themistyseas

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About themistyseas

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    宮城野・二所ノ関・錣山
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    勢・白鵬・宇良・炎鵬・阿炎・石浦・霧場山

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  1. themistyseas

    Yutakayama Intai

    That and he's also university educated which likely changes the calculus for him in terms of his personal decision making. While the number of college educated rikishi is obviously a small minority, one would think that there are more options and higher earning options available to them if they aren't looking or aren't able to join the Kyokai after they retire, especially if they feel the time is right at a younger age. While he's one guy with his own hopes and dreams, it will be intriguing to learn what he decides to do next. It would be an interesting data point (at least on a personal level) in terms of understanding how this generation of rikishi to have come out of university might assess their future "second life".
  2. themistyseas

    Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

    I'm a fan of her updates of course, but it's a community where people are constantly looking to blame someone or something and someone has to be always right and someone is always wrong. Despite the fact that sumo always has a winner and a loser, there is often grey area in the narrative. Case in point: the feelings that Abi may or may not have had on the dohyo in the aftermath of the Takayasu win. There are even folks on this thread people replying (including to your comment here) and saying that's not payback because fans were cheated. It can be both. It can also be neither. That is the beauty of the situation and of narrative. I tend to agree with you. If anyone needed a word of encouragement in their ear the day after, Takayasu's arguably got the best senpai in the business. It's remarkable that Kisenosato had almost double the runners-up tallies before his first yusho and some collapses from equally as incredible positions. Takayasu's obviously had a more up and down career and has suffered in terms of form and fitness since his buddy's collapse and retirement but - while his oyakata could be a bit of a wild card - he seems to have a good support group around him.
  3. themistyseas

    Ichinojo Concerns

    Not sure if this has been addressed elsewhere and apologies to all if it's (quasi) irrelevant, but this comment made me consider whether Senshuraku parties have returned yet for the heya. I think normally these do occur at the regional basho as a good chance for the regional supporters & groups to support (financially and otherwise) the various stables. Have to imagine if they are going ahead that the Minato beya senshuraku party would be a weird one this time out, to say the least...
  4. themistyseas

    Banzuke Surfing Kyushu 2022 (18th Wave)

    Jonidan is just absolutely horrendous, yikes. Bit risky to drop this far back, but I'll take a flyer on someone who seems to be back in Jd60 Asashiyu
  5. themistyseas

    Banzuke Surfing Kyushu 2022 (17th Wave)

    First time I've ever been ranked this high, so it's time to get jokey in an effort to push on some more Sd22 Toseiryu and Sd43 Takahashi
  6. themistyseas

    Preparations of the masses- Kyushu 2022

    Is it just me or does it seem like with the post-COVID return of degeiko, there seems to be much more inter-ichimon degeiko going on? I might be wrong, but it felt like before the pandemic, this was really limited to Ozeki and Yokozuna privilege to go out and train with whomever they like. I don't know if anyone has the answer but I wonder what has brought these particular combinations about... the stables aren't even remotely geographically close to each other (nor is Tokiwayama near Takekuma where Kintamayama reported Takakeisho as having visited). I can understand that Meisei and Hoshoryu want to challenge themselves against rikishi of a similar level, is that all it is? But one would think it'd be much easier for Onosho to head over and visit Sadogatake (unless he's moved far away from his heya)! Arashio beya does seem to be very progressive and welcoming of rikishi, fans and also the oyakata's interaction with the media (ie. NHK & also Sumo Prime Time), which is a really nice development.
  7. Slightly poor wording from me and I'll own that - let's try again: we have 105 names in circulation with a system that until recently, turned them over roughly every 30 years. Absolutely I agree the number of kabu was not at any point tied to the retirement age, but I do think the data points are useful, because the average age that a rikishi retires and the mandatory retirement age are important pieces of the conversation. Accidents or not - those data points inform about how many names on average will free up (some years maybe zero, some years maybe eight, but still there's always an average in and out). I don't know that I would say things were good before or are bad now, I think we're probably in the same place on that. We do however have to note that the maths have changed, which has a notable knock on effect. I think you just have to have a situation where there's continued employment through this system for the top names who can develop the future of the sport. It probably isn't an issue at all if retirement from active duty doesn't come with "get a name now or you're out forever." It's why I wonder whether the return of jun-toshiyori with a shorter grace period might help solve some issues. I take your point that that they might like to be more picky about who comes in, although the devil's advocate view is that it could also be a self preservation move designed for the interests of a few over the needs of the whole (we can't really know). It does feel a bit weird to me that they might be picky at this exact moment about who's coming in if you look strictly at their contributions on the dohyo, because of the 8 "retirement age" rikishi in the top division (from Chiyotairyu and older), all of them except Sadanoumi and possibly Chiyotairyu have careers that not only allow them to enter the kyokai but open their own heya - which a surprisingly large amount of current kyokai members do not possess. With the new emphasis on rikishi health and oyakata health drills before basho, it also seems like you might want more 40 year olds and fewer 67 year olds along the hanamichi (do sanyo do blue coat duty at basho? i've never seen it in person). But I accept that's not going to be anything they are thinking about. By notable I mostly meant people who qualify to take on an elder role, or even simply an ex-sekitori. Every basho we get a good number of retirements, but few if any are notable in the sense of any sumo achievements. If the Kyokai says "reached san'yaku once" is notable enough to qualify for a career extension as an elder, then that's good enough for me to say that Kotoyūki or Chiyootori had notable careers. Asahisho I'd agree is more of an edge case.
  8. The problem we have mathematically is that the current set of 105 names was based on the names turning over roughly every 30 years based on whatever the average retirement age is for a rikishi (probably around 3.5 names a year becoming free, which frankly - based on gut feel only - seems pretty reasonable given that we get about that many notable names retiring each year). If it's every 35 years then you need to account for the extra names per year that need to change hands. There are probably a handful of sensible solutions that don't feel especially radical and wouldn't disturb the ecosystem or the culture of sumo too much: 1) cap the number of sanyo - don't they also do this with sewanin and wakaimonogashira? 2) lower the sanyo retirement age to 68 - three years should be enough to offer guidance and support to new shisho in an official capacity. you could soften this slightly by saying those who serve on the board of directors can remain until 70 (although it's less likely they're the ones that need to the additional income from remaining employed). 3) reinstate jun-toshiyori where a myoseki is unavailable and retiring rikishi meets a very high performance threshold (maybe it's sanyaku or 45+ as sekitori) to give them time to remain in the kyokai while they acquire a name 4) revive additional edo/meiji-era elder names for use as kabu - there seem to be a handful that would still maintain the history and traditions of sumo. you could issue 10 more on an as needed basis (but no more than 3-4 in a year) over the next 5 years and bring the total to 115 which wouldn't seem problematic in an era where everyone is working to 70. this would also keep the average of annually expiring names a little more consistent, and any additional stables that are able to be launched could help replenish the shrinking number of rikishi in the sport (given that a number of the current stables either rarely recruit or simply don't recruit). More radically you could also cap the number of oyakata in a heya which would set the cat amongst the pigeons a bit in terms of stock market activity - there is no sensible reason why Isenoumi beta, with one aging sekitori and ten rikishi of whom none are likely to even reach Juryo (apart from maybe Arauma), requires seven coaches (making Takashima's move even more baffling).
  9. themistyseas

    COVID-delayed oyakata danpatsu-shiki

    Bit of a shame they've not been able to PR this with a little more lead time. I think it's the kind of thing he definitely would be able to sell to the foreign sumo fan that's not going to be able to get tickets or afford to go to, say, Hakuho's event. With Japan seemingly opening up at long last, I bet he could probably sell a couple dozen extra tickets by roping in a certain popular secondary market ticketing site that caters to foreigners. I know this smacks of the usual "foreign sumo fans overstating their importance" but while intai-zumo is a popular ticket category for tourists, I think definitely 20-30 hardcore fans (SF people, bloggers, podcast folks, youtube folks, other fans) with "participate in danpatsushiki" on the bucket list would do it at this price point. If he's only expecting to gross ¥16.5M ($115K USD at current exchange rate) on the event anyway, minus costs of "a soft drink and a light meal" and whatever is needed to run it, seems like an additional ¥600K-800K might be welcome.
  10. Just had a bit of a shock when browsing the DB: the sanyo-for-all policy could be felt a bit more intensely and further down the road. We've had several sanyo retirements this year, but right now the oldest member of the Kyokai (Minezaki/ex-Misugiiso) is 66, so assuming no early exits, there will be almost four full years before we see any openings pop up from the current crop of sanyo The problem with that is that in that same time period, NINE oyakata will be apparently eligible to become sanyo: Kagamiyama and Irumagawa in 2023, followed by Michinoku and Hanakago in 2024, Isegahama, Otake, Jinmaku, and Shibatayama in 2025 and Tokiwayama in 2026. Those who are stablemasters from that group already have their likely successor in the heya as an oyakata with the exception of Otake, Shibatayama and Tokiwayama, and none of those stables has an active rikishi who looks likely to hang up their mawashi to succeed them at that point. So there doesn't look like much chance of a succession like we saw recently at Arashio from any of those stables, which probably increases the likelihood of the shisho becoming sanyo internally (like Miyagino) or after a merger elsewhere (like Minezaki). Even under traditional circumstances, it's not sustainable to only have 2 names open up a year. I know it's unlikely, but I'm not sure what kind of carnage we're going to be looking at when you have the possibility of zero names becoming available for four more years? I also wonder if the Kyokai can financially sustain or politically enact growth to 110 members, for example.
  11. themistyseas

    Banzuke Surfing Aki 2022 (17th Wave)

    Sd74e Kazekeno
  12. themistyseas

    Banzuke Surfing Aki 2022 (18th Wave)

    Jd62w Suyama
  13. themistyseas

    Preparations of the masses- Aki 2022

    I would absolutely pay money to an NSK subscription service (or Hiro Morita's new thing) to watch some version of this between basho Tamashoho's obviously too good to be involved in this, which is in some ways a shame as otherwise Tamawashi vs the rest of the heya would be a great YouTube series in its own right Loser has to bake the cakes for the winner
  14. themistyseas

    Kaisei Intai

    Aren't we all weird people that this is part of what makes sumo great, but it in some ways really is - the lineage of the names and the politics that have been involved for generations in being able to ascend to a prestigious name, or sometimes in fact any name! One missing piece of the puzzle - and one that lends a little bit more credibility to your hypothesis in fact - is that ex-Kaiki retired from active sanyo duty under the Tomozuna name before Kaisei's last basho. Presumably, if he was next in line, he'd have been next in line even if he hadn't dropped to Juryo (in a world where he could have posted the kind of kachikoshi scores down in Juryo that Okinoumi has been doing in makuuchi the last few years, getting one solid result every so often to extend his career by a further 6 months here or there, he may even have been in position to have acquired it and loaned it out to someone else). So it is a little odd on the face of it - but at the same time I do just have the feeling it's paperwork holding it up. Officially of course for the last 10 years or so the kyokai has brokered kabu trades, but I imagine that for guys who owned names for decades before that policy came into being, (like Kaiki who picked up his share over 24 years before the changes were made a decade ago) their exit conversation around the ROI for the transfer of their name is a little more complicated than it will be for the next generation, whose affairs will have been fully managed in house. I could be wrong, but these transfers due seem to be getting murky in other ways now that they're managed in-house (see: Toyonoshima saying he was "making payments" on a name he was later unable to acquire, well after the policy change was enacted).
  15. themistyseas

    Kaisei Intai

    The official listing on the kyokai's website has him listed above only the sanyo and below all of the other presumed borrowers, so I would imagine it's technically still on loan from Kaiki. Of course the wheels may be in motion for him to take the share fully, but I imagine that with the announcement coming when it did (immediately upon dropping from Juryo), there may yet be paperwork to sort out and presumably a deal to be made behind the scenes. Edited to add: worth pointing out as well that the Wikipedia page (at least in English) is a little lax on the updates as well: it's also missing another couple of borrowers (Izutsu and Sanoyama) and three of the sanyo haven't been relocated from their previous positions in the kyokai. So as ever, worth taking the crowd-sourced content with a few grains of dohyo salt (not unlike a message board? Haha!)