Kozaru

I don't have any problem with Hakkaku, being a frequent asageiko watcher there, but are they still blaming the H1N1 on foreigners? We don't even have to doi the quarantine thing at Narita anymore as we did in May! (Shaking head...) My girlfriend is a teacher in a Japanese elementary. She went to Taiwan in summer, and the school made her quarantine herself for 5 days before she was allowed to go back to class. So she missed the first few days, which they'll no doubt hold over her head next time she needs a favour. So yes, they're blaming the H1N1 on foreigners. Last figures I saw suggested that Taiwan had 1/4 of the case per capita that Japan does. It began as a "foreign disease", and they are unable to change their thinking as the situation changes. Stereotypical Japanese 'thinking'.

Do people really make angry phone calls to the Association for stuff like this? Or is it just exaggeration? Is that what the old people do? Don't they have a Japanese forum they can bitch on?

Considerably more common before 1958? I've got it! They've both done naughty, naughty things with Makiko Uchidate?

The nodowas broke his concentration and disrupted his attack plan. He forgot to bring in a plan B. He's not Chiyotaikai. Shouldn't a Yokozuna always bring plan B?

4 losses with 24 regulation matches to go in the year. 2 vs. Asa (I hope), 2 vs. Kotooshu (who is on fire), 2 vs. Haruma (who has his number quite often)..... I don't think it's looking good to break the record. Tie is still up in the air.

Hakuho did nothing resembling offence at all. That was an embarrassment.

Yeah, when they meet each other....... Damn! They're on to me! I hope nobody really picked both Chiyo and Kaio today.... or either of them.

I predict there will be at least one more day when one of them wins and the other loses. I'll even put money on it. Any suckers takers?

I often feel that the guys who hang out in low-mid maegashira don't get much respect for their abilities. I also have seen people refer to a rikishi as a "lifetime maegashira" in a derogatory manner. So I wanted to take a look at what percentage of rikishi will ever make maegashira, and found myself checking out the Doitsubase for new recruits from 1994 to 1996. I recorded the number of new recruits in each basho in those years, and the number that eventually made juryo, maegashira, sanyaku and ozeki. I chose those years because they're relatively recent, but if one of those guys was going to make juryo, they'd almost definitely have done it by now. There might be some exceptions, but the number will be very small compared to the number of new recruits. Anyway, here is what I found: - total # of new recruits from 1994-1996 is 447 - number that made juryo is 22, or 4.9% - number that made maegashira is 13, or 2.9% - number that made sanyaku is 7, or 1.6% - number that made ozeki is 2, or 0.5% I know every year is different, but these can be taken as rough averages, I suppose. So only 1 in 20 new recruits will ever make sekitori, 1 in 35 make maegashira, 1 in 63 make sanyaku, and 1 in 222 make ozeki (the ozeki figure is especially error-prone because of the small numbers involved). Note that these numbers are cumulative, so if a guy made sanyaku, he got counted in the juryo, maegashira and sanyaku categories. I guess my point is that for a guy to spend a career in maegashira is quite an accomplishment, and they deserve a little more respect for rising that high. The vast majority will never even approach that level, and of those who do make it, some will get only a brief sniff of the division before demotion. Comments? Anybody have any issues with my results or methods?

At least not THAT Yokozuna. Hakuho might have let Baruto leave the ring with a bit more of his dignity intact. Alright Arslan, you win this round! But I'll be back! *shake fist and laugh maniacally* (I'm happy Asa won, by the way).

At the beginning of the English broadcast, the guys said that Baruto told the press he was looking forward to lifting Asa up and out of the ring. That explains why Asa worked him that way. Should teach Baruto a very valuable lesson. And you gotta love Asa for that attitude!

I knew that, which is why I made the comment. Baruto has never beaten a Yok, but seems tomorrow might be his chance. Asa is vulnerable, and I have a feeling Baruto has a really good shot this time.

Thanks. I did search, I swear. Couldn't find the right keywords. I tried "chance rikishi juryo", "new rikishi maegashira", etc., but no matches.

Good work, thanks! Seems that 1994-1996 was a bit below average for sekitori production. Still, the numbers weren't that far off, and my original point can still stand. I honestly expected a much higher number to make it to juryo for at least one basho, so the results were surprising. Seems that a career in sumo is not a very good gamble for a young person. You've really gotta want to do it.

I might do that. But if I do, or if anybody else does it for me (*wink*), we should work backwards from 1994, as opposed to forwards from 1996. The later we choose our years, the more chance we have of missing a couple of late-bloomers. The vast majority of the rikishi in my study were already retired, so the numbers are pretty solid (unless I had some massive lapse of intellect).

Anybody else get the feeling that Asa is vulnerable to Baruto on Day 1?

Maybe I'm being naive, but this is exactly what I'd expect. The level of stupidity required for a rikishi to dope at this point would be difficult to describe with words.

I knew he was old when I started watching sumo, but I didn't know he was THAT old! Dang!

I don't like it either. I just got back from Africa, where I saw many animal symbols of strength, speed, stealth, beauty and courage. So among all of the animals, what do they choose? A frickin' chicken!? That rhymes. Anyways, with the chicken being associated with cowardice both in western culture and even in Japan (my students call each other chicken), you've gotta wonder who gave the green-light to this one. And assuming that this was one of several options presented to them for final selection, you have to wonder what the other options looked like!

Sorry for the consecutive posts. I know some of you hate it. Asasho, thanks for the information. Are you able to perhaps make a guess of what a legend like Asashoryu might receive when he retires? (Bonus points if you know how much of it could go to his ex under Japanese law) Treblemaker, I want to explore your "last note" idea a little more. Let's say hypothetically that Asashoryu goes 8-7 then 7-8 over the next 2 basho, then retires. Would he be remembered for a spectacular decline and going 7-8 as a Yokozuna, or would he be remembered as a kick-ass Yokozuna who had the best single year of any sumo wrestler in modern history? I guess the question is, what would count as his "last note"?

This discussion makes me glad that I've never witnessed a Yokozuna fiasco. I started watching in 2005, and have been treated to two of the best Yokozuna to ever step into the ring! Treblemaker, I see your point, but let me ask you a question on your own terms, as a musician..... forget how people will remember you, just think of your own personal satisfaction. Here is the question: Would you rather spend a lifetime playing gigs in small clubs and bars, or would you trade it all for one night playing a sold-out stadium, with everybody screaming your name and singing along? I can see you making a case for either answer, so I'm interested in what you'll say. I'd trade it all for that one night.

I'm reminded of the question, "What do they call the guy who graduates from medical school lowest in his class?" The answer is that he's called, "Doctor". Well, what do they call the worst Yokozuna ever? Yokozuna. I'm still hoping somebody can tell me the differences in retirement status and payment for an Ozeki and a Yokozuna. I'd imagine even the shortest-term Yokozuna gets treated better than an Ozeki, as far as benefits are concerned.

What are the differences in post-retirement benefits between a Yokozuna (even a 3-hour one) and an Ozeki? I'm guessing there are some. If it were me, I'd want to be a mediocre Yokozuna rather than a long-time Ozeki. A mediocre Yokozuna has at least won a yusho, which must be every new recruit's dream. Not every Ozeki will ever win a yusho. Hard to imagine any new recruit not dreaming of wearing the tsuna or doing his own ring entrance ceremony. That would be awesome! What about getting a number next to your name, like the 68th Yokozuna? They don't count Ozeki. Screw a long career as an active rikishi, I want my own sword and some putz to carry it for me! So for me, I'm for attempting to make Yokozuna. But I've discovered through my explorations of other Ozeki..... situations..... that I can't figure out what's going through these guys' heads. Pride doesn't seem to be a huge priority for them, and it would be for me.

It's going to be fricking hard to lose only 3 matches the rest of the year. Asa is good for one win, Haruma for another... then you've got Kotooshu/Baruto/Goeido good for one between them, and another one to Kisenosato/Aminishiki/Toyonoshima. Even Kakuryu might get one. I'd say there is an excellent chance of a tie, maybe even odds. But breaking it will be a very tall order.

I was there on Sunday, and actually asked about this. You can re-enter, but it's once only.