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Everything posted by Doitsuyama

  1. Doitsuyama

    Why Do Rikishi Under Juryo Have 7 Matches?

    Pfft. I'd take any Japanese kid with a soroban over a quantum computer Indeed, a computer really isn't necessary. Swiss system in chess is done since the 19th century. Enough said...
  2. Doitsuyama

    Why Do Rikishi Under Juryo Have 7 Matches?

    Swiss style scheduling is coming from chess I believe (which I played for more than a few years), and I can assure you that the rulebook (and software even back then) for swiss scheduling cover "additional" rounds quite well, and more rounds of course help (not hinder) finding out the true winner. I'm absolutely sure your scenario is a non-issue and can easily be solved.
  3. Doitsuyama

    Sumo Reference Updates

    Yes it certainly should... do you have a certain case in mind?
  4. Doitsuyama

    New recruits for Aki 2015

    Thanks. I suppose to participate in the collegiate meets he must have formally been a member of this sumo club, so I listed him as a college rikishi now.
  5. Doitsuyama

    New recruits for Aki 2015

    More info and pics now. Nakano has no desire to become a pharmacist, he wants to earn a living in sumo. His sports background is breaststroke swimming, he was in all disciplines in national athletic meets, but he couldn't forget sumo and the frustration when he lost in a primary school sumo tournament. Last year he stopped swimming and joined a local sumo dojo. He was 7th in the west Japan weight divisions student championships under 85kg class and could enter the national championships in autumn, but he he rather decided to enter at once. "First of all gaining weight and getting to sandanme."I wonder what his university status in Sumo Reference should be? Joining a local dojo doesn't sound like a college sumo club, but to participate in the student championships he must have college rikishi status, no? So, should I leave him at "No university" or add Matsuyama Univ. and assign him to that?
  6. Doitsuyama

    Day After pics Aki2015

    You wish... it most likely is a sheet with the Aki basho results. If they are speaking about it, this sure comes handy then.
  7. Doitsuyama

    Saitama tickets October 10

    Good comparison. No, you wouldn't know if it was real or not, and I'm sorry for my co-forum-inhabitants to spoil that. ;-) Mostly it's real enough, meaning the rikishi really are trying to win, just not by any means. The local rikishi seem to always win though. (Sigh...) Since you wouldn't know who is local to Saitama that's not much of a spoiler, I guess.
  8. Doitsuyama

    New recruits for Aki 2015

    No results available of mae-zumo this time?
  9. Doitsuyama

    From Sumo to Puroresu

    Well, name readings of old toriteki are rather obscure of course. Getting the right readings is always welcome, and it's corrected in Sumo Reference now, thanks!
  10. Doitsuyama

    Sansho Aki 2015 - Special Prizes

    1) It doesn't. 2) Giving him three sansho would rather obviously be too much, and since the kanto-sho is arguably the least prestiguous sansho he will be very happy to carry the other two prizes.
  11. Doitsuyama

    Basho Talk - Aki 2015 +++ Spoiler alert! +++

    I guess I could state the same statement about two arbitrary rikishi in the way you do it - without any arguments to support it, it's rather weak though. Let's look at the post-yokozuna-promotion scores (since including the promotion is a difference you concede already). Kakuryu is 77-28 as a yokozuna (73.3%) while Kisenosato is 94-41 in the same time (69.6%). Kakuryu got criticised in that time, what can we say about Kisenosato then? Not many good things probably... Speaking of probability, Kakuryu is not significantly better than Kisenosato actually (90% confidence interval of his win% is from 65% to 80%, with Kisenosato's ranging from 62% to 76%), and going by the eye test I agree that Kisenosato isn't looking exactly worse. But Kakuryu is much better in the big point situations (and I don't mean applying a henka here).
  12. Doitsuyama

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2015

    No need to "split" prizes. There can be (and have often been) multiple prizes which do count as a full prize.
  13. Doitsuyama

    Games Bugs

    Thanks, should be corrected now.
  14. Doitsuyama

    Aki 2015 Videos- Promo + Days 1-15

    Apparently a win against Terunofuji counts double nowadays as Tochiozan made kachi-koshi from 6-5. :-P
  15. Doitsuyama

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2015

    Since Sumo still is a zero-sum-game I wondered if I read it right. I guess Takarafuji and Tamawashi would like to have a word with you about that. ;-)
  16. Doitsuyama

    Maegashira game Aki Basho 2015

    Not really. Just pick the winners of the last three bouts and you're fine. Actually, I always picked the *losers* of the last three bouts and usually was fine with that. Since the majority picks the winners (all supposedly of course) it's a matter of probability(win)*picknumber(lose) vs. (1-probability(win))*picknumber(win) and usually picking the loser ends up with the higher expected value. (Of course I never looked into the database before -or after- making my picks).
  17. Doitsuyama

    Basho Talk - Aki 2015 +++ Spoiler alert! +++

    I object here. The "trajectory" is determined mainly by age, which is a factor you conveniently omit here. Let me inform you that Ichinojo is a lot younger than Chiyotairyu, Jokoryu and Endo - no comparison there. Osunaarashi is comparable, but same trajectory? Lets see: Osunaarashi: Juryo debut at 21.5m, 10-5, 10-5, Makuuchi debut at 21.9m, 7-8 at M15w Ichinojo: Juryo debut at 21.1m, 11-4, 13-2, Makuuchi debut at 21.5m, 13-2 at M10e Sorry, but Ichinojo's trajectory was massively different with 37-8 in his first three sekitori basho, which by the way is the all-time record. Certainly such trajectory means little as the wall can hit one at any time on the way to the highest rank, as exactly this record list of mostly non-yokozunae illustrates nicely, which probably is your valid point. Still, putting Ichinojo in the same sentence with Jokoryu and Chiyotairyu, what can I say...
  18. Doitsuyama

    Maegashira game Aki Basho 2015

    There are a few new players so something must work though. Not sure what the conditions are for this to happen (either way) but I fixed this now, and you and other interested players should be able to join the game by the "Register" link.
  19. Doitsuyama

    Games Bugs

    Golynohana's on holiday without access to the server, so no Salarycap this basho.
  20. Doitsuyama

    No Salarycap Sumo in Aki 2015

    Golynohana happens to be on vacation and is armed only with his cell phone. He can't even post on the forum with it and has no access to the server. The automation of Salarycap Sumo isn't fully completed yet, so he told me to tell you that this beauty of a game will not be held this basho and resume in Kyushu.
  21. This almost certainly will lead to different results, and it has nothing to do with differences between the decades: not everyone enters Juryo at the same skill level relative to others there. If you assign Ichinojo and Mitakeumi the same initial rating upon entering Juryo as Kotoeko and Wakanoshima, you're throwing away a lot of information. While any deviations from their true relative rating will be corrected over time, the cumulative effect is to not be injecting enough points into those rikishi who are far more likely to make it through Juryo and the bottom of Makuuchi and thus depressing ratings in the top of the division. I don't see much of an argument here. The rating for new entrants rather quickly converges to the true rating, most certainly by the time they reach yokozuna, and this actually is the topic of the debate. But I am still bothered (a lot) about the artificial assumption that the average rating of the whole banzuke is 1500 at all times. I assume not only Hakuho and his direct competition is at an all-time high, but also the (for example) rikishi at positions 31 to 40? Actually this is a question at Randomitsuki as well. If this is indeed the case this just means the makuuchi division is (theoretically) beating up the middle of the banzuke better than ever which might well be true. But how do you know this midddle of the banzuke hasn't gotten weaker now than in other times? The structure of rikishi in the deshi ranks is totally different now than decades ago in age and experience, while the makeup of juryo and makuuchi is basically unchanged, but you (by definition even!) declare it the same. Therefore I still like my method better.
  22. I did a quite similar undertaking some years ago (2004, 2005, 2006, 2010) without these nice graphs but with some numbers and not restricted to Yokozunae. Many results are of course similar, with the biggest deviation being that I took only results from juryo and makuuchi as the lower divisions varied so much during the decades that I feel the assumption of a constant average of 1500 is a fallacy possibly leading to bad results. Anyway, I do have Asashoryu behind Taiho, Kitanoumi, Tamanoumi and Chiyonofuji which seems like a good debate coming up. [;)] Hakuho of course is the best yokozuna ever and any argument to put him behind somebody else has to resort to "feeling" or other non-logic, well demonstrated in the other thread.
  23. Doitsuyama

    Juryo promotions for Aki Basho 2015

    Good luck with that! I got it after some initial confusion. And yes, you better be sorry on both accounts. :-)
  24. Doitsuyama

    Games Bugs

    Sumo DB records are fixed now. Results for Hoshitori and Juryo Game look ok now on a first check, congratulations to Smoczayama, the semi-anonymous one for winning Hoshitori in a landslide and also placing fourth in Juryo Game (co-won by Pitinosato and Tenshinhan).
  25. New makuuchi rikishi just shouldn't start at 1500. They aren't falling from heaven but coming up from juryo and the most likely true rating of a new makuuchi rikishi is the lowest makuuchi level, i.e. about 1250? Hidenoumi at 1500 is a joke to put this bluntly. The ratings also seem to be off in many cases, and just don't look like they would give good predictions. Can you add the predicted results for this basho? Also, changing ratings after each bout actually is much better as strength changes between basho get reflected during the basho (good for daily games) and not after when it's just too late. That's not your goal I believe and for you it should be sufficient going basho by basho.