Reonito

Day 11: Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Tochitaikai (3), Aoiyama (2), Kayo (2), Chiyosakae (2), Tohakuryu (1), Fujiseiun (1), Hakuyozan (1). Wins needed for safety in parentheses. Tsuhimanada is toast. Nabatame is already demotable; he could conceivably still stay if he wins out and there's a better (worse?) demotion candidate, but this seems exceedingly unlikely. Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (6-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-2), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3). Daiseizan is a lock. He will fight Ms54e Kurohimeyama for the yusho; the only notable thing about the latter seems to be his especially unwieldy shikona. With at least two openings in Juryo, Kiryuko is now also a lock. Oshoumi with a win would have a fairly strong case, but he will need someone in Juryo to stumble. Everyone else is already a long shot and listed only because they aren't mathematically out of contention yet and the bottom could fall out in Juryo.

He should be safe for sure with 2, and could survive with one depending on the rest of the exchange picture.

Onosho is also toast; Takayasu is on the bubble but should just be okay given the current state of the exchange picture.

I jumped the gun, it's here but quite rudimentary, please go ahead and add your usual excellent contributions:

Posting this here in case people are looking for it; fairly bare-bones but it's a start now that we're through Day 10.

Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (5-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (4-1), Ms1e Kazekeno (2-2-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (2-3), Ms4e Otsuji (2-3), Ms5e Akua (3-2), Ms5w Wakaikari (2-3). Daiseizan should be a lock. He fights Ms19w Hitoshi tomorrow for one of the spots in the yusho final; the other semifinal bout pits 18-year-old Ms40w Tanji against Ms54e Kurohimeyama. Kiryuko got one of the unluckiest non-promotions last time, and would be extremely unlucky to miss out again, but another win should make it a certainty. He gets Ms6w Satorufuji tomorrow. Kazekeno returns from whatever kept him out of action yesterday; he needs to win out for near-automatic immediate re-promotion. Oshoumi certainly helped his own re-promotion chances today by beating Tsushimanada, but probably needs one more win and some measure of luck. Everyone else is already a long shot and listed only because they aren't mathematically out of contention yet and the bottom could fall out in Juryo.

It takes 11 to create an extra slot.

"In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them." -John Von Neumann

Atamifuji will not face the Yokozuna.

At the moment, there's a distinct shortage of komusubi candidates, so maybe this is for the best ... 7 days to go, I know ...

I think he's fine already, unless the promotion/demotion picture gets crazy. We're already down to maybe 4 guys in Ms who could push him down by winning out, some of them will pick up losses, and there's no shortage of demotion candidates in lower Juryo.

I recall Asanoyama being relatively injury-free before his suspension. You'd think the time off would have enabled him to fully rehab any lingering issues and work on his strength, so I didn't expect him to fall apart like this after coming back. I wonder if it's age, bad luck, or some effect of the layoff...

Yeah, when it's torikumi order vs banzuke order is a key nuance of the game.

Also, I know it's technically legal, but that elbow uppercut is a recipe for

What are the odds that a 9-6 Kirishima fights a 7-7 Takakeisho on Day 15? (Like March 2019, but with Takakeisho's role reversed)

I remember March 2019 when Ichinojo went 14-1 by suddenly using his size to turn himself into a hatakikomi machine.

Not sure it's a question of "falling for it" as much as when someone that tall and strong grabs you by the back of the neck and yanks, there's not a lot you can do.

3-time yusho winner and former Ozeki Mitakeumi showed up!

Work obligations will once again force me to sit out the July basho. If this is acceptable to the rijichō, I would like to ask for latitude until September. I will either enter Aki or announce my intai in advance of that tournament.

Not exactly this, but 4-3 Ms5w going up over 5-2 Ms6e quite recently (edit: I see that I'm late to this )

I really hate this. Satorufuji becomes the first 6-1 from as high as Ms14 to be ranked outside the promotion zone in the six-basho era. Plenty of precedent for Ms1 3-4 going to Ms6 or lower.

I went back and forth a lot on whether they could drop Tobizaru just half a rank, and ultimately convinced myself that this was the most likely option given the alternatives, but I don't feel great about it.

But 3 instances of Sekiwake getting demoted to M2 more recently. I did put him at M2w rather than M2e given how extremely lenient even that is, but pulling up Shonann or Takanosho seems like too big of a stretch.

I'm not sure how much they care, I feel like it's more "whom can we reasonably shove into the next open slot?" That usually means such gaps are minimal, but not always.

I found a brief window last night.