Reonito

Looks like only three promotions: Chiyosakae, Fujiseiun, and Tokihayate:

Is he only the 4th Ms10TD ever? That's what I get from the db. The previous 3 being Endo, Mitakeumi, and someone named Ichihara/Kiyoseumi back in 2007, who didn't have much of a career, presumably due to injury. (There's also Yutakayama in the 1960s who started at Ms10eOB, maybe that's the same thing?)

The general principle is to try to pair up guys who have something to fight for. With a max of 27 possible opponents in juryo, matchmaking gets hard toward the end. Ichinojo had already fought anyone who was doing well, and someone with a mild KK or MK from the middle ranks wouldn't have had anything even potentially at stake.

I feel like the whole point of scheduling him against Ichinojo with the yusho on the line was that he had something to fight for, namely avoiding demotion.

It's more that 4-11 at J9 seemed like a slam dunk demotion case...

Of the fairly recent very successful Ms TD rikishi, Endo went 5-2 twice in Ms before his 14-1 juryo yusho, Ichinojo went 6-1 twice, as did Mitakeumi. There's a reason Ochiai going 7-0 was such a big deal.

Fair enough, though I'd be more sympathetic to J8e / J10e staying with 4 / 5 wins, respectively, than these guys.

They could've gone with Chiyonoumi, who was on the right side of the invisible line. I honestly didn't think the incumbents were on the bubble given that their next rank computed to J16. It's not like promoting from Ms5 is unheard of, and it doesn't require disastrous records in juryo.

I gotta say @Gurowake called it.

JSA: "we'd rather see this guy in the salaried ranks for another basho"

This was Shiden's 3rd 6-1 score while ranked just outside the promotion zone. Natsu will be his 9th time in the promotion zone. He went 3-4 in 7 of 8 previous chances. And of course we all know what happened the one time he went 5-2.

Kawazoe and Shiden got screwed. Tsushimanada is the first 4-11 J9 who gets to stay since 1963, when Juryo had 18 ranks. Shimanoumi is only the 3rd of 43 5-10 J11's to stay up in the same timeframe; Chiyosakae just got sent down in January with the same rank and record.

This looks ... disappointing

Where is this from? I feel like I have to see it!

We already know he isn't being considered now.

But then you look at the alternatives

Every single rikishi since 2011 got one (15 instances including Kinbozan).

His other 3 losses: he got surprised an pulled down by Tamashoho, who managed that against no less than Asanoyama two basho again, lost to Atamifuji while fighting with one arm, and lost to 11-4 Gonoyama. I expect quite a battle between those two in May.

Oh, I remember that one; I think it left us all

So of the 4 14-1 Y, 2 are in the last two basho

Just like in actual sumo

We certainly have examples of 4-11 J9 being exchanged with promotion candidates no better than Kawazoe, and no one with those numbers has ever stayed up. It's similar for 5-10 from J11, so I don't think both staying is on the table.

Yup. If we don't get a bonus promotion, I'm looking forward to him vs. Gonoyama and Shonannoumi.

Guys over on sumo talk:

But what an effort it was!