Reonito

Forcing a promotion under something like the current approach is really hard, and the one time a maegashira did it is pretty much the exception to all the rules.

It just doesn't seem to be something they do a lot for Makuuchi-Juryo, unless there's a numbers imbalance and it's convenient to set it up. The fact that they have to schedule everyone to fight all 15 days, unlike in the lower divisions, probably has something to do with this.

They don't usually do them when there's an even number of participants in Makuuchi.

Seems unlikely he'd get leapfrogged. If he loses, it ought to be Takayasu, unless he loses and WTK wins, in which case I'm not sure.

Would Hokutofuji at 3-12 necessarily be "ahead" of Otsuji at 6-9? They'd both compute to 17e, and even though Otsuji would have more wins, it might be better optics to drop the J14 and keep the J8.

Good on him if he manages to join the fairly rare group that converted a lower-half yusho and a spot in the promotion zone into actual promotion.

Day 14 wrap-up: Ozeki: Kotozakura has cleared kadoban and Onosato has 11 wins, which means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously, although 12 wins at Natsu is going to be a tough ask. And of course, an Onosato yusho would trigger a tsuna run, although given the low winning score, it would have to be followed up by a yusho at Natsu: no “equivalent” is likely to do it. Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-5) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (6-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by beating [checks notes] M15e Aonishiki (10-4) on the last day. The young Ukrainian’s 21st birthday celebration tomorrow will be sweetened by a special prize. K1w Abi (6-8) will be a maegashira at Natsu; he gets to play spoiler tomorrow against yusho race co-leader M4e Takayasu (11-3). K1e Kirishima (7-7) will have to beat [checks notes again] M18e Tokihayate (10-4) to stay Komusubi. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, replacing Abi. The other men in contention for promotion to the named ranks are the aforementioned Takayasu and M1w Wakamotoharu (8-6). If Oho and Kirishima both lose, then it’s straightforward—the two maegashira fill their slots. Otherwise, we’ll have to consider whether their records are strong enough to force open extra slots. Makuuchi/Juryo: The demotion of M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-12) is certain, and I don’t see any way M17w Shirokuma (5-9) can survive. M12e Takarafuji (3-11) would need a win and a lot of help from other results. Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Nishikigi ought to be safe if they win; none are paired up. We have three definite promotions: J1e Tamashoho (8-6) and J3e Roga (10-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi, and J2e Kayo (9-5) will make his top-division debut after coming close in the past two basho. J3w Tochitaikai (8-6) and J5w Fujiseiun (9-5) can still reach promotable records by winning tomorrow. J6w Hidenoumi (9-5) is not completely out of the picture, and neither is J14w Kusano (13-1) if he can beat Fujiseiun. Juryo/Makushita: Ms1e Miyagi (4-3) won his crossover bout with J8e Hokutofuji (3-11) and is guaranteed his sekitori debut. Ms1w Ishizaki (3-4) lost to Kazekeno, so he’s out of the running. The remaining promotion order is as follows: Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-3), Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he loses. The only certain demotion is injury victim J12w Kiryuko, who’ll be replaced by Miyagi. J14e Otsuji (5-9) faces Mita tomorrow in what is likely an exchange bout, and Daiamami will try to seal Hokutofuji’s demotion. Absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on other results. Everyone else is safe. So we’ll have anywhere from one to four exchanges. The scenarios are complicated, as detailed by Asashosakari above.

I don't love the "invisible line", but to be fair he did only fight Tochimaru in the promotion zone. And the line has been crossed very rarely, even in recent cases like this when Kazekeno was operationally in the top 10 and Daishoho had a rank-record combo that would normally send someone down.

They really need to throw Aonishiki a bone on senshuraku so he can get his 10 and his well-deserved kanto-sho. Either that, or give it to him with 9 if they keep throwing him to the wolves when he's no really in the yusho race.

I figured I might as well copy over my latest Tachiai post for completeness and ease of reading: Ozeki: with his 8th win, Kotozakura has cleared kadoban. Combined with Onosato’s 10 wins, this means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one or two more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously. Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-4) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (5-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by winning out. Kirishima and Abi both sport 6-7 records at Komusubi and will need to win out to hold rank. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, regardless of whether or not any slots come open. Yusho race leader M4e Takayasu (11-2) should also have an undeniable promotion claim unless he collapses down the stretch. The other Onami brother, M1w Wakamotoharu (7-6) needs one more win to have a shot, though his chances will depend on other results. Others still in the conversation are M6w Takerufuji (9-4) and M7w Tamawashi (9-4). Makuuchi/Juryo: The only certain demotion is M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-11). M17w Shirokuma (5-8) is on the brink, and even winning out won’t necessarily save him. M12e Takarafuji (3-10) and M10e Nishikigi (2-11) both need two wins for safety, while Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Shonannoumi need one apeice. Everyone else is guaranteed a spot in the top division in May, but the number of exchanges is still highly uncertain. J1e Tamashoho (8-5) and J3e Roga (9-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi. J2e Kayo (8-5) will earn a top-division debut with one more win, and may have already done enough depending on how the demotion candidates fare down the stretch. Also in the running are J6w Hidenoumi (9-4), J3w Tochitaikai (7-6), and J5w Fujiseiun (8-5). His loss to Kayo probably knocked out record-setting rookie and last man in the division J14w Kusano (12-1) out of the promotion picture; he can console himself with a Juryo yusho and a spot much higher on the banzuke in May. Juryo/Makushita: Little has been decided here. The promotion order is roughly as follows: Ms1e Miyagi (3-3) if he wins, Ms1w Ishizaki (3-3) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-2), Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2). Anyone on this list could still end up first in the promotion queue, or low enough to miss out. On the other side of the line between heaven and hell, injury victim J12w Kiryuko is certain to go down, J14e Otsuji (4-9) is all-but-certain to join him, and absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on the number and strength of the promotion cases. J8e Hokutofuji (3-10) needs one more win and possibly two in order to avoid dropping from the sekitori ranks for the first time since his Juryo debut in 2016. Nabatame and Kazekeno are the other endangered incumbents; they’ll be safe with one more win. Tomorrow, Miyagi and Ishizaki will fight crossover bouts against Hokutofuji and Kazekeno, respectively, while Mudoho will try to strengthen his promotion claim against Ms9e Kyokukaiyu. Daiamami and Mita’s final bouts will take place on senshuraku, with their opponents being decided based on how the promotion/demotion picture looks after tomorrow’s action.

Yeah puzzled but that bit of scheduling

And it looks like they're holding Daiamami and Mita in reserve for day 15 depending on how day 14 plays out.

And no day 13 crossover bouts, interesting.

It's certainly possible, but he'd have to lose at least 3 of 4 and have other results go against him (actually, he'll probably get matched up with promotion contenders, so his future should be largely in his own hands).

And last but not least, san'yaku: O1w Kotozakura (6-5) needs to go 2-2 or better from here to save his rank. S1e Daieisho (8-3) has successfully defended his, and it looks like the Ozeki run is on for Natsu. San'yaku demotion queue: K1w Abi (4-7), S1w Oho (4-7), K1e Kirishima (5-6). Abi is one loss from losing Komusubi, after just holding on to that rank despite a 7-8 score at Hatsu. Oho likewise can't afford any more losses if he wants to stay Sekiwake, but because he got the nod for that rank over Kirishima, both can afford one more loss before dropping back down into the maegashira ranks. It seems highly unlikely that Kirishima could hang on to K1w with a 7-8. San'yaku demotion queue: M4e Takayasu (9-2), M1w Wakamotoharu (7-4), M1e Wakatakakage (6-5), M6w Takerufuji (9-2), several others with faint hopes. The Onami brothers are gunning for an immediate re-promotion; they currently trail Takayasu, but there could well be room for all three depending on results down the stretch.

Juryo-Makuuchi: Juryo promotion queue: J1e Tamashoho (7-4), J3e Roga (8-3), J2e Kayo (6-5), J6w Hidenoumi (8-3), J5w Fujiseiun (7-4), J14w Kusano (11-0), J3w Tochitaikai (5-6). Tamashoho and Roga look set to make their Juryo sojourns brief. Everyone else is a bit of a long shot, and I don't think we'll come anywhere near the 6 promotions we saw last time. Could rookie Kusano extend his record-breaking run to go undefeated and earn promotion from J14? Only 5 men have gone 15-0 in Juryo, and all earned promotion, but the lowest-ranked was J11e Baruto. Endo is the lowest-ranked promotee; he made it from J13w with a 14-1 yusho. Makuuchi demotion queue: M13e Nishikifuji (0-2-9), M17w Shirokuma (4-7), M17e Mitakeumi (4-7), M10e Nishikigi (1-10), several others who need one or two wins for safety. The answer to "what would it take to get Nishikifuji demoted?" unfortunately turned out to be injury. And despite that precedent, Shirokuma has little if any room for error. Mitakeumi and Nishikigi are in only slightly better shape. Mitakeumi has spent only two basho in Juryo in his career, and only four below Makuuchi, where he's been a constant presence since his 2015 debut. Are we seeing the end of one of the better sumo careers of the past decade?

Yesterday there was a chance that a 13-2 could have been a J, but I don't think they would have considered it an equivalent: finishing behind a maegashira who beat you in regulation is very different from losing to a fellow ozeki with the same 13-1 record on the final day. It's not just about the number of wins and the J.

He went airborne at about the same time, would have been tough to overrule the call.

The crystal ball still works

Seriously, what was that? Isamiashi I guess?

There had been only two in the modern era, both in the 1980s, and their careers couldn't have been more different.

He had the misfortune of picking up his 8th win on day 9

They really don't like to deviate from the banzuke-based scheduling based on who someone is rather than their rank, especially before they get their KK. I expect he'll get Onosato next, who has an open spot on his dance card on day 12.

True, you have to click on "expand result" and check for those manually, or I guess you can check "fusen" under kimarite in a separate query and subtract those. It would be a great db feature to be able to exclude kimarite and/or include multiple kimarite in the bout queries, unless that's already possible and I just haven't figured out how.

Midorifuji has 7 of the 14 basho with at least 4 katasukashi wins (and he holds the top spot with 6). And he's got 5 days left to add to his 3 this basho so far (Shodai did an excellent job of escaping being victim #4).