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Everything posted by Atenzan

  1. Atenzan

    Banzuke for Kyushu 2019

    While on the subject, is the weeks-long gap between banzuke compilation and release just to build up the hype for the next basho or is there another reason?
  2. Atenzan

    GTB- Guess the Banzuke- Kyushu 2019 -and results!!

    All 47 M1e 9-6 have been promoted to san'yaku.
  3. Atenzan

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2019

    Now I'm not very well connected with the Kyokai or Hezbollah, but presumably people reading this are. Let's hope for 1/2 at least anyway. I will only say this once. Any fewer than 5 komusubi will be considered to be an act of cowardice. Your move.
  4. Atenzan

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2019

    All 47 M1e 9-6 have been promoted to san'yaku. Also, all 16 M2w 10-5 have enjoyed the same. I think Hokutofuji definitely gets promoted, Asanoyama might be too. I'm leaning on Abi staying at komusubi.
  5. Atenzan

    Takakeisho injury update

    Good thing he can take at least 3.5 months off...
  6. Atenzan

    ISP Banzuke Kyushu 2019

    Cheer up, no need to despair about losing your touch, Moti... you've been destined to eat hats for a while Signed, the guy who made about 20 posts in 2016 on the subject of Kisenosato never becoming yokozuna
  7. Atenzan

    Ounomatsu Oyakata kyujo for Nagoya

    I did a very crude analysis through life tables that can be found on the "Izutsu has died" thread and the conclusion was that a sekitori has roughly the same risk of dying between the ages of 25 and 60 as the typical American man. Higher risk than the average Japanese man, but nothing dramatic. I think people often underestimate the sizable chunk of people who die in middle age.
  8. Atenzan

    Sumo Reference Updates

    Rouga's real name is reported here to be Амартүвшин Амарсанаа (Amartuvshin Amarsanaa), consistent with the Japanese version of the DB. What's up with the English version's question marks?
  9. Atenzan

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2019

    脈留 - absent vein?
  10. Atenzan

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2019

    I'm looking forward to the rest of you cowering and brooding while I drink half a bottle of gin before making my final draft to win the yusho with 39 points.
  11. Atenzan

    Retirees after Aki 2019

    Very aesthetic typo- Miyazkai sounds like a storied Pashtun clan.
  12. Atenzan

    Izutsu-oyakata has died

    The ultimate conclusion is that being a rikishi increases your risk of dying before 60 pretty much as if you were an American man instead of a Japanese man.
  13. In the Oyakata Gallery page, it's stated that you either need to be Y/O, have 25 basho in san'yaku or 60 in makuuchi to become a shisho. Is that true, and if so, how did people like Miyagino and Ootake come to be shisho?
  14. Atenzan

    Izutsu-oyakata has died

    If the rate of life expectancy was linear or close to it between the years 1985 and 2019, you can expect it to be. It's not an exact figure, just the best estimate I'm willing to make without getting paid ;)
  15. Atenzan

    Izutsu-oyakata has died

    Yeah, not really. Significant? Yes. Huge? No. Using my minimum-effort method, a rough estimate is that 9.04% of Japanese men aged 25 in 1985 would die before reaching the age of 60 in 2020.
  16. Atenzan

    Izutsu-oyakata has died

    You'd be surprised. I just downloaded the US life tables from 2002, being the midpoint of 1985 and 2019, and the CDC version includes a "number of survivors by age and sex per 100,000 live births" matrix. Using it for a rough estimate, a 25-year-old American man in 1985 had a 13.41% chance of dying before the year 2019, in which he'd turn 59 or 60, was out. edit: you can download them here
  17. Atenzan

    Izutsu-oyakata has died

    Finally my demographics class can prove itself useful! Unfortunately, that's not how several things work. A mortality rate refers to the number of deaths *in one specific year* divided by the population in the midpoint of that span (generally July 1st in calendar years, even though it's not the midpoint of the year). So, it is expected that in a population with the characteristics of 2004 USA (the set), we can assume that 900 deaths of 55-59 year old males will come from a population of 100,000 55-59 year old males in the next year. Contrast that to a risk of death, which is the number of deaths coming from a population in one year divided by the total population at the *start* of that year. Said population is usually sex- and age-specific. I'm afraid your 13.6% figure isn't a mortality rate at all, nor is the population it concerns "55- to 65-year-old males". It is the estimator of the cumulative risk of death for an Aki 1984 sekitori from 1985-2019. To approximately compare it with the contrasting figure for the American population, you have to take the product of the complements for the risks of death that match the ages of the sekitori in question for each year (e. g., one minus risk of death for 28-year-old males in 1985 multiplied by one minus risk of death for 29-year-old males in 1986, etc until 2019), and then subtract the whole thing from 1.
  18. Atenzan

    2019 Aki Basho Discussion (spoiler alert!)

    D'oh! So obvious. Never thought of that. Now I can read my least favourite newspapers without paying them even more. Thanks for enabling me to worsen my quality of life.
  19. Atenzan

    2019 Aki Basho Discussion (spoiler alert!)

    Not even sure about the "these days" - in any case, Kotoshougiku seems to like being a rikishi. Let him fight till he's 50 for all I care. He's past his prime, for sure, but still holding up as one of the top 30 or 40 pros in the world. That should be good enough for anyone.
  20. Atenzan

    Trivia bits

    Lost to Sadanohikari today. Sic transit gloria mundi.
  21. Atenzan

    Trivia bits

    Sd75e Suzuki is two wins away from becoming the first rikishi to have successive records of 4-3, 5-2, 6-1, 7-0. He is the 160th toriteki to be a zensho away from achieving this, and all his predecessors have failed.
  22. Atenzan

    Chaingang uprising

    After skidding through unscathed after day 4 through auto-pick, having worked until 4 am and fallen asleep literally on my own desk, I feel like your man Samuel L. Jackson's character in Pulp Fiction. Shots have been fired all around me and I've still stuck around, saved by a miracle.
  23. Atenzan

    Enho - predictions?

    My friend, a 22-year-old shipwright-to-be, can be generally found in the vicinity of northern Athens foaming at the mouth, ranting to anyone who'll listen that they still have to learn FORTRAN as part of their studies.
  24. Atenzan

    Hakuho Applying for Japanese Citizenship

    Not Davaajargaliin? Do the Japanese authorities disallow the patronymic form?
  25. Atenzan

    Banzuke Surfing Nagoya 2019 (14th Wave)

    Eh, not particularly. The tennou you're thinking of is 'heavenly emperor', this one is 'heavenly king'. 天皇 vs. 天王。