Jaak
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Everything posted by Jaak
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The problem with precedents is that something in their mentality clearly changed a few years ago. After adding two extra sanyaku slots for Kyushu 2006 for the last time (via M1w 10-5 and M3w 11-4), they've gone through major contortions to avoid doing it again, including in the very next basho (M2e 10-5 -> M1e, M3w 10-5 -> M1w). There does seem to have been a change, but this was older. After the "haridashi" practice was dropped (1994.07 had K2 without HD), there have been 12 banzukes with K2 row. 11 of them were from 1994.07 to 2000.05. Since then, only 2006.11. Of course, this does not compare cases where adding rows could have been justified but was not done. S2 is often filled by ex-ozekis. Excluding them, there have been 12 banzukes with S12 since 1995.11. The last two were Tochiazuma 2000.03 and Wakanosato 2003.03. As for precedents of Toyonoshima: there have been 8 14:1 maegashiras, 6 were yushos (did not check for kettei-sen victories), 1 yusho-doten, 1 jun-yusho. None stayed in maegashira, 3 reached K2, 1 K1, 1 got S2 and 3 got S1W. Out of the 23 13:2 maegashiras, 2 were neither yusho nor jun-yusho, 11 were jun-yusho, 2 were yusho-doten, 8 were yusho. 6 stayed in maegashira, 1 got K2, 7 got K1, 9 reached sekiwake (2 of them S2). The highest maegashira to stay there after 13:2 was M8w Tamanoshima after 1966.01.
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No one should have to lose in a situation like that. There is no rule stating that there must be only two rikishis at the komusubi level. In this case, the fairest thing to do would be having three of them. The only difference btwn M1E and K2e/w is an honorific and possibly a slight pay differential. They normally only go to more than 2 komusubi/sekiwake when there is no choice (no MK K or S, and a strong M1 showing). Here, they have 2 MK's and a hole at M1. There is a clear choice. Have a look around the previous 7:8 sekiwakes. Aki 1999. Tosanoumi, S1W. The rest of banzuke was S1e Kaio 9:6, K1e Kotonishiki vacating the post with 5:10, K1w Musoyama 8:7, M1e Tochiazuma 10:5, M1W Tamakasuga 8:7, M2 both 7:8, M3e 6:9, M3w Akinoshima 11:4, M4 3:12 and 7:8, M5e Miyabiyama 10:5. Kyushu 1999 banzuke contained S1e Kaio, S1w Tochiazuma, K1e Musoyama, K1w Akinoshima, K2w Tosanoumi, M1e Tamakasuga, M1w Miyabiyama. Or the previous precedents: Tamakasuga after 1997:07 and Kotonishiki after 1993.01. My impression from statistics is that demoting a sekiwake to maegashira for 7:8 performance seems to be avoided, and even if there are other good komusubi candidates, a komusubi row would be added rather than demote the sekiwake to maegashira.
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Kise, Shogi, Toyo, Ozan. Kaku loses. Pretty likely that Kakuryu is the last. But remember Tosanoumi and 2 others before, who got K2 row. What we need to compare here is Toyonoshima, Kakuryu and Kotoshogiku, because Tochiozan and Kisenosato are entitled to be above Kakuryu and Kotoshogiku respectively.
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No argument from me here - except that I'm willing to bet a large amount that there won't be "haridashi" on the next banzuke. The last time with an haridashi extension was Kyushu 1994 which is awfully long ago, no? Which is why I took care to put quotation marks around the term - were the practice current, there would be no need for quote. Is there any new term for the practice of adding rows? The only sekiwake to go S1 to S2 with 8 losses was Mitsuneyama, S1e, after 1951.05. Since then (27 cases), demotion to S2 happens to S1 who get 8 or sometimes 9 wins but presumably others do better. Last Tochiazuma, S1W in 2000.01, fell to S2 with 8:7. I can see 16 promotions from maegashira to S2. But none of them was below M4w (Wakamisugi, 1960.05, 14:1Y). However, there are more cases of occupying a regular sekiwake position - Kotomitsuki rose from M9w, 2000.11, 13:2 J to S1w. Kiyokuni, in 1964.01 rose from M13e, 14:1 J to S1w. So Toyonoshima could qualify as sekiwake, and perhaps S2. Returning to M-S2 promotions, these have been achieved from as little as 9:6 (Wakahaguro, 1957.03, M2e). But promotion to S2 is perhaps a bigger recognition than promotion to S1W - promotion to regular sekiwake post can simply mean lackluster performance where the rest of jo-jin did even worse, but promotion to S2 shows performance so compelling that even though sekiwake posts were taken, promotion to komusubi could not suffice...
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Some statistics on comparable marginal cases. Maegashira, any maegashira with 14:1 result. 8 cases before Toyonoshima. 6 were yushos, 1 yusho-doten, 1 jun-yusho. All 8 without exception got in sanyaku - 4 of 8 as "haridashi" (last on separate line). Even Kiyokuni, with M13e jun-yusho in 1964.01 got promoted to S1W; K2eHD was the outcome for Tsurugamine (yusho-doten in M10e, 1956.01), Kotofuji (M13e yusho in 1991.07) and (without HD) Kotonishiki (M12w in 1998.11). 13:2 would give more options. 7 out of 24 stayed in maegashira, as high as Tamanoshima (M8W jun-yusho in 1966.01). But Takatoriki (M14e yusho in 2000.03) got K2w. Now, M1W 9:6. Out of the 33, just 2 got to M1e (last Asahikuni after 1974.05). 6 got K2w, last Takatoriki after 1994.05. Finally, S1W with 8 losses. 40 precedents. Just 5 were demoted to Maegashira, last Takatoriki after 1992.01. 8 got K2, among them 3 after demotion of Takatoriki. Tosanoumi after 1999.09 got K2W. It seems to me that Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku and Toyonoshima are all entitled to sanyaku promotion (and if Kotoshogiku is entitled, so is Kisenosato - same argument for Kakuryu and Tochiozan). So there are compelling reasons for "haridashi". What would be more likely - a K2 row or a S2 row?