Asashosakari

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Posts posted by Asashosakari


  1. 1 hour ago, themistyseas said:

    If a shisho recruits 3 nailed on sekitori and then 10 guys who everyone knows are destined to be tsukebito to the 3 sekitori, does that mean his hit rate is 23%? Or does it just mean that he understands the needs of how to run and support a heya and is able to find people who can be pieces in that support structure?

    Most of Hakuho's very recent recruiting strategy would indicate he's looking for big hitters and those who don't make it can support the ones that do, but it will be fascinating to see what the churn rate is on the guys that don't make the salaried ranks, especially if they're being recruited with some degree of hype and then end up servants to the guys they thought were their peers.

    Onoe-beya comes to mind as a stable that lacked any sort of a tsukebito support structure - at one point shortly after the stable's creation it had four sekitori, two obvious sekitori-to-be, and only two rikishi likely to remain bound to the lower ranks. And it didn't really get that much better over time, outside of the stable losing three of its sekitori-experienced rikishi in the yaocho scandal and reducing its tsukebito needs that way unintentionally.  Of course, a key difference to Hakuho's Miyagino-beya is that Onoe "only" had a strong recruiting pipeline for top-tier talent (via Nihon U. in his case), but wasn't the kind of high-profile oyakata who could interest lesser applicants on his name value alone, like a former yokozuna or ozeki does. And the line to Nihon didn't remain open for more than a few years, so no building of a perpetual powerhouse heya.

    But the churn factor may be more relevant anyway. I suspect a big reason that stables like Tamanoi and Sadogatake manage to not only recruit a lot but also hold on to their deshi for a while is that they're running a reasonably upbeat heya atmosphere. I like to think that Hakuho will be on the progressive end of the spectrum as far as that goes, but we used to think that about Takanohana-beya at one point, too, and that one turned out to be more on the hellhole end by most accounts.

    • Like 1

  2. 16 hours ago, themistyseas said:

    I know it's dangerous in a thread about Hakuho/Miyagino to evoke T*k*n*h*n* (and this isn't quite the same suggestion) but, as an extension of this, do we also think that it may help or suit that aim to snipe a couple of heya from other ichimon to come join his ichimon? There seem to be an awful lot of traditional tatsunami-isegahama kabu that have migrated elsewhere in recent years.

    It doesn't seem like it would be hard to see the benefits of that if you're a shisho who is somewhat isolated in that your top recruits will benefit from being able to go do degeiko with the best young talent in the sport. But also I don't know so much about the other ichimon goings-on apart from the administrative/political stuff we hear about.

    I dunno. The Hakkaku era seems to have been one of restoration of the traditional peace and quiet behind the scenes, so I don't really see stables changing ichimon anymore. Maybe the way Shikihide-beya did, as part of an off-ichimon successor taking over, but that's about it.


  3. 6 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

    It came together surprisingly easy once you applied a certain method to this madness, but of course it's far from certain that it's the correct method and the correct madness.

    I had the same impression. As earlier comments alluded to, Ichiyamamoto's record is probably the biggest wildcard in how they treat it. (I suspect he's way too high where I've currently slotted him in.)


  4. Hakuho's best bet might be to keep making lots of sekitori, not only to demonstrate that Miyagino is the most relevant heya in the ichimon regardless of Isegahama-oyakata being the titular head, but also to get the group as a whole back to a point - in 10-15 years when his first-wave guys are done competing - where they have enough oyakata to reliably elect two riji again...

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  5. 1 hour ago, Sakura said:

    I don't know if I'm going to have time to do one this time around. I'm still jet-lagged and the Summer is busy.

    I didn't particpate last September and I don't want to have not participating affect my ranking.

    From the GTB website we have the following:

     

    The first kyujo has no effect on the ranking points - it will be treated as kosho. If you are absent consecutively for two bashos, the second kyujo counts as a zero. If you are absent consecutively for three bashos, the second and the third kyujo counts as a zero et cetera. After missing seven bashos in a row you will be unranked.

    Since I have not been absent since last year I am hoping that two absences in a 12-month span will be ok.

    Could people in the know confirm or not if that I will not lose any points if I am absent.

    Only back-to-back absences result in a zero-point score.

    • Like 1

  6. 2 hours ago, Tiger Tanaka said:

    Maybe a highlight of ones to watch similar to what Tachiai does before and after each basho.

    I strongly doubt that a Kyokai-supported initiative will be spotlighting anything or anyone below juryo. Not because it would target a niche audience, but because it goes against the whole "you're only somebody once you're a sekitori" ethos.

    • Like 2

  7. I mean...

    Tsunenohana 14 years (retired 1930 -> rijicho at age 47, 1944-1957)

    Futabayama 12 years (retired 1945 -> rijicho at age 45, 1957-1968) - died in office

    Dewanohana 28 years (retired 1940 -> rijicho at age 59, 1968-1974) - stop-gap candidate after Futabayama's death

    Tochinishiki 14 years (retired 1960 -> rijicho at age 48, 1974-1988)

    Wakanohana 26 years (retired 1962 -> rijicho at age 59, 1988-1992) - transitional candidate, same generation as Tochinishiki

    Sadanoyama 24 years (retired 1968 -> rijicho at age 53, 1992-1998) - retired due to lack of confidence

    Yutakayama 30 years (retired 1968 -> rijicho at age 60, 1998-2002) - stop-gap candidate after Sadanoyama's loss of confidence

    Kitanoumi 17 years (retired 1985 -> rijicho at age 48, 2002-2008) - retired due to marijuana scandal of heya's rikishi

    Mienoumi 28 years (retired 1980 -> rijicho at age 60, 2008-2010) - stop-gap candidate after Kitanoumi's retirement, retired himself due to health issues

    Kaiketsu 31 years (retired 1979 -> rijicho at age 62, 2010-2012) - stop-gap candidate after Mienoumi's retirement

    Kitanoumi again 2012-2015 - died in office

    Hokutoumi 23 years (retired 1992 -> rijicho at age 52, 2015-now)

    Generally speaking, it's only the transitional and emergency candidates who had to wait a long time, and it can't really be called "wait" anyway since most of them weren't actually expected to ever get the post.

    The obvious candidates have all become chairman in their late 40s or early 50s. The same is likely going to be true for whoever out of Kisenosato/Kakuryu/Hakuho gets to become rijicho in the mid-2030s, making for a wait of under 20 years for him.

    Hakkaku right now is kind of a weird case since he's both a stop-gap and a young rijicho, as a combination of a very early retirement from the dohyo, Kitanoumi's death opening up the position two and a half years early, and the obvious successor candidate Takanohana flaming out (he'd have been 45 at the time of Kitanoumi's expected 2018 retirement).

    • Like 3

  8. The true test for Hokuseiho won't come until he regularly has to contend with heavy-duty pushers like Chiyotairyu, Aoiyama or Tamawashi. Mitoryu also manages to make himself look very heavy in yotsu, but becomes very light when put under pressure and forced to be mobile.

    • Like 4

  9. 10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    At the risk of opening a can of worms, what was SumoTalk and what happened to it? 

    In short, the site was a really big deal starting some 20 years ago, because they were the only ones dedicated to writing detailed match summaries in an era when it was very hard to get video coverage unless you either lived in Japan, or paid for TV Japan / NHK World Premium, or were able to align your life schedule with the broadcast of the Kyokai's grainy live stream. People were also doing summaries here and on the old Sumo Mailing List, but only intermittently and not anywhere near as focused as Sumotalk's writers did.

    Unfortunately, their most prolific writers were the type of foreigners-living-in-Japan who think they know everything better than their hosts do, which got expressed in a massive pushing of a Japan / the Kyokai vs. the World narrative in their sumo stuff. That first led to them being some of the world's biggest Asashoryu apologists during his various misadventures, and after he was forced out of sumo, they went off the conspiratorial deep end altogether. At some point their remaining audience became essentially cut off entirely from the rest of the international sumo fandom. I have no idea how much of a following they have these days.

    Around the same time as Asa's exit we also started to get much better video from the Kyokai for free for a few years - ironically because of low popularity (NHK BS ceased broadcasting from jonokuchi to sandanme, so the Kyokai had to step in) as well as scandal (NHK refused to broadcast Nagoya 2010 altogether after the gambling scandal) - which probably contributed to Sumotalk's marginalization over time. Since they were mentioned as a modern-day version: For as good as Tachiai's written tournament coverage is, relative to the overall "marketplace" of sumo content, Sumotalk was a much, much bigger player in its heyday.

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  10. I came close to drawing the Sumotalk comparison maybe a year and a half ago on Reddit but thought better of it at the last moment, when the Chris Gould hype was at maximum cringe over there (nowadays it has swung way in the opposite direction if anything). The even then already increasingly off the wall opinions combined with the rabid fanbase, it had all the hallmarks of where Sumotalk eventually went - a sizable amount of loyalists, but ignored-to-shunned by nearly all the rest of sumo's fandom. Would be unfortunate if he ended up in that purgatory, but if anything I'm stunned that he seems to be ahead of the schedule I envisioned back then.

    • Like 2

  11. 3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    Also, if Nikkan is correct, that also implies Oshiogawa and Nishonoseki (ex-Kisenosato's, not the current Hanaregoma) have also been hit. Which is odd because I don't recall seeing news that they were hit, which means not every case is being reported nowadays.

    Or they've been tagged with cases referring to rikishi (or personnel) whose infection took place when they were still in Oguruma.

    • Like 1

  12. 8 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

    There's a generation of kids grown up watching him dominate sumo, so I'm wondering it Tottori Johoku will start to become noticeably stronger than, say, Saitama Sakai because the kids who want to become rikishi would rather end up at Miyagino-beya than Sadogatake.

    That sounds like putting the cart before the horse (from the kids' point of view), and I also doubt that either Ishiura senior or Ishiura junior would be recruiting for the school with a "how will Hakuho like this kid in three/seven years" mindset to begin with. It's not like Hakuho would refuse talented applicants from other schools anyway.
     

    Quote

    I'm fairly certain Kokonoe-beya continued to be such a force because of the kids who grew up watching Chiyonofuji.

    Kokonoe-beya wasn't exactly brimming with talent that actually might have grown up watching Chiyonofuji (link). That's only five people who made juryo from the appropriate age groups, including two who just had the proverbial cup of coffee, and they were recruited in the 1980s anyway, so it wasn't Chiyonofuji-as-shisho that drove their decision. And of the other three one more's another 80s recruit (although Tomoefuji apparently was in fact a Chiyonofuji uchideshi, as was Chiyotenzan later on), and Chiyotaikai had little to no interest in sumo growing up; his ja.wiki profile states that he knew who Chiyonofuji was by name, but not much else about either him or Ozumo as a whole.

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  13. 8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

    This is the first time he's KK'ed this high within striking range, though? Previously he's always MKed this high, and his previous KKs weren't anywhere high enough (Ms6, Ms4 with 4-3) to justify promotions, almost even if the bottom of jūryō fell out.

    Not getting to juryo with back-to-back 4-3's in the top 5 ranks is on the unlucky side, though.

    • Like 2

  14. 9 minutes ago, Ack! said:

    Could be they choose to promote rikishi with winning records short of KK and NOT demote those with losing records short of MK.  Everyone is happy that way.

    FWIW, I've considered that possibility for the lower divisions and I suppose there's so much room for generosity in makuuchi this time that it might be feasible there too, but it would make the aforementioned crunch in mid-juryo even worse. That said, I'm not sure about "everybody" when e.g. somebody like Hidenoumi would see himself sail past Tohakuryu even though it's 6-9 vs 3-7.

    • Like 1

  15. 10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    Yes, when there's only one open slot and there's an 8-7 M1e, he gets it.  But what I meant was in relation to what they'll do when they're already making extra Komusubi, as was seen the last time it happened.  If they're already making extra ones, that leads to more being brought in, even those that normally wouldn't be, so long as without the sanyaku barrier they'd have been ranked ahead.

    I see no reason to assume any kind of automatism that would extend to every possible candidate. In the previous case, it was clearly Asanoyama who was lucky to tag along with Hokutofuji, not the other way around.


    Edit: If we had a basho with all-KK sanyaku, M1e 8-7, M1w 10-5, and M2e 9-6, would you seriously expect three extra komusubi to be more likely than two + the M2e getting shuffled to M1e?


  16. 16 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    Actually, another issue with blanket applying this rule is that it would lead to Kotonowaka having a better implied rank/record than Kiribayama, which means that they'd have to consider giving him a sanyaku debut on his shortened schedule, which might be beyond the pale, especially if it meant 5 Komusubi and a difficulty of filling the joi maegashira. 

    I don't really see how that follows, considering they're regularly going against the by-the-numbers rank/record suggested promotions when a M1e kachikoshi is involved (most recently after Haru).

    • Like 1

  17. 5 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

    Ah, yes. No, they definitely can't do anything about what the NSK decides to do with Mitakeumi, but that sure as hell won't stop them from mouthing off, right? There's a good chance some wag is going to say "he should have been demoted with his performance that early" or something - if they had met, of course.

    That sounds more like Kitanofuji babble, not a YDC comment.


  18. 1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

    Like Yamanashi said, just because they can't do anything about it doesn't mean they can't talk about it.

    You're talking about something completely different now, qualitative comments about ozeki performance that already happened. I was responding specifically to this part:

    1 hour ago, Yarimotsu said:

    And since he didn't clear it, I think they have to say he remains kadoban.

    That implied that it's somehow for the YDC to determine what Mitakeumi's fate ought to be going forward. If you've got any prior examples of them attempting to interfere with the banzuke-making like that, I'm all ears.


  19. 23 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

    Well they can discuss it, right? They seem to discuss ozeki regardless of Yokozuna chances.

    What exactly do you expect them to discuss about it? "Member 1: The Kyokai will have Mitakeumi stay kadoban now, is that how it works? --- Member 2: Ayup, I guess so..." As an internal rules question for the Kyokai it's absolutely not the YDC's remit, so there's nothing meaningful that they could contribute to the topic even in a theoretical manner.


  20. Astonishingly, LKS managed to escape the Covid carnage completely unscathed, at least for this basho. We did have five rikishi from stables that were unable to get through the entire tournament, but Nakaishi (Hanaregoma) and Kototaiga (Sadogatake) were absent from the start, while Nishikigi (Isenoumi, KK), Daishoki (Oitekaze, MK) and Kototakuya (Sadogatake, MK) all reached a gameplay-relevant outcome before their respective exits. Nakaishi's full kyujo was particularly fortunate for the game as his stable was among the first to withdraw and short of a 4-0 or 0-4 start he wouldn't have made it as an active competitor.

    Full results shortly.

    I do dread having to figure out who qualifies as a rikishi on a KK streak for the next few tournaments, however...

    • Like 1

  21. 51 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

    I agree, the only real conversation they can have is whether mitakeumi remains kadoban. And since he didn't clear it, I think they have to say he remains kadoban.

    That would be a rather novel development if the YDC were to decide who's kadoban and who isn't...

    • Like 2