Reonito

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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. Posted

    Openings in Makuuchi: Terunofuji, Hokutofuji, Roga, Kitanowaka, Kagayaki, Tamashoho, Tokihayate, Kotoshoho, Mitakeumi.

    Promotions from Juryo: Shishi, Ryuden, Aonishiki, Sadanoumi, Asakoryu, Kayo (W), Shirokuma.

    Computed rank for W/L: Kagayaki 19w/21w, Tamashoho 19e/21e, Tokihayate 18w/20w, Kotoshoho 18w/20w, Mitakeumi 16w/18w.

    Computed rank for W/L: Asakoryu 16w/18w, Kayo 17w/OUT, Shirokuma 18e/20e.

    The only head-to-head is Tamashoho vs. Mitakeumi, so there are 128 possible outcomes, which I'm not going to go through, but I think we could have anywhere between 5 and 7 exchanges.

     

  3. Posted

    Day 13 Juryo openings queue: Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi (3), Daiamami (2), Kiryuko (2), Hatsuyama (2), Daiseizan (1), Shimanoumi (1). Bold = definite, otherwise wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses; one less may well be enough. The most endangered incumbents won against promotion contenders 2e Kotokuzan (3-4) and 3w Kusano (4-3), eliminating the former entirely and leaving the latter with a week promotion case. Combined with 8w Ishizaki's loss to Mudoho for the yusho, we may yet have only 3 promotions. Daiseizan and Shimanoumi are almost certainly safe already.

    Day 13 Makushita promotion queue: 1e Wakanosho (4-2), 1w Kazekeno (4-3), 4w Hitoshi (5-1), 3w Kusano (4-3), 5w Otsuji (4-2), 4e Miyagi (3-3). I've bolded Hitoshi since I don't think he can end up lower than third in the promotion queue. Tomorrow, he'll try to create a 4th opening when he fights Shimazuumi, who'd be hard to keep with 11 losses.  According to Asashosakari's approach, if Shimazuumi finishes 4-11, that would give a win-loss difference of 8 vs. Kusano, and their rank difference is 7.5, so Kusano should go up in that scenario. Miyagi takes on Daiamami. If he loses, he's out of the promotion picture. If he wins, we are looking at a win-loss difference of at least 6, and a rank difference of 7, which wouldn't be enough, so Miyagi would need Daiamami and Otsuji to lose on senshuraku. Presumably we'll see Wakanosho and Otsuji face the most endangered Juryo guys on Day 15, although the could also be matched head-to-head, with promotion potentially on the line for the latter.

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  4. Posted

    12 minutes ago, Ack! said:

    Oho hasn't faced Kinbozan nor Takerufuji and will almost certainly face the former, if not both.  He is 1-7 against his day 13 opponent, Ura.  To finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, he likely will need to beat all three, a yusho-doten at worst.  That's a tough haul!  The more likely sanyaku scenario for him would involve a Wakatakakage MK, I think.

    Right, not to mention that Kirishima would need to lose at least 2 of 3.

  5. Posted

    14 hours ago, Hankegami said:

    Tobizaru is in serious danger to not get the Outstanding Performance award he's likely entitled to because of his kinboshi. He's 5-7 and must win out - no awards with a MK.

    I doubt they'd give that award for a kinboshi against a Yokozuna who went 2-2 and retired. They didn't hand them out to all the maegashira beating the wreck of Kisenosato...

  6. Posted

    10 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    This makes sense, but given that the sanyaku only doing OK has left the entire joi outside of Atamifuji with a chance at KK, it's feasible we end up with a late 2022 situation where a bunch of guys are lodged near the top without the ability to move very far. It's not going to be that much of a clusterfk, but it could be tight enough for them to bump Oho to K2 on 11-4.

    Takanosho and Tobizaru would probably have to win out to create a real logjam, and Takanosho would force a slot in any case if he does so...

  7. Posted

    Sanyaku:

    Among the Ozeki, Hoshoryu (suddenly very much in the yusho race) and Onosato have comfortably cleared kadoban, while erstwhile Yokozuna candidate Kotozakura is one loss away from "probation" after today's last-second reversal against Takerufuji.

    Daieisho has now guaranteed that he'll be Sekiwake for a third-straight tournament. Wakamotoharu will be losing that rank, though his henka today staved off a drop out of the named ranks for now. Abi is one win away from locking up a sanyaku spot and quite likely moving up, while Wakatakakage needs to win 2 of his last 3. Kirishima leads the race for the first open spot, followed by Oho. To make his sanyaku debut, the latter probably needs to finish two wins ahead of Kirishima, or hope that a second slot opens up.

  8. Posted

    38 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

    2 wins: Sadanoumi, Kayo, Asakoryu

    3 wins: Shirokuma, Tochitaikai

    With 4 openings already, several other incumbents with their backs to the wall, and only 3 clear promotions, anyone with KK in upper Juryo should have luck on their side ... and/or, as Asashosakari noted earlier, we could have some very lucky escapes in Makuuchi.

  9. Posted

    Day 12 Juryo openings queue: Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi (4), Daiamami (3), Hatsuyama (3), Daiseizan (2), Shimanoumi (3), Kiryuko (2). Bold = definite, otherwise wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses; one less may well be enough. Shimazuumi is now (just barely) demotable by the numbers, so we should have at least four openings for anyone in Makushita with a strong promotion case.

    Day 12 Makushita promotion queue: 1e Wakanosho (4-2), 1w Kazekeno (4-3), 8w Ishizaki (6-0), 4w Hitoshi (5-1), 3w Kusano (4-2), 2e Kotokuzan (3-3), 3w Otsuji (4-2), 4e Miyagi (3-3). The order given is roughly what I'd expect if everyone won. The ones in italics must win to have a shot. I've bolded Kazekeno since I don't think he can end up lower than fourth in the promotion queue. Quite a bit of action tomorrow. Kotokuzan's fate will be decided when he fights Shimazuumi in Juryo. Kusano also has an "exchange" bout, against Daiamami, although he could still luck out even with a loss. Ishizaki must beat Mudoho to claim both the yusho and automatic promotion. Presumably, the others will get their cracks at endangered Juryo incumbents on the final weekend.

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  11. Posted

    Day 11 Juryo openings queue: Terunofuji, Daishoho, Bushozan, Shimazuumi (4), Daiamami (3), Shimanoumi (3), Hatsuyama (3), Daiseizan (2), Kiryuko (2), Hakuyozan (1). Bold = definite, otherwise wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses; one less may well be enough.

    Day 11 Makushita promotion queue: 1e Wakanosho (4-2), 8w Ishizaki (6-0), 4w Hitoshi (5-1), 1w Kazekeno (3-3), 3w Kusano (4-2), 2e Kotokuzan (3-3), 3w Otsuji (4-2), 4e Miyagi (3-3). Top-ranked Wakanosho ensured a sekitori debut by beating Miyagi. Everything else is still up for grabs. The order given is roughly what I'd expect if everyone won. The ones in italics must win to have a shot. Kazekeno is up in Juryo tomorrow taking on Kiryuko. Ishizaki must beat Mudoho on Day 13 to claim both the yusho and automatic promotion.

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  12. Posted

    Most Ozeki don't live up to "should regularly get double-digit wins and contend for the yusho," or they'd be Yokozuna. Most Yokozuna don't live up to "should dominate most basho," or they'd be Dai-Yokozuna. (Ozeki) Kisenosato and Hakuho are the outliers, not (say) Goeido and Kakuryu.

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  14. Posted

    28 minutes ago, Oskanohana said:

    Oh, I was wishing some days ago for a Shimanoumi late surge and an 8-7 makuuchi promotion from J5, but that hope is long gone.

     

    If Ishizaki is the only 6-0 after the next round in makushita there might not be a high-ranked 5-1 available for him. He's already faced Otsuji, Takakento and Kaisho. If Hitoshi loses tomorrow in juryo against Tohakuryu (god knows what can happen there, for sure it's not gonna be pretty, I'm hoping for a double henka), next best option is tomorrow's winner of Hokutomaru-Kiokukaiyu (and he'd have to win his next bout also). Maybe they go old school anyway and pair him against a 4-2 or 3-3 opponent vying for promotion?

    Or even a Juryo opponent?

  15. Posted

    3 minutes ago, just_some_guy said:

    I have never seen someone care so little whether he wins or not as Mitoryu did in his match vs Shishi.

    What a monster that dude would be if he tried.

    He was ready to give up early in that bout, but Shishi didn't finish him, so he was like, I guess I better fight some more.

  16. Posted

    In the 15-day era, only 11 men started 6-3 and won the Makuuchi yusho. It says something about the current state of sumo that 3 of them came in the last 3 years. The only instance of a 6-3 rikishi chasing down a 9-0 leader is Haru 2023, when Kiribayama won after Midorifuji started 10-0 and finished 10-5. Similar Day 9 arasoi, too: a 9-0 leader, one rikishi at 8-1, and three at 7-2.

  18. Posted

    Makushita promotion race update, Day 9

    Daishoho's loss today should guarantee at least three openings in Juryo. All the contenders were in action in Makushita, and the results left the promotion picture about as messy as possible. 8w Ishizaki defeated Kaisho to extend his record to 5-0 and remain in the running. Next up should be former sekitori 38w Tsushimanada. The only other undefeated Makushita man is 44e Mudoho, who should get Sd1w Aron.

    In the promotion zone, everyone except Osanai is still alive, and nobody has clinched a spot. The only two KK belong to 4w Hitoshi and 5w Otsuji, who'll need more than 4 wins to get promoted, unless there's no alternative. In the 3-2 group, 1e Wakanosho and 2e Kotokuzan should go up with one more win, while 3w Kusano and 4e Miyagi probably need two more. 1w Kazekeno (2-3) is in with two more wins but out with another loss, while 2w Akua (2-3) must win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere.

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  20. Posted · Edited by Reonito

    It's too early to talk about the yusho race, with more than a third of Makuuchi still in it.

    Yokozuna runs: Kotozakura's is over, Hoshoryu needs to take the yusho and in all likelihood win out.

    Ozeki runs: the only rikishi who could conceivably have been said to be on one going into Hatsu was Wakamotoharu, and that's over. Abi (11-4 at M3e in Kyushu) could conceivably start one with a sufficiently strong performance here.

    Sanyaku exchanges: S1e Wakamotoharu (1-7) can't afford any more losses, while little bro WTK (K1w, 3-5) needs to go 5-2 or better from here. Two exchanges seem likely. At the moment, Kirishima would return to the named ranks and Oho would make his debut, but obviously it's still a long way to go.

    Division exchanges: one bonus spot in both Makuuchi and Juryo is opened by Terunofuji's retirement. Absent Hokutofuji and Roga should vacate two more slots in the top division. Of those still fighting, Kotoshoho is in deepest trouble, and several others need more wins than losses in the second week to reach mathematical safety. At the moments, the leading beneficiaries of the vacancies look to be Asakoryu, Shishi, Ryuden, and Aonishiki, with the J1 duo of Sadanoumi and Kayo still very much in the promotion chase.

    Absent Bushozan should create a second opening in Juryo, and Daishoho will create a third unless he wins out. Of the nine active rikishi in the Makushita promotion zone, all but overmatched Kyushu champion Osanai can still nurse promotion hopes. In the undefeated bracket, tomorrow's bout between 8w Ishizaki and 15w Kaisho will determine which of them stays in the promotion hunt.

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  22. Posted

    20 minutes ago, Rocks said:

    True, but I think they are going to have to adjust things going forward. I think the era of a broad strong field are over. Even the best aren't going to be very consistent anymore it seems. I think the Ozeki Carousel lately is indicative of that. if they want any Yokozuna going forward they are going to have to be a bit less stringent.

    Right, which is why I'm guessing 12 Y might be enough for Hoshoryu. They did relax the extremely stringent approach they used post-Futahaguro, with the last 3 promotions (Kakuryu, Kisenosato, Terunofuji) not held to what seemed like an absolute YY requirement from ~1989 to ~2013.

  23. Posted

    1 minute ago, Rocks said:

    Tamawashi's done it twice already.

    True, though as amazing as he is, he's not getting younger. Takerufuji is obviously a dark horse too, though there's a bunch of head-to-head bouts still to come among the 7-0 and 6-1 group, and a lot of san'yaku opposition if they keep winning.

  24. Posted

    34 minutes ago, Rocks said:

    In 202? I would say no. in January 2023? I would say very much so.  Yes, it's two 12 wins, but it was also his 3rd Yusho and November was a playoff.

    You'd have to go back to 1959 to find a promotion after 24/2, and to the pre-Futahaguro 1980's to even find one after 25/2. It seems like the bar in recent decades has been set at 26/2 with at least a Y and a D/J, unless their hand is forced by YY (which hasn't happened). There's clearly a difference of opinion whether 25/2 with a 12-3 Y would be enough for Hoshoryu given that the alternative is nokozuna.

  25. Posted

    37 minutes ago, Rocks said:

    I think for Hoshuryu, barring an injury,  that 13 wins is a given. The rest of the sanyaku are not having the kind of basho to suggest they'll give him issues. The only question is if it's a yusho. If it is, he's Yokozuna. I don't see 12 wins getting the yusho this basho.

    Not sure who else is getting to 13. Nothing in Chiyoshoma's or Kinbozan's resumes suggests they can do it, and presumably Hoshoryu would get to face any challengers still in the race down the stretch.