Ginkitsune

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Everything posted by Ginkitsune

  1. Ginkitsune

    September (Aki) Basho- offical thread (yay..)

    Terutsuyoshi was born in Hyougo prefecture (where Kobe is located) on the same day as the Great Hanshin earthquake in 1995. This prefecture was not affected by the 2011 tsunami although he might do his salt throwing routine to honor that tragedy. I have no idea why he does his routine.
  2. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    Yeah now that Japan has an automated testing system (which you mentioned previously) they can do a lot more tests per day. You act like they could have developed this in a day or a week. It takes time to design, test, and make these things. You have to be a pretty big conspiracy fan to think limited testing was purposely done because of the Olympics or stupidity (which is pretty offensive). I'm not going to convince you I'm sure but others from around the world may read this baseless speculation and believe it. I hope after reading a little more they don't fall for some conspiracy theory that Japan didn't try to protect its citizens from a global pandemic.
  3. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    Patently false. Name one country with a population over 30m that is not suffering from lack of testing. Germany is only now catching up with number of tests performed and is currently at the limit of it's laboratory capacity according to a leading virologist. You can import tests but you can't easily import technicians to run manual tests which is why trying to introduce the automated tests has been their focus. Do you really think you can create a system that tests adequately a population of over 120m happens in weeks? You seem to be focusing on what Japan did or is getting wrong while ignoring that every other country is struggling. How is the testing going in the US? They had just as much time as Japan and they are an economic power.
  4. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    It is remarkable how some have become so knowledgeable about public health, national health systems, and national laboratory systems in a few short weeks. I would like to suggest that anyone who states that the relatively low rate of testing in Japan is a "strategy" has no understanding of Japanese health systems and capabilities or even health systems in general. It would be the same as stating that the lack of testing in California is a "strategy". The lack of testing in Japan has been a lack of capacity, period. Many have been working extensively on this since January but to this point the ability to conduct a large number of automated tests is not possible. It's great to point to South Korea and say why didn't Japan (or any other county for that matter) have a system that could conduct a large volume of tests but the simple fact is that South Korea instituted a system post-SARS that allowed them to do this. Should other countries have done the same? Yes, but they didn't. Again, the limited testing is not a national "strategy" and suggest that it is an intentional strategy is false. Apraxin is precisely on target that the true impact of Covid-19 will not be known for years, just like the H1N1 virus as the data now is incomplete and will likely never be known exactly. Oh, and before anyone suggests that Japan declined one million free tests from Softbank's CEO (which was later rescinded) the reason is they wouldn't have been able to process them. A lack of laboratory capacity. Japan is in the same shape as a lot of other countries at the moment, uncertainty over how this will progress and trying to figure out the best way to mitigate the impact while preserving human life given the constraints of their medical system, supply chain, and how the epidemic is presenting in their country. I am reluctant to comment further as some will want to believe whatever they want to no matter what. I would simply hope that all will try to comply as best as possible with whatever their local health authorities suggest/demand and keep themselves, their families, and fellow citizens safe.
  5. Ginkitsune

    Basho cancellation?

    Well anything can be disputed. Please forgive me however if I don't recognize you as an expert because you read Yahoo Japan. I think I'm done here.
  6. Ginkitsune

    Basho cancellation?

    OK, thanks for the clarification. I'm a retired epidemiologist (although not in population health) but I do understand the principle's behind each countries response. Since I live in Japan and have a great interest in this, my wife translates anything I cannot read. So first, the reason why there are criteria here (and in every other country) on who gets tested is because of the finite number of tests and personnel available. That doesn't mean a person doesn't get any test at all as they will receive a test for influenza since the symptoms are so similar. If they are negative for influenza and have persistent symptoms they are highly likely to be tested for coronavirus. Has this worked perfectly everywhere? No but these are exceptions and not the rule. I'm not sure that speculation that these will somehow increase is warranted without some indication that this is a widespread issue. Rocks mentions wide spread testing of asymptomatic patients in order to quarantine and stop the transmission. This is highly effective when the disease is still isolated to a geographic area and can be contained. What has happened in most countries is the virus has not been contained so now testing is most effective to first positively identify symptomatic patients, quarantine and treat. Once the initial backlog of symptomatic patients is managed then further testing of asymptomatic patients can take place to isolate and iradicate. The reason I am sensitive about what is written about coronavirus on this board is because many people rely on it for information, mostly about sumo but also other side issues. This is a side issue that the entire world is grappling with right now and anecdotes and hyperbole can sometimes unintentionally misinform. I would hope we can all keep our speculation to the sumo and only try to share reliable information on coronavirus.
  7. Ginkitsune

    Basho cancellation?

    Chiyomaru tested negative for the coronavirus. Cause of fever was reported as bacterial skin infection. Do you have any reliable information on patients with symptoms for days not being tested and subsequently testing positive? I would think that would be big news here but I haven't heard of this at all. Is the Japanese press covering something up?
  8. Ginkitsune

    Coronavirus in China

    China definitely withheld access and information initially however quickly changed course. On January 10th they shared the DNA sequence with the world and have recently sent equipment and doctors to Italy to combat coronavirus. I don't remember the US sending help to Japan, Korea, Iran, or Italy during the initial outbreak. In fact the US is maintaining sanctions on Iran which is exacerbating the human suffering. Yes China is using misinformation pointing towards US responsibility for the virus as is the US in blaming the virus on China. In other words, both countries are politicizing this to no good end in my opinion. I don't know or care who started this misinformation but at least admit that the United States, especially Trump and the Republican party, has politicized this for weeks going back to the end of January. At a time when the world needs to pull together and cooperate, what China and the US are currently doing is helping no one. Perhaps we can set a better example than that of our governments.
  9. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    Please stop saying this. Those of us who live in Japan know this is utterly untrue as the media here has been covering this extensively since mid January. There is nothing "calm" about the reporting but then again it is not reporting wild speculation either. In certain cases some western media I follow have been reporting inaccurately and there have certainly been stories spreading disinformation such as this was a man made virus which escaped a Chinese military facility. You need look no further than how this situation is being politicized in the US to see how dangerous this can be as people begin to trust nothing or only reports that fit their own narratives. So the claim that some media are blowing it out of proportion, mainly through wild speculation, or reporting things that are untrue is justified. You also cannot look at China, Korea, Italy, and Iran and then extrapolate how it will progress in other countries. Each country has their own particular set of circumstances that led to those outbreaks. Could it happen in other countries? Yes, however even then that doesn't mean an increased rate of infection will progress the same. Again for those truly interested in how the virus is progressing I suggest that you only rely on reliable medical sources such as the WHO, the CDC(although that may be more difficult in the future as all statements will now have to be vetted by the Vice President's office) and other governmental public health authorities.
  10. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    Thanks for the clarification. So it would appear that if anything, the primary impact would have been to undercount the number of infected in China, perhaps significantly. Given that the raw mortality rate within China is currently 3.48% while outside of China it is 1.5% this would make sense however it will likely be many months until it can be adequately investigated.
  11. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    Disclaimer: This post is not on whether the basho will be held or not. I have no idea however, I would like to address what i see as misinformation even if it is unintentional. Again this is my opinion but this is a serious epidemic and misleading information can do a lot more harm than good. Nucleic acid amplification is used in testing for COVID-19 to separate small quantities of RNA whose genome is then sequenced so it is not a test in and of itself. I cannot state what the sensitivity of the test is however I am certain that it is not 30% as that would indicate that it is only identifying 30% of true cases. In tests such as these the sensitivity (identification as positive of a true positive sample) is usually in the high 90% range and specificity (true negative samples are identified as negative) is also in the 90's. If you have information contrary to this please post the source so others can access it. Also samples that do not meet the criteria for positive or negative based on genome sequencing are classified indeterminate and sent to a reference lab for analysis.Again, you can find the laboratory protocol for test for COVID-19 at the WHO website. The rest of this post simply states that the epidemic is severe which I think we can all agree on. The latest WHO Situation Report #37 was published February 25th and indicated 7 new cases in Japan. All infections for those on the Diamond Princess are classified as "International Conveyance" by the WHO. There were no additional infections reported for those patients in the new report. In the report you will also notice that all cases of International Conveyance (eg those aboard the Diamond Princess) are listed as "Site of transmission under investigation". So you are correct that their nationality is not "Diamond Princess" however they are currently NOT counted under any nationality as it is unclear where they acquired the infection. The countries listed are not nationalities but people identified as infected in that country. So, there were over 3,000 people onboard the Diamond Princess of whom 691 of all nationalities were identified as infected. This is correct however the woman was not going all over the city and remained at home. There seems to be some confusion on how Japan is managing potentially infected people as someone else mentioned that it is odd that only hospitalized patients have been counted as infected. In fact patients who have recovered and those who may have come into contact with an infected patient are asked to confine themselves to home and are monitored. They are contacted every day and asked about their condition as well as their temperature. This woman was monitored and after displaying symptoms was asked to return to the hospital where she received another test which confirmed she was infected. In this case she did not receive a genetic test when she was originally discharged to see if the virus remained in her system so it is unknown if she reacquired the infection or if it never left. It seems likely that in the future all "recovered" patients with be required to have a PCR test before being discharged. This post is already too long but I would urge everyone to be careful of what you read and if you want to speculate make sure that others know it is only your opinion. In a situation such as this people need accurate information that can help them and those around them. Kaminariyuki has excellent advice in wearing a mask and frequent hand washing. As many westerners do not wear masks, sneezing or coughing into your elbow provides the best protection for others.
  12. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    I can understand that people are concerned however I can't understand why they can't accept that (1) Yes it is a fast spreading virus with a risk of mortality and (2) that quarantines of cities outside of China are probably not good ideas and (3) the internet is full of misinformation that can cause panic. The WHO announced that new cases in China peaked between January 23 and February 2 and that new cases "have been steadily declining" although outbreaks in other countries are deeply concerning and there is still a risk of pandemic. So things seem to be improving however still too much is unknown to say it will not flare up in another location. Regarding the Japan Times article from last week Dr. Oshitani did not say the Olympics could not be held now as the headline says nor did he say it would not be safe, he said "Right now we do not have an effective strategy, and I think it may be difficult to have the Olympics (now). But by the end of July we may be in a different situation. The basho is NOT the same as the Olympics. The Olympics involves over 15,000 athletes from over 200 countries and an expected crowd of over 600,000 from all over the world. It is a much different situation. Japan is not suppressing the infected number in any way shape or form. It is not standard procedure to "proactively" test asymptomatic patients in part because there are currently only 16 labs in the world who are certified by WHO to test for 2019nCoV. You don't waste precious resources by regularly testing asymptomatic patients. (See Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) technical guidance: Laboratory testing for 2019-nCoV in humans on the WHO website). Also posting video from NTD (funded by the Falun Gong and highly critical of all Chinese policies) suggesting without any evidence that the true death toll in Wuhan is 20,000 only helps to fuel more speculation. The US State Department has already accused Russia of disinformation regarding the outbreak and there are surely others who do so for "clicks". To quote Dr. Omi from the Japan Times article “Nobody can predict whether we can contain the virus or put an end to this outbreak before the Olympics start. That’s anybody’s guess.” I would say the same holds for the Osaka basho. If it is cancelled I am sure it will be because events have gotten significantly worse and if it is held I am sure it will be safe. All of this minute by minute speculation though is neither informative, sometimes incorrect, and incites fear. I would recommend listening to the WHO and country health authorities for accurate information and let the rest of this "reporting" go as it is often misleading even if they mean well.
  13. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    Just want to state that this as it is incorrect. Even with early treatment some compromised patients will die or have severe comorbidity from the flu which is why there are high risk groups (infants, elderly, diabetics, etc) who should receive the annual flu vaccine. Also the Bloomberg article that has been posted regarding Japan's response to the virus reports the comments of primarily economists who have little expertise commenting on medical issues. The infectious disease physician in the article was commenting solely on conditions onboard the cruise ship. At this time there is still too much unknown to confidently state what is going to occur but based on all recent outbreaks it is highly likely that this will be contained in the near future. To state that the only way to control transmission is to restrict people's movements and gatherings is alarmist although there will likely continue to be restrictions on people who have been in infected areas of China until the outbreak is controlled there and some events may be affected by that like the Tokyo marathon.. As Kintamayama has pointed out there seems to be a little hysteria at this point.
  14. Ginkitsune

    General Corona Banter

    This is somewhat overstated in my opinion. Japanese are concerned about transmission of the virus but probably more concerned at this point on its effect on the travel industry and global supply chains, much like the rest of the world. The Japanese government's response with the cruise ship Diamond Princess was mishandled by leaving quarantined passengers without adequate infection protection while on board however, all other cases have been handled and so far contained using standard infection protocols as those used in the US or Europe. I don't know what is meant by "extraordinary measures" but I would find it highly unlikely that severe travel bans or large scale quarantines of cities as those seen in China would ever be employed. It is still relatively early in the outbreak as China restricted information about the outbreak to international experts until recently. As more is understood about the virus such as mode of transmission, can non-symptomatic patients transmit the virus, and most effective anti-viral treatments, the rate of infection should decrease. Of course since these are unknown at the moment anything is possible however the world's response to other outbreaks such as SARS and MERS suggest a more rapid control over transmission rates.
  15. Ginkitsune

    Makunouchi yushos in 2020

    1x Tokushouryu 1x Hakuho 1x Takakeishou 2x Asanoyama 1x Shoudai
  16. Ginkitsune

    Ozekis and Yokozunas for January 2021 - let them rise up!

    Hakuho Y Takakeishou O Asanoyama Hakuho will remain somewhat competitive / oft injured but decide to hang on to pursue some obscure record like most career wins by a yokozuna returning from kyujo.
  17. Ginkitsune

    Hakuho - 16th time of asking

    No zensho
  18. Ginkitsune

    GTB Natsu May 2019-invitation and final results

    Correct. I type as well as I make selections.