Gurowake

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Everything posted by Gurowake

  1. Gurowake

    Career high statistics

    So I figured out a fast way of inserting all those fiddly table elements using excel, so I might start posting a bunch of stuff I consider interesting in a tabular format. We'll start with something I wondered about after seeing on old banzuke in the DB with career high rank displayed: what percent of rikishi eventually manage each rank? So, here is a list of all the career high ranks for all rikishi who hit career highs in 1958 (when the 6-basho system was started) or later. While not an absolutely perfect way of picking up all people from a certain time forward, it's reasonable. Column 1: Career high rank. Column 2: Number of rikishi that had that career high rank. Column 3: Number of rikishi that had a higher career high rank (that is, they were promoted out of this rank) Column 4: % of rikishi making this rank to be promoted eventually. Column 5: % of rikishi considered that have this career high rank. Column 6: % of rikishi that made with this career rank or higher. # # higher % promoted % total cum % Yokozuna 27 0.34% 0.34% Ozeki 31 27 46.55% 0.39% 0.74% Sekiwake 71 58 44.96% 0.90% 1.64% Komusubi 72 129 64.18% 0.91% 2.55% Maegashira 239 201 45.68% 3.03% 5.59% Juryo 261 440 62.77% 3.31% 8.90% Makushita 1553 701 31.10% 19.72% 28.62% Sandanme 1929 2254 53.88% 24.49% 53.11% Jonidan 2581 4183 61.84% 32.77% 85.88% Jonokuchi 1112 6764 85.88% 14.12% 100.00% Total 7876
  2. Gurowake

    Rikishi Career Income

    That's like counting an accountant's hours by how long it takes him to fill in the data on your tax return and not counting all the research into tax law and pouring over the records of your business that went into coming up with all the figures for it. There's no way you can be in the ring without doing the work outside of it.
  3. Gurowake

    Making tables easily

    Thanks for the replies. With how many tables some people seem to make I thought there was a simple converter, but I guess if you have a template that saves a lot of work.
  4. Gurowake

    Making tables easily

    I see lots of people that make the semi-pretty tables that are offered here, and have made one myself (on Kinboshi stats) but did so manually editing in every single bit of code (mostly copy/pasting but still a lot of work) in order to get it to display properly with rows and columns aligned correctly and such. I'm guessing there's some sort of easier way to input all the data and some sort of tool available that will add in all the necessary code, but I can't seem to find anything. It's quite likely that there's some overall tool that I'm just not familiar with, but I really don't know much about forum software. I can paste something in from Excel and have it look pretty in my edit box, but that nice formatting doesn't carry over to the actual post.
  5. Gurowake

    A Question to the rules off Odd Sumo

    I really don't care if it's changed or not; it's perfectly fair and good enough for its purpose. Asking it to be more realistic in its odds may make the game too serious and too complicated to be worth managing. My issues are more academic and theoretic in nature; I have a nasty habit of dragging my education around whatever hobbies I take up. I probably should just leave this alone.
  6. Gurowake

    A Question to the rules off Odd Sumo

    Oh, I like the strategy the way it is. If it's thought that the way it's set up is totally fine and there are no problems, I have no personal complaints. The game just feels like the odds are set arbitrarily low compared to how they'd be set by an actual sports book. Regardless, what's the reason behind making it so hard to come out with a profit that one needs an additional rule to force people to wager? If the players' actual EV were to become very slightly positive but odds-negative (that is, players would be able to use knowledge not reflected in the odds to profit even though they would lose if the odds were precisely proportionate to the true likelihoods) as would likely happen if the implied vig was set at a reasonable value, the rule wouldn't be needed. (I also have significant issues with the odds calculation method as well, but that would require me doing a significant amount of research to give exact opinions of what's wrong. It may be the case that the method of odds computation is fundamentally based on historical data that gets updated each basho, but from what I recall seeing of it, it seemed pretty arbitrary in comparison. I am not in favor of changing the method personally, I am just concerned that the odds calculation is not particularly accurate. But maybe that's what makes the game interesting and trying to fix it would only make the game less enjoyable. ::shrug::)
  7. Gurowake

    A Question to the rules off Odd Sumo

    If you want to talk about changing the rules of this game, how about giving more reasonable odds instead of ones that make people want to not spend their points? On an even matchup I get a 1.5 multiplier. Supposing I were allowed to only pick one match-up, I would have to win every 2 out of 3 to break even. The fact you have to pick 3 is irrelevant to how the odds work; 3 choices of 1.5 picks would lead to needing to win about 3 out of 10 times, which corresponds to winning 2 out of 3 bouts. If this were real money I were betting, I would get away very very fast; most vig on sports betting is around 10% I think, meaning you need to be right about 6 times out of 11 on a nominal even match-up. Playing the minimum number to get qualified for scoring is a very obvious strategy apparent to anyone oblivious to how the odds work just by looking at old results and seeing pretty much everyone not recouping what they bet. If you just changed the even match-ups to have a multiplier of 2 and basically left everything else the same, there would no longer be any incentive to not play. Given that the way the odds are calculated are often not really in line with the expectations of a match, people should generally be able to have positive expected value this way and as such should be playing as much as possible. Maybe, maybe, maybe tune it to 1.95 or 1.9 to provide a more reasonable expectation of loss as would be traditional in sports betting, but given the nature of the game I don't see any reason why that's necessary. Additionally, if you want to maintain the current terrible odds, for people that don't wager enough credits at least you could just subtract the additional amount of credits that would need to be wagered, assuming they lost whatever bets they would have placed. That would be a fair and reasonable representation of how they would have done, at worst.
  8. So I check Wikipedia's main page for news from around the world quite a lot, and one of the things mentioned there was Kakuryu's recent promotion to yokozuna. Not knowing much about sumo, I decided to read exactly what that meant and why Wikipedia's front page was reporting on it, and after reading about the entire ranking system I was pretty much hooked. I spent quite a while just reading over old banzuke to watch the typical progressions of people up the ranks, not bothering to watch any matches because I didn't really know if they were actually all that interesting. Eventually I did decide to watch some of the matches from the high ranked guys, and I was quite impressed with how the top level matches tended to play out. I might just lose interest after the coming basho as my attention does tend to wander when there's nothing to do, but I've been heavily anticipating watching the basho day-by-day not knowing what's going to happen as opposed to watching everything that's happened well in the past. Major thanks to Kintamayama for his digests of Makuuchi bouts from the last few years.
  9. Could you elaborate on this? Not having attended an actual basho and only having watched the Kintamayama recaps or araibira individual bouts, I wouldn't know this, but you seem to imply with this that the Yokozuna Dohyo-iri always occur right before the third-to-last match of the day. This doesn't seem impossible to me (and I'm guessing it would change if they had 4 Yokozuna), but it seems a little weird. I had assumed it always was right after the Makuuchi dohyo-iri. I've also assumed the entire dohyo-iri, both normal and Yokozuna, happens every day of the basho, but I'm uncertain on this point.
  10. Gurowake

    Natsu 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

    Yes, I'm sure absolutely every single person in this forum feels exactly the way I do about the situation; feel free to lump me in with everyone else. And we all watch other sports, because who doesn't, right? I mean, every REAL MAN must watch sports, what else could you possibly do on your time off? It's the most important thing ever! News Flash: I don't watch other sports (unless there happens to be a TV on in a room I'm in for other reasons). I will gladly be labeled with whatever pejorative moniker you want to throw at me, I really don't care. Does my opinion suddenly not count anymore just because the only sporting league I follow is Ozumo? Couldn't one say that because you follow other sports your opinion about sumo is irrelevant? (As an aside, I find the fact that I am "fanatically" following sumo hilarious in light of how I find other people's obsessiveness about certain other sports; I still think they're borderline idiots for thinking that the performance of the team whose home games are closest to their present domicile (or a previous one) are of any importance to their life. And following sumo for me is more about looking for all sorts of neat patterns in the data; the whole watching aspect is totally secondary.) You totally missed the point of the comment about merchandise. Of course LeBron doesn't really care about the sales of his memorabilia; his share of the profits are probably only a tiny fraction of his total earnings (I really don't know; regardless, he's an athlete, not a businessman). But his team (I have no idea who he plays for, go ahead and mock me) is going to milk it for all they can, because that's what they're in the business of doing. And that's what the Yokozuna rank is like for Sumo. It's an attempt to market the sport more by giving extra recognition to top performers, giving them more both respect and money. It's not like the Hall of Fame, where you only get recognition after your career is over and induction will have little bearing on current ticket sales; promotions or hopes of promotions to Yokozuna are part of what keeps fans interested in current events. If you as a sporting organization flagrantly violate guidelines you set down yourself in respects to other people, people will find you no longer a legitimate sport. There's enough whispering of win-trading or other match-fixing still that make some people who Talk about Sumo leery; the NSK needs to do everything it can to show itself as a legitimate sporting organization. And sure, if I ever get to a competitive venture with you in which the outcome has no bearing on anything except pride, I will gladly let you win. You can take your fake meaningless pride and feel ashamed that you didn't really earn it. I will pretend to be duly humbled by your hard-driven commitment to excellence that I save for endeavors with actual importance. Feel free to leave another comment in which you passively imply that my opinion doesn't matter because it's not the same as yours.
  11. Gurowake

    Natsu 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

    Your professional team sports analogy is totally worthless. Maybe if you focused on an individual sport, or talked about hall-of-famers in some respect you might have merit along those lines. But the situations are radically different and regardless, are the runners-up going to stop selling their merchandise just because they only managed second? No, they're still going to sell stuff with "Conference Champion" on it. Now, the real problem is that he was never strong as an Ozeki outside of those two tournaments. His best previous performance was his last tournament at Sekiwake. I totally have a problem with them promoting him on the basis of 2 strong tournaments when his past showed that he wasn't particularly strong in comparison with the recent field. But just because his two 14-1s didn't both win the tournament? I disagree with that argument on the basis that it shows dependance on the results of other matches. I would focus more on how the Yokozuna promotion guidelines cover less tournaments than the Ozeki guidelines; I much rather would require a rikishi to have 48 wins over 4 tournaments than whatever number happens to be required to win two straight basho.
  12. Gurowake

    Sansho Natsu 2014 (Spezial Prize Winners)

    Silly Conspiracy Theory: Goeido is intentionally not getting promoted to Ozeki so he can win one of the Sansho every tournament, receiving more money overall than if he was Ozeki.
  13. Gurowake

    Kensho for Natsu 2014

    As long as that means Endo gets to outrank the 2 Sekiwake, sure.
  14. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2014

    Was there a compelling reason to promote Sadanoumi and demote Azumaryu last time? In that case they might have just been stupid, looked at his record, didn't see a 17e yet and decided to demote him regardless of who it meant promoting and the fact that there was going to be a 17e, but especially after having these reports it sounds like they know more about what they're doing than to have done that. I can definitely understand if they swap these two, taking the view that the 17e slot shouldn't really be available and they'll give it to someone in Juryo ahead of someone being demoted onto it.
  15. Gurowake

    Turn The Tide - Banzuke Natsu 2014

    Wow, thank you very much! I'm quite surprised in general with my 4 top 10 finishes in SB games (also Odd, ISP, Roto), although they are definitely counterbalanced with a lot of awful performances, particularly in pre-basho games. I look forward to July!
  16. Gurowake

    Games Bugs

    There's clearly some issue with the database in receiving certain bout results that it doesn't necessarily post those results all the places it should. Database queries for sekiwakes with 6 wins returns Goeido's current performance, but bout queries pick up his Day 14 bout just fine. There's some disconnect between the two data sets that is causing strange things. Not knowing anything about how the database is organized, I can't begin to understand why it's happening.
  17. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2014

    I really don't think the guys in charge really want to give Goeido yet another pass at demotion with an MK; they may not wanted to have the second time it happened, but in that case there wasn't anything even resembling a viable candidate. The first time his 7 wins came with only 6 losses in the ring, so without someone who was by-the-numbers promotable in that basho it was reasonable to let him keep it even if there were somewhat reasonable candidates, although even in that case they were much worse than the ones we already have now. Looking at the last time a Sekiwake before Goeido kept their rank with 7 wins, we have Tochizauma in Kyushu 1997. That tournament had all sanyaku with MKs even with 3 Sekiwake; the other two had 5 and 6 wins and clearly needed demotion. The best candidates were 8-7 at m3w and m4e, and 11-4 at m6e, the last one of those getting the definitely free Sekiwake slot and the former two became Komusubi. Then in Natsu 1997, we had a 7-5-3 Kaio at S1e demoted in favor of a 8-7 from m1e, while 11-4 from m5w grabbed Komusubi as the next best record. So that suggests that Aoiyama winning would be eligible for the slot, although it's inconclusive whether Ikioi might get it with a loss. Looking back to every other instance since 1980 there's nothing conclusive; in most cases there's a clear viable candidate and in one other case that the 7-8 Sekiwake got to stay there's clearly nobody worthy of it. So it's hard to say, and the people in charge have probably changed so much since any of those that they may have different ideas anyway. I think it's reasonable that 11 wins from m5 is good enough for Sekiwake, even if he did lose to the guy he's replacing. But that might just be the point the banzuke makers look to; if Ikioi couldn't beat either incumbent why should he get their place? I also think Aminishiki is reasonable even with 9 wins, and it wouldn't be his first time there. Aoiyama with 8 wins might also be reasonable given he beat both Ozeki. And then there's also the issue that if all these guys win, we might have 3 Komusubi. That'll be a real tester for GTB.
  18. While the situation suggests Shohozan, I can't win with him. But I hate the idea of tactical voting, and winning is less important than a good score, especially for one's first outing. If Adonishiki wants to challenge for the yusho with someone else, he can go ahead and do that. Day 15 - Shohozan
  19. Gurowake

    Natsu 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

    Goeido is probably not safe with a 7-8 this time; Ikioi looks reasonable for Sekiwake even with 2 more losses. Aoiyama and Aminishiki with one more win would also be somewhat reasonable to take his spot as well. Ikioi with one more win and the latter two with 2 would without a doubt be worthy for the spot. It's fairly rare in general for Sekiwake East to keep their rank with 7 wins; while it's happened 5 times since 1960 they've lost it 25 times; Goeido has just gotten extremely lucky before with no one being a viable candidate previously on two occasions. Now that Tochiozan has 8 wins, there only needs to be one candidate and it's pretty likely someone will take it. edit: The best available records for the times Goeido got lucky were 8-7 from m2 and 9-6 from m4 in Nagoya 2012, and in Natsu last year the closest were even worse: 8-7 from m5 and 10-5 from m8. Also, an 11 win promotion to Sekiwake from m5 has occurred before, although in that case both Sekiwake weren't going to be safe regardless.
  20. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2014

    Arawashi isn't 100% safe, but he's safe "by the numbers". His worst result possible is 7-8, dropping him a full rank to m17e. Unless we get an Ozeki promotion (not going to happen) or more than 2 of either junior sanyaku (seems unlikely), the rank will still exist. Tokitenku needs to avoid a 6-9 because it would drop him (again, by the numbers) 3 ranks to m17w, which doesn't exist now and would only exist if an Ozeki or Yokozuna retired. In either case it's possible that they could move them against the numbers in case of a need for more or less promotions from Juryo than available, but the charts above are just "by the numbers".
  21. Gurowake

    Sekitori Torikumi Day 13 Natsu Basho 2014

    Seeing Hakuho getting the last match despite there being a different match between Yokozuna is really odd, and from the looks of it that means that on day 14 Harumafuji will get last match also not fighting another Yokozuna, and that would seem to imply that the last match of the basho would be Kakuryu's against a non-Yokozuna, which would be all sorts of crazy. Looking back to when there were previously 3 Yokozuna, days 13 and 14 followed the same pattern as we have now, but on the last day they still had the top two ranked guys in the last match despite it being in theory the day that the 3rd ranked Yokozuna would get the last match. Given that the Yokozuna will be evenly distributed among the last matches the last 3 days, why don't they just break the pattern for all three days? It's really silly.
  22. Gurowake

    Natsu 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

    Osunaarashi typically comes in very high, and Endo typically stays rather low; the Egyptian either lucked into the right sort of move or figured out exactly what he needed to do to take advantage of how low Endo typically comes in. Instead of allowing your body to stop the guy coming in low, you hit him extremely hard in the upper body, creating a massive amount of torque from the body's low forward momentum combined with high backward movement that mean your legs are going to crumble out from under you. Endo just put too much into staying low and assuming that low = good.
  23. Gurowake

    Natsu 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

    As for Hakuho vs. Kisenosato, in my memory the latter seems to relish in the mind-game aspect of the tachi-ai and ends up participating on both ends of a matta far more often than anyone else does. Hakuho has a pretty much set routine, and with both mattas there was nothing that he did that should have indicated to Kisenosato that he was about to put his other hand down. Hakuho is normally pretty slow at putting that second hand down, but Kisenosato was just too anxious to start and get the jump on Hakuho, which is really a cheater's mind-set. I watched the replay carefully and every time Hakuho's left arm did not budge before Kisenosato started, or in the last case hesitated without going. There is no good reason besides trying to pre-empt the other rikishi that you should constantly be starting before the other guy even moves his second hand, and that shouldn't be a part of the sport.
  24. Gurowake

    Natsu 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

    I agree with Kintamayama in his video that while there likely was a hair pull by Goeido, Kakuryu was already on his way down. Yes, he pulled the hair before the yokozuna hit the clay, but it seemed evident in the replay that he was not going to be able to recover from the position he was in and the hair-pull had no effect on the outcome of the match. However. The fouls are there to prevent injury. It doesn't matter if your opponent is on the way down, you still can't punch him or kick him above the knee or box his ears or bend back his fingers or gouge hi eyes or whatever else I'm forgetting is illegal, because that stuff can be dangerous. An incidental hair-pull is not as dangerous as some of those, but it is still a foul. If a wrestler commits a foul during the match, they lose. Period. Nevertheless, I agree that most of the incidental stuff that gets called is really hard to avoid when trying a legitimate technique, as opposed to the others that you basically have to intentionally commit, and so perhaps they need to think about relaxing their judgments on when exactly a hair-pull is a foul. It is pretty ridiculous that someone can lose in the way Goeido did, but it's certainly the "correct" decision for how things stand currently. Maybe this will be a motivation to try to come up with a better standard for when incidental hair-pulls can be ignored. Edit: I would be surprised if other rikishi even bother to watch the matches before them instead of mentally preparing for their own fight. Hakuho though derives so much of his dominance to understanding the weakness of his opponents that it makes sense that he'd be watching them intently. As for conspiracy theories, (1) Goeido is nowhere close to becoming Ozeki; even if he could win his remaining matches (still doubful), he'd still need at least 11 wins (now 12) in Nagoya, and (2) the benefit to a Yokozuna for any win not in competition for the yusho is marginal (their running account gets a slight bump, but they already make plenty of money compared to that) and if that match ends up mattering for the Yusho, it would only be to Hakuho's detriment. He was just calling what he saw, and the judges had to make the final decision anyway; it's not like Hakuho himself called the foul.