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Everything posted by Doitsuyama

  1. Doitsuyama

    Basho Talk - Aki 2015 +++ Spoiler alert! +++

    I object here. The "trajectory" is determined mainly by age, which is a factor you conveniently omit here. Let me inform you that Ichinojo is a lot younger than Chiyotairyu, Jokoryu and Endo - no comparison there. Osunaarashi is comparable, but same trajectory? Lets see: Osunaarashi: Juryo debut at 21.5m, 10-5, 10-5, Makuuchi debut at 21.9m, 7-8 at M15w Ichinojo: Juryo debut at 21.1m, 11-4, 13-2, Makuuchi debut at 21.5m, 13-2 at M10e Sorry, but Ichinojo's trajectory was massively different with 37-8 in his first three sekitori basho, which by the way is the all-time record. Certainly such trajectory means little as the wall can hit one at any time on the way to the highest rank, as exactly this record list of mostly non-yokozunae illustrates nicely, which probably is your valid point. Still, putting Ichinojo in the same sentence with Jokoryu and Chiyotairyu, what can I say...
  2. Doitsuyama

    Maegashira game Aki Basho 2015

    There are a few new players so something must work though. Not sure what the conditions are for this to happen (either way) but I fixed this now, and you and other interested players should be able to join the game by the "Register" link.
  3. Doitsuyama

    Games Bugs

    Golynohana's on holiday without access to the server, so no Salarycap this basho.
  4. Doitsuyama

    No Salarycap Sumo in Aki 2015

    Golynohana happens to be on vacation and is armed only with his cell phone. He can't even post on the forum with it and has no access to the server. The automation of Salarycap Sumo isn't fully completed yet, so he told me to tell you that this beauty of a game will not be held this basho and resume in Kyushu.
  5. This almost certainly will lead to different results, and it has nothing to do with differences between the decades: not everyone enters Juryo at the same skill level relative to others there. If you assign Ichinojo and Mitakeumi the same initial rating upon entering Juryo as Kotoeko and Wakanoshima, you're throwing away a lot of information. While any deviations from their true relative rating will be corrected over time, the cumulative effect is to not be injecting enough points into those rikishi who are far more likely to make it through Juryo and the bottom of Makuuchi and thus depressing ratings in the top of the division. I don't see much of an argument here. The rating for new entrants rather quickly converges to the true rating, most certainly by the time they reach yokozuna, and this actually is the topic of the debate. But I am still bothered (a lot) about the artificial assumption that the average rating of the whole banzuke is 1500 at all times. I assume not only Hakuho and his direct competition is at an all-time high, but also the (for example) rikishi at positions 31 to 40? Actually this is a question at Randomitsuki as well. If this is indeed the case this just means the makuuchi division is (theoretically) beating up the middle of the banzuke better than ever which might well be true. But how do you know this midddle of the banzuke hasn't gotten weaker now than in other times? The structure of rikishi in the deshi ranks is totally different now than decades ago in age and experience, while the makeup of juryo and makuuchi is basically unchanged, but you (by definition even!) declare it the same. Therefore I still like my method better.
  6. I did a quite similar undertaking some years ago (2004, 2005, 2006, 2010) without these nice graphs but with some numbers and not restricted to Yokozunae. Many results are of course similar, with the biggest deviation being that I took only results from juryo and makuuchi as the lower divisions varied so much during the decades that I feel the assumption of a constant average of 1500 is a fallacy possibly leading to bad results. Anyway, I do have Asashoryu behind Taiho, Kitanoumi, Tamanoumi and Chiyonofuji which seems like a good debate coming up. [;)] Hakuho of course is the best yokozuna ever and any argument to put him behind somebody else has to resort to "feeling" or other non-logic, well demonstrated in the other thread.
  7. Doitsuyama

    Juryo promotions for Aki Basho 2015

    Good luck with that! I got it after some initial confusion. And yes, you better be sorry on both accounts. :-)
  8. Doitsuyama

    Games Bugs

    Sumo DB records are fixed now. Results for Hoshitori and Juryo Game look ok now on a first check, congratulations to Smoczayama, the semi-anonymous one for winning Hoshitori in a landslide and also placing fourth in Juryo Game (co-won by Pitinosato and Tenshinhan).
  9. New makuuchi rikishi just shouldn't start at 1500. They aren't falling from heaven but coming up from juryo and the most likely true rating of a new makuuchi rikishi is the lowest makuuchi level, i.e. about 1250? Hidenoumi at 1500 is a joke to put this bluntly. The ratings also seem to be off in many cases, and just don't look like they would give good predictions. Can you add the predicted results for this basho? Also, changing ratings after each bout actually is much better as strength changes between basho get reflected during the basho (good for daily games) and not after when it's just too late. That's not your goal I believe and for you it should be sufficient going basho by basho.
  10. Doitsuyama

    New kesho mawashi

    No, that's just the middle part of his shikona from top to bottom on the left side. Yes it is. It is actually one and the same. Something, I must confess, I was't aware of. The middle part of his shikona is in fact this 夢 (yume). :) Well, no it isn't "the decorative element". That this kanji is part of his shikona is very well known to me.
  11. Doitsuyama

    New kesho mawashi

    No, that's just the middle part of his shikona from top to bottom on the left side.
  12. Doitsuyama

    Nagoya 2015 Videos- Days 1-15

    Please keep comments about the bouts to the relevant topic. Would you kindly describe what the relevant topic is..? Maybe I should have added that Satoyama took the whole bucket of salt with him when he tumbled down at the corner of the dohyo. Hope this helps. I think it's pretty obvious that the video topic isn't the right place to write who won or lost in specific bouts. Hopefully you'll agree to put these comments in the "Basho Talk - Nagoya 2015 +++ Spoiler alert! +++" topic where spoilers are welcome.
  13. Doitsuyama

    Banzuke Surfing Nagoya 2015 (11th Wave)

    Sd92w Kotonawa
  14. Doitsuyama

    Banzuke Surfing Nagoya 2015 (10th Wave)

    Ms43e Masakaze
  15. Doitsuyama

    Banzuke Surfing Nagoya 2015 (9th Wave)

    Ms14w Chiyonokuni
  16. Doitsuyama

    Banzuke Surfing Nagoya 2015 (8th Wave)

    Ms28w Keitenkai
  17. Doitsuyama

    Banzuke Surfing Nagoya 2015 (7th Wave)

    Ms40e Matsubayma
  18. Doitsuyama

    Banzuke Surfing Nagoya 2015 (6th Wave)

    Ms3e Sakigake
  19. Doitsuyama

    Preparations of the Y/O - July 2015

    Smartphones are overrated... You know that he actually is facing Tochinoshin? Maybe he wasn't too sure himself as his statement can be said against any opponent on any day (ok, maybe he should at least be in the yusho race to say this but still).
  20. Doitsuyama

    GTB -Nagoyim 2015

    Welcome to the wildness, also known as the banzuke selection stats. Actually, all rikishi had at least 8 bulls-eyes, which isn't too bad. Biggest surprises probably were Yoshikaze and of course Takanoiwa who only 18 players saw staying in makuuchi (seven players even rising in rank...).
  21. Doitsuyama

    2ND LEAGUE NATSU 15 (May Basho)

    Just a suggestion: There could be a tie-breaker for the shukun-sho (most yusho): In case of same yusho number the sum of participants in those games can be used to determine the more "valuable" yusho, giving the shukun-sho to Flohru with 50 players (15+35) over andonishiki (15+12) and chishafuwaku (11+15).
  22. Doitsuyama

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2015

    Maybe this query is helpful? All basho since 1980 with three or more komusubi, rows are rikishi, first series of columns is the basho before, so you can see their scores leading to the komusubi rank right away.
  23. Doitsuyama

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2015

    To put it another way, if two rikishi have the same result for a basho, the one who was ranked higher will be ranked higher in the next basho as well. Well, basically yes... but please check what happened at the Sekiwake ranks on the Nagoya 2014 banzuke (sorry, can't hyperlink when using smartphone) So remember: with the NSK it is NSN* *= Never Say Never ;-) Huh? This is in no way related to the statement. It says "A implies B" with A being rikishi having same score (or the higher ranked having a better score) and B is the higher ranked rikishi stays ahead of the lower ranked rikishi. Your case simply doesn't have "A", it does have the lower ranked rikishi with the higher score, so there is absolutely no conclusion here. Using such examples is just making me cringe. * I know of one, and only one exemption of the "rule" in question: If two yokozuna have the same score, but the lower ranked wins the yusho playoff he very well may end up ahead on the next banzuke (but even this is a recent development).
  24. Doitsuyama

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2015

    Look closely at this banzuke and then at this one. ;-) Yep, they definitely were more patient back then like today, that's for sure.
  25. Doitsuyama

    Retirees after Natsu 2015

    (IIRC) I found a comprehensive list of all Heisei era rikishi with readings and heya history on the web, which was extremely valuable to clear up all name readings and heya histories. Of course, this list may be wrong, but so far it has held up the test of time quite well.