Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito


  1. 1 hour ago, Morty said:

    Hoshoryu being on a Tsuna run seems like the softest run of all time. His only yusho was a year and a half ago, and since then he has only got more than ten wins twice, both for jun-yushos. The basho before last he went 8-7. I thought it was supposed to be two yusho or yusho equivalents in a row, not J-Y. What am I missing here, how is a tsuna run justified at this time?

    Not all J are the same. If he tied for J at 11-4 while Kotozakura ran away with the title, we wouldn't be having this discussion, but13-2 J losing to the champion on the last day sure counts as an equivalent ... kind of like the 14-1 J that got Terunofuji the rope. JSA and YDC certainly seem to think so. Hoshoryu needs a yusho for sure, but 13-2 Y or better is a stone-cold promotion. I can see them asking for more if it's 12-3. And you can look at someone like Kakuryu who had an undistinguished stint at Ozeki before putting together his run.


  2. On 22/12/2024 at 16:33, Sumo Spiffy said:

    How the hell did Kayo end up ahead of Shiden? That looks like the drunken typo I was talking about in the GTB thread.

    Right? 3w Kayo goes up two ranks on 8-7, 6w Shiden (who we all thought was a dark horse candidate to replace Tokihayate) goes up 4.5 on 10-5. Unnecessary overpromotion and underdemotion, given that Shiden computes a full rank ahead. People have speculated there's a "Juryo joi" that gets slight preference, but this is a tiebreaker thing at best.

    • Like 1

  3. 26 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

    I suspect there will be a lot of entries along that general line, e.g. if I didn't miss anything in @Sumo Spiffy's video, we've got 38 slots in common (only Se/w and M11w/M12e flipped).

    I didn't have those flips, but I did push Nishikifuji up to 16w in the end. The fact that it's Nishikifuji weighed into that call ;-) I debated pushing up the M4's but in the end didn't see a way to do it without creating either under-promotions and over-demotions or a bit split between Churanoumi and Oshoma.


  4. 20 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

    That schedule looks beyond ridiculous. :-S

    I guess the factors here are that the absences above him placed Ms31w Shiba in the top half of the bracket, and then Ura couldn't face him in regulation because they're both from Kise beya...


  5. 5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    Yoshikaze's is notable in that his low rank was not due to having failed to compete in previous tournaments.  It's not all that strange that Goeido and WTK could manage it given they didn't get to M14e by bad performances on the dohyo, while that was why Yoshikaze was that low.  I particularly remember his 5-10 the previous basho really stinging me in my games performance then.  The 8-7 the basho before that was reasonable when returning from injury at a lower rank, but that 5-10 seemed so out of character; I can only imagine he was still suffering what whatever caused the withdraw a couple basho before, and then starting the next basho was back to full strength.

    Yoshikaze's 33/3 is the most unlikely for sure, and the only one to date at any set of ranks in the top division for someone who never reached ozeki (and wasn't ever even in that conversation, unlike WTK)


  6. As I recall from an earlier project, Yoshikaze is the only wrestler since 1958 to record 33/3 while in Makuuchi without reaching Ozeki at any point in his career. We'll see if Wakatakakage becomes the second...


  7. 1 hour ago, Ack! said:

    My mistake: I meant to say the win/loss difference difference math.  The rank difference math is intuitive, but the win/loss difference math I cannot fathom.  Any explanation of that would be appreciated.

    Literally just subtract wins from losses. So 4-3 is +1, 5-2 is +3, etc. 5-10 is –5. As I said, this may not predict movement within makushita, but seems to predict the exchanges...

    • Like 1

  8. 1 hour ago, Ack! said:

    I wonder if someone could explain the rank difference math Asashosakari used in his excellent analysis above? I struggle with finding a way to compare 15-bout results against 7-bout results, so this would be very helpful 

    I believe he's just taking the difference between wins and losses for both 15-bout results and 7-bout results, using this difference as the expected number of ranks moved down/up, and essentially treating Ms1-Ms5 as though they were J15-J19 for this specific purpose.

    I don't think this method would predict the relative ranking of J and Ms rikishi who end up in Makushita, or even the movements within upper Makushita, though I haven't done the analysis.

    • Like 1

  9. 5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

    There is not enough basho in a year to make all of this happen. 

    Just for the sake of argument: Hoshoryu beats Kotozakura in a playoff in January, both get promoted to Y. Onosato wins two consecutive basho sometime after January. WTK gets 11 in January, 12 in March, gets promoted to O. Takerufuji gets to upper maegashira in March, san'yaku in May, his run is May-July-Sept with a month to play with. I'm not doing Kirishima. Everyone else eats a lot of losses.


  10. 1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

    I mean, it's essentially part of the accepted historical record that the pre-Futahaguro YDCs were very open to considering information that extended beyond the results of two tournaments, so it's somewhat pointless to look at those cases like that. Taking three consecutive tournaments as a "run" was perfectly normal, but it didn't even stop there:

    My only reason to bring any of this up was to note that the pre-1988 era doesn't provide any sort of meaningful information as to what they might do now, for the reasons you detail.

    • Like 1

  11. 1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

    That was 12-3Y, 13-2J, but I take your point. His promotion was not triggered by consecutive yusho, nor was Chiyonofuji's or Onokuni's.

    You're right, I was one row off on the query—it was Onokuni who was promoted 4 months later with 12-3 J, 13-2 J, so no yusho in the two basho pre-promotion, but he did have one, and a zensho at that, immediately before that. He only won one more the rest of his career, so retired with two. Futahaguro is the only Yokozuna who never won a tournament; not sure if there were any with exactly one yusho.

    This was the last promotion before they tightened it to consecutive yusho.


  12. The real issue is that we just don't have enough data for the current era. Before 1988, there was nothing unusual about a 12-3 J 13-2 J promotion (Hokutoumi, the current chair), and there were even cases like 10-5 13-2 D (Tamanoumi). The 8 promotions from 1990 (Asahifuji) through 2012 (Harumafuji) were all consecutive yusho, and I noted some of the most extreme misses during this period above. Since 2012, we've had only 3 promotions, also as detailed above. The closest misses since then are Kisenosato's consecutive 13-2 J in 2016, when they were waiting for him to finally win a yusho, and, if we insist on having a yusho as part of the run, Takakeisho's 12-3 J 13-2 Y in 2020 and 12-3 D 12-3 Y in 2022. One might conclude from this that the current standard is 26 wins over two basho with at least one yusho and at least a jun-yusho in the other, which is why I wrote above that Hoshoryu likely needs a yusho with 13+ wins and Kotozakura a strong jun-yusho with 12+ wins in which he's in the race late in the basho, but we won't really know unless one or both of them put up big numbers in January and we get to see what the YDC and the JSA actually do.