Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito


  1. 13 hours ago, Tochinofuji said:

    As much as I'd like to see a swift return to makuuchi happen for Wakatakakage, I think we're likely to see at least one more Juryo basho for him. Though hope I'll be proven wrong on that count! 

    After his loss today, I don't think even winning out would do it, unless there's carnage in both makuuchi and juryo. 12-3 from J10 isn't a real promotion claim, so he'd only go up if there's someone they can't keep in makuuchi and there are no better candidates for the spot.

    • Like 1

  2. 20 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    You can work it out for yourself

    I don't know how to set it out properly, but for instance:

    Makunouchi ->Juryo

    Almost certainly down: Endo, Kitanowaka, Shimazuumi

    Needs 2 wins: Daiamami, Myogiryu

    Needs 1 win: Hokutofuji, Roga, Churanoumi, Ryuden

     

    Juryo->Makunouchi

    Needs 1 win: Mitoryu

    Needs 2 wins: Tokihayate, Daishoho

    Needs 3 wins: Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Oshoma

    Needs 4 wins: Shirokuma, Asakoryu

    I think that's right

    I don't have time to run the thread this basho, but this looks right to me. A little early for san'yaku turnover, but Nishikigi is out and atm Onosato would take his spot. Three vacancies opening up in Juryo: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima. Onokatsu is coming up, Chiyomaru and Kazekeno would join him with a win but are eliminated with a loss, Kayo, Tsukahara, and Nabatame still in contention.


  3. 3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

    ... I hadn't even noticed he was put against Kotoeko, that definitely helped it out. -Another- win would make an arguably bigger difference though.

    He could still end up as high as 2nd in the promotion queue with a 4-3, or as low as 7th with a 5-2, depending on other results. All the contenders except him are in action tomorrow, so we should have a better sense. Kazekeno would be out with a loss of course, as would Tenshoho and Yuma. Chiyomaru and Onokatsu would be all but certain to go up with a win. Then there's Kayo and Nabatame.


  4. 8 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    That's what I have. I'm assuming that Wakamotoharu dropping to 5-4 keeps him lined up for a match with Kiri. Hoshoryu and Daieisho might have a better chance of getting broken with Daieisho having a losing record, but if that happens, presumably we have Hoshoryu and Takakeisho against the leaders. (I know Kotonowaka makes sense, but I also have Shonannoumi getting bumped up, and I don't think they're going to yeet him all the way up to Hoshoryu. If it's Takakeisho and Kotonowaka against Takerufuji and Onosato, then I think Abi gets Shonannoumi and Hoshoryu stays in against Daieisho.)

    I like it. Then I think Hosh and Koto would be free on day 12, and then they can reassess what they need to do down the stretch, though we may see the schedule delayed for more than just day 15.

    • Like 1

  5. 18 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

    Kitanowaka brings an excellent body, but I'm really struggling to name a single other part of his sumo that I would consider (close to) makuuchi-average at this point. And that assessment isn't just based on his less than stellar top division record so far; even in juryo I'm frequently surprised how many different ways his opponents are capable of finding to defeat him. It kind of feels like he's been around forever (two straight years in juryo tends to lead to that impression, at least for me), but at the same time it feels like he hasn't slowly worked his way up to makuuchi like, say, Churanoumi, and rather just fluked in via his physical tools. At 23 he's still young, but I'm honestly starting to wonder if the action in makuuchi just might be a little too fast for him. If so, that's something he might not ever overcome.

    I feel like his yotsu skills are on the stronger side, but I don't have a lot of confidence in my own "eye test."


  6. 35 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:
    • Hakuoho
      • This was reminiscent of his match against Akua, eh @Reonito? I get that he's had more to think about these last few months, but going "here's my leg" to Akua and "here's my neck" to Aoiyama almost back to back is a whole new level of incompetence/negligence. He can still beat most people head-on, but damnit, he's gotta stop letting one-trick-ponies getting their track in!
    • Kitanowaka
      • ...why? People who watch juryo know that he's much better than this. There's no obvious injury, I hope he steps it up as he'd be a great permanent addition to makuuchi's ranks.

    I guess Terunofuji's 10-5 in Juryo, sandwiched between his 13-2 Y in J and M, gives me some hope that Hakuoho is just having an off tournament; there are surely plenty of potential reasons for that.

    Kitanowaka's struggles in Makuuchi sort of remind me of Kototebakari's in Ms joi; both have great skills and good size, but seem to lack a bit of physicality.


  7. 6 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

    What about Tobizaru and Hiradoumi? By my reckoning, they would have had to go down to M4W to give Terunofuji a full schedule (assuming no upstarts from lower down to deal with). That puts them in the joi, doesn't it?

    The over-promotions were mainly those in the K-M3 zone rather than purely sanyaku. Like Oho, whose 3-4 is 3 wins better than I expected of him, tbh. He'll have an 'easier' 2nd week, too, and might even KK.

     

    When I posted yesterday, they were 3-3...


  8. 22 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

    Abi's good start is unusual because Komusubi usually have a very tough early schedule.

    And he'll be done facing sanyaku tomorrow, with either a 6-1 or a 5-2 record heading into what should be a much easier second week!


  9. 4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    I see after one basho of sanyaku dominance leading to a huge overpromotion to sanyaku, we're back to the new normal. 

    The huge overpromotion was just Nishikigi, right? Terunofuji shouldn't have entered, Daieisho only started fighting on day 4 for some reason, and I don't know what's up with Kirishima, but the rest of the sanyaku is doing quite well, to the extent that Atamifuji has the only winning record among the joi maegashira.


  10. 2 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

    When I checked the sumodb results today, I couldn't believe that the yokozuna lost by yorikiri. I was expecting a fusen loss! (Thinkingindepth...)

    Yesterday's conversation with Isegahama: "You're not finishing this tournament, but we need to make it look good. Don't put up too much resistance, and visibly flex your knee in pain at the end of the bout."

    • Haha 4

  11. 33 minutes ago, Benihana said:

    Terunofuji is now at 19 kinboshi. And he "achieved" that with only 126 bouts. Since Kiribayama botched his run, there seems no short term relief in sight. Poor Teru and poor NHK treasurer.

    I think that passes Kisenosato, but he managed it in about three times fewer bouts.

    • Haha 1

  12. 1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

    It seems like there are plenty of reasons for the crowd to show up a little early and watch the top of Makushita this basho.

    It actually feels a lot less exciting than when we had the big prospects and the sekitori comebacks making their way through there on a regular basis.

    • Like 1

  13. 8 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

    Walking fusenpai Shimanoumi

    He's done the math on exactly how many wins he needs to keep his salary (4, I think) and he'll expend the minimum amount of effort to collect them when the matchups are in his favor.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

  14. 8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

    Please. He'd need the Saudis to bankroll it or something, because nobody in Japan would touch a Hakuho-fronted sumo venture with the proverbial ten foot pole at this point, and his own money will be barely enough to run it at "indy wrestling fed" levels, playing to audiences in the hundreds, not thousands. I'm sure Hakuoho, Tenshoho et al. have always dreamed of that kind of opportunity.

    Besides, after the initial rush of existing fighters desperate for a payday, what's going to be his recruiting pitch for future talent? "I do even less about physical abuse than the organization that dumped me!"?

    Guys this is getting uncomfortably close the 4/1 post I've been drafting (Laughing...)


  15. 2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

    The Kyokai brass were highly suspicious that Hakuho would prove troublesome as oyakata, and they made him sign that pledge to express their reservations in the most public manner possible. Inside of just three years, Hakuho managed to prove them spectacularly correct.

    I guess my question, without being privy to the details of the investigation, is this: did Hakuho in fact prove himself to be troublesome as oyakata, beyond what we've regularly seen in other heya in recent years? I am honestly asking, as it hasn't been clear to me from reading what's been made public exactly what about the situation and his management of it has been so egregious as to demand the response we've seen. (Obviously, Hokuseiho's actions were completely beyond the pale and his punishment was warranted). I am fully prepared to accept an explanation as to why closing the heya is the appropriate response, but so far it hasn't been clear to me why demotion in elder rank, loss of salary, and a warning to do better, as we've seen in other recent cases, wasn't sufficient here.

    • Like 2

  16. 7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    Another fun makushita storyline. Tsukahara has been in the extended promotion zone for 25 of the last 28 basho. Now at ms4 and with no "monsters" lurking this could be his big opportunity. He has the size and a fearsome oshi attack... but then again he had those advantages five years ago...

    The guy certainly had the kind of start that would make you pay attention (Jk 6-1 Y, Jd 7-0 Y, only loss to Kotoshoho, avenged in Jk playoff and again in Jd), reached upper Ms in 9 basho, then hit a wall.