Reonito

We have examples of a 4-3 Ms5w getting promoted ahead of a 5-2 Ms6e; not sure if this would still apply for 4-3 vs. 6-1. There's this counterexample, but it's from 1983.

Tokushoryu and Tochimusashi are toast. Kotokuzan, Shimanoumi, and Tsushimanada should all be toast with a loss. Tsushimanada and Shimanoumi are safe with a win. For Kotokuzan, a win would put him on the bubble, depending where he is in the demotion queue. I think he'd go down for Tokihayate if he's 3rd, maybe for Kawazoe if he's 4th, and almost certainly not for Shiden or Chiyonoumi if he's 5th.

The YDC has no jurisdiction here; the Y stands for Yokozuna. And the NSK would never commit themselves like that, though Kiribayama is a very straightforward promotion with 10-11, depending on tomorrow. Daieisho might be in similar shape, depending on how they count his 10-5 at M1, while the other two do need something like a 13-2 yusho, unless they're desperate because Keisho can't clear kadoban.

9-6 M1w -> M1e is pretty much what I would expect with no open slot. 10-5 M1w -> M1e has never happened, and Daieisho just went to K2e, so it'll be interesting how they handle it if it comes to pass.

Nah they're not over-demoting anyone now that there's room for Ichi and Asa.

These days I understand one can just ask ChatGPT to write the code

I think he locked in the kanto-sho today by getting double digits.

This stinks.

It's past the deadline. Not sure it changes anything, except finding a suitable opponent for Hoshoryu.

Yeah I've never quite been able to translate that into numbers, or even clear principles.

"Importing" = copy/paste

I'm sure I could adjust the formula, but I just treat a 0 on the west side as a 1.

Ah, that's what I have in the spreadsheet, it doesn't always handle things like E/W near the bottom gracefully, but otherwise it works.

My error rate dropped since I started importing the wins from sumodb directly into my spreadsheet, instead of updating them manually.

True, he's just the only one so far who'd definitely go down even if he won out if there were no better demotion candidates. I wouldn't be surprised if there were only 2 promotions.

True. Enho is a lot younger, so he has time on his side. Losing by this kimarite seems to be a hallmark of lightweight rikishi, for obvious reasons.

He's also looking forward to future battles between Ochiai and Hokuseiho in the top division

Pretty unusual that the san'yaku promotion contenders have to hope for wins by the incumbents.

Okay, 15. Midorifuji I don't think this will happen, but it's not completely impossible if (1) Midorifuji wins tomorrow and (2) for some reason they decide to give him Kiribayama and match Daieisho with Kinbozan (who'd also need to win tomorrow for this to be even mildly plausible), instead of going with the obvious Kiri-Daieisho bout and pairing Midori with Wakamotoharu, Shodai, or Abi.

I mean, it's going to be Daieisho, by both tradition and yusho race logic. I do see a very remote alternative, which I could pick in the interests of keeping the game alive, at least on paper, if @Jakusotsu confirms that I won't lose anything (other than the JY) by doing so, and that it's not against the spirit of my duties as a Yokozuna.

I'd include 3-3 Ms5e Chiyonoumi for completeness, as he is in the promotion zone. We should be able to tell from the day 15 schedule how they're thinking about this, depending on day 14 results in juryo, of course. Tomorrow Kawazoe fights Shimanoumi with a chance to both secure promotion and open up another slot.

Shodai and Abi can easily pass Midori at this point. They're two wins behind but 4 and 3.5 ranks higher, respectively, with two bouts to go and probably easier opposition.

As others have said, 14w Bushozan even with a 6-9 would certainly be exchanged with either of the juryo leaders, so one promotion is definite. Hopefully the schedulers can figure out how to arrange the bouts so that a second one opens up from among Azumaryu (must win out), Mitoryu, Oho, and Tsurugisho (each of whom would be demotable without one more win).

Yeah I'm not really arguing otherwise. I guess my uncertainty is more along the lines of, if no one has a great case for ozeki, but Keisho can't get 8 and they need to mint one, but don't want to make more than one soft promotion, would they value being in san'yaku for all 3 basho higher than having an extra win or two, but at M. Let's say 10M 11K 10S vs. 8 K 11K 11 S. Pretty niche scenario.

It can, but it's far from common, which is why I'm not sure how 10 at M compares to 8/9 at K.