Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    Not sure what logic they used to break the tie as Ichiyamamoto-Ura-Kinbozan. The placements of Shodai and Atamifuji deviate pretty strongly from what they've done with the joi the last two banzuke. And I guess Churanoumi splitting Ryuden and Aonishiki is one of those things where there were two solutions that made sense and they ended up going with a much less sensible third one that splits the difference. –17 for me on just these guesses.

  10. Posted · Edited by Jakusotsu

    12 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    The main issue with anyone having a perfect match to the Kyokai's banzuke is that there is invariably something that makes us collectively scratch our heads and wonder why they decided that way.  While there tend to be a few players who might get that right, they'll generally have plenty of differences elsewhere because their logic is probably unsound in general to have come up with the weirdness.  I'm inclined to believe that they're intentionally making some weird choices just as a way of showing who's boss.

    755

  11. Posted

    1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    Oh, for sure. The quoted message said "mathematically", so I went with the technical answer. It's also a lot easier to describe a number of possibilities in terms of factorials; I started to talk about limitations like no promotions for losing records, but then I was like... nah, lazy.

    If you want a more realistic but still very conservative upper bound for the current GTB, the top 4 ranks are locked. That leaves 38 slots to fill. I don't think there are more than 4 remotely plausible candidates for any of them, so assuming these are independent (which they aren't), that's 4^38 = 2^76 ~ 10^23. That the committee might put someone from outside the plausible 4 in a couple of slots is more than made up for by the fact that most slots have only one or two plausible choices. I'm not sure there were any where I seriously considered more than 3 options...

  12. Posted

    30 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    Mathematically it would be at least 42!, since technically anyone could go anywhere. That's assuming we can determine exactly which 42 guys will be in the division, which isn't the case this time (Shirokuma vs. Tamashoho). If we remove the single yokozuna from that equation, since his position is truly locked, it's 41!. Assume the ozeki as well, and it's 39!.

    This is not a useful calculation in for thinking about GTB in practice though. For anyone of reasonable skill on a typical banzuke (excluding ones where sanyaku number is in doubt), there are about 15-20 slots that are completely nailed down. For the remaining (say) 25 there are usually only a couple of choices, and they're not independent (if guy A goes to 4W, guy B goes to 5E, and vice versa). Thinking about it as the odds of getting (say) 12 coin flips right (which is 1 in 4096) probably gets a lot closer to reality. Then throw in one or two official choices each time that deviate from all logic and are therefore much harder to guess than 50:50. The game has had something like 150 editions, with say 100 players on average, so that's 15,000 guesses. We've had scores as high as 78 (I think that's the top), one or two flips away from perfection, which makes sense under this very crude calculation but not if anyone could really go anywhere.

    • Like 2

  15. Posted

    5 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    The pro-chaos faction.

    True fact: In a Venn diagram, the circle for Shimanoumi voters is fully enclosed by the circle for Shodai voters.

    Hey, leave my boy alone! Shodai is a lovable lug who made Ozeki and has an Emperor's cup to his name. Shimanoumi's only "achievement" is hanging on to a sekitori rank despite repeatedly posting results that would have sent anyone else to Makushita.

    • Haha 1

  17. Posted

    2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    I don't know if it's always been this way, but at the moment, I'd expect a run is more likely to lead to promotion if the mega-performance yusho comes in the last basho rather than the second. Hype as a tiebreaker.

    For sure, and they like to see an upward trajectory across the 3 basho, but still, 10-5, 14-1 Y, 10-5 seems sufficient. Of course, he made this largely academic by going 13-2 D in the next basho.

  21. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

    Neither of those were a Yusho.

    Fair enough, we'll see if we ever get a proper test. I'd expect YY would do it, but not sure about anything less. And no one has ever gone YY below Ozeki.

  23. Posted

    3 hours ago, Octofuji said:

    Looking at all M1-M4s who got 33+ wins, 7 out of 12 became Ozeki.

    In the first 3 basho, Wakahanada was unlucky enough to go from M4 to M3 after his 9-6, and then only to K after his 10-5, and no one has been promoted in the modern era either straight from K or without 2 san'yaku basho in the run. But I don't have an explanation for why his second (overlapping) run didn't succeed, with 34/3 no less. Takanosato is ruled out by not hitting double digits in the third basho. So it's really 7 of 10 (everyone except Takanohana, Wakanohana, and Kotomitsuki). I may or may not have written a couple thousand words about Ozeki promotions a few years ago (Beingninja...)

    • Thanks 1

  25. Posted

    11 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

    How about 3 Sekiwakes to round things up tidily and keep a minimal 8 man sanyaku? Impossible? Seems possible record-wise and Banzuke-luck wise. And Gounoyama-Abi as Komusubi? Wish I had the kintamas to go with that, but if it doesn't happen..

    Gonoyama at K is already a bit of a stretch...