Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito


  1. 4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

    I can't wrap my head around one thing in particular.

    Miyagino is a smart man, so he must understand the shaky position he was put in. Why risk it all by choosing to turn a blind eye to all of this?

    There's three possibilities in my mind.

    • He was overconfident to a stratospheric level, thinking nobody could touch him
    • He thought he had all his deshi on a tight enough leash that nobody would dare speak against him when confronted by the investigations
    • He's got some dirt on the NSK and knew he wouldn't be thrown out, despite outwardly appearances

    All three are interesting on their own way.

    Denial/magical thinking is as good an explanation as any; smart people are not immune from blind spots and denying the obvious when it's inconvenient.

    • Like 1

  2. 16 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

    This has only been true since the early 2000s. Before then it was standard for newly promoted Ozeki to go above kadoban Ozeki. Sometimes newly promoted Ozeki would even be promoted above Ozeki who had earned (weak) kachikoshi in the previous tournament. Here's the last example of this occurring that I could find: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=200009.

    IMO it would be better for Kotonowaka to be ranked above Takakeisho next basho. Otherwise we could end up with the bizarre situation where Takakeisho has a better record than Kotonowaka but gets demoted to Sekiwake while Kotonowaka doesn't.

     

    Interesting. You're right, it would look weird...has it happened before that two Ozeki go MK and one gets demoted? I'd look but the db is down at the moment.


  3. 1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    Does anyone else have Meisei ahead of Oho or am I way out on a limb?

    It's basically a coin flip, they've been mostly breaking ties recently based win totals for rikishi from a similar area of the banzuke, so that favors Oho, but there are "intangibles" that can be used to argue for Meisei.


  4. 10 minutes ago, maglor said:

    The question is not "Where does a rikishi with X wins from Y rank go", but "Between Rikishi X with Y rank/record combo and Rikishi A with B rank/record combo, which one historically winds up ahead." Looking at rikishi moves in isolation is always quite useless. You see this every time discussions about promotion/demotion between divisions happen.

    And this can depend on whether they're competing for say M4 or M7.


  5. 15 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    I'm saying this because of how this banzuke is working out, not because I'm sure I did well: history is probably not going to be the most useful way of figuring out what they'll do this time. There are just too many gaps to fill, to the point where it would be more surprising if we didn't see at least a few moves that are at least tied for the biggest overpromotion/underdemotion for a particular record. (Maybe with the exception of extreme circumstances like scandals that force a bunch of kyujos/retirements.)

    Just filling Kw-M3 will take us into near-record territory, although I'd argue history is still a useful guide to how they approach numerical ties or near-ties in various scenarios, even if it's not the exact rank/record/placement situations we're looking at here.


  6. 3 minutes ago, #1HENKAFAN said:

    Normally I'm not eager to disagree with the GOAT banzuke guesser but according to the kaiju Takerufuji got his promotion

    Even without seeing this, he has a clear promotion case and the guys he's competing with clearly missed their safety targets; I don't recall recent cases where the decision went against that.


  7. 3 hours ago, #1HENKAFAN said:

    When I checked the history for 2 win komusubi I saw the second to last time it happened in 2014 the komusubi Takakaze was placed at 9w behind Tamawashi who got 8 wins at M10w, half a rank lower than he was this time with the same record. If they put Tamawashi ahead back then I figured these days with a lower amount of sanyaku bias Takayasu should at least fall to M8E and then whether he's put below Onosho or Hokutofuji is more debatable.

    I've got Takayasu in the same spot; he could go as high as 7e but I'd be surprised to see him any higher. Our entries are generally very similar; I went with Nishikigi at K instead of Asa, Shimazuumi and Ryuden the other way round (I debated that one for a while) and your M15 and M16 are my M16 and M15. Here's my guess.

    • Like 1

  8. 7 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

    ah ... well now this is going to happen, based on results since the beginning of time.

    The potentially tricky part is how to treat O/Y promotions and demotions (especially if Y performance suffers). And remember there is a kosho system in place, so missing one basho should preserve someone's rank.


  9. 9 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

    Ichinojo's danpatsu-shiki takes place this Sunday, February 11th, at the Tobu Hotel Levant in Sumida, starting at 4pm. It's obviously not far from the Kokugikan, but given the clash with the Fuji TV tournament it makes me wonder if any sumo world people will be in attendance at all.

    The way he's gone about this is all too reminiscent of his approach on the dohyo.