Gurowake

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Everything posted by Gurowake

  1. Gurowake

    Rikishi Status - 2022 Natsu

    Judging from the history it'll be Sd22. Just high enough that a 7-0 should land him in the top 15 Makushita ranks, so he'll likely only need 2 basho before returning as sekitori if he's perfect. However, note that the most recent 7-0 from that area of Sandanme was not in the top 15 ranks of Makushita, and it also happened another time in the past, so it depends on banzuke luck and isn't a forced thing like certain division promotions. (Certain conspiracy-minded people might think the most recent occurrence was done to justify what they expected to do a few basho later to Asanoyama. He got roughly 2-3 ranks of banzuke luck while still a sekitori, making Sd25 probably the lowest possible place he'd end up, so it would be reasonable to expect he'd be in that area.)
  2. Gurowake

    Scheduling question

    Generally, there's a slow transition from matches based entirely on rank to matches (nearly) entirely based on record starting after day 8, thus for the matches scheduled for Day 10. If there are any matches scheduled before Day 10 based on record at all, they're not very common and might only seem to be based on record when in reality the records had nothing to do with it. The reason it happens at this point is that it's not possible to have MKs or KKs, and that informs two distinct scheduling patterns. First is that a low-ranked rikishi will generally not be brought up to a higher ranked opponent than normal until they have a KK. Second is that sanyaku rikishi who do not have MKs will generally not be matched up against maegashira who have MKs. Thus, as the tournament progresses, there are more matches that are generated due to a top-scoring rikishi, and more matches that are avoided due to low-scoring rikishi, which tends to mean more matches based on record as the second week progresses. The last couple days, and Day 15 in particular, the matches will be more affirmatively based on record with rank being only a sort of tiebreaker when deciding. On a different note, because it's somewhat important and not always obvious, the matches between the sanyaku rikishi are planned out so there is roughly the same number each day, though weighted towards the end of the tournament, with the days there need to be less such matches earlier on. They also plan on the last three matches of the tournament to be 5v6, 3v4, and 1v2 in ordinal number on the banzuke because of the soroibumi ceremony that takes place just before the last three matches. Quite often due to withdrawals they aren't actually able to do this, but that's what's planned from the start, and why the number of intrasanyaku matches on Day 3 this tournament will most likely be one instead of the two you'd otherwise expect when there are 28 possible matches to spread over 15 days, with less on the opening days. These matches are also planned so that in general the matches between the higher ranked rikishi are done later than those that are lower-ranked.
  3. Gurowake

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - May 2022 edition

    Day 4 looks to be the only interesting one week 1. 3. Hoshoryu
  4. Predict how many potential matches between sanyaku rikishi in Natsu 2022 will not be scheduled, other than those involving at least one rikishi who has left the tournament. I'm not going to get into trying to determine intent for why they are skipped, so I assume that if they're skipped it will be for the yusho race for the purposes of this poll and you can basically ignore the actual question that suggests that the yusho race needs to be the reason behind skipping a match. If a sanyaku rikishi leaves the tournament and rejoins, then none of his matches will be considered skipped for the purpose of this poll; typically in such situations the returning rikishi would not be given any remaining matches against other sanyaku in contention anyway, and trying to schedule them against other sanyaku not in contention may run into scheduling issues since the schedule had to evolve multiple times due to their withdrawal and return. If a match is on a released scheduled for a day and the schedule is then redone (due to a very late withdrawal) without including the match, the match does not count as scheduled for this poll. As a bonus, leave in the comments a prediction which matches will be skipped. I don't feel like making all 28 matches poll options in a second question. Note this poll will be open for most of the first week, so feel free to consider the state of the tournament at that point when making a decision.
  5. Gurowake

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - May 2022 edition

    1. Wakatakakage 2. Abi
  6. There was a long-running feature from Asashosakari with regard to rikishi who had certain combinations of low age and high rank that has been absent for a number of years now. For some time I have been keeping track of rikishi that meet the following criteria on each banzuke: Age lower than Rank at least 23 M3 22.5 M10 22 M17 21.5 J7 21 J14 20.5 ms15 20 ms30 19.5 ms45 19 ms60 18.5 sd25 18 sd50 17.5 sd75 17 sd100 16.5 Jd25 Originally I also tracked those not age 16 that were at least Jd50, though I stopped doing that when it was clear that hardly anyone ever met that criteria. Even the Jonidan criteria here is rarely indicative of much of anything, but there are at least a few people that meet that requirement. The M17 requirement is not supposed to exclude the possibility of an M18, but the numbers were arrived at before that was ever a thing. I don't think I'll begrudge counting an M18 under 22 in the M17 category. The numbers were picked relatively randomly, with an eye on excluding the vast majority of rikishi but still allowing for a dozen or so to show up for each banzuke. As you may have seen me mention in the past, being able to reach M3 by age 23 is a very good predictor of becoming an Ozeki, as well as a telling sign of failing to make Ozeki if the criteria could have been met but wasn't. I've used this criteria to suggest that Meisei and Takanosho, for example, while fairly young with KKs at Sekiwake, aren't particularly likely to go on to make Ozeki. If they were good enough, they would likely have gotten up to the top of Makuuchi a few years earlier than they did. Of course, since it's impossible for graduated collegiate competitors to make these numbers, collegiates who have made Ozeki are ignored, but it should be noted that Asanoyama and Shodai did reach the top of Makuuchi fairly quickly. Another that falls into this category in the time frame I've looked at would be Kotomitsuki; like Shodai, he didn't make Ozeki right away, but he did get to the top of Makuuchi quickly. Every single other Ozeki since Asashoryu has made the criteria, and the non-Ozeki exceptions are Tochiozan, Asasekiyru, most likely Chiyootori (obviously has had injuries and is not nearly on the same level as he was when he made Komusubi), "who knows what would have happened?" for Wakanoho and Osunaarashi, and "the jury's still out" for Ichinojo, Onosho, Kotoshoho, and Hoshoryu. Now certainly a lot more people have met the other criteria, but it's a start at trying to point out those that are likely to make it to the top by the requisite age. It should be noted that the previously-mentioned Meisei and Takanosho were well advanced on this scale back in 2013, and while they no longer look like Ozeki candidates, they are solid top division rikishi who look to be joi mainstays for years to come. Lots of future sekitori have featured on my lists from the past, though plenty of them in the lower ranks end up not really going anywhere. Still, it's a good start for knowing who to look at. I also include a notation for those who are at a tier above where they would need to be to make the list, denoted with a +X, where X is the number of tiers above the minimum for their age. I still consider there to be a tier at every 6 month period below 16.5 - I just don't look for those at lower ranks. Those that currently meet the criteria, with a bit of their history on this list, are: M10 tier: Hoshoryu has been on the list continuously since Hatsu 2019, when he was in the Ms30 tier. J14 Tier: Hokuseiho+2 has been on since Hatsu 2021 in the Ms15 tier. Ms15 Tier: Otsuji+4 has been on since Haru 2020 in the Sd100 tier. Atamifuji+2 has been on since Nagoya 2021 in the Ms60 tier. Oshoumi is a new addition. Ms30 Tier: Nabatame is a new addition. Ms45 Tier: Yoshii+2 has been on the list since Kyushu 2019 in the Sd75 tier. He's unfortunately kyujo this basho, though he'll likely stay on the list next basho since he's two tiers ahead now (assuming he doesn't retire). Sd50 Tier: Nishida+1 first appeared on the list in Hatsu 2021 in the Jd25 tier, and has been absent only in Natsu 2021 since then. Daihisho first appeared on the list in Hatsu 2021 in the Sd75 tier, and has been absent only in Nagoya 2021 since then. Sd100 Tier: Shunrai makes his second consecutive appearance, being in the Jd25 tier last basho. Jd25 Tier: Mizuno+1, Kiyonohana, and Mogamizakura are new additions. If anyone knows something about some of the less well-known guys on this list, feel free to post it here. All I'm looking at is banzuke position and age; in general, I don't know anything else about these guys, though I generally do look to see if there was a blurb about them in the recruits thread when they pop onto the list at a high position.
  7. Gurowake

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    I was just looking at Asashoryu's history of coming up the ranks, and he was Yokozuna in his 26th basho, while this basho is Hoshoryu's 26th as well. Hoshoryu is also a bit older than Asashoryu was at the time. So while obviously Hoshoryu is pretty good, Asashoryu was on an entirely different level.
  8. Simple concept. By definition the top rikishi on the banzuke will appear first, as there is no one above them on the banzuke at all. Those who show up on this list frequently that aren't already Ozeki or higher are likely to be worth keeping track of for the future. Probably anything the lower half of Jonidan or below isn't worth considering though. This is quick enough to put together that I can go back a few years if people find this interesting, since the last few years might still show some prospects worth considering that haven't hit their prime yet. Hatsu 2019 Y1e Kisenosato 03.07.1986 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms21w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms39e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms50e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd51e Yamato 03.07.2001 Sd83e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd84w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd5e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Haru 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J4e Takagenji 13.05.1997 J13w Takanofuji 13.05.1997 Ms1w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms7w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms20w Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms30e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms41e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd64e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd85w Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd69e Soga 09.02.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Natsu 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Goeido 06.04.1986 O1w Takayasu 28.02.1990 O2e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2e Kotokamatani 19.11.1997 Ms4e Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms4w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms15e Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms22e Naya 14.02.2000 Sd1e Hiradoumi 20.04.2000 Sd16e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd40w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd18e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd95w Soga 09.02.2003 Jd109w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Jk14e Yoshii 01.08.2003 Jk17e Otsuji 06.10.2003 Jk18e Koki 21.10.2003 Jk23e Wakahiroto 23.10.2003 Jk25e Daihisho 08.11.2003 Jk27w Hashimoto 15.01.2004 Jk28w Numano 13.02.2004 Ogitora just happens to be the youngest of the previous recruiting class, and his lingering in the triple digit Jd area probably means he won't go much of anywhere, unlike the barely older Kotokume who has already been in Sd. Numano will have the honors for the next year unless someone younger than him that graduated middle school early this year decides to join up later.
  9. Gurowake

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    Natsu 2002: They made it slightly harder to make the Sd100 and Jd25 tiers by having 20 less people in Sandanme. M3 Tier: Hoshoryu maintains his place in this tier for the last basho he's young enough to be on the list. He missed only one basho (Hatsu 2022) since first appearing in Hatsu 2019. J7 Tier: Kitanowaka returns for the first time since Natsu 2021. He also appeared every basho between then and Haru 2020. J14 Tier: Atamifuji +2 - Since Nagoya 2021 Ms15 Tier: Hokuseiho - Since Hatsu 2021 Ms30 Tier: Otsuji +2 - Since Haru 2020 Ms45 Tier: Kotohaguro - Lots of going on and off - see previous basho - most recently since Hatsu 2022. Ms60 Tier: Yoshii - Since Kyushu 2019 - unfortunately he's now out of pluses - at one point he was at +5 Sd25 Tier: Daihisho - Since Hatsu 2021 other than Nagoya 2021 Sd50 Tier: Miyata - Appeared previously Natsu and Nagoya 2021 Sd75 Tier - Mogamizakura +1 - Appeared previously Kyushu 2021 Sd10090 Tier - Chiyoshishi - new entry Jd25 Tier - Takashoki - Since Hatsu 2022 I used a different method of filtering for them that doesn't make catching honorable mentions as easy. I'm not going back through it again with a slightly different set of criteria.
  10. Natsu 2022: Y1e Terunofuji 29.11.1991 O1e Mitakeumi 25.12.1992 O2w Takakeisho 05.08.1996 K1e Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 M9e Kotoshoho 26.08.1999 M14e Oho 14.02.2000 J5e Kitanowaka 12.11.2000 J12w Atamifuji 03.09.2002 Ms23e Otsuji 06.10.2003 Sd8w Daihisho 08.11.2003 Sd33e Miyata 04.02.2005 Sd60e Mogamizakura 03.07.2005 Jd8w Takashoki 09.12.2005 Jd60e Kyokutaiga 28.02.2006 Jk5w Oyamazakura 15.08.2006 Jk10e Takaarashi 28.12.2006 Changes: 2 new recruits appear at the bottom of the list. Mizuno and Shunrai drop below Takashoki. The first is a switch for 3 basho in a row. Mogamizakura moves up past Nishida. Miyata moves up past Hokutoiwa. Then there's a bunch of no changes before Mitakeumi passes Takakeisho. Note that Kotoshoho and Oho did NOT switch for the first time in 5 basho.
  11. Gurowake

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - May 2022 edition

    1. Abi 2. Wakatakakage
  12. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Natsu 2022

    I'm doing this from memory so I might have the details wrong. Aoiyama and Myogiryu couldn't be promoted, and there was no one else left to fill in the gap before they could be placed other than Okinoumi. The latter should have been ranked behind the former two, but it simply wasn't possible. After Okinoumi, there were those two 7-8s who could be slotted in, plus Nishikigi who was equivalent in rank/record to Chiyoshoma who should also be added. That's how I got three in between them.
  13. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Natsu 2022

    There was a very good reason to separate them - just not the one they went with. However, the fact that you thought they should all be next to each other while I thought Okinoumi should be split from Chiyoshoma by 3 rikishi is perhaps part of the reason why Chiyoshoma managed to only be separated by 2 rikishi - it's part of a compromise.
  14. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Natsu 2022

    And yet somehow Ura ended up higher ranked than Wakamotoharu, which defies pretty much any logic other than a full win bonus for full joi schedule. I had Ura ahead of Takarafuji since the joi bonus is very often more than a half rank, but putting Ura ahead of Wakamotoharu just seems absolutely insane to me.
  15. Gurowake

    GTB Natsu 2022- Results!!

    I think they do this kind of stuff on purpose so that no one can ever truly guess what they're going to come up with.
  16. Gurowake

    GTB Natsu 2022- Results!!

    Terunofuji(3-3 Ye) Y Mitakeumi(11-4 Ow) O Shodai(9-6 Oe) O Takakeisho(8-7 Ow) Wakatakakage(12-3 Se) S Abi(8-7 Sw) Hoshoryu(8-7 Kw) K Daieisho(8-7 M1e) Ichinojo(9-6 M2e) M1 Kiribayama(10-5 M4e) Takayasu(12-3 M7e) M2 Kotonowaka(11-4 M6w) Hokutofuji(9-6 M6e) M3 Endo(8-7 M4w) Tamawashi(7-8 M2w) M4 Takanosho(4-11 Ke) Onosho(6-9 M3e) M5 Tobizaru(9-6 M9e) Wakamotoharu(9-6 M9w) M6 Ura(4-11 M1w) Takarafuji(6-9 M5e) M7 Kotoeko(9-6 M12e) Shimanoumi(8-7 M10e) M8 Terutsuyoshi(8-7 M11w) Kotoshoho(9-6 M14e) M9 Tochinoshin(9-6 M15w) Okinoumi(5-10 M7w) M10 Aoiyama(7-8 M10w) Myogiryu(7-8 M11e) M11 Nishikigi(9-6 M16e) Chiyoshoma(5-10 M8e) M12 Sadanoumi(5-10 M8w) Chiyotairyu(7-8 M12w) M13 Meisei(1-14 M3w) Ishiura(2-7 M5w) M14 Oho(10-5 J1e) Azumaryu(10-5 J2e) M15 Yutakayama(7-8 M14w) Ichiyamamoto(8-7 M17w) M16 Midorifuji(12-3 J6e) Kotokuzan(7-8 M16w) M17 Chiyomaru(5-10 M13e)
  17. Gurowake

    GTB Natsu 2022- Results!!

    I've found that using Edge works perfectly copying from Excel. Firefox causes an image to be uploaded instead, which really sucks. I haven't tried Chrome, which is probably what you're referring to; it would make sense that that browser would well with Google sheets, whereas Excel would work with Microsoft's browser.
  18. Gurowake

    Natsu 2022

    Who's the 4th non-Yokozuna? I assume 3 are Ozeki. I guess Wakatakakage? I can't see the full poster on the preview and I'm not going to twitter.
  19. Gurowake

    Sumo ABC help required

    As mentioned, something starting with "Kyu" works for Q. The closest you might get to an L is something that starts "Eru". For V, something that starts "Bi". For X, well, I never have figured out how X even became a letter. It's clearly superfluous. There are a reasonable number of Latin words ending in x that really end in s. Judging from the other forms of the words, "nox" (night) is really "nocts", "rex" (king) is really "regs", but before writing developed they considered the last sound to be distinct for some reason. I don't know what my point is. The closest thing you might find is something starting with "Kusu", but I doubt there are any.
  20. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    I can offer this as a start: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=7&group_by=rikishi&having=8&form1_wins=mk&form2_wins=kk&form3_wins=mk&form4_wins=kk&form5_wins=mk&form6_wins=kk&form7_wins=mk&group_expand=on I believe that shows Kirinji alternated MK and KK from at least 1981.09 to 1984.09, but you'll have to look further to see if anyone else with a large number of results for that query has them all consecutively (or rather, alternating basho, since the pattern searched for has to start with MK), as well as check the end points to see if it started or ended with consecutive KKs or MKs.
  21. Gurowake

    Sandanme 100 tsukedashi ? Not anymore..

    5!! is much larger than the number of Makushita rikishi.
  22. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

    I looked back until I could find a perfectly comparable situation, and found one not terribly long ago where the promotion was made. They definitely have been getting tighter on promotions lately. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201407#Ms
  23. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

    Churanoumi was more demotable here than the best candidate then. I'm rather surprised.
  24. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

    Not if it's 11 wins. Those only technically count as Yusho because someone has to win.
  25. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

    13 wins or 12 wins and Yusho.