Reonito

So the lack of such bouts is consistent with a lack of opportunities, without any need to invoke the schedulers going out of their way to avoid them (presumably, if they were, we wouldn't see the current day 13/14 matchups).

Only a handful of instances of two 7-7 ozeki going into day 15; I haven't examined them but entirely possible they couldn't be matched up.

exactly!

When "obviously wrong" means "impossible."

15. Myogiryu

Well, we agree on the 7 likely candidates ... which probably means they'll do something else entirely.

Good point!

If Hokuseiho wins tomorrow, he pushes down Daishomaru, so I guess Nishikawa goes up either way, either as second in line or as third but with 3 slots open.

Ozeki need updating. I think at this point only Kiribayama and Takanosho have a shot at san'yaku. Going to be crowded at M1 if they fully protect Ichinojo's rank!

Hidenoumi could yet end up behind Chiyomaru and Ryuden (at least) in the promotion queue.

So we probably have two open slots in juryo already: Shohozan is definitely going down, and Chiyoarashi will probably not be under-demoted given Nishikawa's promotion case. Three others are in danger: Daishomaru, Kitanowaka, and Takakento. So that's at most 5 promotion slots. Oshoma should take the first. Then it's roughly as above: Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. All of them would be ahead of a 4-3 Roga and Ms5's, so they are now mathematically out and will need a KK just to stay in the promotion zone in July. Looks like Hokuseiho gets his shot to clinch promotion tomorrow against Daishomaru. I assume Kinbozan and Chiyosakae will get their cracks at endangered juryo opponents on senshuraku.

I'm going to wait for Gurowake and Sakura, and take a wild stab at something different.

And even with a 6-9 at J12 he might not be safe depending on how the rest of the exchange picture develops.

While I agree that Terutsuyoshi is the most likely choice, it's not a complete lock, I need to pass both of my fellow yokozuna, and Day 15 is a total crapshoot, so I think I'll gamble now on: 14. Kotokuzan

Is that ... Kaisei?

I think an extra win counts for more than half a rank. Here's a reasonable precedent, though it's from a while ago.

Takanosho could force open an extra slot, though there are no sufficiently recent precedents to know what it would take. Oshoma's case with a win should be strong enough to push down Shohozan, if that were the only option. The promotion order for any additional open slots ought to be Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. If somehow more slots opened, Roga might be in contention with a win; the demotion cases are likely to be borderline enough that the Ms5's are almost certainly out of luck.

I think given that the leading contender is Takanosho, and the only sanyaku he hasn't faced is Waka, that'll be on day 13. Not sure they'll deviate from the Teru-Takakeisho fight, especially as both have fought Kiribayama already, and there are matchups among the 8-4 maegashira still available.

My recollection (from a Chris Gould video?) was that he stayed on because no kabu was available to him, but I don't remember the details and have no idea how accurate this was.

So do we think Shohozan will be okay? He and Kaisei are the ones I'm most concerned about at the moment, and while the Brazilian should be able to hang on as sekitori for at least one more basho, things look really dire for Shohozan.

Two days left after this to roll the dice... 13. Takarafuji

That could work lower down the banzuke, but a 7-8 K1e would naturally go to M1e so not much space there either.

Not sure what that would be. His banzuke movement will be pretty deterministic based on KK vs. MK and whether any sekiwake slots come open. The only potential latitude could be in how far he'd drop were he finish MK, and they're pretty lenient with komusubi already.

If Hokutofuji doesn't pick up a few more wins, I for one am not looking forward to the July edition

It would be Daieisho if they stuck with the pattern, but it's day 12 so... 12. Endo