Reonito

Into the actual promotion zone, surely?

Ichinojo is guaranteed to be at least tied for the lead after Day 13, and all the 7-5 rikishi are mathematically eliminated.

At ~85 and counting, this basho has more than tripled the previous record for fusen losses. We're "only" at 7 in Makuuchi but that'll be 9 tomorrow, second to the all-time record of 10 from January 1950.

Tamawashi and Nishikigi out; our Day 15 options are dwindling by the day.

I see a few possibilities, but it would be overthinking it not to go with: 14. Daieisho I can roll the dice on Day 15.

And if it comes down to records in Makuuchi that are demotable but not completely impossible to keep vs. records in juryo that are not really promotable, the incumbents usually get to stay these days. E.g. if it comes down to 6-9 Yutakayama vs. 9-6 Bushozan.

Takakiesho shut it down pretty hard in March after getting his 8 with four days left.

It's a lost cause Some just like their narratives too much, even if they're spun out of pure chance.

13. Ura

I know it's weird to speculate in this uncertain environment, but this is my favorite thing to do late in a tournament, and it would be even weirder not to.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only bout that hasn't taken place among the quartet is the presumed day 15 first kore yori matchup between Daieisho and Hoshoryu.

This is probably what I'd do. In any case, I hope they say something and not just hold a banzuke meeting with results not announced for weeks as usual. Although I guess we'd probably be able to glean a bit of info from juryo promotions.

Given the latest news, and assuming there will be a Day 12, 12. Midorifuji

A lot of ways they could do this, so with zero confidence I will choose 12. Kotoshoho Could be another Kyokai strike.

Even taking into account the wacky leaderboard, I see no reason not to go with 11. Wakamotoharu

Guys I'm beginning to seriously doubt we'll get to finish the game

10. Aoiyama

I think the knot already looks like it's starting to get untied at 5:50, but I don't know how loose it needs to be before a mawashi matta is typically called. At 6:23/6:24 the strand comes out of the knot, and that's when Inosuke starts to act...maybe acting earlier would have avoided the whole thing.

This video does make it clear, though, that the rear belt knot was clearly coming loose earlier, when the wrestlers were at an impasse, and had it been tightened there, we would have avoided the farce that followed.

Slight modification to get to no one with 7 or 8. Six instances in history, two of them are the two most recent basho. (But I see that you guys are well ahead of me.)

I guess the problem with this is that it does not acknowledge the possibility that the gyoji may screw up, and makes no provision for what to do in that case.

Oh, I doubt very much it'll ever come to that.

True. In this year's Tour de France, individual riders have withdrawn after positives, but not their entire teams, and in at least one case a rider was even allowed to continue despite a positive with a very low Ct. In 2020 and 2021, things were much stricter. Japan has been much more conservative than most other places, and given their death rates, it's hard to blame them, but they've been slowly relaxing (see spectator numbers) and this policy will presumably follow suit.

Entire cycling teams have had to withdraw from World Tour stage races any number of times...

Here.