Reonito

I mean, J7 isn't horrible, and far from what I think will be the worst banzuke luck.

I'm really glad we're not playing GTJB—assuming the absent guys are frozen, there are 5 other rikishi who really belong in the top 10 slots, and 3 slots in which to put them.

I've encountered some puzzlers a little higher than that.

I'd also add 18 year old Atamifuji, 6-1 in his first basho, Jonokuchi 25E, who beat Arauma for the Jonokuchi yusho in a playoff.

The way the other results shook out, I think 4-3 would have found him in Juryo. As it is, that (last) slot should go to Ichiyamamoto. And there are lots of candidates for the Makushita promotion zone, so the 3-4 will probably drop Roga below it, meaning he's likely to need a 7-0 in March to make Juryo. What a difference one win makes!

Pretty unusual, though it did happen this past July. (Edit: it's more unusual than the query suggests, as some of those instances had 4 junior sanyaku with 9+ wins, but there were extra slots.)

And a trip to Makushita ... or intai.

Fair enough, though that's literally never been done by someone ranked below Ozeki in both tournaments.

1. They haven't said a word about it (unlike in Terunofuji's case). 2. The Kyokai is loath to do anything they've never done before. 3. Daieisho only has 3 prior san'yaku appearances, 2 ending in MK, with the most recent being a 5-10 campaign at Sekiwake, and has never been mentioned in the same sentence as "Ozeki" before, so he is not the kind of rikishi who's likely to get the benefit of the doubt.

I don't think it works that way. Rank is rank, and there's no "memory" in the system of the circumstances under which it was achieved. Wakahanada was very unlucky to go from M4 to M3 after a 9-6, and could have easily made san'yaku on a different banzuke, but them's the breaks. In his case, a 14-1 yusho wasn't enough to force the issue; I wasn't following then but I doubt it even came up.

There's absolutely no question they will. I believe @Asashosakari concurs.

If it's not on the banzuke, it didn't happen.

There's never been an Ozeki promotion in the 6 basho era without at least the last two tournaments ranked in san'yaku. The closest parallel is Wakahanada in 1992-1993, who went M4 9-6, M3 10-5, K 14-1 Y and did not get promoted. He also went S 10-5 in the following basho without getting promoted, before finally forcing the issue with S 13-2 D. So I say not before May.

Went with probability over intuition but at least my non-pick was on the record.

There's actually a whole research paper about it!

I guess, with Endo also taken, I'll just stick with this and take the likely tie, rather than throw a Hail Mary like Ichinojo (who is hard to throw ).

Newbie question here, but how do the final results this time translate into the rankings for the next basho? Trying to figure out the risk/reward ratio for my possible picks.

HBD!

looks like you need to trim some text from yesterday's post from the end of today's

While I'm at it, and assuming it's not against the rules, I'm going to pencil in 15. Tamawashi But I reserve the right to change my mind based on Day 13 results and Day 14 torikumi.

Tamawashi makes a lot of sense, but it sounds like I'm supposed to pick someone different than the other co-leaders, so let's go with 14. Endo (I'm 17 time zones behind Japan)

The wildcard is what to do with Tochinoshin.

13. Tokushoryu I can see what @Gurowake is thinking though, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Kyokai did something else entirely.

I see. Recent precedents aren't super-encouraging, but they all involve withdrawals, so who knows.

Trying to work out my pick but the db is down.