Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    30 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    1 more win would take him fro 95% certain to 99% certain... Just looking back through the database I noticed the wrestler now known as Okinoumi got 5-2 at Ms1w in November 2008 and was rewarded with a promotion to Ms1e. Those were hard times... http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=ms1w&form1_wins=5&form1_losses=2&form2_rank=ms

    Wow, that's harsh. Getting stuck there with a 4-3 is somewhat more common. Theoretically, he still could end up as low as 5th in the promotion queue (behind Takakento, Roga, Kanno, and 7-0 Oshoryu or Shonannoumi), not that I see that happening.

  4. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    5 hours ago, Bakayokozuna said:

    In his latest video, Chris Sumo says Mitakeumi keeping his rank is an official thing. Has someone found matching informations or is he getting too fast here ?

    Love a lot of his work, but he says a lot of things with unwarranted certainty

    • Like 1

  6. Posted

    12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    No wonder Tochinoshin dealt relatively well with it this time!

    Just looked at the arasoi - if I haven't read it wrongly, if Tobizaru loses and Ichinojō wins, he'll have opened up a 2-win lead before nakabi. I'm not sure how to perform the query but it feels like it's definitely a first for a hiramaku leader, and might even be an absolute first (maybe Asashōryū or Hakuhō did better?).

    Absolute: Wakanohana Haru 1998 most recently among others.

    Hiramaku: Kongo Hatsu 1972,

    • Thanks 1

  7. Posted

    13 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    Shimazuumi looking pretty sharp against Yago today, going straight wins since his opening two day losses. Might be someone we could see in makuuchi soon.

     

    He's got only one trick—morozashi—but somehow his opponents have not worked out how to shut down his attempts to get it. I don't think it'll play higher up the banzuke...

  8. Posted

    14 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    Time for Kinbozan to order his new mawashi. Given his shikona I think gold would be a good choice.

    He should get one more win to make sure (I'll take 3 more, too).

  9. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    8 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    it only ended up not being Sadanoumi because of Abi for some reason getting paired down that low instead of Ichinojo due to them apparently deciding to force Ichinojo vs. Kotonowaka, which I would have never thought to have happened this early

    I think we forgot about the "nakabi effect" in which they deviate from the pattern in favor of more high-profile bouts.

    9. Sadanoumi.

  10. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    54 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    In case anyone who plays hasn't seen, the news is that there was a positive COVID test at Mitakeumi's stable and he's out. He's the only makuuchi wrestler from there, so it's only the one absence, and although I'll poke at the torikumi again, I trust Reonito's judgment about the effects on our boy.

    Not sure I want that much responsibility ;-) and it very easily could have. Like, I think it makes Aoiyama a much less likely choice.

  13. Posted

    3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    I was with Oshirokita in predicting the intrasanyaku matches, the two lowest ranked sanyaku available (Shodai, Daieisho) against the Komusubi, which led to Ichinojo facing Endo and thus making Sadanoumi the right pick.  I literally didn't check any other combination of intrasanyaku matches, nor did I check to see what they did last basho.  I take it the people picking Endo assumed they would make the same ones as last basho - but they didn't.

    Yup, I had Daieisho v Hoshoryu instead of Mitakeumi vs Hoshoryu. This affected my aite picks for Kiribayma and Tamawashi, but then the torikumi was brought back in sync by Kotonowaka v Tamawashi.

  14. Posted

    2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    lit. middle day, 中日. Synonym/specific noun for Day 8 of a basho. Cf. shōnichi 初日 for Day 1 (lit. first/beginning day) with a different reading of the hi/ka/nichi kanji (the hi is rendered -bi in nakabi for the same reason as heya becomes -beya in a compound) and senshūraku for Day 15.

    Shonichi is also used for first win, right? Same kanji or just same pronunciation? Any Japanese I know is what I've learned here, so appreciate these linguistic insights!

  16. Posted

    13 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

    Both kadoban Ozeki makekoshi after joban. Not looking good. Mitakeumi on track to end 6-9, Shodai 3-12! Of course, it doesn’t work like that but it’s fun to look at trends. Mitakeumi can probably escape but Shodai is in for a rough second week.

    At least Shodai has two working arms...

  18. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    I'm really curious now, because I saw a pattern that seemed so obvious I couldn't believe I missed it all this time (as in, "Oh, is this the even-day rule they keep talking about?"), and Endo v. Sadanoumi is what I had lined up before I saw that pattern. I stopped right after that, but I'm pretty sure it led to Hokutofuji v. Chiyotairyu, given the mass of answers so far. But when I applied the pattern, I got Sadanoumi, and for the life of me I can't figure out why it wouldn't be applied here.

    They don't apply it consistently, which is why I didn't go with Sadanoumi.

    • Like 2
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  20. Posted

    41 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

    So is that the secret to this game - you're not playing Guess Hokutofuji's Aite, you're playing Guess the top half of Makuuchi's Aite!

    This is why there's a provision, IIRC, that we pivot away from our boy Hokutofuji if he drops too far down the banzuke.

  22. Posted

    10 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

    Getting out of kadoban is one thing, but if he's just going to wind back up there 1 basho later there's not much of a point in the whole charade, is there?

    I still hold out hope that he can turn it around. The talent is certainly there. Anyway, "the ball don't lie"—if he fights well enough to pick up 8+ wins (or 10+ in September), he stays Ozeki; if he doesn't, he doesn't. But I'll certainly continue rooting for "good Shodai" to show up each day.

  24. Posted

    8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    The irritating thing is, seeing as Shōdai has actually been looking like he's improving over the past two days, he might still actually get out of kadoban.

    I mean, we're hoping he does, right?