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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. 53 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

    I really don't get this obsession with sanyaku/joi. The "guess" factor of the game would be much higher at M10 (2nd week), if only once or twice in a while.

    Should have never abandoned Hokutofuji, current kyujo notwithstanding...

    For those who effectively play "guess the torikumi", it gets time-consuming to map it out that far down ... there are games that emphasize the skill factor in inferring a (somewhat) predictable pattern, and there are games that emphasize the guess factor, and I personally prefer the former.

    • Like 1

  2. 46 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

    It seems rather unbeffiting of a game about the banzuke to not have a banzuke itself (for it's own rankings). Is there a specific reason(s) for this?

    This is a very good point, but I guess the ranking system is more fair in that it does not offer the Y/O protections against a bad performance...

  3. 36 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

    My probably futile makushita-joi attempt:

    Chiyosakae (J14e 6-9)      Ms1  Onokatsu (Ms8e 6-1)
    Tenshoho (J12w 5-10)       Ms2  Yuma (J13e 5-10)
    Kitadaichi (Ms6w 4-3)      Ms3  Tochimusashi (J14w 5-10)
    Kayo (Ms1e 3-4)            Ms4  Tsukahara (Ms11e 5-2)
    Kotodaigo (Ms11w 5-2)      Ms5  Nabatame (Ms12e 5-2)
    Kototebakari (Ms8w 4-3)    Ms6  Satorufuji (Ms3w 3-4)

    For some reason I had it in my head that Tochimusashi was borderline for Ms5, but looking at it again, this makes a lot of sense, I wonder if I mentally credited him with only 4 wins :-/

    6-1 +7
    Ms6w 4-3 +3.5 Ms3 Ms1e 3-4 -2.5
    J14e 6-9  ↓  Ms4 J12w 5-10  ↓ 
    J13e 5-10  ↓  Ms5 J14w

    Visual version of Makushita joi. Anyone have a better sense for the ordering and for which of the 7 guys I stacked at 5w will actually end up in the top 10?

  5. 29 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    For some reason I knew you wouldn't think they'd promote Takerufuji.  I fully understand the potential reasoning behind this, and definitely admit that it's well within the realm of possibility, just doesn't seem like it's close enough that the usual issues against promoting from deep in the division apply.  I admit I haven't done any research though.

    I've done a bit of research, though there aren't that many relevant precedents, and I'm also leaning this way. Atamifuji showed that they won't over-demote someone by even half a rank in favor of a deep promotion, but it's not clear that they'd save demotable records.

  6. 1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

    I'm not sure how Akua was in any danger, plus it's still kinda a toss-up between Chiyomaru and Chiyosakae for the last spot.  There's good reason to lean towards Chiyomaru getting it, but it's not as certain as it usually is. 

    Indeed, Akua was fully safe by the numbers. The arguments in favor of Chiyomaru are (1) as someone said, the optics of dropping 2.5 ranks with 5 wins are better than dropping half a rank with 6, (2) the only instance we have of a J14 surviving with 6 wins since Juryo went to 28 is the 2011 scandal banzuke (the guy went up to J10), while there is a 2005 precedent for J12e (5-10) -> J14w, and (3) I feel like they usually break ties of this sort by rank.

  7. 2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

    Winning Ms yusho from the lower half of the division is a deceptive result; you only get to beat a single top-half rikishi to do it (due to the way torikumi works in lower divisions).

    There was no reason to believe Satorufuji was even close to being the best rikishi in the division when he did it.

    Yeah, 3-4 in the next basho seems to be the median result for yusho winners from the lower half.

    • Like 1

  8. 10 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    Let me run them real quick.

    Thanks! Somehow I'm still out of reacts, an odd quirk of the forum. So this one is the second-luckiest of the past 8, and quite a lot luckier than what seems like the typical 30-ish banzuke. Which tracks with my first draft having things like 4-rank overpromotions.

    • Like 1

  9. 23 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    There are no intais, so unless I forgot something, the overall expectation is makuuchi wrestlers will enjoy 51.5 ranks of positive movement (overpromotions or underdemotions) among them.

    I don't know if you've been calculating these for recent basho; would be curious to know how this one compares.

  10. 2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    Yeah, it's designed to be helpful in the basics, but I'd rather educate than maximize my competitiveness.

    There are many more people who are interested in following projected banzuke movements than there are GTB players...

    • Like 2

  11. 1 minute ago, Leoben said:

    They're both a bit bigger, 10-12kg according to their recent measurements, but they clearly lack his physicality and his speed, which I think is what allowed him to go h2h with much bigger guys consistently – aside from great technique and high IQ of course.

    Yeah I remember him writing about how he had to make a step change in his training, including in the gym, to make Y

  12. 2 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

    I just feel slightly hamstrung for doing a thing in public up to 14 days in a row and then doing a severely brain damaged version of it on the 15th day to avoid the appearance of impropriety.

    EDIT: I also question to some extent whether or not it damages my ability to be taken seriously in discussions about the juryo line etc when you look at my picks to cross the maegashira line and they are total garbage.

    I mean, we have a whole topic to discuss division exchanges and the like, so it's not like the forum is dedicated to silence on any questions that might affect GTB. 

    • Like 1

  13. 7 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

    Yes, but Ozeki promotions don't happen every day. Next basho, we might only have one sanyaku slot available (Abi's); WMH, Daieisho, and Asanoyama (health permitting) are expected to hold the fort. In such a situation, a single KK in the joi would be enough to avoid a ridiculous overpromotion.

    It was pretty rare to have zero KK in the joi even in the top Y/O eras. 3+ vacancies in the S/K ranks is not very common either. Not sure what we're actually debating here, if anything (Laughing...)