Reonito

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Everything posted by Reonito

  1. Reonito

    New Juryo for Haru

    As expected, it's Tamashoho, Tomokaze, Tokushoryu, and Ochiai!!! https://twitter.com/sumokyokai/status/1618050252778655744?s=20&t=sux6HHyMKrgJQW6ii8gMrg
  2. Reonito

    New Juryo for Haru

    Although we've never actually seen any of these extreme scenarios, correct?
  3. Reonito

    New Juryo for Haru

    For what it's worth, I don't think anyone doubted a 7-0 from Ms10TD = promotion. One of the arguments I heard was that Ms10TD exists because it's in the extended promotion zone, while Ms15TD isn't (which we now know isn't the case, even if it's not a guarantee).
  4. Reonito

    New Juryo for Haru

    I think they would have used it in the announcement, and it says Ochiai.
  5. Reonito

    YDC Post Hatsu 2023

    He's also had three 8-7 basho in the last nine. Can't really do that as a Yokozuna...
  6. Reonito

    YDC Post Hatsu 2023

    Hakuho wasn't promoted with a 14-1Y 13-2 J. Musashimaru wasn't promoted with a 12-3J 15-0Y (yes, a zensho wasn't enough). Just two more of many examples post-Futahaguro of stronger cases than Takakeisho's being declined.
  7. Reonito

    YDC Post Hatsu 2023

    That's pretty much the definition of Yokozuna. Nothing wrong with just having well-performing Ozeki until a dominant wrestler rises.
  8. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    Yes, this is what puts nominally him 5th in the promotion queue, with Hokuseiho closest to him. Of course, they can depart from the math, but it's a good starting point.
  9. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    Although it's not a perfect test, since they are K1w and K2w rather than K1e and K1w.
  10. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    I'd say almost certainly. If he doesn't make it, we'll know they have a hard-and-fast rule against promoting from Ms15TD, but the way the matches were set up on Day 15 strongly argues he's going up.
  11. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    Seriously, I am so pumped to see that bout!
  12. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    There's fairly standard rank/record math that underlies banzuke decisions, and although of course there are other factors, they rarely deviate too far from it. It's not simply about higher/lower rank or better/worse record; the exact numbers matter.
  13. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    The promotion zone seems pretty clear in any case; the only question mark is whether Chiyoarashi could bump either Mineyaiba or Mukainakano, but I haven't looked carefully at the precedents.
  14. Reonito

    Hatsu 2023 discussion (results)

    Hoshoryu kept his rank
  15. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    I feel like if it was some random juryo guy going 14-1 at J12w with the rest of the promotion picture like this, we wouldn't even be having the conversation. There will be a lot of clamor to promote Asanoyama, perhaps just among fans/media, perhaps within the NSK, but they'd have to do something that departs from the usual rules to accommodate him. It is perhaps relevant that they left Terunofuji in Juryo after his yusho, though his 13-2 at J13 was a considerably weaker numerical case.
  16. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    They could, if they really wanted to, view their final-day bout as the decider for promotion, but it would, as you say, go against all usual banzuke-making principles.
  17. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    When Mitoryu got stuck at J1e after going 12-3 Y at J6w in Nagoya 2021, there was only one promotion, and it was as strong as it gets—Yutakayama went 10-5 at J1e. And they opted not to push down Chiyonokuni, who went 7-8 at M16e.
  18. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    With 12 wins at J6, Daishoho's got the strongest promotion case of anyone.
  19. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    Yes. I'm also not convinced they'll stay with 8 S/K, though of course I was spectacularly wrong about this last time. As for Ozeki Wakamotoharu, that seems extremely premature for someone who's been in the top division for a year and moved up steadily but not dominantly, and you'd have to count a 10-5 at M4. If he puts up double-digits next time, sure, bump him up to S for May and see what he can do.
  20. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    Where's Daishoho?
  21. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    I'd be very surprised in they promoted Wakamotoharu, since the standard for K -> S when no slot is open is 11+ wins, and there is no compelling banzuke reason to do it.
  22. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    So Oho is safe for sure. Daishoho, Bushozan and Kinbozan are no-doubt promotions. For Asanoyama to come up, they'd either have to jump him over Hokuseiho (is it at all meaningful that Asnoyama won the H2H on senshuraku?) or push down Mitoryu. Will Asanoyama become only the second rikishi in history, and the first since 1959, to go 14-1 or better in Juryo and not go up?
  23. Reonito

    Hatsu Special Prizes

    Shukun-sho (Outstanding Performance Award) East Maegashira #13 Kotoshoho conditionally (11-3) Sadogatake Beya Date of Birth: August 26, 1999 (23 years old) Place of Birth: Chiba 2017 November Debut Kanto-sho (Fighting Spirit Prize) East Maegashira #8 Onosho conditionally (10-4) Onomatsu Beya Date of Birth: July 4, 1996 (26 years old) Place of Birth: Aomori 2013 January Debut Kanto-sho (Fighting Spirit Prize) East Maegashira #13 Kotoshoho (11-3) Sadogatake Beya Date of Birth: August 26, 1999 (23 years old) Place of Birth: Chiba 2017 November Debut Gino-sho (Technique Prize) East Komusubi Kiribayama (10-4) Michinoku Beya Date of Birth: April 24, 1996 (26 years old) Place of Birth: Mongolia 2015 May Debut
  24. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    Juryo <-> Makushita: Three Juryo spots are open: that of Okinoumi plus those of J13w Kaisho (4-10) and J11e Chiyosakae (4-10). Two incumbents are in danger: J10w Terutsuyoshi (5-9) and J12e Takakento (6-8). They've been matched up with two promotion contenders from makushita in what sure look like direct exchange bouts: Ms1e Tamashoho (3-3) and Ms5e Tsukahara (5-1), respectively. The outcomes of these bouts will determine which two of the four rikishi will receive a salary in March. As for the 3 open spots, one should be filled by Ms2w Tokushoryu (4-2), regardless of the outcome of his bout against Ms5w Fujiseiun (4-2), who is out of luck. Another should go to the winner of the bout between Ms2e Tomokaze (3-3) and Ms3w Tochikamiyama (3-3). And that leaves the third spot for the makushita champion, Ms15TD Ochiai (7-0), who for my money has been the most exciting wrestler of this tournament. Tune in tomorrow to see which questions have been answered, and which will be left in the hands of the banzuke committee.
  25. Reonito

    Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

    Makuuchi <-> Juryo: Three spots in the top division are being vacated by the absences of Ichinojo, Tochinoshin, and Okinoumi due to suspension, injury, and retirement, respectively. A 4th slot is open by dropping M16w Chiyomaru (3-11), who'll be making the trip to juryo for the 7th time, the most among active rikishi. Two incumbents are at least somewhat endangered, and could drop with a loss: M15w Mitoryu (6-8) and M8w Oho (3-11). After Takarafuji's non-demotion last time, it's hard to see Oho going down; with Mitoryu, it depends on the strength of the promotion pressure. With 4 slots open, J5e Kinbozan (11-3) and J2e Hokuseiho (9-5) should definitely be making their eagerly awaited top-division debuts. J6w Daishoho (11-3) should also be in makuuchi for the first time since dropping out after Kyushu 2019, with even a stint in makushita in there. J1w Bushozan (8-6) is a lock to make his debut with a win, and is likely to do so even with a loss. J12w Asanoyama (13-1) and J7e Chiyonokuni (10-4; his best basho in years) must win to stake a real promotion claim; should they do so, it'll come down to whether Mitoryu and Oho lose, and how the banzuke committee judges their relative merits, although a loss by Bushozan could add him to the bubble conversation.