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Everything posted by Reonito
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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Speaking of Hatsuyama, two retirements and an expansion of Makuuchi and Juryo did lead them to promote a 7-0 Ms16 once upon a time, along with a certain 6-1 Ms9... -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
DO NOT speak that into existence. -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Wait, are you saying Asanoyama is likely to stay, or am I misreading? -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
This is probably our best comparable: the bottom completely fell out of Juryo, with 7 (!) demotions, and absent M3 Takanoiwa got to stay, after they promoted 4-3 Ms6 Enho and 5-2 Ms7 Takayoshitoshi. They seem to have drawn the line at promoting a 4-3 Ms7 or 5-2 Ms8 (but there may have been ... ahem ... special considerations for Takanoiwa given the reasons behind his absence). -
Only one of those to previously accomplish this (Kotonishiki) had that opportunity.
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They could just give all 3 to Onosato and call it a day Seriously though, WTK makes sense and is a good comeback story. But we've had basho with few prizes...
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Out of reacts but 100%
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He will also extend his own record of 4 consecutive sansho since debut, and tie the overall record of 5 in a row.
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For a veteran with a career high of sekiwake? I don't see it...
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Even going frame by frame, I don't see any clear evidence.
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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Day 13 Sekiwake/Komusubi openings: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato assuming he's promoted, Hiradoumi unless his wins his last two. We should be looking at Kirishima and Daieisho at Sekiwake, and either one or two new Komusubi. By beating Oho, Wakamotoharu took the lead in the race for the first open spot, with Oho, Shodai, Ura, and Wakatakakage still in contention. Makuuchi openings: Takakeisho, Kagayaki, Shirokuma, Kitanowaka (2), Nishikifuji (2), Onokatsu (1), Kinbozan (1), Bushozan (1). I've bolded Kagayaki, though I guess after what they did in July, we can't be certain a 3-12 from M11 would guarantee demotion And given that and the lack of promotion cases, incumbents could easily stay without hitting the numerical safety targets. Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate, Takerufuji (1), Shishi (2), Asakoryu (3). Shishi has a good shot of going up even with one more win. I've left J8e Asakoryu on the list in case he wins out to go 11-4 (just short of being promotable by the numbers) and they decide to be a little less lenient with the incumbents. Juryo openings: Takakeisho, Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Oshoumi (X), Kiryuko (X), Asanoyama (X), Aoiyama (2), Daishoho (1). Three definite openings, and only 3 kachi-koshi in the Makushita promotion zone so far, though four more can get there over the weekend. In any case, J9e Daishoho is almost certainly safe even if he loses twice and drops to 4-11. Makushita promotion queue: Chiyomaru, Tochitaikai with a win, Wakaikari with a win, Aonishiki, Nabatame with a win, Daishomaru with a win, Kototebakari. I'm being conservative with the bolding here, but I don't think they'll keep Asanoyama over Aonishiki even if the latter loses, so Aonishiki is very likely going up, and he can make certain by beating Aoiyama tomorrow. Daishomaru and Nabatame would be out of the running with losses to Oshoumi and Kiryuko, respectively, but even if they win, they'll have to wait to see what happens on Day 15, when (I presume) Tochitaikai, Wakaikari, and Kototebakari take their cracks at the 3 most endangered active incumbents. -
It's not his style, so I'm wondering if the rikishi decided to take matters into their own hands!
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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
So is there a better shorthand for K/S than always spelling it out? I've used "junior sanyaku" sometimes, which feels a little clunky and I'm not sure people know what it refers to... -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
exactly, that's why it's not a "demotion queue" (we often use san'yaku as shorthand for K/S, though technically it does include the higher ranks as well) -
M13 Nishikigi (9-3) fights a komusubi, while M7 Wakatakakage (9-3) fights M9 Oshoma?
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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Yeah, though winning his last 3 will be a tall order. -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Day 12 San'yaku vacation queue: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato (1?), Hiradoumi (2), Daieisho (1). San'yaku promotion queue: Oho, Wakamotoharu, Shodai, Ura, Wakatakakage. This list is not exhaustive, but these are the leading contenders. -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Day 12 Makuuchi demotion queue: Kagayaki (X), Shirokuma (3), Kitanowaka (2), Onokatsu (2), Nishikifuji (2), Kinbozan (1), Bushozan (1). Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate (1), Shishi (2), Takerufuji (2). -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Day 12 Juryo demotion queue: Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Kiryuko (X), Aoiyama (3), Oshoumi (3), Asanoyama (X), Daishoho (1). Wins needed for safety in parantheses; bold = certain demotion; X = can't reach numerical safety target but could still luck out. Makushita promotion queue: Tochitaikai with a win, {Chiyomaru, Aonishiki, Wakaikari with a win}, {Nabatame with a win, Kototebakari, Daishomaru with a win}. The only change here is Chiyomaru's win over Oshoumi; he can finish no worse than 3rd in the promotion queue so I've bolded him. No relevant action on Day 13, so I guess they'll look at the demotion contenders tomorrow and set up the weekend bouts accordingly. -
This was possibly the most egregious one I've seen—Kayo was standing outside the tawara with both feet when he shoved him in the back. I don't know why he isn't being admonished more. He's on a short list of wrestlers whose intai I really look forward to.
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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
The number is what they mathematically need for safety. The impossibility of reaching the target doesn't necessarily mean demotion...I guess I could use (X) instead as failed to reach target...bold means going down for sure, barring craziness like Nishikifuji last time out. -
Akua got his kakenage today, so he can consider this basho a success despite his 2-4 record. And if that wasn't a double henka in the bout between Chiyoshoma and Hidenoumi, it sure was a nod in that direction. Chiyoshoma takes on Takerufuji tomorrow
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Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Day 11 San'yaku vacation queue: Takakeisho, Abi, Onosato (1?), Hiradoumi (2), Daieisho (2). It's looking increasingly likely that Kirishima will be the only holdover of the Sekiwake quartet, so if both Komusubi get kachi-koshi, whichever one of them has the better record will move up (with Daieisho holding the tiebreaker, perhaps underscoring the unfairness of not re-ordering them based on July records). So in all likelihood, one Komusubi slot will come open. San'yaku promotion queue: Oho, Wakamotoharu, Shodai, Ura, Wakatakakage. This list is not exhaustive, but these are the leading contenders. -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
Day 11 Makuuchi demotion queue: Kagayaki (4), Shirokuma (3), Nishikifuji (3), Kitanowaka (2), Onokatsu (2), Kinbozan (1), Bushozan (1). Juryo promotion queue: Chiyoshoma, Tokihayate (2), Shishi (2), Takerufuji (3). I am not listing Shimazuumi since he pulled out. Looks like at most 4 exchanges, and possibly some lucky survivors once again. -
Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2024
Reonito replied to Reonito's topic in Honbasho Talk
He's already safe by my math: even a 3-12 record at J5e computes to J14e.