Reonito

Nice to see the current/future Ozeki trio leading.

Excellent analysis. Presumably his tenure in seven tournaments at the rank so far, including two kadobans and one demotion to sekiwake, plus the most recent 7-8 and 8-4-3 results, would argue against promotion, but let's see him pull off a strong yusho first.

Probably Takayasu. One more win from one rank lower, plus his past record in san'yaku.

According to the source of all knowledge, Wikipedia, "A wrestler at the rank of sekiwake will be considered for promotion if he has achieved a total of at least 33 wins over the three most recent tournaments, including ten or more wins in the tournament just completed." That's also the way I've always heard the guidelines stated. Of course, the next sentence in that article beings with "Promotion is discretionary and there are no hard-and-fast rules..."

I believe double-digits in the third basho of the run is an absolute requirement; that's certainly been true historically in the 6-basho era.

According the the glossary, the term is Ozewake.

My only point is that no run of 33 wins over 3 basho, all at Sekiwake, all kachi-koshi, has ever failed to earn promotion, with the exception of Miyabiyama's, who (1) was a former Ozeki and (2) only got 9 wins in the final basho. Quite a few of the runs started with 8 or 9 wins, and one had 8 in the middle basho. Do I want Mitakeumi to pull it off? Yes. Do I have faith? Not so much.

Kotonishiki is the record-holder with 34 "junior" san'yaku appearances, Kaio was second with 32. Among recent rikishi who didn't make Ozeki, Tochiozan had 25. Full list here.

Yes.

Not that I see it happening, but should he win out, 11-9-13 is a feasible Ozeki run. I have Churanoumi out of contention as well.

I guess we know that a 9-6 M1w can be merely moved over to M1e (in fact, that's exactly what happened the last 3 times the situation occurred). And no M1w with double-digit wins has failed to be promoted to san'yaku, so presumably they'd just create an extra komusubi slot if necessary.

Is his san'yaku promotion certain at 8-5-2? I know it's unlikely, but what if Daieisho wins out, leaving only one open slot, and Takanosho picks up 2 or 3 more wins?

And now Chiyotairyu is out. That makes him make-koshi. Tokushoryu will get the freebie to improve to 6-7.

When 4-3 Daiseido went from Ms1w to Ms1e with two promotion slots available, those promoted ahead of him were a 5-2 Ms1e and a 7-0 Ms5e. The other two similar instances in the last decade involved promotion of a 4-3 Ms1e and a 6-1 Ms3e on one occasion, and a 5-2 Ms1e and a 6-1 Ms2w on the other. Here's the full list of such non-promotions.

Apparently Endo is out. Takakeisho will get a much-needed freebie.

According to Herouth, it's only happened once, in 1940.

And he can't get promoted without getting demoted first!

Kitaharima is currently tied for 3rd for the number of times a rikishi has dropped from Juryo to Makushita, with 7. Can he make it 8, which would move him into a tie for second, one behind the recently retired leader, Kizenryu? Kizenryu, however, was one-and-done in Juryo all 9 times, and leads second-place Kitaharima by 4 on that list.

This should be "Jonidan playoff", no?

While all the tsuna run talk here has focused on Asanoyama, it seems like Takakeisho is more likely to start one at this point, as he is actually tied for the lead in the yusho race.

If he goes 2-13, he'll in all likelihood be contending for the Juryo yusho in November

Big day in Makushita tomorrow!

For what it's worth, the last Yokozuna promotion with fewer than 25 wins over the previous two basho was Tamanoumi in 1970 (10-5, 13-2 P), when the criteria were clearly different.

I guess all I'm saying is that if someone's Makuuchi record is bad enough, they'll find a way to demote them, even if they have to, say, promote a J8 with a 10-5: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201403#J

Sure, survival with 4 wins is very possible, but with 2 or 3 it would be unprecedented: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=m11&form1_wins=2-4&form1_year=1958-2020&form2_highlight=on&form2_m=on&sort_basho=1&sort_by=record