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Everything posted by kumoryu

  1. kumoryu

    Basho Talk ** Haru Basho 2017 ** (SPOILERS)

    Incidentally, I'm outrageously happy that we are seriously -- or semi-seriously -- discussing the prospects of a Takayasu Ozeki promotion or a Takayasu yusho. I've been a huge fan for many years -- to the point of going to meet his family last time I went to the kokugikan in Tokyo. I've never allowed myself to really believe he could rise to the highest level, but it does seem just around the corner now. I'm so excited!
  2. kumoryu

    Basho Talk ** Haru Basho 2017 ** (SPOILERS)

    Surely they wouldn't promote him. The three basho would include a makekoshi, another would be as komusubi. Even a zensho yusho wouldn't tip the scales, I think. edit -- promote him to ozeki, I mean; S1E is a different matter
  3. kumoryu

    Basho Talk - Hatsu Basho 2017 ** (SPOILERS)

    Regarding the idea of a changing of the guard / generational shift, I looked at the age of the current Makuuchi rikishi. I think we can think of five age-groups: rikishi born 1979-1983 (veterans); those born 1984-1986 (at or past their peak); born 1987-1989 (at or approaching peak); born 1990-1992 (prospects, peak as yet unknown); and 1993-1996 (youngsters). Normally, you would expect a smooth bell-curve distribution with the biggest number in the middle group, but in fact it looks like this: 1979-1983: 2 1984-1986: 15 1987-1989: 6 1990-1992: 16 1993-1996: 3 Basically, there's a missing generation. The rikishi in the middle group (people like Tochinoshin, Takarafuji, Tochiozan) are not stepping up. It's the next generation (Terunofuji, Takayasu, Shodai) who look like prospects. So I would say there is a "double generation" shift happening here. The absence of potential in that middle group means the older guys can hold on longer and the younger guys can move ahead quicker, but the end result is that the changing of the guard, when it happens, will be twice as dramatic.
  4. kumoryu

    Basho Talk - Kyushu Basho 2016 ** (SPOILERS)

    I'm struggling to see how that was a yusho-equivalent. It looks like a pretty standard jun-yusho, but two off the pace at 12-3 doesn't seem equivalent to a yusho AFAICS.
  5. kumoryu

    New recruits for Kyushu 2016

    Wow, that was really stupid of me. Thansks
  6. kumoryu

    New recruits for Kyushu 2016

    I'm sorry if this is a really stupid question, but that table seems to add up to 18 wins against 9 losses. Where do the extra wins come from?
  7. kumoryu

    Basho Talk - Kyushu Basho 2016 ** (SPOILERS)

    I haven't seen this mentioned elsewhere -- guess this is the place to put it. The race for most wins this calendar year isn't decided yet. Kisenosato came into the basho with a one-win lead over Harumafuji, if my maths is right; so with Harumafuji one ahead of Kisenosato so far this basho they are currently level-pegging with seven bouts to go. They both have a five-win lead over Hakuho, so he's effectively out of the running. What are the odds on Kisenosato winning this duel? And when was the last time Hakuho didn't win this? When was the last time an Ozeki took the title? Is there a database search that can show a list of year-by-year winners?
  8. Can someone post the sansho winners, please?
  9. Harumafuji's loss means there is a slightly better chance that Kise can get a jun-yusho and keep his tsuna run alive. The irony would be if it was Takayasu who prevented that from happening.
  10. Today's matchup between Kise and Goeido is pretty huge for Kise's future, isn't it? If he wins, he's one off the pace and still in the yusho conversation; if he loses, he's three off the pace and probably not even in the jun-yusho picture, and bye-bye for now his yokozuna hopes. That's a lot riding on one bout.
  11. kumoryu

    The next rijicho?

    Who will be the next rijicho? This is, I think, a roll-call of the postwar rijicho: 1944–1957 Dewanoumi (31st yokozuna Tsunenohana) 1957–1968 Tokitsukaze (35th yokozuna Futabayama) 1968–1974 Musashigawa (ex maegashira Dewanohana) 1974–1988 Kasugano (44th yokozuna Tochinishiki) 1988–1992 Futagoyama (45th yokozuna Wakanohana) 1992–1998 Dewanoumi/Sakaigawa (50th yokozuna Sadanoyama) 1998–2002 Tokitsukaze (ex ozeki Yutakayama) 2002–2008 Kitanoumi (55th yokozuna Kitanoumi) [1st term] 2008–2010 Musashigawa (57th yokozuna Mienoumi) 2010–2012 Hanaregoma (ex ozeki Kaiketsu) 2012–2015 Kitanoumi (55th yokozuna Kitanoumi) [2nd term] 2015– Hakkaku (61st yokozuna Hokutoumi) Hakkaku’s current term will run till 2018, and he can be reelected for two more terms, taking him to 2022 before mandatory retirement age clicks in. So who will follow, given the obvious bias to choose a former yokozuna (62 out of 74 years in the period 1944-2018)? The remaining former yokozuna are as follows [with mandatory retirement in parentheses]: 62 Onokuni [2022] 63 Asahifuji [2020] 64 Akebono [no longer in sumo] 65 Takanohana [2032] 66 Wakanohana [no longer in sumo] 67 Musashimaru [2031] 68 Asashoryu [no longer in sumo] Both Onokuni and Asahifuji are of the same generation as Hakkaku, so even if one of them got the job it wouldn’t extend the mandatory retirement date beyond 2022. Beyond that, there’s only Takanohana and Musashimaru; I suspect that Takanohana is not well liked, and that Musashimaru would be disqualified as not being sufficiently Japanese. So who else could they go to? The list of former ozeki, by age and excluding rikishi who are no longer in sumo, is: Musoyama, Kaio, Dejima, Chiyotaikai, Tochiazuma, Miyabiyama, Kotooshu Sorry for the long-winded build-up, but the question is: who do you think will succeed Hakkaku? Will Takanohana get the call, and settle in for a decade? Or will someone like Kaio or Tochiazuma be preferred? Or will tradition be broken and someone who never made it to yokozuna/ozeki be chosen, for the first time in nearly half a century?
  12. kumoryu

    Top 10 Sumo Records Natsu 2016 Edition

    That's really quite extraordinary, isn't it? Six of the eight most frequent pairings of all time are the round-robin match-ups of just four rikishi... I mean, the chances of that happening are really very small, aren't they? Why would that happen? Why is it happening now? Edit: and I guess the fact that Kisenosato is on the losing end of all three of those match-ups is the reason he isn't a yokozuna. Kinda stark, isn't it?
  13. Clever joke! :-) No joke: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muphry%27s_law
  14. It's called British English- do you really want another topic like this? I kid. Socialising with Englishmen, Scotsmen and Aussies since the age of two has left its mark on me, as you may realise. Glamour and splendour are not my goals; it is the power of habit that makes my spelling colourful. But surely, in that case, it should be "In defence of" rather than "defense" Muphry's Law always wins.
  15. Maybe he finally saw that sports psychologist I've been talking about for years... I don't know what has happened, but he has somehow managed to deal with his head, which has always been his single greatest enemy. I thought the Geek had him twice today but the Kid managed to get out of it both times and then pull off the win. I would love for him to pull this off. A while ago Nishinoshima said the only viewpoint that counts in sumo is the long view. So I have been doing a bit of research on the database and have come up with an interesting comparison, as follows. Counting only those matches competed in (ie, not including kyujo records), the top four rikishi have the following records at their current rank: Winning percentage at the rank of Ozeki: Kisenosato = 70.25% Winning percentage at the rank of Yokozuna: Hak = 89.2% Harumafuji = 73.53% Kakaryu = 70.8% And for the sake of a historical comparison, the previous 13 Yokozunae: Asashoryu = 83.57% Akebono = 77.98% Asahifuji = 72.45% Hokotoumi = 77.4% Musashimaru = 77.7% Takanohana = 82.34% Wakanohana III = 63.54% Futahaguro = 70.47% Onokuni = 67.01% Takanosato = 71.97% Chiyonofuji = 85.61% Meinoumi = 73.33% Wakanohana II = 75.80% Based on this you would say that HF and Kak, are both at the weaker end of the Yok scale, as would Kise be if he were to get it. Nevertheless, they all have a winning percentage that fits in appropriately with what is considered a Yokozuna worthy level of performance. I would also argue that, if they hadn't had the misfortune to have been competing at the same time as Hak (the greatest of all time), HF, Kak and Kise would all have slightly better winning records than they do, and that their records are slightly lower than the historical average because they are competing at the same time as the GOAT. Based on this, the only thing missing from Kisenosato's resume is a couple of Yusho to make him Yokozuna worthy. The only real difference between him and well over half a dozen current and past Yokozuna, is his inability to win the cup at the end of the two weeks. His overall winning percentage at Ozeki, his head to head record against Hak, Kak and HF, and the number of Jun-yushos he has won, all suggest he should be a Yok. All he needs to do now is win one (hopefully this one) and I would argue he deserves the rope, based on his long term performance as an Ozeki. And for the sake of argument, the records of these guys at Ozeki is: Baruto = 66.5% Kotooshu = 59.71% Kotoshogiku = 59.79% Kaio = 62.53% Konishiki = 64.13% Tochiazuma = 63.88% Chiyotakai = 60.59% These are Ozeki level performances. Anything over 70% is Yokozuna worthy... That was really interesting, thanks. Just a couple of things I'd like to extrapolate from that. Firstly, according to those figures, Onokuni is the second-worst of the recent yokozuna, but even so a 67% win ratio works out to an average of 10-5 per tournament. Or you could flip that comment to say that averaging 10 wins is really pour for a yokozuna. These are examples of the average wins per tournament based on your figures: 10-5 Onokuni 67.01% 11-4 Harumafuji 73.53 12-3 Takanohana 82.34% 13-2 Hakuho 89.2% The average based on your figures is 75.79% -- basically halfway between 11-4 and 12-3. So if (and it's a big "if") this kind of statistic is a measure of "yokozunability" it would suggest a yokozuna should usually be expected to do better than an 11-4 record. But I always believed the measure of yokozunability was something a bit more abstract, on the lines of "consistently part of the yusho arasoi" I'm trying to find a way to quantify that concept of "consistently part of the yusho arasoi" -- and I'm experimenting with the idea that it's about being on the leaderboard into the closing days of a tournament. As an experiment, I defined this as being within two wins of the leader by the end of Day 12 -- i.e, if the leader is 12-0, you're on the leaderboard with an 11-1 or 10-2 record; if the leader is 10-2, you're on the leaderboard with a 9-3 or 8-4 record, etc. I looked as a sample at the last 12 completed basho -- which covers Kakuryu's yokozuna career. Out of those 12 basho, what I found is as follows. Number of basho on the leaderboard: 12: --- 11: Hakuho 10: --- 9: --- 8: --- 7: Kisenosato 6: Kakuryu, Harumafuji 5: --- 4: Terunofuji, Ikioi 3: ---- 2: Kotoshogiku, Goeido, Takayasu, Okinoumi, Yoshikaze, Kotoyuki, Toyonoshima 1: about 12 others This would suggest that Kisenosato is entirely performing at yokozuna level, and it's only the lack of a yusho that holds him back. I really hope he gets there.
  16. kumoryu

    Podcast - Yaocho discussion

    I'll throw wuli a biscuit here. If the fix is on and Kisenosato is scripted to win the yusho and get his tsuna, I'll predict Hakuho goes down to Kotoshogiku tomorrow. Their career head-to-head is 47-5. Of those five losses, the first was a surprise shonichi loss back in 2007; but since then, the four losses are: 2011-07 and 2011-09 -- Kotoshogiku's successful ozeki run 2014-03 -- Kakuryu's successful tsuna run when he needed the yusho for the tsuna 2016-01 -- Kotoshogiku's successful yusho These fit the sumotalk hypothesis perfectly, i.e., Kotoshogiku can't beat Hakuho straight up, but Hakuho hands out selected wins to facilitate yusho or promotion for others in order to sustain interest among the general public. Tomorrow fits the bill perfectly. If Kise has already won vs Ikioi, Hakuho hands him the sole lead; if Kise loses vs Ikioi, Hakuho keeps him as joint leader. Personally, I'm not convinced by the sumotalk hypothesis, but this string of results seems to me to be the strongest thing in support of it. So, what do you say, wuli? What are the odds on Kotoshogiku tomorrow?
  17. kumoryu

    Nishikido situation; split from kyujo thread

    Searching the Japanese internet for rumors about this stuff is fascinating. Nishikido is the name of a handsome boy-band idol, Nishikido Ryo, and "heya" of course can also mean bedroom, so one finds oneself looking for gossip about illicit goings-on in Nishikido Ryo's bedroom... No indication that he has had any Canadian visitors, as far as I can see, although that might indeed be grounds for disciplinary measures, and I suppose it ties us back into the futon discussion from earlier. (Sigh...) By which I mean, yeah, speculation is a bit meaningless at this stage.
  18. kumoryu

    Nishikido situation; split from kyujo thread

    For what it's worth, the online Japanese rumor mill is suggesting there has been a disciplinary incident within the heya, probably involving bullying, probably targeted at the foreigner, with the implication that the oyakata has taken internal disciplinary measures while the situation is resolved. There's no talk about the NSK being involved, or of any involvement of the police or other authorities, or of any long-term repercussions. So, while that would, if true, all be a serious matter, it's probably best to just let it play itself out and we'll doubtless hear an official version somewhere down the line. Until then, let's just let it rest.
  19. kumoryu

    Banzuke Natsu 2016

    To avoid confusion, could someone rename this thread "Bamduke Natu 2016" please. :-)
  20. I'm an avid reader of the 538 blog, so I'm really happy to see your interest in sumo. It looks like this short-lived blogger tried to do something like this, once: http://sumo-analysis.blogspot.jp/ It might be worth trying to contact him/her to find out if they had a methodology. One thing you will need to define if you're serious about this is whether you're just looking at makuuchi, or are going all the way down the banzuke? In terms of statistical analysis and the tools available, I guess bout length is pretty much the only readily-available tool; of course it won't automatically pinpoint henka, but it'll give an easily quantifiable structure against which to make comparisons and you could use it as a kind of rule-of-thumb -- where there's a successful henka, the bout will be over pretty soon, so you could relatively easily find a percentage of bouts where there certainly wasn't a successful henka. Obviously, henka won't always be successful, and bouts can be over quickly even without a henka, but it's maybe a start in terms of eliminating a lot of bouts from consideration. The parallel to henka that comes to my mind is mankading in cricket -- perfectly within the "laws" of the game, but frowned on as being outside the spirit. Of course mankading is very rare compared to henka, but it generates a huge wave of controversy when someone does it. I guess the phrase "it's just not cricket" is a way of understanding hinkaku or its absence.
  21. But wouldn't your link be just as appropriate if addressed to "everyone refusing to interpret this basho as ..." Personally, I don't think "everything" is scripted, certainly not in the way ST outlines; but I'm happy to take on board the idea that "some things" are scripted; it's not an either/or situation, there can be nuances. The key thing for me is that this has been a fun basho; I won't ask for more.
  22. When was the last time a Japanese rikishi was the sole leader this deep into a basho?
  23. kumoryu

    Hakuhou-left knee injury and probable kyujo

    I've been out of the country for the last two weeks and come back to see two prominent stories -- Hakuho's ex-shisho arrested; Hakuho kyujo It seems to me pretty obvious that there's a link there, but it doesn't seem to have been commented on much on this site. Surely a Hakuho kyujo would be a kind of penance on his part for his former shisho's behavior -- isn't that part of the sumo world's way of thinking?
  24. kumoryu

    Natsu 2015 Basho Talk (spoiler alert!)

    I know it's highly unlikely to happen, but just out of interest, what are the rules for setting up mega-playoffs with five, six or seven participants? I mean, obviously, two, four and eight are easy to schedule, and there are lots of precedents for three, but what happens in the case of five, six and seven? This must have happened in some of the lower divisions, at the very least.