Sakura

14 Ryuden

That's the issue. We don't know for sure what will happen. Theortically both he and Tamawashi could finish 10-5 and in such an event Kotonowaka would be ranked ahead of Tamawashi.

In case it wasn't clear. @Athenayama is not involved in running the game, but is helping me out by posting when the deadline has passed.

Day 13 match-ups Sanyaku 1: Wakatakakage (vs Takakeisho) 4: Shodai (vs Mitakeumi) 2: Nishikigi (vs Hoshoryu) 1: Wakamotoharu (vs Daieisho) 1: Ura (vs Ichinojo) 1: Kiribayama (vs Takayasu) M1-M8 2: Nishikigi (vs Hoshoryu) 1: Wakamotoharu (vs Daieisho) 1: Ura (vs Ichinojo) 1: Kiribayama (vs Takayasu) 6: Tobizaru (vs Hokutofuji) 1: Ichiyamamoto (vs Takarafuji) 3: Oho (vs Sadanoumi) 5: Ryuden (vs Endo) 4: Aoiyama (vs Terutsuyoshi) 1: Okinoumi (vs Tochinoshin) M9+ 1: Ichiyamamoto (vs Takarafuji) 3: Oho (vs Sadanoumi) 5: Ryuden (vs Endo) 4: Aoiyama (vs Terutsuyoshi) 1: Okinoumi (vs Tochinoshin) 1: Tsurugisho (vs Chiyotairyu)

Entries received Day 12 Jakusotsu Nishikigi Chiyotairyu Yutakayama Fujisan Nishikigi Takayasu Yutakayama Athenayama Hokutofuji Takayasu Myogiryu tsunamiko Takayasu Chiyotairyu Yutakayama Gaijingai Ichinojo Kotonowaka Myogiryu WAKATAKE Nishikigi Takayasu Yutakayama Gernobono Takayasu Nishikigi Chiyotairyu HaraKiri x x x RaeucherLax Takayasu Chiyotairyu Kotoshoho shimodahito x x x Sumo Spiffy Nishikigi Chiyotairyu Myogiryu Koorifu x x x Gansekiiwa x x x Standings after Day 12 Lots of missing entries today. Name Base Pts Bonus Pts Total Jakusotsu 106 56 162 Fujisan 108 51 159 tsunamiko 110 45 155 Athenayama 91 63 154 WAKATAKE 85 57 142 Gernobono 101 41 142 Gaijingai 93 48 141 RaeucherLax 84 47 131 HaraKiri 78 45 123 Sumo Spiffy 71 45 116 shimodahito 70 39 109 Koorifu 68 36 104 Gansekiiwa 59 39 98

Athenayama sends me a PM with the day's guesses in it.

13 Wakatakakage

Day 12 match-ups Sanyaku 3: Nishikigi (vs Mitakeumi) 2: Hokutofuji (vs Takakeisho) 1: Shodai (vs Hoshoryu) 2: Sadanoumi (vs Daieisho) 5: Takayasu (vs Wakatakakage) 1: Kotonowaka (vs Kiribayama) 3: Ichinojo (vs Meisei) M1-M8 3: Nishikigi (vs Mitakeumi) 2: Hokutofuji (vs Takakeisho) 2: Sadanoumi (vs Daieisho) 5: Takayasu (vs Wakatakakage) 1: Kotonowaka (vs Kiribayama) 3: Ichinojo (vs Meisei) 2: Tsurugisho (vs Takarafuji) 1: Ichiyamamoto (vs Endo) 1: Terutsuyoshi (vs Onosho) 5: Chiyotairyu (vs Aoiyama) M9+ 2: Tsurugisho (vs Takarafuji) 1: Ichiyamamoto (vs Endo) 1: Terutsuyoshi (vs Onosho) 5: Chiyotairyu (vs Aoiyama) 1: Myogiryu (vs Oho) 1: Chiyoshoma (vs Takanosho) 1: Kotoshoho (vs Mitoryu) 5: Yutakayama (vs Okinoumi)

Entries received Day 11 Fujisan Nishikigi Takayasu Aoiyama Jakusotsu Sadanoumi Takayasu Aoiyama tsunamiko Nishikigi Takayasu Aoiyama Athenayama Sadanoumi Hokutofuji Takayasu Gaijingai Kiribayama Takayasu Aoiyama WAKATAKE Sadanoumi Ura Takayasu Gernobono Sadanoumi Ichinojo Takayasu HaraKiri Shodai Takayasu Ichiyamamoto RaeucherLax Kiribayama Takayasu Mitoryu shimodahito Ichinojo Takayasu Mitoryu Sumo Spiffy Sadanoumi Kiribayama Takayasu Koorifu Sadanoumi Takayasu Ichiyamamoto Gansekiiwa x x x Standings after Day 11 Name Base Pts Bonus Pts Total Jakusotsu 101 53 154 Fujisan 103 48 151 Athenayama 85 57 142 tsunamiko 100 39 139 Gaijingai 92 45 137 WAKATAKE 80 54 134 Gernobono 91 35 126 HaraKiri 78 45 123 RaeucherLax 73 38 111 shimodahito 70 39 109 Sumo Spiffy 65 39 104 Koorifu 68 36 104 Gansekiiwa 59 39 98

Entries received Day 10 Fujisan Tamawashi Hokutofuji Takarafuji Jakusotsu Daieisho Tamawashi Ryuden Athenayama Tamawashi Hokutofuji Ryuden Gaijingai Tamawashi Kiribayama Ryuden WAKATAKE Tamawashi Kiribayama Ryuden tsunamiko Tamawashi Takarafuji Ryuden Gansekiiwa x x x Gernobono Daieisho Tamawashi Takarafuji HaraKiri Tamawashi Endo Takarafuji RaeucherLax Daieisho Tamawashi Takanosho shimodahito Tamawashi Takarafuji Endo Sumo Spiffy Tamawashi Hokutofuji Ryuden Koorifu Tamawashi Hokutofuji Ryuden Standings after Day 10 Name Base Pts Bonus Pts Total Fujisan 103 48 151 Jakusotsu 99 50 149 tsunamiko 100 39 139 Athenayama 83 54 137 Gaijingai 92 45 137 WAKATAKE 78 51 129 Gernobono 89 32 121 HaraKiri 77 42 119 RaeucherLax 73 38 111 shimodahito 70 39 109 Sumo Spiffy 63 36 99 Koorifu 66 33 99 Gansekiiwa 59 39 98

I'd say that Tochimaru should warrant a ~ rather than an X. The best he can do is a 6-9, and we've seen a few 6-9s save their Juryo rank when there aren't decent candidates to promote. Here we only have one decent candidate so far, Roga who should be taking Asanowaka's spot (assuming that he's going down). I'd also X out Sadanoumi. At most we'll have two spots open in Sanyaku and he should already be behind Tobizaru and Tamawashi even if he wins out. EDIT: I think Ura and Meisei will also be out too.

12 Tobizaru I'd like to see a sanyaku opponent, but I don't think there is a good fit.

That makes sense, otherwise they'd have to ruin the Sandanme yusho race.

I'd also like to say thank you for doing the tables. I know how long they can take.

My understanding of Asashosakari's method, which I used, was to base the X/O in a rank-number combination rather than percentages from the db. Whether or not any gets demoted depends on the records of the people around them including those on the other side of the division line. Let's say we have a 6-9 J13w. He has a demotable record by the numbers. Let's also say we have a 7-0 Ms7, a 5-2 Ms1e and a 6-1 Ms1w and the next best promotion candidates are a pair of 4-3s at Ms4. If our J13w is the third most demotable rikishi then they are not likely to stay. If however there are four more demotable rikishi ahead of him in the queue then he has a good chance of staying as a 4-3 at Ms4 might well be considered not good enough to force down a 6-9 J13. So a 7-8 J13 probably has done enough to avoid demotion and can be marked with a O; a 6-9 will need some banzuke luck and should be marked ~ and a 5-10 or worse is probably getting demoted regardless and should be an X. The X means has not met the target for a desired outcome and the O means has met the target. If your target is not being demoted then for an M16 the target is 8 wins, for M14-15 7 wins, M12-13 6 wins etc. If your target is being promoted then the target is 8 for J1, 9 for J2-3, 10 for J4-5 etc. Of course, for promotions to Makuuchi we've often seen cases where rikishi get promoted a couple of wins short of target.

My apologies for not getting this out sooner. Day 11 match-ups Sanyaku 1: Shodai (vs Wakamotoharu) 2: Sadanoumi (vs Mitakeumi) 4: Nishikigi (vs Takakeisho) 3: Hoshoryu (vs Wakatakakage) 3: Ichinojo (vs Kotonowaka) 1: Kiribayama (vs Meisei) M1-M8 1: Shodai (vs Wakamotoharu) 2: Sadanoumi (vs Mitakeumi) 4: Nishikigi (vs Takakeisho) 3: Ichinojo (vs Kotonowaka) 1: Kiribayama (vs Meisei) 2: Ura (vs Tobizaru) 2: Hokutofuji (vs Tamawashi) 4: Takayasu (vs Myogiryu) 1: Yutakayama (vs Takarafuji) 5: Aoiyama (vs Okinoumi) 1: Tsurugisho (vs Onosho) 2: Tochinoshin (vs Ryuden) M9+ 4: Takayasu (vs Myogiryu) 1: Yutakayama (vs Takarafuji) 5: Aoiyama (vs Okinoumi) 1: Tsurugisho (vs Onosho) 2: Tochinoshin (vs Ryuden) 1: Mitoryu (vs Kotoeko) 2: Ichiyamamoto (vs Takanosho) 1: Terutsuyoshi (vs Kotoshoho) 1: Hiradoumi (vs Oho)

We don't really have any precedent (that I've come across) for what would happen if someone ranked that low went 7-0 and there were no open slots available. I don't think Tochimaru would be in banzuke luck category yet either. The banzuke luck usually means good luck for the rikishi marked as such. If he stays in Juryo at 7-8 that would be expected. If he gets demoted with a 7-8 that would be bad luck for him.

The Juryo-Makushita line seems even more rigid at the moment with demotions only happening if they can't be denied or if someone makes an undeniable claim from Makushita. They've been pretty stingy on promotions to Juryo recently and I would think a 7-8 from J13 should be pretty safe.

I disagree that Tsurugisho is a confirmed demotion. When Mitoryu won the Juryo Yusho and had a strong promotable record as was not promoted because there were no open slots available for him, and that was with Chiyonokuni sitting at 7-8 one slot up from the bottom of the division. A 7-8 for Tsurugisho would not be a demotable record unless it was forced by something undeniable from Juryo (or the banzuke committee decides to become like Bench Sumo and allows for more fluid movements). I've adjusted in red what traditionally have been the numbers required for safety and I think Ryuden and Kotoeko are safe.

Which is what happened. I was thinking Tamawashi if Terunofuji was still in, but Ura if he was out (so they could do Tobizaru - Tamawashi)

A kyujo or two could have a big difference, but I'm not going to be able to pay attention to the injury news today. 11. Ura

Here you go. I hadn't noticed that the original query did not include 0 wins. Also this

It's because you added losses in. The db doesn't count absences as losses. So the starting at MK query is now this and the starting at KK is now this.

Day 10 match-ups Sanyaku 3: Daieisho (vs Terunofuji) 4: Hoshoryu (vs Takakeisho) 7: Shodai (vs Ichinojo) 20* Tamawashi (vs Mitakeumi) 3: Ura (vs Wakatakakage) 3: Kiribayama (vs Tobizaru) M1-M8 20* Tamawashi (vs Mitakeumi) 3: Ura (vs Wakatakakage) 3: Kiribayama (vs Tobizaru) 1: Midorifuji (vs Kotonowaka) 1: Nishikigi (vs Meisei) 4: Hokutofuji (vs Takayasu) 3: Sadanoumi (vs Tochinoshin) 8: Takarafuji (vs Myogiryu) 1: Endo (vs Kotoeko) 1: Tsurugisho (vs Aoiyama) M9+ 8: Takarafuji (vs Myogiryu) 1: Endo (vs Kotoeko) 1: Tsurugisho (vs Aoiyama) 1: Takanosho (vs Okinoumi) 3: Ryuden (vs Chiyoshoma)

Entries received Day 9 Fujisan Daieisho Kotoshoho Azumaryu Jakusotsu Daieisho Kotoshoho Azumaryu Athenayama Daieisho Kotoshoho Azumaryu Gaijingai Kiribayama Shodai Ichiyamamoto WAKATAKE Daieisho Midorifuji Mitoryu Gansekiiwa Kiribayama Kotoshoho Azumaryu tsunamiko Daieisho Kotoshoho Azumaryu Gernobono Midorifuji Kotoshoho Azumaryu HaraKiri Midorifuji Kotoshoho Azumaryu RaeucherLax Midorifuji Kotoshoho Azumaryu shimodahito Midorifuji Kotoshoho Nishikifuji Koorifu Kiribayama Kotoshoho Azumaryu Sumo Spiffy Daieisho Midorifuji Azumaryu Standings after Day 9 Name Base Pts Bonus Pts Total Fujisan 75 45 120 Jakusotsu 74 42 116 Athenayama 60 48 108 Gaijingai 69 39 108 WAKATAKE 55 45 100 tsunamiko 69 30 99 Gansekiiwa 59 39 98 Gernobono 59 24 83 HaraKiri 48 33 81 RaeucherLax 50 30 80 shimodahito 41 30 71 Sumo Spiffy 40 30 70 Koorifu 43 27 70