Gurowake

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Posts posted by Gurowake


  1. 20 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

    Not sure which is harder, 42 perfect makuuchi placements or 63 perfect game winners in March Madness Tourney Pick’em

    A perfect March madness bracket is probably harder in my mind but it's also a completely different kind of prediction.  Guessing the Banzuke is guessing what a small set of people decide in compromises with each other, which is quite different than predicting the results of 60+ basketball games (I don't know how many, but aren't there play-in games so there's more than 63?) involving hundreds of people who are competing. 

    It's also impossible to guess the probabilities of either except in the absolute worst case scenario where you know nothing about the relative likelihoods of each outcome.  In such a situation, the Banzuke is actually much harder to guess (42! ~= 10^51, 2^63 ~= 10^19), but there is quite a lot that is absolutely impossible in Banzuke making, while nothing is impossible for basketball games.


  2. 4 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

    Am I the only one taken aback by all this talk about ethnical traits?

    Imagine there's no countries, it isn't hard to do...

    Ethnicity is different than nationality.  It's easy to imagine no countries.  No different cultures is an entirely different matter.


  3. 23 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

    Yeah, it depends a bit on the following sound but fu is sometimes an almost completely unvoiced exhale. The others in that row like ha hi he ho also barely get out the h sound but I think there's a lot of examples of those in English so its way easier to catch.

    You can check here, most of the words have play audio links

    https://jisho.org/search/ふ*

     

    At least with all the other h- kana, there's a vowel to be voiced in the syllable.


  4. 2 hours ago, Yubinhaad said:


    The Makushita bout can be seen and heard here, the announcement reads:

    琴大樹、魁郷の一番は、両者休場のため、両者不戦敗となります

    Thanks.  On an irrelevant note, I had to listen to the announcement like 5 times before I detected the "fu" in "fusenpai".  It sounds like he just had a bit of friction in his breathing before starting the s, not like it was a meaningful sound.  Perhaps that's normal?  Seems strange.


  5. So what do they announce when there's a double fusenpai on the schedule?  Nothing, and they just skip saying anything about it?  I don't recall exactly what the fusen banner says, but you seem to indicate it says "fusensho", which would be inappropriate to use in this situation. 


  6. 1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

    For next Font Day, only use Wingdings 1, Wingdings 2 and Wingdings 3 to troll your detractors, @Kintamayama.

    That much I do not recommend.  They should always be readable and informative.


  7. 4 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

    kids who grew up watching Chiyonofuji

    You mean, parents who grew up watching Chiyonofuji as kids?  Anyone that could have watched him as a kid is too old to get into sumo, but they might be old enough to direct where their kids go. 


  8. 1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

    I don't really see how that follows, considering they're regularly going against the by-the-numbers rank/record suggested promotions when a M1e kachikoshi is involved (most recently after Haru).

    Yes, when there's only one open slot and there's an 8-7 M1e, he gets it.  But what I meant was in relation to what they'll do when they're already making extra Komusubi, as was seen the last time it happened.  If they're already making extra ones, that leads to more being brought in, even those that normally wouldn't be, so long as without the sanyaku barrier they'd have been ranked ahead.


  9. 9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    I think the fairest thing is to have everyone who was forced to leave other than Mitakeumi (who would be frozen) be treated as winning and losing half of their remaining matches, but I have very little faith that the banzuke committee will think in the same way.  One of the problems with doing it this way is that it leads to special treatment of the projected record of the kadoban Ozeki.

    Actually, another issue with blanket applying this rule is that it would lead to Kotonowaka having a better implied rank/record than Kiribayama, which means that they'd have to consider giving him a sanyaku debut on his shortened schedule, which might be beyond the pale, especially if it meant 5 Komusubi and a difficulty of filling the joi maegashira. 

    • Like 1

  10. 11 minutes ago, Ack! said:

    This sounded looney to me at first, but when I looked at it, it protects a number of rikishi with bad starts, and only Ichiyamamoto at 6-3-6 would have much to complain about, unless there is some kind of domino effect that is not obvious from my cursory review.

    Yeah, not giving Ichiyamamoto the benefit of being KK trending and having him eligible to be promoted up to where Takarafuji and Onosho will need to end up would be definitely worthy of complaint.  The only way he could have gotten a KK before leaving was going 8-0, and it seems very strange to potentially treat a 8-0 like a 11.5-3.5 but treat a 7-1 or 6-2 just like a kosho.  There's no granularity of the movement based on performance. 

    I think the fairest thing is to have everyone who was forced to leave other than Mitakeumi (who would be frozen) be treated as winning and losing half of their remaining matches, but I have very little faith that the banzuke committee will think in the same way.  One of the problems with doing it this way is that it leads to special treatment of the projected record of the kadoban Ozeki.  They may feel they need to be consistent and freeze anyone without a determined direction of movement because they basically have to do that for Mitakeumi.  However, I feel that it does warrant different treatment because it's not a granular outcome in his case like it is for any of the other rikishi - demotion means a whole lot more for him than not bringing up Ichiyamamoto towards the joi, from where he'll likely fall back down given how the Natsu basho finished for him, plus Mitakeumi wouldn't have been demoted any further with a 0-15 than with a 7-8, and he would have had the same target number of wins to regain Ozeki regardless of MK size as well.

    I think it's incredibly unlikely that they demote Mitakeumi, simply because there is good reason to give him a pass and there is a severe lack of Ozeki and Ozeki candidates.  Hoshoryu may get there eventually, as may Kotonowaka, but no one else there looks to have been strong enough at an early enough age that it's reasonable that they'll make it, and it's quite possible it'll take another 5 years for either of those two mentioned to get there, like with Mitakeumi.


  11. *One Fusenpai ignored.

     

    Chiyomaru(6-9 M17w) J1 Shimanoumi(1-14 M9e)
    Hiradoumi/Chiyonokuni J2 Hidenoumi(6-9 J1w)
    Kagayaki(7-8 J3e) J3 Azumaryu(4-7* J2e)
    Atamifuji(8-7 J6e) J4 Asanowaka(7-8 J4e)
    Bushozan(8-7 J6w) J5 Hokuseiho(11-4 J13w)
    Akua(8-7 J7e) J6 Kotokuzan(8-7 J7w)
    Churanoumi(9-6 J9w) J7 Enho(8-7 J8w)
    Tohakuryu(3-8* J2w) J8 Daiamami(2-9* M16w)
    Daishoho(4-9* J3w) J9 Shimazuumi(5-4* J10e)
    Kaisho(5-7* J9e) J10 Tokushoryu(5-10 J5w)
    Chiyosakae(9-6 J14e) J11 Kitanowaka(8-7 J12e)
    Oshoma(5-3 J13e) J12 Kinbozan(6-1 Ms1w)
    Gonoyama(8-7 J14w) J13 Takakento(4-3 Ms1e)
    Kanno(5-2 Ms2w) J14 Tochimaru(6-9 J11w)

  12. For the first time (I think) in me doing the banzuke, we will have two Yokozuna candidates.  Konosato had an overall Yusho while ranked as Ozeki, and so will only need a Makuuchi Yusho before getting less than 10 wins.  Andoreasu continued his streak of 10-win tournaments, and with 2 tournaments over 13 wins in the streak also only needs a Makuuchi Yusho for promotion.

    For the other two Ozeki, Sakura clears kadoban, while Flohru scores an MK and will be kadoban himself.

    Once again, we had no Sekiwake KK so no ability to have any Ozeki promotion.  The new Sekiwake are Kaito, up from Komusubi, who has had at least 10 wins the last two tournaments and thus needs only 10 in the next tournament, and Gaijingai, up from Maegashira, who is in the same situation.

    Chankoyama and Torafuji repeat as Komusubi after KKs, and Kobashi is absent and also returns as Komusubi, while chishafuwaku drops from Sekiwake with at least 6.5 wins.  With 10 sanyaku already, no other Maegashira record was good enough to create additional Komusubi.

    Konosato(O2w, 15 wins) O Andoreasu(Oe, 11.15 wins)
    Sakura(O2e, 9.88 wins) O2 Flohru(Ow, 6.43 wins)
    Kaito(K2e, 11.62 wins) S Gaijingai(M2e, 11.62 wins)
    Chankoyama(K2w, 9.66 wins) K Torafujii(Kw, 8.1 wins)
    Kobashi(Ke, kosho) K2 Chishafuwaku(Sw, 6.72 wins)
         
    Asashosakari(M1w, 9.59 wins) M1 Athenayama(M2w, 10.39 wins)
    Pandaazuma(M5e, 11.3 wins) M2 Bill(M3w, 9.84 wins)
    Frinkanohana(M7w, 11.4 wins) M3 Saruyama(M4e, 8.97 wins)
    Balon(M10e, 12.38 wins) M4 GONZABUROW(Se, 5.88 wins)
    Terarno(M1e, 4.72 wins) M5 Ganzohnesushi(M5w, 6.72 wins)
    Oskahanada(M9e, 8.43 wins) M6 Unkonoyama(M12w, 10.06 wins)
    Oshirokita(M6w, 6.72 wins) M7 Taka(M7e, 6.9 wins)
    Oortael(J1e, 12.14 wins) M8 Kaiowaka(M8w, kosho)
    Anjoboshi(M6e, 5.77 wins) M9 Kajiyanosho(J2w, 12.14 wins)
    Golynohana(M11w, 8.39 wins) M10 ScreechingOwl(J4w, 12.51 wins)
    Kyoju(M15e, 8.97 wins) M11 Kintamayama(J2e, 10.36 wins)
    Nantonoyama(M4w, 1.56 wins) M12 Mariohana(M3e, 0 wins)
    Hakuryuho(M13e, kosho) M13 Oyama(M16w, 9.15 wins)
    Kutoyama(M12e, 6.65 wins) M14 Kitakachiyama(M8e, 2.91 wins)
    Choshu-yuki(M10w, 4 wins) M15 Norizo(M9w, 2.43 wins)
    Joaoiyama(J10e, 12.14 wins) M16 Kotononami(M14e, 5.56 wins)
         
         
    Yarimotsu(J4e, 8.78 wins) J1 Andonishiki(J1w, kosho)
    Ketsukai(J10w, 11.67 wins) J2 Asapedroryu(M14w, 4.21 wins)
    Gansekiiwa(J8e, 9.48 wins) J3 Hidenotora(Ms1e, 13.23 wins)
    Kuroimori(M15w, 3.63 wins) J4 Ruziklao(M13w, 0.15 wins)
    Fujisan(J3e, 5.45 wins) J5 Tomisakae(M11e, kyujo)
    Next-ozeki-ura(J5w, 6.46 wins) J6 Sutārokku(J6w, kosho)
    Takanorappa(J7e, 7.43 wins) J7 Hironoumi(M16e, 0 wins)
    Metzinowaka(J3w, 3.5 wins) J8 Akishiki(J8w, kosho)
    Achiyama(J5e, 4.84 wins) J9 KazeJihi(J13w, 8.88 wins)
    Rowitoro(J12w, 8.34 wins) J10 Susanoo(Ms4w, 11.4 wins)
    Chumsinomaru(Ms3e, 10.48 wins) J11 Reijinguoshan(J11w, 7.23 wins)
    Shatsume(J7w, 4.84 wins) J12 Jejima(J12e, 7.1 wins)
    Profomisakari(J13e, 7.57 wins) J13 TochiYESshin(Ms5e, 10.9 wins)
    Hogashi(Ms6e, 10.9 wins) J14 BariiHachiBenson(Ms6w, 10.93 wins)
         
    Arawaka(J9w, 3.63 wins) Ms1 WAKATAKE(Ms2e, 8.01 wins)
    Hagamachikuni(J9e, 2.35 wins) Ms2 Itchynotoe(Ms16w, 12.98 wins)
    Sherlockiama(Ms13w, 11.46 wins) Ms3 Wamahada(Ms3w, 7.28 wins)
    Chelseayama(J6e, kyujo) Ms4 Unagiyutaka2(J14w, 1.98 wins)
    Gusoyama(Ms15w, 11.21 wins) Ms5 Akiseyama♥️(Ms5w, kosho)
    Zannah(Ms7w, 6.99 wins) Ms6 Furanohana(Ms2w, 3.85 wins)
    Kōrinokoishi(Ms4e, 4.16 wins) Ms7 BlackPinkMawashi(Ms8e, 6.1 wins)
    Gaanaa(J11e, kyujo) Ms8 Doreikishi(Ms14w, 8.82 wins)
    Kyodaitimu(Ms9e, 5.62 wins) Ms9 Netsuzakura(Ms14e, 7.72 wins)
    Randomaru(Ms10e, kosho) Ms10 Kishikaisei(Ms8w, 4.69 wins)
    Andrasoyamawaka(J14e, kyujo) Ms11 Marushiki(Ms17w, 8.48 wins)
    Harmony(Ms1w, kyujo) Ms12 Kashunowaka(Ms12e, 4.8 wins)
    Mmikasazuma(Ms13e, kosho) Ms13 Seki Haruaki(Ms10w, 3.23 wins)
    Taliesin(Ms19w, 8.01 wins) Ms14 Shimodahito(Ms16e, 5.51 wins)
    Veshana(Ms11e, 0.81 wins) Ms15 Suwihuto(Ms11w, 0 wins)
    Shiroikumo(Ms7e, kyujo) Ms16 Beeftank(Ms20w, 6.43 wins)
    BeastlyWhale(Ms17e, kosho) Ms17 Stusan(Ms19e, 5.42 wins)
    Glacier(Ms18w, kosho) Ms18 Mitoryu♥️(Ms20e, kosho)
         
    The Chosen One(Ms9w, kyujo) Bg  
    Sanjuroku(Ms12w, kyujo) Bg  
    Sukubidubidu(Ms15e, kyujo) Bg  
    Tsuchinoninjin(Ms18e, kyujo) Bg  
    • Thanks 5

  13. Top score: 1441

    Makuuchi Median = 1234.5 - step size = 27.5333...

     

    Player Score Wins
    Konosato 1441 15
    Balon 1369 12.38
    Kaito 1348 11.62
    Gaijingai 1348 11.62
    Frinkanohana 1342 11.4
    Pandaazuma 1339 11.3
    Andoreasu 1335 11.15
    Athenayama 1314 10.39
    Unkonoyama 1305 10.06
    Sakura 1300 9.88
    Bill 1299 9.84
    Chankoyama 1294 9.66
    Asashosakari 1292 9.59
    Oyama 1280 9.15
    Saruyama 1275 8.97
    Kyoju 1275 8.97
    Oskahanada 1260 8.43
    Golynohana 1259 8.39
    Torafujii 1251 8.1
    Taka 1218 6.9
    Chishafuwaku 1213 6.72
    Ganzohnesushi 1213 6.72
    Oshirokita 1213 6.72
    Kutoyama 1211 6.65
    Flohru 1205 6.43
    GONZABUROW 1190 5.88
    Anjoboshi 1187 5.77
    Kotononami 1181 5.56
    Terarno 1158 4.72
    Asapedroryu 1144 4.21
    Choshu-Yuki 1138 4
    Kuroimori 1128 3.63
    Kitakachiyama 1108 2.91
    Norizo 1095 2.43
    Nantonoyama 1071 1.56
    Ruziklao 1032 0.15
    Mariohana 1017 0
    Hironoumi 1009 0

     

    Juryo median = 1218 - step size = 29.7333...

    Player Score Wins
    ScreechingOwl 1367 12.51
    Oortael 1356 12.14
    Joaoiyama 1356 12.14
    Kajiyanosho 1356 12.14
    Ketsukai 1342 11.67
    Kintamayama 1303 10.36
    Gansekiiwa 1277 9.48
    KazeJihi 1259 8.88
    Yarimotsu 1256 8.78
    Rowitoro 1243 8.34
    Profomisakari 1220 7.57
    Takanorappa 1216 7.43
    Reijinguoshan 1210 7.23
    Jejima 1206 7.1
    Next-ozeki-ura 1187 6.46
    Fujisan 1157 5.45
    Shatsume 1139 4.84
    Achiyama 1139 4.84
    Arawaka 1103 3.63
    Metzinowaka 1099 3.5
    Hagamachikuni 1065 2.35
    Unagiyutaka2 1054 1.98

     

    Makushita median = 1174 - step size = 35.6

    Player Score Wins
    Hidenotora 1378 13.23
    Itchynotoe 1369 12.98
    Sherlockiama 1315 11.46
    Susanoo 1313 11.4
    Gusoyama 1306 11.21
    BariiHachiBenson 1296 10.93
    TochiYESshin 1295 10.9
    Hogashi 1295 10.9
    Chumsinomaru 1280 10.48
    Doreikishi 1221 8.82
    Marushiki 1209 8.48
    Taliesin 1192 8.01
    WAKATAKE 1192 8.01
    Netsuzakura 1182 7.72
    Wamahada 1166 7.28
    Zannah 1156 6.99
    Beeftank 1136 6.43
    BlackPinkMawashi 1124 6.1
    Kyodaitimu 1107 5.62
    Shimodahito 1103 5.51
    Stusan 1100 5.42
    Kashunowaka 1078 4.8
    Kishikaisei 1074 4.69
    Kōrinokoishi 1055 4.16
    Furanohana 1044 3.85
    Seki Haruaki 1022 3.23
    Veshana 936 0.81
    Suwihuto 906 0
    • Thanks 1

  14. 58 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

    Agreed, but I was under the impression that double-digit wins was almost a prerequisite for consideration...

    Well, it's almost certainly necessary for the kanto-sho, but for the other two it's not really.  There have been plenty of gino-sho given for impressive technical skill but with only 9 wins, or possibly even 8.  Myogiryu got 3 gino-sho early in his career with 9, 9, and 8 wins.  (He then got a 4th with 10 wins and a 5th and 6th with 11.)  Other times include Wakatakakage in Natsu 2021, Midorifuji in his debut in Haru 2021, Enho in Nagoya 2019, and I'm sure there are plenty of others.  The shukun-sho also regularly (in the past at least) goes/went to rikishi with only a bare KK, so long as they are the best-performing rikishi below Ozeki to have beaten a Yokozuna who finished with double digit wins. 

    • Thanks 1

  15. 39 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

    Mainichi Newspapers presented a sample championship portrait with Ichi in one of his debut keshomawashi.  That suggests to me that they weren't expecting an Ichinojo yusho, and dug up an old file photo for the occasion ... rather last minute. 

    Will the final portrait match the sample awarded today, or can Mainichi update the photo?  That's something I've never kept track of.

    From what I recall, they always have a mocked up yusho portrait ready to go immediately for the winner, based on a previous official photograph.  They'll eventually get a new one made specifically for the actual yusho portrait.


  16. 11 minutes ago, sumoforever said:

    Re no Gino-sho winner, wonder whether Tobizaru could have won that prize if 1) he'd not had to sit out the last three days due to covid withdrawal, and 2) he'd been able to win 2 of the last 3 bouts to get to double digits. Winning his first eight bouts by different kimarite is really impressive.

    Number of different kimarite has absolutely nothing to do with the Gino-Sho.  It should be called the "Technical" Prize, not the "Technique" Price.  Unfortunately since they also translated "kimarite" as "winning technique", they created a false equivalence.  "Kimarite" is more literally translated as "deciding hand", or less literally "winning move".

    • Like 1

  17.  

    Gino-sho: none

    Kanto-Sho: Nishikifuji if he wins (1st)

    Shukun-Sho: Ichinojo (3rd)

    It looks like you have to read the actual piece of paper in teh picture to get the names of the rikishi winning (or nominated for) sansho rather than them being in the tweet as text.  They did update the main website too though, so that was easier for me.  I referred back to the piece of paper for the condition for Nishikifuji, though it's not like there would be anything else other than winning.

    • Like 1

  18. 4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

    The core problem with demoting any ozeki after an 8-7 would be with the public.

    At least in my scenario that I mentioned Mitakeumi might be required to get 9 wins to clear kadoban, I meant that an 8-7 would not be a demotion or clear kadoban, but leave him as a kadoban Ozeki for Kyushu.  I'm not sure what the person who repeated it in this thread meant, but that's what I intended when I suggested it last week. 


  19. 5 hours ago, Reonito said:

    It seems like those withdrawing far enough in advance that they're not listed a subsequent torikumi are not awarded a fusenpai? E.g. Oshoma was pulled after his bout on Day 8, when he was 5-3, in time to redo the Day 9 torikumi on which he does not appear, and his official record is listed as 5-3 with 7 absences. More examples in the lower divisions. This seems like it introduces an extra complication into the question of how they will treat the COVID-kyujo records for banzuke-making purposes.

    It's pretty normal (or I guess, happens a great deal, though not always) for people to withdraw after their matches but before the schedules are drawn up for their next matches for any division other than Makuuchi.  It happens a lot in the lower divisions where you might fight the first day and get injured, and know you need to withdraw even before the second day of the round starts, but it's even possible for Juryo if you manage to get the withdrawal in quick enough before the next matches are drawn up.  At least, I'm pretty sure they don't do teh Juryo matches until after all the results are in, which means there has to be at least a small amount of time in which it's possible.


  20. 6 minutes ago, Kamitsuumi said:

    That's not exactly correct since each "try" (i.e. streak of one side winning, or RNG flips for 1/256) take up a different number of bouts (up to 9). By my calculation (by that I mean my python script) it's about 26.3% for 150 bouts.

    I didn't think it would be correct, but it's more or less the right order of magnitude

    • Haha 1

  21. There are very roughly 150 torikumi per day.  The probability of getting 9 in a row on the same side, not caring which side, is one in 2^8, which is only 256.  Getting 9 in a row at some point during the day should happen roughly every other day.

    • Like 1

  22. I plan on not entering GTB.  I will update RotoSumo's banzuke on Sunday as usual, and then ignore sumo until the next tournament, whenever that is.  If I didn't have the the responsibility for RotoSumo I wouldn't even bother seeing how it ends.  It's just a complete mess that is better left ignored, IMO.

    • Like 1
    • Sad 1