Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito

  2. Posted

    11 minutes ago, Sakura said:

    So if Takakeisho wins the yusho in November, List One says we can't rule out a promotion to Yokozuna but List Two says we can't say it'll happen for definite either.

    Excellent analysis. Presumably his tenure in seven tournaments at the rank so far, including two kadobans and one demotion to sekiwake, plus the most recent 7-8 and 8-4-3 results, would argue against promotion, but let's see him pull off a strong yusho first.

    • Like 3

  4. Posted

    4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

    It’s been true only in the sense that it’s always happened that way.

    According to the source of all knowledge, Wikipedia, "A wrestler at the rank of sekiwake will be considered for promotion if he has achieved a total of at least 33 wins over the three most recent tournaments, including ten or more wins in the tournament just completed." That's also the way I've always heard the guidelines stated. Of course, the next sentence in that article beings with "Promotion is discretionary and there are no hard-and-fast rules..."

  5. Posted

    11 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

    Let's assume 9-6 is all he manages. The Kyokai couldn't easily ignore that he'd made the 33/45 target and deny him promotion, but 9-6 isn't a great finish to a run.

    I believe double-digits in the third basho of the run is an absolute requirement; that's certainly been true historically in the 6-basho era.

  7. Posted

    1 hour ago, Sakura said:
    1 hour ago, Sakura said:

    I wonder if they would demand three consecutive 10+ win basho from Mitakeumi to show some more consistency. In 20 basho in Sanyaku he's managed just 3 double-digit records.  Comparing his stint(s) with Goeido. Mitakeumi has the higher highs (yusho) but much lower lows. Goeido had a number of 8-7 records with a few double digits thrown in, until he finally strung together a 12-8-12 wins count over three basho. Goeido was in Sanyaku for long enough to be a mainstay and that I think must have helped his promotion. It's certainly conceivable that Mitakeumi could benefit from being a mainstay as well. I just don't much faith in him though.

    My only point is that no run of 33 wins over 3 basho, all at Sekiwake, all kachi-koshi, has ever failed to earn promotion, with the exception of Miyabiyama's, who (1) was a former Ozeki and (2) only got 9 wins in the final basho. Quite a few of the runs started with 8 or 9 wins, and one had 8 in the middle basho. Do I want Mitakeumi to pull it off? Yes. Do I have faith? Not so much.

     

    • Like 1

  10. Posted

    4 hours ago, Sakura said:

    Mitakeumi lost again and once again his Ozeki aspirations seem to be down the drain.

    Not that I see it happening, but should he win out, 11-9-13 is a feasible Ozeki run.

    4 hours ago, Sakura said:

    I've also removed Midorifuji as I don't think even 11 wins would be enough for banzuke luck.

    I have Churanoumi out of contention as well.

  11. Posted

    7 minutes ago, Sakura said:

    Certainly an interesting question. The last time an M1e with 8 wins didn't get promoted was 1969, but we probably don't have an exact precedent.

    I guess we know that a 9-6 M1w can be merely moved over to M1e (in fact, that's exactly what happened the last 3 times the situation occurred). And no M1w with double-digit wins has failed to be promoted to san'yaku, so presumably they'd just create an extra komusubi slot if necessary.

  12. Posted

    55 minutes ago, Asojima said:

    Terunofuji has finally learned the valuable lesson that if you have nothing to gain or lose, don't fight.

    Is his san'yaku promotion certain at 8-5-2? I know it's unlikely, but what if Daieisho wins out, leaving only one open slot, and Takanosho picks up 2 or 3 more wins?

  14. Posted

    14 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    Given that there is a second spot for sure open now that I'm fully informed of things, I would agree that Jokoryu looks like a lock with only Chiyonoumi possibly ahead of him in queue, though you might see a 6-1 Ura ahead of him; that kind of thing I'm sure someone can do some research on, but it won't be me.

    When 4-3 Daiseido went from Ms1w to Ms1e with two promotion slots available, those promoted ahead of him were a 5-2 Ms1e and a 7-0 Ms5e. The other two similar instances in the last decade involved promotion of a 4-3 Ms1e and a 6-1 Ms3e on one occasion, and a 5-2 Ms1e and a 6-1 Ms2w on the other. Here's the full list of such non-promotions.

  18. Posted

    Kitaharima is currently tied for 3rd for the number of times a rikishi has dropped from Juryo to Makushita, with 7. Can he make it 8, which would move him into a tie for second, one behind the recently retired leader, Kizenryu? Kizenryu, however, was one-and-done in Juryo all 9 times, and leads second-place Kitaharima by 4 on that list.

  21. Posted

    7 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

    At this rate, Enho could even end up tying Onosho's 2-13 record from July.  The only good take away from that would be the possibility of coming back and being a yusho contender in November, like Onosho this tournament. (Idunno...)

    If he goes 2-13, he'll in all likelihood be contending for the Juryo yusho in November ;-)

    • Like 2

  23. Posted

    6 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

    Arguably, Asanoyama is on a tsuna run, although a very tentative one.  If by some miracle he manages to win the yusho this time around, he will essentially have a consecutive junyusho + yusho record.  That's what Kakuryu had when he got promoted to Yokozuna in 2014.  But, and it is a big "but", the quality of Kakuryu's consecutive finishes was significantly more impressive 14-1-P and 14-1 versus Asanoyama's 12-3 and 12-3 at best.  

    For what it's worth, the last Yokozuna promotion with fewer than 25 wins over the previous two basho was Tamanoumi in 1970 (10-5, 13-2 P), when the criteria were clearly different.