Rocks

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Everything posted by Rocks

  1. Rocks

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2020

    Yes, I did. Thanks.
  2. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    Okay, but I don't think anyone cares. Sorry it took so long. Bust at work all day. Anyway, before I basically said make it 2 points down each step away from the correct score and maybe a point for a correct pick of a KK or MK. But that really just spreads the scores out, doesn't change the system to benefit correctly taking a risk. Instead I came out with something I call Plus Side scoring. But I have no idea how you would implement it. Hopefully this makes sense. The key part of this would be that scoring would move away from the correct score at an uneven pace depending on the rikishi MK or KK. If a rikishi KKs and scores an 8 the scoring would be: 0 (-4) 1(-2) 2(0) 3(2) 4(4) 6(6) 7(8) 8(10) 9(9) 10(7) 11(5) 12(3) 13(1) 14(-1) 15 (-3) The points would change with the score so the same rikishi scoring 12 would be: 0(-14) 1(-12) 2(-10) 3(-8) 4(-6) 5(-4) 6(-2) 7(0) 8(2) 9(4) 10 (6) 11(8) 12 (10) 13 (9) 14(7) 15 (5) The point of this being the player who errs on the high side for a score for a KK would do better. Same for erring low on a MK. The rikishi getting an MK the points system would flip. So a rikishi scoring a 7 would be: 0(-3) 1(-1) 2(1) 3(3) 4(5) 5(7) 6 (9) 7(10) 8(8) 9(6) 10(4) 11(2) 12(0) 13(-2) 14(-4) 15 (-6) and so on...
  3. Rocks

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2020

    Well, unless Shodai loses out I expect it's pretty clear cut. Shodai for Sekiwake and Hokutofuji/Endo for Komusubi.
  4. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    Yes, the answer to the Yokozuna status is simply to treat then as regular rikishi at this point, a 7 or 8. Thanks to the games scoring. In the past 2 years or so Hak and Kak have only finished the same basho about a 1/3 of the time and it will only get worse. Picking 7/8s for them means at worst you get a minus 1 out of those picks. Which is probably the best you can hope for in the future. BTW, I came up with a even better way to shake up the scoring.
  5. Rocks

    Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

    Pretty weird watching Takayasu and Goeido fighting this basho. Basically only putting up real effort against other Ozeki or former Ozeki. You would think they were still cruising through the rest of their schedule like in the past instead of losing left and right.
  6. Unbelievable. Losses everywhere. What a time to have 2 bad days. Lost a tiebreaker in SG to a higher placed winner in position 9. I can not catch a friggin' break this basho.
  7. Rocks

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite January 2020

    Chalk one up for the Kyokai.
  8. Rocks

    Arawashi intai

    Wow, tough guy. Good career. Best of luck to him.
  9. Rocks

    Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

    Tokushoryu-Shodai Day 14
  10. Well, I picked a heck of a time to go into a slump this basho in dailies. I think my pre-basho lineup for this basho is probably the worst I've ever picked.
  11. So sad to read another article full of cynicism and lies just to promote feminism. For the sport to grow, and for his dojo to flourish, it can’t afford to create barriers. He thinks there’s room in Japan for two versions of the sport: one filled with rituals and theatrics — and only men — and one that is open to both genders and focused on athleticism and competition. “That way, the tradition can be observed by the professional sumo group," he said. "And in the meantime, sumo as a sport can prosper separately.” I wonder how it must feel to be a pro rikishi and have someone who trains rikishi think what you are doing doesn't focus on athleticism and competition. Or that you aren't concerned with it's prosperity. No one involved with any part of this article, outside the female wrestlers, cares in any real way for the sport of sumo or wrestling. Read this article on wrestling and compare to the Washington Post's about the future of any type of wrestling and what focusing on getting women involved leads to: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristidosh/2016/03/17/the-future-of-collegiate-wrestling-isnt-at-division-i-level/#53e79d162fcc
  12. Rocks

    Norizo Cup 2020.1

    I think that is right. Meisei is technically higher on the banzuke than Enho at M5e to M5w. Was the translation right. Was it supposed to be higher than M5? @Susanoo
  13. Rocks

    New recruits for Haru 2020

    How old is he?
  14. Rocks

    Happy Birthday, Sakura!

  15. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    60-40 split favoring Kagayaki. That's about what I figured. But I was pretty sure those 60% would be wrong. Kagayaki went against type and pulled it out. Yesterday was a tough day to pick to find a match that could be even AND wasn't a snoozefest like a match between 2 low rankers with losing records. I'm not suggesting the ISP match needs to be evenly split every day. Just that the pick presents some kind of real option for the players to pick either rikishi. Kagayaki is higher ranked and had 1 more win this basho. He should attract more picks. But he and Tochiozan are pretty evenly matched physically. They have both done well this basho and last. They both won the last 3 matches. Tochiozan had a slight edge face to face. Tochiozan was going for KK and Kagayaki had his. There was plenty of reason to pick Tochiozan. He just didn't win.
  16. Rocks

    Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

    Yeah, but don't forget he has been manhandled by the best of them. I'm sure to him it was nothing special.
  17. Damn, I knew I should have picked Mitakeumi instead of Kaisei in SG.
  18. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    Tough day. I wanted Shohozan-Yutakayama but only if Shohozan won. He didn't. Tochiozan - Kagayaki would be my pick.
  19. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    That seems a bit lopsided but it is an Ozeki versus an M2. Yes, Mitakeumi is better than that, but not much so in this and last basho. The opposite for Takakeisho. Plus Taka had beaten Mita 3 of the prior 4. I would expect it about 66-34 for Takakeisho. Given that many of these players play a lot of the games and virtually all of them picked Takakeisho as their Ozeki pick I'm not surprised in went to 72-25. People will, subconsciously or not, pick who they want to win unless it's too far fetched like Endo-Enho. I've picked Ikioi too many times this basho exactly because I think he should and want him to win. He's looking terrible this basho. I finally picked against him last night. And lost of course.
  20. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    Yes, I know. I merely gave it as an example with regards to your ultimate goal. As I pointed out, twice, it was not meant as anything else. Yes, I that was listed as one of many factors. Not sole criterion. And I am aware of the adage of "On any given Sunday..." but that won't be putting the odds makers out of work any time soon. Odd sumo had Endo as only a 2-1 favorite (Yes, I know the formula doesn't really work like that) which was Odd to me. Which probably explains why only 1 person picked him despite many needing a big win. I would have said 4-5 at least. To put actual money on Enho you would have had to give me 9 or 10 to win and even then I would have thought twice about it and it wouldn't have been much money. Were you attempting to break a log jam at the top in picking Endo-Enho? There were only 2 players still undefeated on Day 7. The status quo isn't related to 1, a few players or the Top 10, it encompasses the entire field. Being one of the few picking a long shot is always going to pay off big. For individual players it changes their status quo radically. That is the entire point in picking a long shot. That is why players make long shot picks in games like TUG and Odd. Especially later in the game when they are reduced to long shots to attempt to gain on the field because their record is poor or they are trying to improve their tiebreaker in a game like TTT. Fortunately for 3 of the leaders it paid off on Day 8. But I would not think that is typical. As far as for this particular ISP I don't think many would describe it, and the Top 10, as typical. In any case on Day 8 3 of the top 10 changed position. On day 9, 4. More importantly only 8% of the field changed position relative to each other on Day 8, 50% did so on Day 9. People moved and people moved down. Large numbers of them. That is changing the status quo.
  21. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    It wouldn't be good for the game which is why I said I wasn't advocating it. So, we agree. It would just make too many basho go to 15-0 and tiebreakers and that's never the best way to determine a winner. I can see your desire here and changing the rules to not allow Y/Os does achieve what you want, which is to effect the outcome of the game. Picking a match like Endo-Enho has the exact OPPOSITE effect. It does everything possible to ensure the status quo will remain in effect for another day. Hindsight, in this case, has nothing do do with it. The pick spread here was entirely predictable and played out as almost anyone would have predicted it. To think otherwise there has to be some scenario, outside of "Hey, I REALLY like Enho", to pick Enho. Based on the most typical things used to predict a match there is no scenario. Has one dominated their match ups? Never faced each other. Injuries? Nope. Is Enho taller or stronger? No. The exact opposite. Has Endo been doing bad? He's maintained a place in joi for the past 5 basho even making sanyaku. Having one of the best years of his career. Well, Enho has done well too. So well he has earned his his FIRST basho at M5 or higher. Which is great. But as everybody knows it's also the place most rikishi put up a bad number. Most importantly, how have the rikishi been doing THIS basho? Enho had lost 4 of his last 6 matches. The wins coming against Meisei wrestling with 1 arm and on his way to kyujo along with Shohozan who slipped and fell. The only good win he had was against Takarafuji all the way back on Day 1. By any standard Enho was having a bad basho. Endo? He was 6-1 having devastated the sanyaku and earned 2 kinboshi. Face-planting Hakuho of all people. The GOAT. His only loss coming against Takakesiho, who outside of injury is among the best rikishi in the past 2 years. Oh yeah, he was also tied for the yusho lead. Now, I ask again. Under what scenario does one imagine this will be anything other than a 90-10 split? Don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting I am great at picking the split on these things. There is many a day I see the split and see it's even on a match that was a no brainer as far as I thought. And I make plenty of gut calls in picks. But if I had any inkling in my gut to pick Enho here I would have put it down to being more about the McDonald's I had for lunch than anything else and chose Endo. This match was picked for the reasons stated. It was high profile and fun, at least for the person picking the match. I would not say that is true for those picking who will win. Part of what makes doing that is reviewing the history. Maybe being so tough I am even compelled to rewatch the video for this basho of the rikishis matches. In other words being forced to spend some time with the pick. In this case it took me longer to to move the mouse pointer across the screen or type to pick Endo then it took to think about the pick. Having been wrong doesn't change that. The same way it had little to no effect on those 2 games. I can not only feel safe picking Endo in ISP and putting him 5, or at worst 4, in DST because I could be sure almost everyone I was competing against would do the same. Heck, I'm practically compelled to do so. Doing otherwise would have been the equivalent of picking one legged Tsurugisho over Tokushoryu on Day 9. Finally I think picking this match night have actually decreased to some degree the enjoyment of watching this match for some players. I have never been a Endo or Enho fan. Some are. Some are both. Pandaazuma likes Enho as many do. They also want to win the games. I wonder, even if you admire Enho pulling off the win, that enjoyment was decreased to some degree by having it in their minds they had picked Endo to win? For me? I would prefer high profile matches to be free of such considerations when I watch them. In fact many of the boring picks made for the games actually makes me care about that match which adds to my enjoyment of the day. Want to pick matches that are likely to be lopsided in picks? Beat down those Machines? Go for it. But do it in matches that at least give some reason to pick the upset. A good match today is Tokushoryu - Chiyomaru. The machines will be wanting the former, their record and my gut is telling me that later. Chiyomaru is a funny guy to pick but I know this, he gives certain people fits. I am glad to see it in DST. It will add to my enjoyment tonight. Because otherwise I couldn't give a rat's ass about that match. I'll need no help in being interested in the Takakeisho-Enho match. As far as an even split with some profile I would agree Endo-Mitakeumi is best for tonight. Although I expect the split will be less even than it would have been given Mita winning the day before against someone he struggles with and Endo losing so unceremoniously to Abi.
  22. Rocks

    Games Bugs

    Were changes made to the site? If not, considering the problem is the site timing out looks like it may be an issue with your hosting service. Is their site also having issues?
  23. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    The problem is the pick is almost the functional equivalent of picking a fusen bout with regards to the game. The outcome, while pleasing to you, has little impact on the overall game. It provides little movement in the standings. It makes the game less competitive. It essentially wastes a day in what is a very short game to begin with. The outcome of the match doesn't change the fact the pick was too easy. I have no idea why you would not expect so large a pick difference. I was shocked to see even 12 had picked Enho. There was no logical reason to do so. But ISP does have more casual players who are likely to pick based on desire for an outcome alone. As far as your "ultimate goal" I would have to ask how you came to thinking this is a desirable goal? I would think that in running a game your goal would be to have as many players as possible believe they can win for as long as possible. if this is the goal why not allow picking Yokozuna and Ozeki from the start in CG? Or the same rikishi more than 3 times? It's pretty rare a rikishi goes 15-0. In doing so you would be sure to kill large numbers of players on an upset. At least that would probably keep more players in the game longer. I'm not advocating for that, just using it as an example.
  24. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    I wasn't talking about the outcome. If everyone picks the same person who wins doesn't matter much.
  25. Rocks

    Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

    Well, virtually everyone made the same pick. No surprise. I don't see the fun in that.