Reonito

Junior san'yaku Sekiwake: Abi, Onosato, Kirishima, Takakeisho. Komusubi: Daieisho, Hiradoumi, maaaybe Takanosho. The only questions here concern any potential re-ordering of KK rikishi within a rank. I don't think any of us take the possibility of an extra slot being created for Takanosho very seriously.

Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada, Nabatame, Tochitaikai. Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (6-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (5-2). This worked out very cleanly—3 up, 3 down.

Final Results Makuuchi demotion candidates: Asanoyama, Nishikifuji, Chiyoshoma, Onosho, Takarafuji, Takayasu. Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu, Shirokuma, Kitanowaka, Shishi, Tamashoho. Onokatsu and Shirokuma will replace Asanoyama and Nishikifuji. Kitanowaka's score should be good enough to push down Chiyoshoma, though I'm not sure it's 100%. Either Shishi or Tamashoho could potentially go up if they don't want to set a post-kosho precedent of keeping a winless M5.

It's not as good as ozumo, sure, but for me at least that's not down to the lack of harite.

I mean, it's banned in amateur sumo and that seems to work fine...

Just saw Nishinoryu's knockout of Kusano. Super-scary. IMO the sport could really use some rules against full contact blows to the head.

in

I saw it. I'd love for them to at least have a look at it but none of the judges seemed to think it was maybe even close. Talk about a blind spot. Torinaoshi would have been the right call, I think.

If they bring up Shimanoumi...

Junior san'yaku Sekiwake: Abi, Onosato, Takakeisho, Kirishima with a win on Day 15. Komusubi: Daieisho, Hiradoumi, Kirishima with a loss on Day 15, maaaybe Takanosho with a win/yusho if they want to be generous.

See the post above. I'd guess 12-3 Shishi replaces Onosho, but maybe not if Chiyoshoma loses.

Makuuchi demotion candidates: Nishikifuji (3), Asanoyama (2), Chiyoshoma (2), Onosho (2), Takarafuji (1), Takayasu (1). Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (0), Tokihayate (1), Shirokuma (1), Kitanowaka (2), Shishi (2). Onokatsu is still the only Juryo man with a promotable record! Nishikifuji now seems impossible to keep, and I don't see any way they can keep Asanoyama. Tokihayate would be promoted with a win against Shirokuma, but would be make-koshi with a loss. Kitanowaka likewise needs a win to have any shot at promotion. In any case, only two rikishi can end up with promotable records, and at most five can be plausibly promoted (the next-best option would be a 9-6 J6, assuming Shimanoumi or Tamashoho win tomorrow). So I tend to agree with @Sakura that Takayasu will stay, and so will Takarafuji even with a loss. Likewise, Chiyoshoma should be fine with a win. What to do with Chiyoshoma if he loses, as well as with Onosho, isn't at all obvious, and will depend on the outcomes of the Day 15 Juryo bouts.

Day 14: Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Chiyosakae (1), Tochitaikai (1). Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3). Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. We have two potential exchange bouts: Kotokuzan vs. Chiyosakae and Oshoumi vs. Tochitaikai. Both incumbents would reach safety with a win. Oshoumi's case with a win would likely be strong enough to push down Tochitaikai. Would Kotokuzan's be strong enough to push down Chiyosakae? The latter would actually be in slightly worse shape by the numbers than Tochitaikai, so it would be a bit odd to keep him. Of course, they could send down Chiyosakae, promote Oshoumi, and snub Kotokuzan. It'll be interesting to see what they decide to do.

As we've seen before, what the torikumi committee tees up and what the banzuke committee decides aren't always the same.

I wouldn't dream of posting before coffee

You are correct as usual; I noted that they were two wins apart but didn't check the ranks. Technically Takanosho is also guaranteed to finish ahead of Mitakeumi purely by the math, but the difference in rank could well put an 8-7 M2w ahead of a 10-5 M6e (not that it's likely that any of this will actually come into play).

Junior san'yaku Sekiwake: Onosato, Takakeisho, winner of Day 14 bout between Kirishima and Abi, loser of that bout with a win on Day 15. Komusubi: Hiradoumi, loser of Kirishima vs. Abi with a loss on Day 15, Daieisho with one more win, one of Takanosho/Mitakeumi/Tobizaru/Oho if both Kirishima and Abi keep Sekiwake and Daieisho loses out.

Makuuchi demotion candidates: Nishikifuji (3), Asanoyama (2), Chiyoshoma (2), Onosho (2), Takarafuji (1), Nishikigi (1), Takayasu (1). Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (0), Tokihayate (1), Shorokuma (2), Kitanowaka (2), Shishi (3). Onokatsu finally became the first Juryo man with a promotable record, and with few promotion candidates able to pass him and no shortage of demotion candidates, he is set to make his Makuuchi debut at Aki. At the moment, he'd replace Nishikifuji, but the incumbent can improve his position vis-à-vis absent Asanoyama with one more win. I don't see any way they can keep Asanoyama, but everyone else could potentially stay if there's no reasonable candidate to replace them. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out down the stretch, and we're likely to see some mix of lucky escapes and unconventional promotions.

Day 13: Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Kayo (1), Aoiyama (1), Chiyosakae (1), Tochitaikai (1). Wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses. Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-3), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3). Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. Akua's loss to Aoiyama today, along with victories by Kayo and Tochitaikai, increased the likelihood of only two exchanges (Tohakuryu also removed himself from any possible danger). There is no relevant action in Makushita tomorrow, and none of the endangered Juryo rikishi are matched up head-to-head, so depending on how they fare tomorrow, and torikumi committee can decide which, if any, exchange bouts to set up for Day 15.

Day 12: Juryo demotion queue: Tsushimanada (X), Nabatame (X), Kayo (2), Aoiyama (2), Tochitaikai (2), Chiyosakae (1), Tohakuryu (1). Wins needed for mathematical safety in parentheses. Makushita promotion candidates: Ms2e Daiseizan (6-0), Ms1w Kiryuko (5-1), Ms3w Oshoumi (4-2), Ms3e Kotokuzan (3-3), Ms5e Akua (4-2), Ms5w Wakaikari (3-3). Tsuhimanada and Nabatame are toast. They'll be replaced by Daiseizan and Kiryuko. We'll see if there are any other exchanges; tomorrow's crossover bout between Akua and Aoiyama is presumably the first of several that will determine that.

Yup, an 8-7 sandwiched between two strong basho isn't a dealbreaker.

Fair, maybe they want to save the excitement for the weekend

They're not exactly in the yusho race, so yeah ... though the scheduling should be more record-based in the remaining days.

On the contrary, he is doing exactly what the system forces him to do.

Makuuchi demotion candidates: Chiyoshoma (4), Nishikifuji (3), Nishikigi (3), Asanoyama (2), Roga (2), Takarafuji (2), Onosho (2), Bushozan (1), Hokutofuji (1), Takayasu (1). Chiyoshoma can't afford any more losses, while the two Nishikis have minimal breathing room. Of the absentees, Asanoyama should be going down for sure, and Onosho would need a lot of luck to stay; all seven winless M5s post-kosho ended up in Juryo, including, most recently, Onosho himself back in 2018. Three of the seven claimed the Juryo yusho in the subsequent basho, including Onosho! Juryo promotion candidates: Onokatsu (1), Tokihayate (2), Shorokuma (3). Several others can reach promotable numbers only by winning out. Onokatsu should seal the deal by if he beats Roga tomorrow. San'yaku: As @Sakura noted yesterday, all the incumbents look likely to stay, and none of the maegashira are exactly beating down the door, so we may well not see any promotions for the first time since Natsu 2022.