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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. 40 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

    Not really. They did not have a lot of good demotion candidates, and no one forced the issue with a very strong performance. So one to replace Kakuryu due to his retirement, and the other to replace Yago for his 4-11 from J10. Bushozan loos to get a lucky break. Or it could be the other way around.

    Kotokuzan with a 4-3 at Ms3e is a perfectly respectable third promotion candidate, while it's unusual in recent years for a 7-8 J14 to get to stay. I'd be shocked if Yago were the one spared demotion, as that's never happened since Juryo has been at 28 rikishi.

  2. 33 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

    I'm disputing whether the shimpanbu even thinks ordinally in arranging the banzuke. For starters I highly doubt it because sanyaku shrinkages have happened before, and I don't see wrestlers stuck at the same rank celebrating a ordinal "promotion". It's always the listed rank number and not the ordinal that is celebrated. If you could show me proof to the contrary I will happily defer.

    Kaisei remained at M12w in November 2020 after going 7-8 in September, despite the san'yaku shrinking by one.

  3. 21 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

    So the question is, is the inverse true - that MK maegashira absolutely must be demoted? This banzuke might see a lot of lucky 7-8s held at the same rank just to make things easier, like in Rocks' joi prediction regarding the M4 pair.

    I mean, that happens all the time—Endo and Okinoumi being just the most recent example.

  4. 19 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    Tokisakae should be a few ranks ahead of that, ms3-4, though the covid crunch might cause things to go awry, and I'm not looking at the current density of rikishi that will end up there, just what the historical data is.

    Ms4e I'd guess, the last available slot. The two kyujo Ms1's will be dropping out, as will Shohoryu. At least 3 will be promoted to juryo, replaced by at least 2 demotees. 3 more slots will be occupied will be some combo of KK upper makushita or juryo demotions. That's 5 of the available 7, assuming the c-kyujo guys stay put. Last two should go to whichever of Murata/Kaisho is lower in the pecking order, and Tokisakae.

  5. 3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    The two rikishi in Makushita left back for matches with sekitori if needed on Days 14 and 15 if there were an odd number of sekitori were not needed Day 14, and they didn't have the same record (or perhaps already fought or were in the same heya?  I'm not bothering to check), so they wouldn't normally face each other and thus both were paired up into Juryo.

    Kotokuzan and Daishoho fought on day 1.

  6. 12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    The more dated counterexample of course would be Kyushu 2019, where Hokutofuji and Asanoyama had been exceedingly consistent the couple of basho before to force two extra komusubi slots, next to the incumbents Abi and Endo who were scraping minimal KKs. But Hokutofuji was 9-6 at M1 (and 7-8 at K the basho before that) and Asanoyama was 10-5 at M2; Asanoyama was probably the beneficiary of some banzuke symmetry used in favour of Hokutofuji. 

    The key point about this example is that Hokutofuji was M1e and so had to be promoted. Asanoyama had a better numerical promotion case than Hokutofuji, so he came along for the ride.

  7. 15 minutes ago, Sven H. said:

    These posts are tremendous. Some of my favorite things to read not just about sumo, but in general.

    Question, is 11-4 (Wakatakakage) or 10-5 (WTK or Hokutofuji) enough to "force" another komusubi slot for an M2 regardless of what happens with current sanyaku? Or even at those records it is entirely dependent on what happens around them?

    Based on Daieiesho's fate after November, 10-5 pretty clearly won't do it these days. No idea if 11-4 would, but guessing no?