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Posts posted by krindel

  1. Unfortunately, at this point it looks like if it does happen, it will be more of a chance occurrence than any sort of expected outcome.

    Barring Kisenosato, no one else has shown a level of performance even close to challenging for a Yusho, and Kisenosato is slowly but surely sinking into a defeatist attitude that is a combination of both his own shortcomings and factors beyond his control. Still, if it does happen, it will be either him or some sort of lucky break by a Tochiozan type (who, lets not forget, is still the only one to almost get a lucky Yusho all those years).

    So I am afraid I"ll have to go with "No" as a prediction.

  2. Based on the way even "normal" kimarite are named and defined I assume a "theoretical" kimarite would be something like "Hey, if he were to do what he just did backwards/from behind/from outside/standing on one leg, how would we call that?" Its perfectly possible that this results in a theoretical way to win that's completely distinct from any other kimarite, its physically possible and at the same time extremely improbable.

    Not to mention the fact that some of the more complicated and rare kimarite tend to get "downgraded" to the more basic ones, simply because the people who call the kimarite have a tendency to go for the more usual characterizations . A well known example is, of course, Mainoumi's mitokorozeme attempt vs Akebono that was called an uchigake, and a counter-example might be Hakuho's relatively recent yobimodoshi that I seriously doubt would have been called as such if he hadn't announced beforehand he'd be trying for that...

    • Like 4

  3. I always find the characterization of an institution, company or other organized group of people as "ethical" misleading. Even brushing aside the wide differences on what each person characterizes as "ethical", my opinion is that there might be such a thing as an ethical person, but can't see how you can apply that to an entire group. Even the most well meaning organizations tend to have hangers on that are just there for the plunder.

    For example, the OP says he wouldn't want to support rikishi from a stable that has a violent stablemaster who is accused of hazing. But who has he been hazing? The rikishi, of course... So basically, what you are saying is that you wouldn't want to support even the rikishi that have suffered hazing?

    Of course, I do understand the idea that in most cases, when the culture of the stable is pro-hazing, then the high rankers of the stable will probably be a part of it as well. But I am trying to say that even if your criterion for supporting a rikishi is ethics, you should try to judge each one individually, and not try to group them in any way.

    A very good example is the recent Kumagatani oyakata scandal, who has admitted to torturing his personal helper. Kumagatani was nominally part of Miyagino stable (and an ex-stablemaster), but in truth he was someone that was imposed on the stable by circumstances and the Kyokai. Why on earth would you judge the current Miyagino-oyakata and the rikishi there for the actions of someone whose presence they had to endure and couldn't do anything about?

    • Like 6

  4. Not everyone can just browse through high Makushita (especially since its kind of loaded right now), and there's no real sample size to go by here. I'll say he does make it to sekitori but it takes him the full year to do so, so I'll say he'll be ranked J12e for his debut sekitori basho of Hatsu 2017 (that means of course 0 sekitori wins for 2016)

  5. There's no way I am voting for him to retire! I think he'll start playing Kyokutenho, and go from small KK to small MK to avoid landing back among the big boys. Still, he has proven to be still very much relevant and quite dangerous if underestimated, so I'll say between 9-6 and 5-10.

  6. Well, last basho he came back from 5-7 to save the KK, but I am afraid he might not manage to replicate the feat next basho from a bit higher up the banzuke and end up with a small MK instead. Still, I think he can bounce back up and reach the jo'i, so lets say M3 high rank and a win over M1.

  7. Another elevator year for him so 3 wins. If he can manage to stay relatively healthy, he'll probably make it to sanyaku finally, so I'll say K1w for next year, and a best result of 11-4.

  8. I hope he either pulls himself together and manages to perform like a half decent Ozeki, or vacate the rank. I lean towards predicting the latter, so S1e, 1 double digit win basho. and 2 KK.

  9. Hakuho Y Kakuryu

    Harumafuji Y

    Terunofuji O Kisenosato

    And that's it... Kotoshogiku seems to be half an injury away from intai, and if Goeido gives us another year of 8-7, 7-8, 9-6, 7-8 etc and is still Ozeki, I'll go join sumotalk...

    As far as upwards mobility, I don't think Teru is ready for a double feature Yusho yet, and I really can't see who else could be the next Ozeki as things stand.

    • Like 1

  10. I was part of the Ichinojo-Ozeki band last year, but having seen him this past year, he has a lot of weight loss to do and a lot of learning if he'll even get there.

    I think he'll play elevator in and out of the jo'i jin, might even crack the sanyaku at some point but not maintain it. I'll give him 4 KK, and a rank of M2e for next January.

  11. From a search on the forum, maybe this is the one you remember?

    Harumafuji vs Tochinoshin, Aki 2011.


    This was also flagged as a "double-henka" at the time, although it is probably less clear cut

    Asasekiryu - Ikioi, Haru 2012.

    Also this:

    Aran - Takekaze from Nagoya 2011

    Other mentions I found are for Asasekiryu - Tochinoshin from Haru 2011, but can't find videos...

    • Like 9

  12. Strength of schedule is generally only relevant when it's "people who faced all the Y/O" vs. "people who didn't", and as can be seen by Ichinojo's placement over Osunaarashi this basho, the first might even to loosened to "almost all the Y/O". And it generally only comes into play once you have already considered the win/loss difference and are looking at putting two people at the same place. Aminishiki's schedule at M3w was much easier than it would have been if there had been 6 or less Y+O, although in general his schedule is easier just because of his heya. I don't think you put any weight on Aminishiki facing one Ozeki and 2 Komusubi any more than you do putting Shohozan against an M1 and M3, and so I'd say you'd just move both of them by the numbers and Shohozan is clearly ahead, but falls just short of Tochinoshin, who should get priority for having fought all the Y/O even if he wasn't slightly ahead. At least, that's my take on it.

    Everywhere else on the banzuke, there's not much difference between any two adjacent ranks, but there tends to be a very sharp cut-off of those in the top 16 vs. those that are not.

    You are forgetting the current banzuke fad:

    "If in doubt, screw Tochinoshin".

    • Like 2

  13. Assuming the question is serious, its far from an easy process. Unless one happens to have an uncle who is a former dai-yokozuna and is willing to open a heya to accommodate, that is.

    Roughly speaking, one would need to have some decent amateur experience to show, be of an impressive enough size and athleticism to cover for the shortcoming of not being Mongolian, and be willing to go through a hard process of waiting and disappointment. Then, one would need to reach out to some people in Japan with connections to the sumo world, and hope they can help. But since it all depends on both the existence of an opening, and on being able to convince the particular oyakata that happens to have the opening that one is worth the shot, its far from an easy venture.

    If you look at the list of the recent foreigners who came into professional sumo, you'll notice that there's a time gap of two years or so between non-Asian newcomers, and its almost 10 years since the major influx of Europeans ended. There are others in this forum who are far more qualified to offer insight on what the kids that do want to try go through, but just the scarcity of successful applicants should tell you all you need to know about how hard it is to make it.

    P.S. And if I may make a correction, there's no such thing as "a sumo", its a wrestler, a rikishi or if you prefer, a sumotori.

    • Like 1