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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. 46 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    Endo gets dinked down to J2W mathematically, and Daishoho squeaks into makuuchi, as you say. Two rank difference. Only reason to save Endo is that Daishoho did his work from halfway down in juryo. I don't think that happens with a two rank difference. Calling Endo a definite demotion seems correct. He got pretty lucky last time, and they've shown less of a predilection for being kind to the guys in the higher division of late, so he probably gets underdemoted to J1E and gets a chance to take his spot back next time. (Given how he's looked physically, this might be doing him a favor.)

    Yeah, only one guy has survived in a similar position in the past 65 years, and they would have had to pull up an 8-7 J4 to force him down.

  2. On 21/03/2024 at 15:59, Kintamayama said:
    Chiyomaru, cuddly one who dropped to Makushita after 11 consecutive years as a sekitori, is 3-3 at Makushita 1E.

    hoshi_kuro.gifOunokatsu, new Mongolian, amateur Yokozuna, started the Kyushu 2023 basho at Makushita tsukedashi 15 (the last one before the rule change) - is 5-2 and kachikoshi at Makushita 2W. Highest career rank.

    Kayou is 3-3 at Makushita 3W. Started off at Sandanme 90 tsukedashi in May 2022. 

    Nabatame is 4-2 and kachikoshi at Makushita 5W.  Half Thai. Highest career rank.

    Chiyomaru and Onokatsu will graduate from this list, Kayo and Nabatame uncertain.

  3. Day 14

    San'yaku demotion queue: Nishikigi, Daieisho.

    Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Onosato, Atamifuji, Gonoyama.

    S1e Daieisho (6-8) will vacate Sekiwake and must beat Hiradoumi avoid opening up a second Komusubi slot. Abi will move up to join S1w Wakamotoharu (8-6) at Sekiwake.

    If only one slot is open, it's between Asanoyama and Onosato. If Daieisho loses, Asanoyama has Komusubi sewn up, and the second slot is between Onosato and Atamifuji. I've left Gonoyama in the queue, but I don't see a scenario in which he is promoted.

  4. Day 14

    Makuuchi demotion queue: Shimazuumi, Kitanowaka, EndoDaiamami, Myogiryu.

    Juryo promotion queue: Mitoryu, Oshoma, Tokihayate, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Daishoho.

    Despite his 3 wins in a row (one by a henka and one by a very iffy call), I've moved Endo into the definite demotion category because the winner of Tomokaze v. Daishoho is guaranteed the slimmest numerical promotion case. Maybe this isn't 100%? Tokihayate is guaranteed promotion with a win over Shirokuma, while everyone else needs help. Daiamami and Myogiryu would be safe if they win, and could escape even with losses.

    • Like 1

  5. Day 14

    Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Akua, Chiyosakae, Hakuyozan.

    Makushita promotion queue: KazekenoOnokatsu, Chiyomaru, Kayo or Tsukahara with a win, Nabatame with a win.

    Three rock-solid openings, three rock-solid promotions. Three incumbents on the bubble, three contenders with a chance. Tomorrow, it's Tsukahara v. Akua and Nabatame v. Chiosakae. Hakuyozan fights already MK Tamashoho; maybe that means he's not really considered endangered? Most likely, if both Makushita guys win, Kayo and Tsukahara go up at the expense of Akua and Chiyosakae, Hakuyozan escapes even with a loss, and Nabatame just misses out. If both lose, we just have the three obvious exchanges, with Kayo missing out. If only Nabatame wins, I think the slot he opens would go to Kayo. If only Tsukahara wins, he may get the last slot over Kayo. We may not get full clarity until the promotions are actually announced on Wednesday.

  6. 3 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

    Indeed. Maybe it would be strong enough to demote marginal cases who've stayed in juryo more often than not lately (computing to J15 or 16) - Akua, Tsushimanada and Chiyosakae with two losses, in this case.

    I'm guessing they're going to pair Tsukahara with whoever is the most endangered going into senshuraku and make it a de facto exchange bout, unless all three guys win tomorrow and it becomes moot.

    Yeah, the day 15 pairings will tell us a fair bit about their thinking, although we've seen what we all thought were exchange bouts, but the loser got to stay over promoting the winner anyway.

  7. 35 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    I actually thought about this for a second before remembering Ura was 6-7, not 7-6. Part of me wants to see it, but odds are it would be a blowout.

    I figure Choo Choo Takeru is gonna get Takakeisho since the ol' Battle Hamster got his KK, at least if Asanoyama wins tonight and the yusho is still up for grabs. if it's clinched, they might still do it, since it puts the champ in the final match of the tournament, but I imagine he'll get Atami if Atami wins tonight. I suppose Gonoyama would also work if he's 10-4, but it's such an odd situation, I'm not sure how they would feel about putting the definite champ in a mid-rank matchup.

    He can't fight Atami, so if Asanoyama were to win, a 7-7 Ura with a Komusubi promotion on the line could be the best option, no? If it's clinched, I think they include him in the final 3 bouts, as at that point ceremony takes precedence over results.

  8. 40 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

    The tabloids and their YT reports are heating up with the talk that Tochikamiyama was bullied by Tochimusashi and fled to his parents, having the intai papers handed in by the oyakata, who tries to hide it all. o

    We'll see if the biggest criminal in the NSK gets away with it again.

    Soon we'll have everyone in one big heya...

    • Haha 5

  9. 15 minutes ago, Sakura said:

    I agree. The numbers just represent a mathematical safety line. We've seen plenty of situations where having a demotable record doesn't guarantee demotion and I'm happy to wager that everyone with 1 win required is already safe.

    I am not so sure. If Chiyomaru wins tomorrow, that's the 3 obvious demotions spoken for. If any of endangered quintet loses out, and Kayo and/or Tsukahara win, are they definitely out of luck?

  10. 10 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

    I doubt they'd let him compete with that, and if it turns out to be true we'd have another scandal at hand.

    Not if they don't test ... no idea what the protocols are in Japan in general and in sumo in particular these days.

  11. Day 13

    San'yaku demotion queue: Nishikigi, Daieisho.

    Promotion queue: Asanoyama, Atamifuji, Onosato, Ura, Gonoyama.

    S1e Daieisho (5-8) will vacate Sekiwake and must win out to avoid opening up a second Komusubi slot. Abi will move up. S1w Wakamotoharu (7-6) needs one more win to stay Sekiwake.

    • Thanks 1

  12. Day 13

    Juryo demotion queue: Hokuseiho, Kotoeko, Kitaharima, Akua, Shimanoumi, Chiyosakae, Tsushimanada, Hakuyozan.

    Makushita promotion queue: KazekenoOnokatsu, Chiyomaru with a win, Kayo with a win/Tsukahara with a win, Nabatame with a win, Tsukahara with a loss, Nabatame with a loss.

    Kitaharima may have a tiny chance of survival if all the promotion contenders lose their final bouts—would a 4-3 Ms4w push him down for sure, after what they did last time? On Day 14, Chiyomaru fights Akua, and Kayo has Chiyosakae. A victory by Chiyomaru would send him up and make Kitaharima's demotion absolutely certain, as would a win by Kayo. Kayo's fate, though, would depend on other results, especially Tsukahara's, who is presumably being reserved for a potential exchange bout on senshuraku, along with Nabatame. Each of the "bubble" quintet in Juryo would be safe with a win, and I'll leave for later speculation as to which promotion cases might be good enough to push any of them down if they lose out; Tsushimanada and Hakuyozan go head-to-head tomorrow so one is guaranteed safety.

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  13. 1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    I don't know if 10-5 at M1W is really an edge case, though. Nine wins is, but ten seems like a gimme for an extra K slot. Atamifuji at 10-5 would create a much bigger headache, especially if Ura jams himself into the rank as well.

    Now watch them all go MK.

    • Haha 1

  14. 13 minutes ago, Oskanohana said:

    What I'd really like to see is both Kitaharima and Chiyosakae going 6-9, Chiyomaru, Kazekeno and Kayo losing, so we'd have only 3 "possible" promotions and 2 surefire demotions (Hokuseiho and Kotoeko). Would they dare to pass the dreaded Ms5 line to look for promotions? Would they split the J14's? Would they keep them both in juryo?

    I guess based on what they did last time, they'd bring up Tsukahara and Nabatame and keep Kitaharima? It was bad enough to make Chiyosakae the first 6-9 14e to stay; keeping him with the same score at 14w would be a bit much. Then again, I'm guessing they'll set up day 14/15 matches to avoid this sort of predicament.

  15. 8 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

    If Takakeisho gets his eight and Daieisho falls to Komisubi, can Abi go up to Sekiwake  with just 8 or 9 wins as there always has to be 2 Sekiwake


    Yes, of course. You need 11 wins at K to force an extra S slot, but any KK will do if there's one that needs to be filled. In fact, they've gone as low as 8-7 M4 to fill a vacant S slot.

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