Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. Posted

    1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

    "When small men begin to cast big shadows, it means the Sun is about to set."

    The version I know is: "That...such giant shadows are cast by such pygmies only shows how late in the day it has become". -Erwin Chargaff.

  2. Posted

    4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

    Aonishiki is advancing at the same pace as Takerufuji: 7-0, 7-0, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 - exactly one year after him. Takerufuji went from ms17e to ms6e, outside the promotion zone and thus needing one more basho as ms1w to become sekitori. Aonishiki is at ms17w and probably also will be put to ms6 for Aki.

    Aonishiki is now 20 and Takerufuji 25.

    He looked a little light in his one loss to Hitoshi; it'll be interesting to see how he fares against bigger guys. Given the rest of the records, I think he's likely to be in the promotion zone, Ms4/Ms5.

    • Like 2

  5. Posted

    1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

    I definitely think Tamashoho would be more likely to be chosen if they think Onosho is too far gone given the results and what I said above. 

    Yeah, E over W might not be enough to overcome J6 vs J10 ... but the whole thing might perplex them enough to save Onosho (Thinkingindepth...)

  6. Posted

    Junior san'yaku

    Sekiwake: Abi, Onosato, Kirishima, Takakeisho.

    Komusubi: Daieisho, Hiradoumi, maaaybe Takanosho.

    The only questions here concern any potential re-ordering of KK rikishi within a rank. I don't think any of us take the possibility of an extra slot being created for Takanosho very seriously.

  8. Posted

    Final Results

    Makuuchi demotion candidates:  Asanoyama, Nishikifuji, Chiyoshoma, Onosho, Takarafuji, Takayasu.

    Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu, Shirokuma, Kitanowaka, Shishi, Tamashoho.

    Onokatsu and Shirokuma will replace Asanoyama and Nishikifuji. Kitanowaka's score should be good enough to push down Chiyoshoma, though I'm not sure it's 100%. Either Shishi or Tamashoho could potentially go up if they don't want to set a post-kosho precedent of keeping a winless M5.

  13. Posted

    21 minutes ago, Oskanohana said:
    10 hours ago, Benihana said:

    I'd love to see a slomo of Shirokuma - Onokatsu...

    I saw it. I'd love for them to at least have a look at it but none of the judges seemed to think it was maybe even close. Talk about a blind spot.

    Torinaoshi would have been the right call, I think.

  16. Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

    If Juryo produces only 2 promotable candidates, would Onosho be safe? Would they replace him with a 12-3 Shishi, for example?

    Takayasu stays in no matter what, probably.

    See the post above. I'd guess 12-3 Shishi replaces Onosho, but maybe not if Chiyoshoma loses.

  17. Posted

    Makuuchi demotion candidates: Nishikifuji (3), Asanoyama (2), Chiyoshoma (2), Onosho (2), Takarafuji (1), Takayasu (1).

    Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (0), Tokihayate (1), Shirokuma (1), Kitanowaka (2), Shishi (2).

    Onokatsu is still the only Juryo man with a promotable record! Nishikifuji now seems impossible to keep, and I don't see any way they can keep Asanoyama. Tokihayate would be promoted with a win against Shirokuma, but would be make-koshi with a loss. Kitanowaka likewise needs a win to have any shot at promotion. In any case, only two rikishi can end up with promotable records, and at most five can be plausibly promoted (the next-best option would be a 9-6 J6, assuming Shimanoumi or Tamashoho win tomorrow). So I tend to agree with @Sakura that Takayasu will stay, and so will Takarafuji even with a loss. Likewise, Chiyoshoma should be fine with a win. What to do with Chiyoshoma if he loses, as well as with Onosho, isn't at all obvious, and will depend on the outcomes of the Day 15 Juryo bouts.

  18. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    Day 14:

    Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Chiyosakae (1), Tochitaikai (1).

    Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3).

    Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. We have two potential exchange bouts: Kotokuzan vs. Chiyosakae and Oshoumi vs. Tochitaikai. Both incumbents would reach safety with a win. Oshoumi's case with a win would likely be strong enough to push down Tochitaikai. Would Kotokuzan's be strong enough to push down Chiyosakae? The latter would actually be in slightly worse shape by the numbers than Tochitaikai, so it would be a bit odd to keep him. Of course, they could send down Chiyosakae, promote Oshoumi, and snub Kotokuzan. It'll be interesting to see what they decide to do.

  19. Posted

    21 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

    They could've easily matched Kotokuzan and Wakaikari, but went out of their way to pit the former (Ms3 3-3) against endangered Chiyosakae. There's no way that isn't an exchange bout, even if we didn't consider that a serious proposition before.

    As we've seen before, what the torikumi committee tees up and what the banzuke committee decides aren't always the same.

    • Like 1

  21. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    54 minutes ago, Sakura said:

    I've x'd out Oho, since we have a maximum of one slot and he can't pass Takanosho

    You are correct as usual; I noted that they were two wins apart but didn't check the ranks. Technically Takanosho is also guaranteed to finish ahead of Mitakeumi purely by the math, but the difference in rank could well put an 8-7 M2w ahead of a 10-5 M6e (not that it's likely that any of this will actually come into play).

  22. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    Junior san'yaku

    Sekiwake: Onosato, Takakeisho, winner of Day 14 bout between Kirishima and Abi, loser of that bout with a win on Day 15.

    Komusubi: Hiradoumi, loser of Kirishima vs. Abi with a loss on Day 15, Daieisho with one more win, one of Takanosho/Mitakeumi/Tobizaru/Oho if both Kirishima and Abi keep Sekiwake and Daieisho loses out.

     

  23. Posted

    Makuuchi demotion candidates: Nishikifuji (3), Asanoyama (2), Chiyoshoma (2), Onosho (2), Takarafuji (1), Nishikigi (1), Takayasu (1).

    Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (0), Tokihayate (1), Shorokuma (2), Kitanowaka (2), Shishi (3).

    Onokatsu finally became the first Juryo man with a promotable record, and with few promotion candidates able to pass him and no shortage of demotion candidates, he is set to make his Makuuchi debut at Aki. At the moment, he'd replace Nishikifuji, but the incumbent can improve his position vis-à-vis absent Asanoyama with one more win. I don't see any way they can keep Asanoyama, but everyone else could potentially stay if there's no reasonable candidate to replace them. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out down the stretch, and we're likely to see some mix of lucky escapes and unconventional promotions.

     

  24. Posted

    Day 13:

    Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Kayo (1), Aoiyama (1), Chiyosakae (1), Tochitaikai (1). Wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses.

    Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-3), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3).

    Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. Akua's loss to Aoiyama today, along with victories by Kayo and Tochitaikai, increased the likelihood of only two exchanges (Tohakuryu also removed himself from any possible danger). There is no relevant action in Makushita tomorrow, and none of the endangered Juryo rikishi are matched up head-to-head, so depending on how they fare tomorrow, and torikumi committee can decide which, if any, exchange bouts to set up for Day 15.

  25. Posted

    Day 12:

    Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Kayo (2), Aoiyama (2), Tochitaikai (2), Chiyosakae (1), Tohakuryu (1). Wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses.

    Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (6-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-2), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3).

    Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. We'll see if there are any other exchanges; tomorrow's crossover bout between Akua and Aoiyama is presumably the first of several that will determine that.

    • Like 1