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Posts posted by Reonito

  1. 5 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

    Nakamura will start at Makushita tsukedashi 10-official now.

    Is he only the 4th Ms10TD ever? That's what I get from the db. The previous 3 being Endo, Mitakeumi, and someone named Ichihara/Kiyoseumi back in 2007, who didn't have much of a career, presumably due to injury. (There's also Yutakayama in the 1960s who started at Ms10eOB, maybe that's the same thing?)

  2. 34 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    I've only started paying much attention to juryo recently, but do they commonly put guys who might be fighting for their salary against someone who's doing really well? At a glance, making a guy fight a joi regular who's only down there due to suspension—and thus not only far superior to the division normally, but also rested—just seems like a gigantic fk you.

    The general principle is to try to pair up guys who have something to fight for. With a max of 27 possible opponents in juryo, matchmaking gets hard toward the end. Ichinojo had already fought anyone who was doing well, and someone with a mild KK or MK from the middle ranks wouldn't have had anything even potentially at stake.

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  3. 39 minutes ago, sahaven111 said:

    Maybe Tsushimanada was spared because he was scheduled against rikishi like Ichinojo and Ochiai late into the basho, even though their records were vastly different?

    I feel like the whole point of scheduling him against Ichinojo with the yusho on the line was that he had something to fight for, namely avoiding demotion.

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  4. 1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

    Replace "they hate him" with "he was Ms6+" and it's basically my assessment. Notwithstanding that I was hoping for the opposite outcome, I don't really get the general outrage here. It's hardly like Ms3w 4-3 is a slam dunk promotion case, based on how they've handled this area over the last few years. 

    It's more that 4-11 at J9 seemed like a slam dunk demotion case...

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  5. 7 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

    Why? Not even Asanoyama could do it prior to going 27-3 in juryo over the last 2 basho.

    I doubt anyone here would be shocked if Nakamura takes a loss in his debut.

    Of the fairly recent very successful Ms TD rikishi, Endo went 5-2 twice in Ms before his 14-1 juryo yusho, Ichinojo went 6-1 twice, as did Mitakeumi. There's a reason Ochiai going 7-0 was such a big deal.

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  6. 2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    I'm guessing that they didn't want to break up the pair on the bubble, and didn't want to promote Shiden because they hate him.

    They could've gone with Chiyonoumi, who was on the right side of the invisible line. I honestly didn't think the incumbents were on the bubble given that their next rank computed to J16. It's not like promoting from Ms5 is unheard of, and it doesn't require disastrous records in juryo.

  7. 4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

    Whoever says the NSK blindly follows tradition can go stuff it. More than 50 years of precedent isn't enough and they break it twice in the same banzuke?

    Kawazoe will make it to jūryō eventually, but your heart's gotta go out for Shiden. Dumpstered out of jūryō for something essentially not his fault and a near-Sisyphean record in getting back up there.

    I gotta say @Gurowake called it.

  8. 2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

    Definitely a very suspect non-promotion, for which I can only think of two things: 1) Kawazoe and Shiden are probably not super endearing to the shimpanbu given who their shisho is and what they previously did, respectively, and 2) is there some unofficial quota on shinjūryō promotion nowadays given that there's like only one artisan making shimekomi? Even so there's only three shin-jūryō which is definitely not unprecedented, so...

    The legitimate explanation is of course going 4-0 then 4-3 is not a good look for promotion, while a 6-1 outside the promotion zone doesn't really justify leaping everyone else, but it feels like a very weak post-hoc rationalisation to me.

    JSA: "we'd rather see this guy in the salaried ranks for another basho"

    Screen Shot 2023-03-28 at 6.51.06 PM.png

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  9. This was Shiden's 3rd 6-1 score while ranked just outside the promotion zone. Natsu will be his 9th time in the promotion zone. He went 3-4 in 7 of 8 previous chances. And of course we all know what happened the one time he went 5-2.

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  10. Kawazoe and Shiden got screwed. Tsushimanada is the first 4-11 J9 who gets to stay since 1963, when Juryo had 18 ranks. Shimanoumi is only the 3rd of 43 5-10 J11's to stay up in the same timeframe; Chiyosakae just got sent down in January with the same rank and record.

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  11. 5 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

    The positive movement on this next banzuke is going to be higher than we've seen in a bit, and very high for a situation where no one sped down the ranks on the Sails of Kyujo, but even so, M5/6 would require pushing those two even higher than the math says they should go, and... I dunno. Feels wrong, considering this is all supposed to be performance-based and not "but we know he's this good".

    Just put one at M8 and one at M9 so we all have EZ Clap time in Roto.

    But then you look at the alternatives :'-(

  12. 5 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

    I think the days of giving anyone who gets ten wins on debut a Kantosho are in the past - there have been several examples of this not happening in more recent times. 

    Every single rikishi since 2011 got one (15 instances including Kinbozan).

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  13. 5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    Even Ochiai's 10-5 is a fantastic score considering two of his losses were to Ichinojō and Asanoyama, and he damn near beat those two either. It's worth pointing out that had Asanoyama and Ichinojō been in makuuchi this basho, 12-3 would have lifted the jūryō yūshō.

    His other 3 losses: he got surprised an pulled down by Tamashoho, who managed that against no less than Asanoyama two basho again, lost to Atamifuji while fighting with one arm, and lost to 11-4 Gonoyama. I expect quite a battle between those two in May.

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  14. 1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

    I looked again at the recent situation that I thought was comparable, and it involved a 4-3 Ms4, not a 4-3 Ms3.  Bad memory on my part; I should probably actually verify the comparables I use in my head before relying on them to make prognostications.  So yeah, I guess that it is more likely that both swaps will occur.

    Oh, I remember that one; I think it left us all (Scratchingchin...)

  15. 2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

    Juryo yusho winners Jan 2015 - March 2023 (N = 49):

    Winning scores -- 10 (6), 11 (11), 12 (14), 13 (14), 14 (4), 15 (0)

    So of the 4 14-1 Y, 2 are in the last two basho

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  16. 1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

    I don't see why you're singling out Shimanoumi as definitely staying over Tsushimanada.  They seem equivalent to me, and if anything I'd put Tsushimanada ahead of Shimanoumi on the banzuke in general.  I also think it is more likely that both of them are staying and neither Shiden nor Kawazoe will be promoted, but that's not particularly more likely than the next most likely option, which is that both Shimanoumi and Tsushimanada get demoted and both Kawazoe and Shiden get promoted.

    We certainly have examples of 4-11 J9 being exchanged with promotion candidates no better than Kawazoe, and no one with those numbers has ever stayed up. It's similar for 5-10 from J11, so I don't think both staying is on the table.