Reonito

Placeholder to be updated after the Day 11 bouts.

The number is what they mathematically need for safety. The impossibility of reaching the target doesn't necessarily mean demotion...I guess I could use (X) instead as failed to reach target...bold means going down for sure, barring craziness like Nishikifuji last time out.

Akua got his kakenage today, so he can consider this basho a success despite his 2-4 record. And if that wasn't a double henka in the bout between Chiyoshoma and Hidenoumi, it sure was a nod in that direction. Chiyoshoma takes on Takerufuji tomorrow

Day 11 San'yaku vacation queue: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato (1?), Hiradoumi (2), Daieisho (2). It's looking increasingly likely that Kirishima will be the only holdover of the Sekiwake quartet, so if both Komusubi get kachi-koshi, whichever one of them has the better record will move up (with Daieisho holding the tiebreaker, perhaps underscoring the unfairness of not re-ordering them based on July records). So in all likelihood, one Komusubi slot will come open. San'yaku promotion queue: Oho, Wakamotoharu, Shodai, Ura, Wakatakakage. This list is not exhaustive, but these are the leading contenders.

Day 11 Makuuchi demotion queue: Kagayaki (4), Shirokuma (3), Nishikifuji (3), Kitanowaka (2), Onokatsu (2), Kinbozan (1), Bushozan (1). Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate (2), Shishi (2), Takerufuji (3). I am not listing Shimazuumi since he pulled out. Looks like at most 4 exchanges, and possibly some lucky survivors once again.

He's already safe by my math: even a 3-12 record at J5e computes to J14e.

Day 11 Juryo demotion queue: Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Kiryuko (5), Aoiyama (4), Oshoumi (3), Asanoyama (2), Daishoho (1). Wins needed for safety in parantheses; everyone else is already safe by my math. Kiryuko is already demotable, but could be passed by others and could certainly still stay with 4 more wins, though I'm not sure if he could stay with 3. I haven't bolded Asanoyama yet given the uncertainty in the number of promotees. As @Sakura notes above, any sekitori retirements (outside the group above) before the banzuke meeting would open up additional slots. Makushita promotion queue: Tochitaikai with a win, {Aonishiki, Wakaikari with a win, Chiyomaru}, {Nabatame with a win, Kototebakari, Daishomaru with a win}. The first curly bracket trio is ahead of the second curly bracket trio. The best-placed 6-0 rikishi, Ms16e Hatsuyama, is heartbreakingly one rung away from being eligible for promotion with a yusho. Seven rikishi are still in it with a chance, depending on how everything plays out at the division boundary down the stretch. Things kick off tomorrow with Chiyomaru vs. Oshoumi; the rest of the contenders will have to wait until at least Day 13.

Tin-foil had time?

Nothing has to happen ... and the reason we don't have more counterexamples is that the scenario requires a very specific and rare set of circumstances so there are not many examples either way. Specifically, since 1990, there have been only 3 instances of exactly 33/3 with double digits in each basho, and all 3 were obvious promotions with all 3 basho at sekiwake, so we just don’t have enough data.

In the most Chiyoshoma way possible

Kotozakura has to face his remaining san'yaku opponents in descending order from day 11. They're clearly sticking to a formula, but it would for sure have made sense not to have this high-profile bout so early!

This helps avoid that sort of thing.

The "rule" isn't a rule, it's a guideline, and you can find at least one counterexample. They don't have to do anything. And he isn't on an official ozeki run until they say so after the second basho of such a run, and give a target for the third, which they obviously won't do if they opt not to promote him this time.

They'd have discretion to go either way with that result. Quality of the sumo and timing of the losses matters: Takakeisho got absolutely demolished by Goeido on day 15, and apparently the shimpan were heard saying, "not with that sumo." I'd guess Onosato is more likely than not to be promoted with that result, and anything more would all but assure it.

We chatted about this before the basho. Given that this is his first stint in san'yaku, and he's fairly new to makuuchi, I don't think they'd hesitate leaving him at komusubi if there's no pressing reason other than the potential ozeki run to promote him. If he then pops off in Kyushu, they'll just ask for double digits at Hatsu. They famously didn't promote Takakeisho after 9-13-11 at K-K-S (with 10 at M3 before that run), so I don't see an issue here.

Onosato is actually on an Ozeki run with a good chance to complete it this basho. Hiradoumi may have started one last basho, and only if he can get to Sekiwake this time.

What else were they going to do? It was the lowest remaining matchup by rank that wasn't potentially being held for day 15.

Looks like Kaisho should be his next opponent on day 6...

Ah, thank you

As far as I can tell, this hasn't happened since the 1940s.

The decision and lack of review was egregious, but I'm okay with invoking Hanlon's razor to explain it.

Yeah, I really, really hope it doesn't.

https://hochi.news/articles/20240910-OHT1T51042.html?page=1

I guessed as much, but in that particular bout there were also multiple potential reviewable elements...

So where were you not going to go after the Shodai-Ura bout?