Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    With both Kotozakura (14-1 Y) and Hoshoryu (13-2 J) in line for Yokozuna promotion with a sufficiently strong January performance, I thought I'd pull together some stats on how past Ozeki fared in similar situations. Because promotion standards got tightened dramatically at the time, I'll limit myself to the post-Futahaguro era, 1988-today.

    For starters, there have been four prior occasions when two Ozeki recorded at least 13 wins in a tournament. Not only were there no double promotions, there were no single ones either, although some might have resulted in promotion now that the criteria have been relaxed somewhat from the mandatory consecutive yusho in 1988-2012. Asahifuji went 14-1 Y, 12-3 in 1988, missing out on a playoff with the two participating Yokozuna by losing to both of them. And Musashimaru and Wakanohana came the closest to double promotion in 1994, when they followed up 15-0 Y, 14-1 J performances in July with 11-4 and 12-3 results in September, respectively.

  2. Posted

    4 hours ago, Ack! said:

    I'm not surprised that Nabatame survived, but I cannot understand the rationale for not doing the Daishoho/Kotokuzan exchange.

    It seems like they've really shifted to a strong incumbent bias recently. Until the Tsushimanada decision last year, 4 wins at J9 was a guaranteed ticket to Makushita. Conversely, 4-3 from Ms4 used to give a decent chance of promotion, but after Akiseyama in Jan 2020, there were 16 straight misses until Nabatame last basho. Could be some random variation, but I think we've all gotten the same sense. Not sure who/what is driving this...

    • Like 1

  3. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    12 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

    Again, where's the fun? Why should one of my three followers have to wait till tomorrow to see how his guys did today? 

    We were just trying to reduce your workload, sir! Please carry on as you were.

  4. Posted

    10 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

    In fact, because of the half-fast® scheduling for lower divisions, every three days would be fine for posting this, @Kintamayama.  [At least that's my preference].  If any one is hot to follow a celeb with more detail, they could do it on their own easily enough.

    Or perhaps every even day through 12, and then day 15, when each of the 7 "rounds" is completed. That's how I tend to follow Makushita.

    • Like 2

  7. Posted

    I haven't seen a makushita joi guess posted, unless I missed it. I can only come up with 9 reasonable candidates for the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone based on past rankings. Any ideas @Gurowake @Asashosakari et al.?

    7-0 Ms48 Osanai, the rank is a bit borderline but I think he'll make it.

    6-1 Ms7w Wakanosho; next-best rank is Ms20 Tochimaru, which seems too low.

    5-2 Ms6e Kazekeno, Ms12 Hitoshi. Next is Ms14 Otsuji, which also seems too low.

    4-3 Ms4e Kotokuzan (or Daishoho), Ms5e Akua, Ms7e Kusano.

    3-4 Ms2w Miyagi.

    J10 Onosho (2-11-2) again seems a bit borderline, but I don't see anyone with a better case...

     

  9. Posted

    1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

    Aonishiki is super sharp up close and capitalizes on mistakes faster than anyone in juryo already. Very good with subtle moves to create openings. Physically stronger than other skilled youngsters like Kotoeiho and Wakaikari. His weakness so far seems to be aggressive pushers who don't let him get inside to grapple, but he's got plenty of time to work on that.

    If he was a little bigger, I'd have him ticketed as at least Ozeki material, and he may get there anyway. He's been incredibly impressive to watch.

    • Like 2

  12. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    15 hours ago, robnplunder said:

    My sentimental choice is Tamashoho.  I am hoping Hakuoho to make it, too.  He looked so promising before the injury.  

    It's very straightforward in the end. The promotion order is Kinbozan, Kitanowaka/Hakuoho, Kagayaki/Tamashoho. The demotion order is Bushozan, Shishi/Asakoryu/Ryuden, Sadanoumi. So 5 up, 5 down. Tsurugisho would probably have replaced Tokihayate if he won, but now the latter should luck out despite a demotable record, though they could conceivably replace him with Shiden.

    • Like 2
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  13. Posted

    14 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    So we now have 4 demotable records in juryo and only 2 clear promotion cases. So if they absolutely positively have to fill the extra slots, what's the queue order?

    I am guessing Kotokuzan, Akua, Kazekeno.

    There's absolutely no reason to send down Nabatame with a 7-8 without strong promotion pressure when they can slide him over to 14w (remember that Oshoumi just stayed with a 6-9 from 14w). I think the only question is whether they exchange Daishoho with Kotokuzan; seems like they should but recent decisions suggest they might not.

    • Like 2

  16. Posted

    49 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    Right, and that's sort of the point. If they would be willing to consider it at all in a vacuum, I don't think there's a prayer of it happening when you consider he'll have to beat Onosato to hit 7-8. So that shows how locked into K I think Abi and Waka are.

    Several recent misses from M2 with 10 wins make me think WTK would be out of luck with a loss if Kiri wins. For M3 with 11, we just have Hokutofuji, so that's harder to predict.

  18. Posted

    33 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    My predictions:

    Shukun-Sho: Abi

    Kanto-sho: Takanosho unconditionally, plus Gonoyama if he wins

    Gino-sho: Wakatakakage if he wins

    Good set of predictions. They could make Takanosho's conditional. I guess others in the conversation could be Wakamotoharu if he wins, but he mainly feasted on lower-ranked opponents, or Onokatsu if he wins, but it's his second makuuchi basho...

  20. Posted

    4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    Shiden, who at least has a slim hope of promotion should he win and all of Ryuden, Kagayaki, Tsurugisho, and Tamashoho lose, which is at least possible given the schedule

    I think Shiden would be behind Kagayaki and Tamashoho even with those results, so he can finish at best 6th in the promotion queue, and would be unlikely to be exchanged with Tokihayate, the potential 6th endangered incumbent.

  24. Posted

    9 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

    That's only getting decided a few hours before tomorrow's matches.

    With the ozeki dominating the race and no newcomers in double digits, it might be a thin prize haul. We did see none given at Aki 2018, and only one at Aki 2023 (as well as on a number of previous occasions).