Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito

  5. Posted

    Based on a very cursory look through just the 2021 tournaments, I think the shield either ended with Hakuho, in which case I guess we'd start again with the first Jonokuchi bout of Aki (won by Kotoegashira), or it is currently held by Terunofuji, who took it from Kiribayama. Let's see if this holds up after the much more thorough analysis others are doing is completed.

  6. Posted

    On 13/11/2021 at 17:13, Katooshu said:

    And then of course the collegiate rikishi - Fukai, Nishikawa, Kanno, Ishizaki, Hitoshi, Osanai, Oshoma, Kinbozan, etc......there are likely a number of sekitori out of them. Funnily enough, I think 21-0 Fujiseiun is at the lower end of potential for the recent college grads.

    Do we have any sort of criteria that would allow us to predict which collegiate rikishi might reach the highest ranks? Probably not enough sample size?

  10. Posted

    1 hour ago, Ack! said:

    Chiyonokuni, Akua

    These two had winning records...

    1 hour ago, Ack! said:

    Is it me, or have the promotees from Juryo been ranked much lower than a by-the-numbers approach would suggest for the last few bashos?  I had Ichiyamamoto at M9w and Wakamotoharu at M10w, which is only slightly generous, but in-line with those who would be surrounding them.  I don't have my predictions for the previous bashos anymore but remember being surprised how low the promotees have landed at least the previous 2 bashos.

    I think it's been true for a while that treating J1 by the numbers as though it were the next rank in Makuuchi works pretty well for deciding who gets promoted, but not for where to rank them. Presumably because a Juryo fight card is viewed as not as strong as a top-division one.

  13. Posted

    8 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    Without giving away the secret of my success mediocrity I have treated komusubi as maegashira 0 and sekiwake as maegashira -1. Next time I will see what happens if I treat them as m-1 and m-2 instead.

    The thing is, they weren't even internally consistent—Kiribayama's placement was perfectly justifiable, while Ichinojo's was extremely lenient. It's not like they're following some set of rules that we just haven't figured out (at least, not numerical ones).

  15. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    3 hours ago, Oortael said:

    That's the complete list of 11-4 J7. 3/19 got promoted, including none over the last 40 years (7 opportunities). I know each banzuke is his own animal. But I thought Kagayaki was pretty safe. I bow down to the masters.

    I did this search in trying to make this call, and had to weight it against how 5-10 M14's have fared. There were also other instances of similar but not exact rank/record combinations that convinced me to go with Oho.

  17. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    11 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

    In all, it was a low scoring affair with quite a few, well, unorthodox decisions by our makers.

    I remember the first pandemic banzuke when the committee couldn't meet as usual (Aki 2020) was full of head-scratching rankings, and Sakura's winning score was 50. I'm wondering if something like that played a role here with the basho in Fukuoka and a quick trip back to Tokyo.

  18. Posted

    15 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    60 isn't that great of a score for a winning guess with the expected number of sanyaku (although it's obviously very good regardless), and there are multiple things I got wrong that could easily have been gotten right.  I do admit that there are plenty of things on this banzuke that are quite odd that should lower scores somewhat compared to last time, but the amount of the weirdness isn't any larger than normal - just larger than last time.  I expect somewhere around 65 will win.

    Do I get extra points for guessing that you had the winning guess? (Laughing...) Seriously though, congrats; nicely done (Cheers...)

  19. Posted

    26 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    I count 60 for me.  Mistakes:

    Swapping Komusubi (2)

    Swapping Endo and Ichinojo (4, 6 total)

    Swapping Abi and Onosho (4, 10 total)

    Swapping Hidenoumi and Takarafuji (4, 14 total)

    Swapping Shimanoumi and Chiyonokuni (2, 16 total)

    Having the entirety of Aoiyama, Kotoeko, Tochinoshin, and Tsurugisho be wrong despite having all four of them in the four slots they ended up taking, and it not just being two swaps, which means they must fit into a nice cycle: Aoiyama -> Kotoeko -> Tsurugisho -> Tochinoshin -> Aoiyama (8, 24 total)

    84 less 24 = 60.

    I also swapped the Komusubi, and Endo and Ichinojo. I had Abi and Onosho wrong, plus Chiyoshoma on the wrong side (–1). Also Hidenoumi and Takarafuji, as well as Shimanoumi and Chiyonokuni. I'd argue that most of these depart from the usual way of doing things. I had Aoiyama and Tochinoshin swapped, but got Kotoeko and Tsurugisho right (+4). My other mistakes: swapping Ura and Kiribayama (–4), which I knew was a close call, swapping Chiyotairyu and Ishiura (–2), and swapping Kotonowaka and Yutakayama (–4).

  21. Posted

    5 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    Yup. Plenty of those here too.

    Looks like 39 for me, which is bad, but it looks like we have a low-scoring contest, so maybe not catastrophic.

    Can't ever recall making such a pig's ear of m1-m5.

    Yeah I only got 9 of 20 points here; Ura/Kiribayama was a tossup, but I don't know what Ichinojo is doing at M2w or Onosho at M5e.