Reonito
-
Content Count
2,847 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
6
Posts posted by Reonito
-
-
We must be getting close to the release of the Day 1 & Day 2 torikumi...
-
"By the numbers" (and I know that doesn't apply as cleanly across divisions) I had Ura 5 full ranks ahead of Chiyomaru.
-
1
-
-
Yeah the only way to make certain would be to go 7-0, but he's got better than even odds at 4-3, and highly likely with anything stronger.
-
54 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:It heavily depends on the promotion/demotion picture from juryo. If few slots open in juryo this time then even a strong result may not suffice, but if the bottom drops out of juryo then even a weak 4-3 will do.
Since 2010, 15/20 Ms2w rikishi with 4-3 scores got promoted. For 5-2 it's 10/10.
-
1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:Where else was Chiyomaru supposed to go?
Appreciate your insights, as always.
-
1
-
-
17 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:As far as I'm concerned the only parts that are pretty far out are how Tobizaru and Chiyoshoma were treated, everything else I might feel compelled to complain about is a direct result of those two placements.
Those two stand out for sure. But over-promoting all three of Kotoeko, Okinoumi, and Chiyotairyu, when only two were necessary, seems out of character, Chiyomaru looks over-promoted to me, and I don't know how they'd justify Ichiyamamoto over Yutakayama, even if they were equal "by the numbers." The rest, as you say, is largely spillover from these choices.
-
This one seems more unreasonable and inconsistent than most TBH. As you say, there's usually at least one "why in the world did they do that?" but this time there are quite a few of those.
-
1
-
-
So, if he never pulls off a successful run, will Mitakeumi end his career as the best rikishi to never make Ozeki? Wakanosato came up above; are there other contenders?
-
-
30 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:That rikishi A and B might do similarly well when they compete against schedule X and also when they compete against schedule Y doesn't tell us much of anything about how A fighting X and B fighting Y should be compared. That's down to the characteristics of X and Y, not A and B.
Completely agree, though I'd argue that unless there's a good way to quantify X and Y, it's basically impossible to compare A and B. What useful information could you get from their records if one fought 15 bouts against prime Hakuho and the other against Shonnanzakura?
-
17 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:The quality differences between bottom maegashira and top juryo are of course negligible for the ones who tend to be paired up for these matches, mostly the first 3 ranks on each side, but their respective full schedules extend much further into each division.
That's fair, though the head-to-head results suggest they might fair similarly with similar schedules.
-
10 hours ago, Yamanashi said:essentially, equality (2000 to present)
Suggesting that the practice by the banzuke committee to favor lower-makuuchi rikishi over those in upper juryo with similar rank-record combinations "by the numbers" may not be as justifiable by strength of schedule as one might think.
-
1
-
-
-
20 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:Terunofuji now is in 2nd place all on his own for wrestler with the most yusho who did not make yokozuna (his getting the rope would remove him from the list altogether)
Terunofuji is now also tied for 6th place for most yusho won while being ranked below yokozuna; Takanohana is at the top with a whopping seven.
-
8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:7-0 from Sd25 and higher is practically an auto-promotion into the makushita top 15, so if they're nice enough to demote him no further he might be back in juryo within two basho.
I'd looked, and it seems like Sd25 is the dividing line for that in recent years, with the last two instances at that rank making it a toss-up.
-
16 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:would a strong 10-5 from one of the komusubi make the shimpan go "heck, for the sake of symmetry might as well punt one of them up"?
I don't see it; the record is pretty clear it takes 11-4
-
5 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:In a vacuum, I think that is likelier than a 3-sekiwake banzuke in Aki
Of course, the likeliest 3-sekiwake scenario is that both Takayasu and Mitakeumi go kachi-koshi but without the 13- or 15-win yusho, respectively, they'd probably need to get promoted.
-
Assuming Asanoyama decides to stick it out and fight back, the trajectory should look something like this:
7.21 O -> 9.21 S -> 11.21 M10 -> 1.22 J5 -> 3.22 Ms5 -> 5.22 Ms45 -> 7.22 Sd25
On the way back up, assuming 7-0 in the lower divisions, and 12 wins as sekitori, I get:
9.22 Ms16 -> 11.22 Ms1 -> 1.23 J12 -> 3.23 J3 -> 5.23 M12 -> 7.23 M1
So he could return to the paid ranks in early 2023, and the joi about two years from now. He won't get his rank back until 2024, and that's assuming Terunofuji-like dominance.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, Gurowake said:It's going to be really annoying for the sanyaku ranks next tournament; I hope they just create a 3rd Sekiwake even if it's not needed.
I'm willing to bet they won't.
-
1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:Common wisdom is Kisenosato was promoted largely off the back of just one calendar year – 2016 – in which he got the most Makuuchi wins and four JYs, among them two 13-2s.
My impression was that the promotion came because this built on several previous strong years (like 4 straight JY in 2013), but it's hard to know the ways of the NSK/YDC.
-
Kisenosato needed several years of results like that to finally get the nod after a yusho, and that was against much more formidable competition.
-
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:Kotoshoho next (although his swift departure makes him more likely to become another Asasekiryu or Chiyootori)
I'm still holding out hope that he'll be back up quickly, and that his next stint will be more lasting, once his ankle fully heals.
-
I think he's going with the British "hard worker" meaning.
-
1
-
-
50 minutes ago, Unkonoyama said:You are thinking of "grift" for the US, totally different word.
They're actually similar and possibly derived from each other.
-
1
-
Nagoya Basho 2021
in Honbasho Talk
Posted · Edited by Reonito
12-3 would give him 24/30. There have been only 3 yokozuna promotions in the 6-basho era with that few wins, and none since the 1960s. All post-Futahaguro promotions have been with at least 26/30. 14-1 at a minimum IMHO.