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Everything posted by Randomitsuki

  1. Randomitsuki

    Superbanzuke Ranking for Aki 2020

    Hiya, now that Paper Oyakata Game has put up its banzuke online, I can proudly present the newest and latest edition of the Superbanzuke Ranking for Aki 2020. The links on the Superbanzuke entry page have also been updated. Happy gaming to you!
  2. Randomitsuki

    Happy Birthday, Pandaazuma!

    Happy birthday, Simon! Enjoy the next decade, and all the best for the games. Btw, I have finally ordered the trophy for 2019 and it will soon be on its way to Japan.
  3. Randomitsuki

    Invitation Makushita Game Aki 2020

    Hullo! Please consider playing Makushita Game for Aki Basho 2020. Some say it is as easy as pie, but then again what's so easy about pie? Try and find out! On Saturday, lower division absences are announced. You can enter your picks until midnight from Saturday to Sunday JST.
  4. Randomitsuki

    GTB Aki 2020- 121 entries - and RESULTS!!

    You would have, but as you wrote "spellling" with three L's your wish cannot be granted.
  5. Randomitsuki

    21-21: Rule or No Rule?

    There is only one rule in sumo: Never say never again
  6. Hi there, I have just finalized the July 2020 Masters Series as well as the standings for the 2020 Sumo Gaming World Championship. After almost five years, Andoreasu finally managed to win his seventh career Green Mawashi. The two-time World Champion did not win any yusho in July Basho, but managed a second place in Hoshitori Game, a third place in Ozumo Bingo Game, and some smaller change in eight other games to finish with a score well above 50 Masters points.Unkonoyama received his third career shukun-sho, not only for finishing second overall, but also for having the highest number of top scores (a yusho in Odd Sumo as well as two jun-yusho in twin games Paper Oyakata and OBG).Flohru gets his fourth career gino-sho for being strong in daily games (e.g., 3rd place in Odd Sumo) and pre-basho games (e.g., more than 10 points in the Japanese twin games).Flohru also receives the kanto-sho for scoring in the Top 10 in eight different games. It's already his twelfth Fighting Spirit Prize, improving his own record of most sansho in a single category!Congratulations to all the winners!
  7. Randomitsuki

    Do you eat eggs for breakfast?

    There was a 1990s documentary about rural life in Bavaria which carried the unforgettable title „The egg is a sh*tted godsend“ (the German title was highly alliterative and sounded much better - Das Ei ist eine geschissene Gottesgabe. That nicely wraps my adoration for eggs. Though I don‘t eat breakfast, eggs (whether boiled, scrambled, or fried) belong to the small category of things that consistently can make me very happy.
  8. Randomitsuki

    Superbanzuke July 2020 Masters Series - Results

    Thanks Oshirokita for pointing this out. I have never really looked at the code for the Nation‘s Table, and there appear to be numerous errors. Just for starters, the macro still assigns a yusho in Fantasy Sumo... I will look into it somewhat soon-ish.
  9. Randomitsuki

    Potential New Game

    Actually, there was also GISP on the Superbanzuke, before it was discontinued. You picked 1 Yokozuna, 1 Ozeki, 1 Sekiwake, 1 Komusubi, and 5 Maegashira. And just like your concept, points were simply added without any extra rules. I surely liked the simplicity of GISP and Fantasy Sumo. And I remember an analysis I did many years ago that GISP had a very high correlation between its standings and the Superbanzuke ranks (in other words, it was one of the best games in predicting general sumo gaming abilities). There is one thing I would consider, though. If you stick with six groups of 7 rikishi, most players are likely to pick identical rikishi in the first two groups. That would mostly be a Yokozuna in group 1, and mostly a Sekiwake in group 2 (when a Sekiwake is eligible). That would narrow the options.
  10. Randomitsuki

    Invitation for Makushita Game Nagoya 2020

    After six days of action, the field of players is still relatively packed. At the moment, Oortael leads in front of five players (among them this basho's lone Ozeki Flohru). To compute your current W/L estimates, you have to add two points to your WP entry column and round down the half-points (which shows that Oortael as the leader is currently on course for a meager 9-6 record). I also observed an interesting trajectory for Denho who was tied for first on shonichi and is now tied for last :(
  11. Hi there, sumo seems to be back. The games seem to be back. And so Makushita Game will be back. I have just assembled the Nagoya Banzuke (congrats to Tenshinhan for the Ozeki promotion) and sent it out to Doitsuyama. If you'd like to participate, visit http://makushita.sumogames.de/
  12. Randomitsuki

    Superbanzuke Ranking Nagoya 2020

    Hot off the press: the Nagoya (July) Superbanzuke. Enjoy!
  13. Randomitsuki

    Invitation for Makushita Game Nagoya 2020

  14. Randomitsuki

    Rock bands...

    These guys were still teens when they recorded that. I wonder how they will sound in 10 years.
  15. Randomitsuki

    Games Bugs

    This is Exil's territory, and I don't know how to change the info there. Alternatively, you can access many games via the Superbanzuke Website. http://99998271.com/sb/
  16. Randomitsuki

    Superbanzuke Site - HELP!!!!

    Thanks for the reply. I found a workaround solution (Simon once gave me the admin login details), and with the admin password I could access the site! I am still baffled though why Simon's normal user password isn't working anymore. He hasn't changed it, and neither have I.
  17. Randomitsuki

    Superbanzuke Site - HELP!!!!

    Hi there! There are new problems with the Superbanzuke site, so any and all help by more tech-savvy people than Simon and me would be highly appreciated. After not changing the SB page for several months I tried to upload an updated version of the starting page last night. I am using a program called WinSCP for that. When I open the program, I have to provide several pieces of information for login. Here is what I picked (all entries are translated from German): Protocol: FTP (chosen from a dropdown menu) Encryption: Explicit encryption (from a dropdown menu) Server address: ftp.99998271.com (entered manually) Port number: 21 (was picked automatically User name: *********** (here I entered the username that Pandaazuma picked) Password: *********** (here I entered the password that Pandaazuma picked). Normally, when I do this and hit "Login", a window pops up which checks whether the info is correct. The window appears, and first it says Connecting to ftp.99998271.com... (that is normal, followed by) TLS connection established. Waiting for welcome message... (that is also normal, but this time followed by) Access denied. Below that there is a text field that asks for the password (which is odd as I have entered the password already). When I enter the same password again, it goes through the same routine: Connecting to ftp.99998271.com etc.. What is going on there? Any ideas?
  18. Randomitsuki

    Happy Birthday Jakusotsu!

    I sure hope you'll have a nice one!
  19. Randomitsuki

    A Wrestling question for you

    Wikipedia says on this topic: Historians are unsure at what point wrestling changed from competitive catch wrestling into worked entertainment. However, documented accounts do exist: WWE Superstar Bret "Hitman" Hart recalls "a long and fascinating talk" he had in the summer of 1981 with the great Lou Thesz who told him that:
  20. Randomitsuki

    The History of the Best Rikishi of All Times (Video)

    I am no data scientist, and I must admit that I never heard of Trueskill or WHR before you mentioned it. I noticed that when Takanohana did not fight for almost a year in 2001/02, your graph showed a decline in ratings. But that makes perfect sense when your algorithm also takes the future into account. When I was hooked on Elo (until around 2017), I did it mainly to be good in sumo games, and there you have to work with the data of the past. But again, your perspective is super-interesting to me and I definitely appreciate the effort. The „problem“ with all these approaches is that they all have some face validity. In order to assess how accurately they depict reality, you would need them for predictive purposes. Did you check whether the variant you have chosen was superior to other approaches, e.g., using a different k factor?
  21. Randomitsuki

    The History of the Best Rikishi of All Times (Video)

    Wow, this is incredibly good stuff, especially on the visualization end! Some people on the forum have worked with Elo-type data for rikishi (Doitsuyama, Gurowake, and myself included). I will definitely have a look at my old data and will compare them to yours. It would be interesting to know more about your approach. In particular, I was curious about the machine learning part. If I had the skills for that, an ML approach would be something I would have tried for years. One thing I noticed is that the average ratings have gone up quite substantially over the last 100+ years. Of course, one could make the case that sumo wrestlers are much better now than before, but it could also be a statistical artifact of ratings inflation which plagues so many Elo-type approaches.
  22. Randomitsuki

    Search help: Ballet dancer's rikishi grandfather?

    Could be this guy for whom there is also a page on Japanese Wikipedia.
  23. Hiya. There have frequently been discussions (here and elsewhere) about the strength and/or dominance of Yokozuna. Is Hakuho just the best ever, or is he just lucky to have a bunch of mediocre rikishi around him? A couple of days ago I realized that I have the data to address some of these questions. It was quite an epic undertaking, with 20+ hours of work going into it. I had all the data available, but they were distributed over hundreds of files, and took a while to extract. Anyway, here is what I did. A couple of years ago, I began collecting Elo ratings for all SumoDB bouts since 1934. Elo ratings can be quite fickle: it is harder, though not impossible, to achieve high ratings with less bouts in a basho, less basho in a year, and less rikishi on the banzuke. Therefore my analyses began with all Yokozuna since the advent of the 6-basho era. I took the Elo ratings of all their bouts during their respective Yokozuna tenures. Moreover, in order to address the issue of dominance, I also recorded the Elo ratings of all their opponents. This allowed me to compute average Elo ratings for each basho of a Yokozuna, and, if the Yokozuna weren't kyujo, the average Elo ratings of their opponents for each basho. I will present the data in four charts. YOKOZUNA STRENGTH The first chart shows the Elo ratings of Yokozuna during their Yokozuna careers (click to enlarge). Some observations: There are rikishi who made Yokozuna while still improving, thus giving us something like a bell curve for their careers (Taiho and Kitanoumi are good examples). Other Yokozuna probably "fluked" into their promotion as a career highlight, and went downward from there on (Asashio, Tochinoumi, Kotozakura, Mienoumi, Takanosato, Asahifuji, Wakanohana; potentially also Harumafuji and Kakuryu). As can be seen from the overall gestalt of the graph, Yokozuna from the 1960s onward were much stronger than the first two on the list (for instance, at the end of his career Asashio had an Elo rating of about 2080. To put this into perspective, that is the current level of a guy like Sadanoumi on the current banzuke). Starting with Asashoryu, ratings went through the roof, a potential effect of the internationalization of sumo. Asashoryu bested age-old Elo ratings of Taiho, and Hakuho simply annihilated Asashoryu's records. The highest moment-to-moment rating of Hakuho was incredible 2690 points during Natsu 2011. Even Harumafuji and Kakuryu are not much weaker than Chiyonofuji, according to these data! Consequently, one could say that the most unfortunate Yokozuna of all time is Harumafuji - better than most on the list, but still a perennial also-ran There has also been talk about great rivalries recently. And the classic candidates show nicely on this graph: Kashiwado was second fiddle to Taiho for about five years, but then his rivalry (but not his career) ended. Wajima/Kitanoumi were also a nice couple, spiced up later by guys like Wakanohana and Mienoumi. Akebono/Takanohana was also a great matchup, specifically as the Japanese had the upper hand from 1994 to 1997, but Akebono was slightly better after that. It would be interesting to see what would have happened if Tamanoumi didn't die aged 27. He was about to potentially become a rikishi with incredible dominance. Wajima and Takanohana have very interesting curves with a very notable dip, followed by a comeback to former glory. Nice to see how Chiyonofuji became better and better during his tenure. I also had not known that Akebono had to finish his career while being on his highest rating ever! OPPONENT STRENGTH Now onto the second graph, charting the average Elo ratings of the Yokozuna's opponents. Some notes: There are some zigzag patterns with a particularly low opponent rating. This typically happens when a Yokozuna went kyujo after few days, having faced only low-rankers thus far. Once again, we can see two boosts in average opponent strength. One steady improvement from 1958 to 1965. And the internationalization effect kicking in since the Akebono tenure. On average, Yokozuna opponents have never been as strong as in the last few years! This puts the talk about mediocrity among current rikishi into some perspective, hopefully. On a final note, one can nicely see the Futagoyama effect in the mid-1990s. Akebono had a much, much tougher schedule than Takanohana. YOKOZUNA DOMINANCE Now onto the dominance patterns. I computed this graph by looking at the average difference between a Yokozuna during a basho and his opponents during the same basho. Here are the data: First, we can see that there is no general trend. Throughout modern history, the average difference between a Yokozuna and his opponents was between 150 and 300 rating points. Of course, there are some phases of incredible Yokozuna dominance. The first mention goes to Taiho who had very weak opposition during the second half of the 1960s. At the end of the 1970s, Kitanoumi was without serious opposition for some years. The late 1980s saw incredible dominance by Chiyonofuji, though not quite on Taiho levels. It appears that Takanohana was very dominant in the late 1990s, but keep in his mind that his opponents were in fact much weaker than Akebono's due to Futagoyama-beya's overall dominance. Asashoryu was without serious rival until Hakuho began an era of unprecedented dominance, even surpassing Taiho levels. What does that mean with regard to Hakuho? On the one hand, he is the best ever by pure Elo rating levels. On the other hand, his opponents are no muppets, and many of them have the strength of former Yokozuna (Kisenosato and Terunofuji come to mind with Elo ratings of more than 2300 points). On the third hand, however :-), Hakuho has no trouble coping with the better opponent levels, easily playing in a league of his own, dominance-wise. THE BOTTOM LINE On a final note: here is a graph for those people who find the upper graphs to wiggly. It shows the average career Elo rating of each modern Yokozuna during their tenure, and the average Elo rating of all their respective opponents. This graph is somewhat difficult to interpret, as some Yokozuna prolonged their careers to their bitter ends, while others miss the downward spiral due to injuries, death, or the benefit of still being active. In terms of average Elo ratings, Hakuho is numero uno, with Asashoryu a very distant second. Harumafuji and Kakuryu are currently in third and fourth place, but this might change (probably not upwards...). Among retired rikishi, Taiho, Tamanoumi, and Chiyonofuji also stick out. Kakuryu, Harumafuji, and Hakuho are the top three when it comes to opponent strength, another indicator that sumo might be much more high-profile right now than in ages past. As for the biggest difference between Yokozuna and their opponents, Hakuho easily leads, with Taiho and Chiyonofuji being far behind in second and third, respectively. Any comments on that?
  24. Randomitsuki

    Corona and sumo

    It took a single moderator coming out of sumo hiatus, and two hours of time. I kicked out everything that I believe only to be of tangential relation to sumo. I might have made some questionable judgments, but with 800+ posts things like that can happen. There's now an off-topic thread for that, called "General Corona Banter". Please try to have your discussions about Covid numbers, other sports, and particularly about Sweden over there. Thank you.
  25. Randomitsuki

    GTB Natsu 2020- 106 entries and results!

    I found your name in the standings though unfortunately you‘ll have to scroll a little...