Gurowake

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Everything posted by Gurowake

  1. Gurowake

    Mitakeumi Ozeki Promotion

    I distinctly remember watching Kintamayama's digest, and he said before the Day 15 bout that it had been announced that Goeido would be promoted with a win.
  2. Gurowake

    Sumo ‘Ranfurly Shield’ for 2022

    Hokutofuji 10-11 -> Shodai 12 -> Onosho 13-
  3. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Juryo Yusho: Kotoshoho and Yago have the lead. Kotoshoho's opponent is Nishikifuji, who doesn't have much to fight for except a slightly higher ranking (and mochikyukin points), while Yago faces Nishikigi, who is in contention for promotion to Makuuchi. If both of those lose, then one-behind Tohakuryu, who as mentioned faces Tsurugisho up in Makuuchi, has a chance to turn the playoff into a tomoe-sen.
  4. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Juyro <-> Makushita Going down we have Asanoyama, Shiden, Chiyonoo, and Chiyoarashi. Coming up we have Atamifuji, Shimazuumi, Takakento, and Ryuden. On the bubble going down: Hiradoumi - J13e Kotoyusho, Hakuyozan - J14e Possibly going up: Kairyu - 3-3 Ms4e, faces Chiyoarashi Tochimaru - 4-3 Ms4w In general however, I would say that a 4-3 Ms4 (or the 6-1 Ms9 I didn't list) doesn't have much chance at dislodging someone with a minimally demotable record. Kairyu might get the nod with a win and a loss by one of the two worse-off bubble Juryo, but I wouldn't count on it, and he certainly wouldn't replace Hiradoumi if the latter was the only loser. Tochimaru lost his match up in Juryo that would have made him a reasonable candidate to push down someone minimally demotable, so I don't think he has a chance. Thus I'm of the opinion we probably only have 4 exchanges and Day 15 doesn't matter.
  5. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Makuuchi <-> Juryo We have two sure promotions in Kotoshoho and Kagayaki, and two sure demotions in Hidenoumi and Kaisei. Those not surely demoted, with the highest rank they could be headed to by the numbers: Oho - M17e Tsurugisho - M17w Ichiyamamoto - M19w Promotion contenders, with lowest rank they could be headed to by the numbers Nishikigi - J1e Kotokuzan - J1w Tohakuryu - J3e Kaisho, Daiamami - J4e There is one match between these: Tohakuryu-Tsurugisho. It's possible this isn't an exchange match as Nishikigi, Kotokuzan, and Oho could all win, and the two extra slots go to the first two of those while Oho survives. Tohakuryu still might not get that spot since he's so low ranked, but I would think being given an exchange match in the lower half of the division bodes well for his chances. Kaisho and Daiamami are almost certainly out of contention since a third spot only opens up if Tohakuryu wins and they are always behind the first two candidates. Ichiyamamoto needs a win to survive, since even if Oho and Tsurugisho lose, Nishikigi, Kotokuzan (even if they lose) and Tohakuryu (who would beat Tsurugisho) would all have strong enough records to replace him. He still probably doesn't survive with a win, as either Nishikigi or Kotokuzan winning should be enough to take his spot, though an Oho loss and only one of Kishikigi and Kotokuzan winning would complicate things, since Oho may need to be demoted regardless of numbers since his rank is likely to disappear. This could mean anyone with worse numbers might also be demoted, or it could mean that Ichiyamamoto gets good banzuke luck.
  6. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Sanyaku: The number of slots is still in the air with Takanosho still failing to secure a 7th win (4 straight losses) and MItaekumi looking reasonable but not certain for Ozeki promotion. Wakatakakage as a KK top-ranked maegashira has one slot guaranteed. The race for the remaining 1-3 slots is between: Abi - M(1)w Onosho - M0e Hoshoryu - M1e Tamawashi - M2e Ura - M3e None of these 5 fight each other, though there is Onosho vs. Wakatakakage which has Sekiwake implications for each. One thing to consider is how ties and other close calls might be settled. Abi has a weaker schedule than Onosho, and so might end up behind Onosho even if they both have the same result. The same is true with Tamwashi if he wins and Abi loses. Tamawashi and Onosho being tied I have no idea about; there's nothing to suggest one way or the other. If Ura ties with Hoshoryu, Ura will probably get the nod for the harder schedule, but he's probably too far behind Abi to have that schedule be enough to get past him.
  7. Gurowake

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - January 2022 edition

    I forgot to send good vibes to Hokutofuji the last two days and not only was I wrong, but Hokutofuji lost. I sense a pattern. 15. Myogiryu
  8. Gurowake

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - January 2022 edition

    And in the end, this was totally irrelevant to who Hokutofuji fought, because Mitakeumi vs. Takanosho didn't happen. They could have had Mitakeumi vs. Kotonowaka and Takanosho vs. Hokutofuji with the rest rearranged. Now you could argue that if they weren't doing Mitakeumi vs. Takanosho then they both would be sent down the banzuke, but I don't see any reason to believe that in particular. It seems to me the reason Hokutofuji didn't face Takanosho is they wanted more sanyaku fighting maegashira still in contention at the time of the pairings, not because they postponed Mitakeumi-Terunofuji. It obviously doesn't matter why you're right, but it obviously bugs me when people (including myself) end up being right for the wrong reasons.
  9. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Was Takarafuji out of the race before the bouts? If Terunofuji lost, then the winner of Mitakeumi-Abi vs. Terunofuji would not guarantee someone at 12 wins. They're quite clearly paranoid about maegashira outside the joi winning without being tested against the sanyaku, especially after the losses of both leaders Day 12. Enough that the scheduled matches between sanyaku simply don't matter - only the Yusho race does. They've definitely totally shifted to Bench Sumo thinking. Now with Terunofuji winning, we're guaranteed 12 wins for either him or Mitakeumi (after he beat Abi) unless they decide for some reason to not do Terunofuji-Mitakeumi Day 15, which puts all the 9 win people out of the race, but that wasn't the case when the matchups were decided.
  10. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Juryo Yusho: Only Kotoshoho was victorious among the leaders, though his opponent was one of the other leaders, Tohakuryu. Yago failed to keep pace against Churanoumi. Since there was no one at 1 behind yesterday, those two falling off the pace are the only ones one-behind today. They're putting Yago up against the leader, while Tohakuryu faces Kagayaki who I guess is the next best opponent as one of those 2 off the pace. Kotokuzan is the only other remaining rikishi at 2 behind, and he faces someone who definitely is not in his heya, Kotoyusho, who is at 6-6 and needs one more wins to stay assured of a place in Juryo. Note Kotokuzan is likewise definitely not in Kotoshoho's heya, and they met on Day 4.
  11. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Lower division yusho: No action, but we know what they're going with in terms of Yusho deciders: Makushita is indeed a straight fight for the Yusho between Ryuden and Nishikawa. Sandanme will have at least one 7-0 between Osanai and Chiyodaigo, while Mukainakano is up against 5-1 Sd59 Miyagi, who's been mentioned in this thread before. Jonidan thus has the expected straight fight for the Yusho between Asahanshin and Kawamura. The 6-0 Jk rikishi, Nakashima, actually faces a 5-1 from Jk as well, Nishikimaru, who has more motivation than a random 5-1 from lower Jonidan to win. Of course, with a 38-72 lifetime record, i doubt he'll put up much of a fight.
  12. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Day 12 update to sanyaku promotion race: Abi - M1w Wakatakakage, Tamawashi, Onosho - M4e Ura, Hoshoryu - M5e Ichinojo - M5w Kiribayama, Takarafuji - M6w Endo - M8w Hokutofuji - M9w Abi has a large enough lead that he will continue to lead tomorrow, but can still be overtaken over 3 days by enough rikishi to not make him a lock for promotion.
  13. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    I bet the banzuke committee are ruing their decision to not promote Abi high enough to face all the sanyaku. If it was for "punishment", they had the exact wrong idea.
  14. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    It's possible that they plain don't demote an Ozeki if there's no one coming up to make two of them. I don't know how they'd treat them going forward, but that's generally how they handle cases where no one is worthy of a rank/division and there normally would be a demotion. That might only be used as a last resort when there's no KK Sekiwake though. And obviously I'm just guessing, because this is uncharted territory. I hope they at least have some protocol written up and aren't going to have to make it up as they go along. I also might imagine them saying bollocks to the "rule" there has to be two Ozeki, and fill the sanyaku out to 3 on each side with additional lower sanyaku (if not already present). Who said the "three ranks" need to all have different titles?
  15. Gurowake

    Sumo Ranfurly Shield History

    I've checked the work of all the other contributors, as well as all my own work at least a day later; I encourage others to check my work. I'll check the 2021 stuff tomorrow myself just to be more sure.
  16. Gurowake

    Sumo Ranfurly Shield History

    2021 Hatsu S Terunofuji -> M3 Onosho (2) -> O Asanoyama (4) -> M2 Takarafuji (6) -> M3 Onosho (8) -> K Mitakeumi (10) -> M5 Endo (14) -> Day 15 Haru M5 Endo -> M4 Myogiryu (1) -> M2 Hokutofuji (6) -> M3 Shimanoumi (8) -> O Asanoyama (9) -> O Takakeisho (13) -> S Terunofuji (15) Natsu O Terunofuji -> M4 Myogiryu (11) -> M3 Aoiyama (12) -> M10 Terutsuyoshi (15) Nagoya M10 Terutsuyoshi -> M9 Shimanoumi (2) -> M11 Kaisei (3) -> M13 Chiyomaru (5) -> M14 Daiamami (6) -> M17 Ichiyamamoto (7) -> M11 Kotonowaka (10) -> M9 Shimanoumi (11) -> M16 Ishiura (13) -> M7 Chiyoshoma (14) -> M13 Ura (15) Aki M6 Ura -> M5 Takarafuji (1) -> M6 Onosho (2) -> M7 Terutsuyoshi (4) -> M7 Shimanoumi (5) -> M10 Chiyotairyu (6) -> M8 Okinoumi (8) -> M10 Myogiryu (10) -> M13 Kagayaki (12) -> M12 Tochinoshin (13) -> M2 Kiribayama (14) -> Day 15 Kyushu K Kiribayama -> Y Terunofuji (1) -> Day 15. Despite it looking really sketchy in terms of likelihood of making its way back up the joi, the shield managed to snag a ride there at nearly the last minute to be pushed into Terunofuji's hands at the beginning of last basho and stay there until the end.
  17. Gurowake

    Sumo Ranfurly Shield History

    There are quite a lot of playoffs that were skipped over. The line could be different in many places if they were included. My feeling was similar to Eikokurai that playoffs are not really Ozumo matches, because they don't count for anything except the prize money (and mochikyukin points if in Makuuchi). They don't get counted in the kimarite stats, they aren't included on the official records, they aren't included in the totals for rikishi on the database except as an addendum for the head-to-head matchups. Fusen do get counted in all those ways, and are shown in the main bulk of head-to-head records, even if they're also shown as a subtraction to get to the "real" HTH data that's more predictive than the raw numbers. There were a few days over the past weeks I've been working on this that playoffs were included, but all that should have been scrubbed by now.
  18. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    I've never read the source material, but I like the idiom.
  19. Gurowake

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - January 2022 edition

    How do people feel about Mitakeumi-Takanosho on Day 14 with Mitakeumi-Terunoofuji on Day 15? Shodai and Takanosho get maegashira for the soroibumi instead of the expected Meisei-Daiesho (which still happens on Day 15, but is just the 4th-to-last match). Shodai-Terunofuji probably also gets skipped for Terunofui-Abi on Day 14 and give Shodai a better chance at a KK (though he'll probably have lost it by then anyway). 13. Kiribayama
  20. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Lower division yusho races: Ryuden gets the expected win and will probably face off against the other 6-0 from Makushita who beat his Sandanme opponent, Ms35 Nishikawa. With Ryuden having already clinched Juryo promotion, I don't see a good reason to put him up into Juryo and potentially causing a big 6-1 Makushita playoff In Sandanme, Osanai, Chiyodaigo, and Mukainakano picked up wins, with the last being a bit of a surprise to me. I don't recall hearing anything about him coming in, but he's put up a good start for a 19 year old, including a win over someone who should be ranked much higher, Inoue. The top Jonidan 6-0, Asahanshin, is probably high enough ranked to warrant putting against Mukainakano. On the other hand, there's only one other undefeated Jonidan rikishi, Kawamura. On the gripping hand, there's just one undefeated Jonokuchi rikishi, Nakashima, after a loss by Aoifuji. If they pair down the line, they wouldn't have anyone undefeated face someone with a loss, but it opens up the chance that there's a Jonidan playoff at 6-1, which would have a lot of rikishi. To prevent this they'll probably put the Jonidan guys against each other, with Mukainakano and Nakashima against someone a bit higher ranked with one loss. I'd also like to point out Mukainakano is really hard to type, with basically no pattern of letters that's typically used in shiknoa.
  21. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Juryo yusho race: A loss by Yago and wins by the two followers put 3 rikishi tied for the Juryo lead at 9-2, while there is no one at a single win behind. Yago is lobbed a softball with the MK J9 Churanoumi, while they've already decided to schedule the other two leading rikishi, Tohakuyru and Kotoshoho, against each other for Day 12. Of those two wins behind, Kagayaki is being sent up to Makuuchi, Kotokuzan faces 5-6 J7 Daishoho, Asanowaka faces demotion-bound Chiyoarashi, Nishikifuji faces 6-5 J5 Azumaryu, and Kitanowaka faces 5-6 J2 Nishikigi.
  22. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Here's a list of sanyaku candidates by order they would go in, with the placement being where they're headed to by the numbers if they win no more matches. One win will put them up 2 projected ranks. Abi - M3w Tamawashi - M4e Wakatakakage, Onosho, - M6e Kiribayama, Takarafuji - M6w Ura , Hoshoryu- M7e Ichinojo - M7w Hokutofuji - M9w Endo - M10w After that it doesn't seem plausible. (Sadanoumi - M12e, Chiyoshoma - M12w, Kotonowaka - M13e still have tiny chances if enough spots open up and they win out) Since there's no one even within one win of "deserving" a sanyaku spot right now, it's still somewhat plausible to not demote Daieisho if he wins out, though I don't think there's ever been a case of that. What's more frequent is not demoting a 7-8 on the east side, and generally you would need a score that's good enough for promotion to take the west spot over a 7-8 east side Komusubi, so Meisei could easily hang on with a 7-8 here unless enough people step up and get good records.
  23. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Wakamotoharu is already safe by-the-numbers. Putting numbers on Makushita rikishi is kinda hard, because there are much loose rules for determining who is promotable. It's obviously an issue for other promotions as well, but there's no "one win over loss equals one rank" kinda of thing like there is for sekitori, which makes it not necessarily obvious how to compare records and to determine what exactly a minimally demotable rikishi will be replaced for. The deep 4-1s in Makushita might even get in without 2 wins simply because they're needed and are the best available.
  24. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Thank you. It bugged me after I went to bed that I wasn't really sure I had the right name for the thread, but I wasn't going to get out of bed to check it.