Seiyashi

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Everything posted by Seiyashi

  1. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Good point. If Abi does go up against both Mitakeumi and Terunofuji and beat them, the title is his unless he has a last day collapse (to who? I don't think anyone is left that wouldn't be effectively securing the yusho for Abi with a senshuraku win. If Abi loses on senshuraku the winner of Terunofuji v Mitakeumi still at least can bring him to a playoff with a final day win as well.) Unfortunately I'm tired enough that I can't remember what I was thinking when I wrote them. I might have typoed and meant 12-3 J instead, since as you rightly pointed out the yusho score is no better than 13-2 and 12-3 will almost certainly be JY if no playoff results. So Mitakeumi can still lose one more and still have a yusho honour, but a 12-3 J with all losses in the home stretch simply doesn't look good for his ozeki run. I sincerely apologise for these errors and promise not to disgrace my forum rank of yokozuna in future
  2. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Problem is: the day 14 schedule will be announced long before Schroedinger looks in the box. Hm. I must have misremembered when they delay bouts for - only day 15 then, right? In which case, at least based on a quick query, I'm coming round to the idea of Abi v Terunofuji.
  3. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Hehe. Someone's been paying attention. Heh. That said, I did a little digging and found some preliminary data that might contradict the rule. If I understand you correctly, the rule basically states that no maegashira from one behind a yokozuna leading the arasoi should be allowed to challenge that yokozuna directly, right? If so, I'll open another topic in Ozumo Discussions to discuss the ambit of the rule there.
  4. Seiyashi

    Mitakeumi Ozeki Prospects

    If Abi v Terunofuji is on day 14 (not out of the question regardless of the result of Mitakeumi v Abi tomorrow), then Abi could himself be making a case for ozeki pretty soon. It wouldn't be difficult to allow Terunofuji a few basho kyujo to avoid having to look for one more ozeki, and between Takakeisho and Shodai it's not actually that likely IMO that both will go MK while kadoban in March (Shodai is still technically not kadoban although it's quite a small hope that he won't be by the end of the basho). If Mitakeumi collapses in the home stretch and loses to both Abi and Terunofuji, there is no way they're going to promote him, potential shortage of ozeki be damned, and that's a bridge the NSK will cross when they get to it. Things could have been different if both ozeki were kadoban this basho and went kyujo/MK.
  5. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    The problem with giving Abi to Terunofuji whether or not he beats Mitakeumi is this: as Eikokurai will be wont to say, a maegashira upstart challenging for the yusho will never be allowed to secure it outright by having the opportunity to beat the yokozuna who is also challenging for the yusho. It makes day 14 Abi v Terunofuji too risky a bout in the event Abi actually beats Terunofuji especially if Abi has also beaten Mitakeumi, because no one can then directly catch him other than possibly a 11-2 Kotonowaka, and no one else makes sense as a gatekeep for Abi. They have to give him someone, but it can't be a freebie or it just hands him the yusho on a silver platter, as the winner of Terunofuji v Mitakeumi can still hope to force a playoff if Abi loses on senshuraku. , and leaves day 15 as either possibly a decider between two maegashira or complete dead air, both of which are real bummers to end a basho on. And if Abi has lost to Mitakeumi, he is one behind Terunofuji and shouldn't be given the power to force a playoff as that is not something he would have had in the ordinary course of things by virtue of his rank. (That said I don't know if the Eikokurai rule is still a thing as some queries suggest that the torikumi committee isn't shy from straying from it.) If such a match must take place, it would only take place on day 15 if it is still necessary by then. Day 14 Abi v Kotonowaka is much more likely if Abi beats Mitakeumi, to tie up loose ends, and moot if Abi loses to Mitakeumi. This is of course assuming Terunofuji remains perfect throughout. He is likely to ream Takanosho tomorrow, but his day 14 matchup depends on Abi v Mitakeumi as well. If Mitakeumi beats Abi then most likely T v M is the musubi on senshuraku, whereas if Mitakeumi loses to Abi T v M is on for day 14 in the ordinary sequence of things. So M v A is the Schrodinger bout tomorrow. Too many possibilities are up in the air before then. Once that bout is decided, the schedules for day 14 will almost certainly crystallise.
  6. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Abi will almost certainly have to fight Terunofuji in that event. It might just rescue his ozeki bid if Abi beats Terunofuji too, since the optics don't look that bad any more, although the much more probable scenario is to leave them all on 11-3 at the end of day 14. But if Mitakeumi beats Abi then Abi won't meet Teru, most probably.
  7. Seiyashi

    Mitakeumi Ozeki Prospects

    His bout to Abi has just become vital. Lose that, and ozeki bye bye for sure. Even if he wins that, his ozeki hopes just took a big knock with his loss today.
  8. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Now, not only is Abi back as a co-leader, Kotonowaka is a yusho threat since Abi has yet to fight both Teru and Mitakeumi, and it's entirely possible that he beats one and loses to the other to bring them all to 11-3, while Kotonowaka builds 2 more wins. The implications of that are a bit too varied before tomorrow's bouts pan out, and we might see late torikumi, but I think Shodai may be an unexpected beneficiary with some of his sanyaku bouts switched out to accomodate needing to deal with the two hiramaku upstarts.
  9. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Terunofuji just made it really easy to make that a 13-2 J.
  10. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Shodai somehow getting a decent win over Hokutofuji, who's a tricky customer. Yet his body language is still depressed. I wouldn't put it past him to somehow pull an 8-7 out of the bag and really ginger up the end of this basho, but he has got to give it his all.
  11. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    It'll be a hard buy after today's loss to Abi. He still has Terunofuji and Mitakeumi to go and he's almost certain to lose to them, so that instantly puts him makekoshi. His last opponent is one of the Hakkaku-beya pair or Chiyoshoma, which looks slightly ok but could be risky if he gets Hokutofuji.
  12. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Yep. Shades of week 2 Mitakeumi showing up even as he is still in a good position on the arasoi otherwise. It might be a cheap loss but it still looks bad to be smoked like that - almost Shodaiesque, and that's the last person you want comparisons to when pursuing an ozeki run now. Pity, too. If I understood them correctly, the NHK announcer and Kitanofuji were pointing out this is the first time Mitakeumi has strung together back to back double digit wins, and if he is promoted, he will be only the second Nagano ozeki, the first being the legendary Raiden Tameemon.
  13. Seiyashi

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - January 2022 edition

    Day 14: Takanosho. Sigh, I should have kept my Shodai and Daieisho picks one day later than I made them. Whoops.
  14. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    If push comes to shove the two MK rule will get told to sod off. The kadoban system with immediate repromotion dates only to 1969 and before that, IIRC, the demotion criteria for ozeki was 3 MK without immediate repromotion. Both rules might seem almost absolute today but one is far less sacrosanct, having already been twiddled with. That said, while I think Mitakeumi deserves promotion, part of me does want to see what happen if the banzuke runs out of Y/Os.
  15. Seiyashi

    Mitakeumi Ozeki Prospects

    Only went kyujo twice in his seven-year career, returned both times within the same basho, stuck it out till the end, and even fought his way to a KK the second time he did that. That controversially earned him a Fighting Spirit prize. If nothing he knows his limits - cf Takakeisho's disastrous attempt to return in his debut ozeki basho which led to a disgraceful second withdrawal. He has taken the odd knock now and then, sporting nice shiners and/or bandages from collisions at the tachiai, but doesn't have any publicly disclosed long-term injuries. If he had been promoted to ozeki anytime before now he'd still be one - that's how reliable he has been so far.
  16. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Even if both Takakeisho and Shodai get demoted in Haru, I wouldn't bet against Takakeisho scoring an immediate return in Natsu especially if he takes Haru off entirely. It doesn't solve Natsu's banzuke being short on ozeki, and it's probably still better for the banzuke in the long run to promote Mitakeumi now, but it's not as if both ozeki are about to retire tomorrow. Also, in before ozekiwake becomes a real thing, lile the sekiwake version of yokozuna-ozeki. That said, if they have that out, Mitakeumi's just going to be the perpetual ozekiwake if they don't promote him this time.
  17. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 - Day 11: Wardrobe malfunction?

    Tatemitsu (written with the kanji for tachi as in tachiai and fundoshi).
  18. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 - Day 11: Wardrobe malfunction?

    No, shimpan intervening in a match is pretty universally mistaken for the bout being over. In fact, the shimpan have a rule to watch the replay first and ask questions later to avoid having to redo a bout due to a mistaken call. As much as it might have been unpleasant or titillating, depending on which side you swing, rikishi exposure was never really historically a big problem until relatively recently in sumo's history. The biggest problem with a mawashi falling off is inconveniencing your aite if he's a yotsu type: what's he gonna grab then? But if the mawashi is on and stays loose, there's no foul.
  19. Seiyashi

    Mitakeumi Ozeki Prospects

    Controversially, the optics of Mitakeumi's promotion chances might depend on Abi losing as well, whether to him or someone else. A junyusho arising from a loss to the eventual yokozuna yusho is no shame, but being joint junyusho is nothing to brag about. Shodai's matches are insignificant in the narrative now, so I wouldn't be surprised if Mitakeumi was dispatched to gatekeep Abi leading up to senshuraku. If he beats Abi then, I'd say his promotion is going to be pretty assured, even if he loses to Terunofuji and maybe drops one more.
  20. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 - Day 11: Wardrobe malfunction?

    Whole thing has to come off, I think. And usually the gyoji intervene before it gets to that stage.
  21. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    I wonder when was the last basho which saw a complete turnover in lower sanyaku (i.e. none of the 4 incumbents remaining in lower sanyaku). It almost certainly has to be before Mitakeumi's time, since he's been a lower sanyaku fixture for so long.
  22. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 Best Match Nominations Thread

    Terutsuyoshi v Yutakayama deserves an honourable mention for that out of nowhere makiotoshi. The entire bout isn't quite as good as Ishiura's have been, but the finish needs multiple rewatches to really fully appreciate. I wouldn't nominate it for the technique match myself, but I would definitely second it if anyone does. More facetiously, should Mitakeumi v Shodai get a nomination for Fighting Spirit? Shodai almost put more back into the bout than he has for the entire basho, and Mitakeumi seems to have unjinxed himself in coming back strong from that loss to Hokutofuji.
  23. Seiyashi

    Rikishi Status - 2022 Hatsu Basho

    Ham storing. Codeword for concealing chips like a chipmunk.
  24. Seiyashi

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Not the first time he's commentated, right? How's the quality of his commentary relative to his fellow oyakata?
  25. Seiyashi

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - January 2022 edition

    Given the late release, at least that only necessitated the rewriting of one kaobure sheet as well, rather than juggle a few matchups around.