 32 and I might just do that for days 7-13. Also planning to post the one-loss bracket here soon but it is significantly more work than bookkeeping the single-elimination race, and of course there are several 6-1 finishers.
  6. Hoshotakamoto

    March Madness (Makushita)

    This is not an extremely valuable update since it's a near certainty that I will have to reconfigure the matchups with Ishiura's departure. Nonetheless the most direct followup to my initial post contains these updated outcomes from days 3 and 4. EDIT: I spoke without reading the matchups on the sumo website. It turns out that this is a reliable depiction of round 3 of the yusho race. Still no telling how round 4 will play out (e.g. Tochimaru could easily win and then get called up to face a Juryo).
  7. Hoshotakamoto

    Game 21 for the Haru 2022 Basho

    Today I will crush the competition!
  8. Hoshotakamoto

    Banzuke Surfing Haru 2022 (18th Wave)

    I guess I entered myself in the 17th wave (new to all this). For this one how about Toseiryu (Jk10)
  9. Hoshotakamoto

    Banzuke Surfing Haru 2022 (17th Wave)

    new player - Kototebakari (jk10) ?
  10. Hoshotakamoto

    GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

    Just realized I lost 3-4 points by assuming for 15 days (and a month of rest) that Chiyomaru entered as M13 west and Yutakayama entered as M13 east. Note to self: DON'T DO THAT.
  11. Hoshotakamoto

    GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

    Does anyone know the algorithm for computing "points" in the all-time rankings? I gather that it is based on the last 6 with the option of sitting one out. Still not exactly sure of the formula. EDIT: my initial guess is that a number is set for a tournament, then your points are (6 tournaments ago) * 0.5 + (5 tournaments ago) * 0.6 + (4 tournaments ago) * 0.7 + (3 tournaments ago) * 0.8 + (2 tournaments ago) * 0.9 + (last tournament) * 1.0 but this is wild extrapolation from reviewing the scores of "CheeseBeaver" 2nd EDIT: and this is almost entirely confirmed by reviewing "Hokutoyama". still not sure how to determine the monthly calculations that feed into this 3rd EDIT: from reviewing first-timer scores it's clear that points scored in 11/2021 was "points divided by 49.6" and in 1/2022 it was "points divided by 39.2" and I haven't yet arrived at the formula for computing the denominator FINAL EDIT: Ok, so it's just the average of ALL entries. So in theory if a bunch of people entered and scored 0 one month your guesses would be disproportionately valuable for the next 6 tournaments. In summary: monthly score = your score / average of everybody's score ranking is based off of your monthly score + 90% of last monthly + 80% of previous monthly + 70% of six months ago + 60% of 8 months ago + 50% of 10 months ago
  12. Hoshotakamoto

    GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

    74 points for Sakura, holy moly. Looks like I got my entry counted after all
  13. Hoshotakamoto

    GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

    I'm just glad they had my back on Oho > Azumaryu. Even if I was completely blindsided by the preservation of Ichiyamamoto's top division spot in the process.
  14. Hoshotakamoto

    GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

    Fairly certain GTB is going to mark me kyujo. Y (2) O1 (4) O2 (2) S (4) K (4) M1 (2 - flipped) M2 (4) M3 (2 - Meisei over Kiribayama) M4 (2 - Kiribayama under Meisei) M5 (4) M6 (2 - flipped) M7 (4) M8 (1 - Chiyoshoma underpromoted) M9 (2 - Chiyoshoma vs Wakabro) M10 (1 - Shimanoumi underdemoted) M11 (1 - Myogiryu underdemoted) M12 (0) M13 (2 - flipped) M14 (2 - flipped) M15 (4) M16 (2 - Kagayaki vs Kotokuzan) M17 (0) total 51
  15. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    I maintain a running first-draft of GTB every day (and yes, I had Chiyoarashi in Makushita all the way up until he knocked off the 2 guys that were still in the running for a promotion, predicated on my assumption that Chiyonoo, Mitoryu, Asanoyama, and Shiden were gone), and it's not a huge mystery what's happening along the borderline. Obviously I disagree with some of their decisions, e.g. bringing up Ichinojo at the expense of Ikioi, and if they bring up Azumaryu over Oho I think that is equally insane. But for the most part the exchange matches on day 15 seem crystal clear in their intent and they seem logical. Not knowing that Mitoryu was apparently sticking around (?) the match between Chiyoarashi and Kairyu made perfect sense because even though 6-9 at J13 is a rotten performance, it is probably better than a 50/50 outcome at Ms4. When you talk about elements of luck, you talk about things like having a perfect season in college basketball, or a 15-0 juryo performance taking place. There is no guarantee when the next one of those things will happen. However other things like the makushita yusho are usually not left up to luck, just like we always know the NCAA tournament will have a champion. There are not a bunch of "moving parts" in the NCAA tournament the way that there might be in determining which teams are worthy of a 1-seed pre-tournament, and generally entering day 15 there isn't a lot of mystery about who is in the clear and who still has a chance to steal a promotion. That's why the exchange matches, quite often, remove all of the luck and give you a clear who's in and who's out, with the only moving parts being whether or not someone is going to retire early enough to open up a spot on the banzuke.
  16. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    Also you cannot say it's "always" down to getting lucky when the element of luck is removed by head to head, decisive matches. The exchange juryo/makuuchi bouts at the end of November, for example - there is no room for debate over what the intent was in having those particular matchups.
  17. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    I'll stand by my assertion that they miscalculated if he gets demoted no matter what. The overwhelming majority of cases on days 14-15 are clearly meant to determine if one guy takes the other guy's place. Kairyu vs Chiyoarashi on day 15 is an especially bitter pill to swallow if there was no intent to let either man appear in Juryo regardless of the outcome. To me at the time, with 4 names crossed off my list (erroneously or not), it seemed clear that the intent was 1 goes up, 1 stays down. Maybe it was all a contingency plan in case Hidenoumi was going to get forced into retirement. We'll see (that is, we'll see if they really did set it up for both competitors to fail).
  18. Hoshotakamoto

    GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

    I mostly submitted mine here on account of the fact that I expect my listing to go kyujo and in the event that the entry was unexpectedly competitive this would be the only evidence of it.
  19. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    What were some other recent examples? If someone lost their exchange bout and still got promoted, that is less interesting to me, but I wonder who won it and got the shaft. Seems like a severe miscalculation by the organizers if and when it happened. Based on my recentish observation I don't recall any such miscalculations.
  20. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    I hope it was clear that I was opening the site and responding to notifications from the last time I logged in, 4 weeks ago. If my facts are wrong, so be it - I think I adequately demonstrated the reasoning I applied to the discussion in January based on the pertinent information I had collected at the time.
  21. Hoshotakamoto

    GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

    I am intending to eventually replace my picks with a computer generated lineup but I didn't make any headway on it in the past 2 months. I was desperately pushing buttons at 17:59 GMT to try and get these submitted and had to fall back on an email submission so I don't know if anything will be official for me this month. Also these are my least favorite picks in 4 outings to date - I'm not willing to defend basically any of them (except Oho > Azumaryu). Terunofuji (Ye 11-4) Y --- Shodai (Ow 6-9) O1 Takakeisho (Oe 1-3-11) --- O2 Mitakeumi (Se 13-2 Y) Wakatakakage (M1e 9-6) S Abi (M6w 12-3) Takanosho (Sw 7-8) K Hoshoryu (M6e 11-4) Ura (M2e 8-7) M1 Daieisho (Kw 7-8) Ichinojo (M2w 8-7) M2 Tamawashi (M3e 8-7) Onosho (M5e 10-5) M3 Kiribayama (M1w 6-9) Meisei (Ke 5-10) M4 Endo (M3w 7-8) Takarafuji (M7w 9-6) M5 Ishiura (M12e 11-4) Kotonowaka (M14e 11-4) M6 Hokutofuji (M4w 6-9) Takayasu (M7e kosho) M7 Okinoumi (M4e 4-11) Sadanoumi (M11e 8-7) M8 Wakamotoharu (M15e 9-6) Tobizaru (M8w 6-9) M9 Chiyoshoma (M5w 4-11) Aoiyama (M16e 8-7) M10 Kotoeko (M17e 8-7) Terutsuyoshi (M11w 7-8) M11 Chiyotairyu (M12w 7-8) Myogiryu (M10e 5-8-2) M12 Shimanoumi (M9w 5-6-4) Chiyonokuni (M9e 4-11) M13 Chiyomaru (M13e 7-8) Yutakayama (M13w 6-9) M14 Kotoshoho (J2w 11-4 Y) Akua (M10w 4-11) M15 Tochinoshin (M15w 7-8) Nishikigi (J2e 9-6) M16 Kagayaki (J1e 8-7) Kotokuzan (J4w 10-5) M17 Oho (M18e 7-8)
  22. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    Shiden, Asanoyama, Mitoryu, and Chiyonoo. If they do some contortions to keep Shiden and/or Mitoryu in the Juryo Banzuke I don't think that changes the fact that Chiyoarashi was blatantly set up with 2 survival matches that he won. If we can have an empty "Takagenji" slot on the banzuke maybe they can do the opposite as needed for the cases I mentioned.
  23. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    What else I might be trying to say? I was saying that Chiyoarashi and Kotoyusho are both safe.
  24. Hoshotakamoto

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Seemed clear to me that Chiyoarashi slammed the door shut on Kairyu and Tochimaru and left it open for himself and Kotoyusho.
  25. Hoshotakamoto

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    J13w Chiyoarashi spending days 14 and 15 fighting his way back in pretty much settled the question of whether or not J13e Kotoyusho was safe.