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Posts posted by Asashosakari

  1. BTW, while @Katooshu will have a much better handle on the situation, I'm guessing this shouldn't be interpreted as "there are no overall good sumotori under 100 kg in high school". It's probably more likely that the good ones among them mostly focused on the main event and just didn't bother with the extra weight class competition, which further taints how meaningful the results from those actually are.

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  2. Since I'm looking it up anyway... 11 participants from the 80 kg bracket and 15 from the 100's were also present in the main tournament. (I'd say this double-dipping opportunity is another reason why those brackets shouldn't be tsukedashi-eligible, but I digress.) Here's how they did; weight class result first, open result second:


    80 kg (x11):
    Semifinalist -> passed prelims (3-0), reached Last 16
    Last 16 -> passed prelims (2-1), out first knockout match
    Last 16 -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Last 16 -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Last 32 -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Last 32 -> out in prelims (1-2)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)

    100 kg (x15):
    Winner -> passed prelims (3-0), reached Last 32
    Runner-up -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Semifinalist -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Semifinalist -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Quarterfinalist -> passed prelims (2-1), reached Last 32
    Last 16 -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Last 32 -> out in prelims (1-2)
    Last 32 -> out in prelims (1-2)
    out first match -> out in prelims (1-2)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)
    out first match -> out in prelims (0-3)

    For completeness I'll mention that the main event's knockout brackets had 66 qualifiers from the original 142, so Last 64 was the first match there for the four kids that made it through.

    So, yeah. Can't be equated in standard at all.

    48 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

    Makes sense since ozumo is one big open weight brawl and haul

    Weight class events on the collegiate circuit were briefly eligible for makushita tsukedashi in the early 1990s, but they quickly reconsidered that.

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  3. 39 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

    Winning 80kg or 100kg definitely should NOT earn anyone a SdTD.

    I never really concerned myself with them before, but yeah, looking them up on the results site I see they're totally different from the main event, both in number of participants (just 45 and 44 versus 142), and in the format used (straight knockout, as opposed to the long-form prelims + knockout format they use for important tournaments).

    If I'm right that this only came up because somebody was looking for a loophole, I wonder which shisho we should point and laugh at in a few weeks. 

  4. Jiji Press's phrasing is a bit odd there, but as far as I can tell it just means that the Kyokai has affirmed that only the "main" national high school tournament counts for SdTd purposes, not the weight-limited brackets that also run as part of the overall event. They probably got a request/inquiry pertaining to an upcoming shindeshi who did well in those this year.

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  5. 1 hour ago, Oskanohana said:

    As a side note, both fellas have the dubious honor of having won a yusho in Juryo and not having made it to least yet. From the current juryo crop Oshoma is the other one that fits the bill. I don't know how to realistically make the query easily in the database, but there shouldn't be many juryo yusho winners that didn't make it past the division, especially since the size reduction to twenty-something.

    We've got you covered.

    If Oshoma bullies his way out of ozumo sometime soon, he could become the first juryo yusho winner to neither go to makuuchi nor to makushita afterwards.

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  6. Since there's speculation about it in the juryo promotion thread and my own guess that I drafted on Sunday actually does what's considered unlikely there :-P here's what it presumably would have to look like if they try to retain some semblance of by-the-numbersness in lower juryo:

    Daiamami (J4e 9-6)      J1   Mitoryu (J4w 9-6)
    Nishikifuji (M16w 6-9)  J2   Tohakuryu (M15e 5-10)
    Roga (M16e 5-10)        J3   Kotoeko (M10w 2-8-5)
    Kitanowaka (M17e 5-10)  J4   Tamashoho (J7w 9-6)
    Chiyoshoma (J6e 8-7)    J5   Oshoma (J3w 6-9)
    Kagayaki (J3e 5-10)     J6   Tokihayate (J8w 8-7)
    Takahashi (J9e 8-7)     J7   Shishi (J5w 6-9)
    Shimanoumi (J12e 9-6)   J8   Shiden (J12w 9-6)
    Asakoryu (J13w 9-6)     J9   Takerufuji (Ms1w 6-1)
    Daishoho (J7e 5-10)     J10  Hakuyozan (Ms1e 4-3)
    Oshoumi (Ms2w 4-3)      J11  Tochimusashi (Ms3e 4-3)
    Hidenoumi (J11w 6-7-2)  J12  Chiyomaru (J8e 4-7-4)
    Yuma (J13e 7-8)         J13  Akua (J10e 5-10)
    Chiyosakae (J14e 7-8)   J14  Tenshoho (J10w 5-10)

    That aside: Not many differences to Gurowake's draft. Kotoeko/Roga flipped, Kagayaki two spots higher, and Takerufuji in front of Daishoho rather than behind.

    That J2e-J4e block sticks out to me. If that actually comes to pass, I wonder how often all demotees from the maegashira ranks have ended up in one block when there are that many of them.

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  7. Day 15

    With the yusho decided, the finishing touches were put on the Kyushu LKS by the two remaining KK/MK decisions: Gonoyama secured a last-minute KK in his maegashira-joi debut, while Tomokaze's four-years-in-the-making top division return unfortunately ended in makekoshi. That did not look likely when he was 5-2 entering the middle Sunday...

    In the end, three players finished the basho in jun-yusho position.

    The final standings:

    Day 15:
    17/17 Decisions, TB 11
    Pos Player Pts TB
    1 chishafuwaku 12 16
    2 Bunbukuchagama 10 23
    2 Profomisakari 10 17
    2 Tetsuba 10 20
    5 Asashosakari 9 16
    5 ryafuji 9 16
    5 Yarimotsu 9 18
    8 Hakuryuho 8 19
    8 Sakura 8 18
    8 WAKATAKE 8 18
    11 Athenayama 7 19

    Those last two results were not what the two players in the middle of the Day 14 standings had ordered. Makekoshi it is.

    The less said about the tie-breaker, the better.

    The new ballot for Hatsu 2024:

     1. Hoshoryu       12
     2. Kotonowaka     11
        Roga           10
        Asanoyama       8
     3. Takahashi       9*
     4. Oshoumi         9
        Wakamotoharu    7
     5. Gonoyama        7
        Tomokaze        6
        Tenshoho        6
     6. Takerufuji      7*
        Kyokutaisei     6
     7. Daieisho        6
        Shishi          5
     8. Daiseizan       6
        Kotosato        5*
     9. Atamifuji       5
        Kitanowaka      4
    10. Satorufuji      5*
    11. Wakaikari       5*
    12. Onosato         4*

    Not many newcomers, but the three we're getting are all very interesting. Wakamotoharu exits, leaving us with three sanyaku-ranked rikishi for the game. Maybe Gonoyama or Atamifuji will bolster the ranks for March?

    The 12-name ballot is the shortest we'll have played since Kyushu 2019 which had only 9. (There have been several with 13 since then, though, so the upcoming one isn't as much of an outlier as that one was.)

  8. Via Nikkan Sports who are first to publish the retirement list this time around, comprising 7 rikishi.

    Chiyoshishi (Kokonoe) - that thing...
    Kototakuya (Sadogatake)
    Daijo (Takadagawa)
    Tamanowaka (Tamanoi)
    Itoga (Sakaigawa)
    Kirizakura (Michinoku) - danpatsu took place after Aki basho
    Raikisho (Tokiwayama)

    Kirizakura gone officially now after it was already known but not acknowledged two months ago. He was the 18th-oldest active rikishi at the end of his tenure.

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  9. New:
    Takerufuji - Ms1w 6-1, Isegahama-beya, Aomori, 24 years old
    Oshoumi - Ms2w 4-3, Naruto-beya, Ishikawa, 22 years old

    Hakuyozan - Ms1e 4-3, Takadagawa-beya, Yamagata, 28 years old, 5th promotion, back after 1 basho
    Tochimusashi - Ms3e 4-3, Kasugano-beya, Saitama, 24 years old, 2nd promotion, back after 4 basho


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  10. 1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

    #R = number of Y/O rikishi on the matching banzuke (refers to either the up to or the prev to if only one matches, otherwise to both)

    Hmm. I just realized that I took something for granted that isn't actually true. It's possible that the Y/O count might actually differ between the up to and the prev to, even though both banzuke fulfill the all-winners criteria, namely in case a rikishi who has won retires or joins, leaving the lineup's all-win quality intact.

    Edit: Table corrected (in a less than pretty way, but oh well).

  11. It was easier to generalize this, so I checked it for any 6-basho period. :-P I tested for two different things: a) last six yusho winners up to and including the basho of the banzuke (e.g. winners from 2023.01-2023.11 include all Y/O on the 2023.11 banzuke), and b) last six previous yusho winners (e.g. winners from 2023.01-2023.11 include all Y/O on the 2024.01 banzuke). These can occur separately if a non-winning Y/O retires after the basho, leaving the ranks populated only by winners, or if a non-winning sekiwake gets promoted to ozeki, breaking up an all-winners lineup. (Edit: And it's also possible for them to occur together but with different sets of rikishi, in case a winning Y/O retires or a winning sekiwake gets promoted.)

    #R = number of Y/O rikishi on the matching banzuke (one number = applies to "up to" and "prev to" as cases match; two numbers = first applies to "up to", second to "prev to")
    #Y = number of yusho these Y/O rikishi combined for (ditto)

        6 Yusho      #R  #Y  Up to    Prev to
    1931.05-1932.10   3   4           1933.01
    1969.01-1969.11   5   6  1969.11  1970.01
    1969.03-1970.01   5   6  1970.01  1970.03
    1974.05-1975.03   4   6  1975.03  1975.05
    1974.07-1975.05   4   6  1975.05  1975.07
    1974.09-1975.07   4   5  1975.07  1975.09
    1975.05-1976.03   4   5  1976.03
    1980.05-1981.03   3   5           1981.05
    1980.07-1981.05   3   5  1981.05  1981.07
    1980.09-1981.07   3   5  1981.07  1981.09
    1991.01-1991.11   4   4  1991.11  1992.01
    1992.01-1992.11   2   3           1993.01
    1992.03-1993.01  2/3 4/5 1993.01  1993.03
    1993.01-1993.11   3   6           1994.01
    1993.03-1994.01   3   6  1994.01
    1997.05-1998.03   5   6  1998.03  1998.05
    2020.09-2021.07   4   5           2021.09
    2022.03-2023.01   2   2  2023.01  2023.03
    2022.05-2023.03   2   2  2023.03  2023.05
    2022.07-2023.05  2/3 2/3 2023.05  2023.07
    2022.09-2023.07  3/4 3/4 2023.07  2023.09
    2022.11-2023.09   4   5  2023.09  2023.11
    2023.01-2023.11   4   6  2023.11  2024.01

    It has never been done by a group of 6 Y/O, but a group of 5 has done it in 5 tournaments (1969.03-1969.11).

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  12. 12 minutes ago, Reonito said:

    Ah, I'd looked at 5-2's ranked Ms13-Ms16 so missed Otsuji. That was the first time in quite a few instances someone ranked below Ms12 got into the promotion zone with a 5-2, so I guess it comes down to Hakuoho/Hatsuyama/Kitadaichi, and they have plenty of discretion to pick whomever they want from the trio. Anyway, it's going to be a spicy promotion battle!

    I could honestly also see Hitoshi given a bigger parachute than I did there, so that's another potential candidate for the last spot. Putting him before Hakuoho would go against the numbers, but I don't think they would consider it indefensible (see Fujiseiun vs Chiyonoumi recently).

    Actually, now that I'm looking at that I'm left to wonder if Fujiseiun's non-appearance at Ms5e might have played a role in Wakatakakage not getting a top 5 position two months later.

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  13. 46 minutes ago, Reonito said:

    So if I counted right, it comes down to Hakuoho vs. Kitadaichi for the final spot. Thoughts?

    A quickly composed rough attempt:

    Kayo (Ms6w 6-1)         Ms1  Wakatakakage (Ms6e 5-2)
    Tsushimanada (Ms4w 4-3) Ms2  Takakento (J9w 3-12)
    Kitaharima (Ms11e 6-1)  Ms3  Satorufuji (Ms42w 7-0 Y)
    Chiyonoumi (Ms7e 4-3)   Ms4  Kiryuko (Ms8e 4-3)
    Yago (Ms9e 4-3)         Ms5  Hatsuyama (Ms13w 5-2)
    Hakuoho (J6w 0-0-15)    Ms6  Hitoshi (J11e 2-13)

    4 ranks as the 4-3/5-2 equivalent difference seems on par for that area of the banzuke, so Hatsuyama next to Yago wouldn't be out of place (and they pushed Otsuji up all the way from Ms17e last time anyway). Kitadaichi at Ms5w would work, too, but I think the above shows that that's not even strictly necessary to get Hakuoho beyond the top 5.

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  14. 2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

    Ms4w - Chiyonoumi, Hakuoho(??? - This is surely wrong based on where Wakatakakage ended up last time, but this is where my system puts him.  The system is clearly wrong, but I don't have the desire to investigate how the system should change, so I'm stuck being wrong.)

    After I thought Wakatakakage would be slotted in way higher than they ended up doing, I'm inclined to expect Hakuoho at the same Ms6e. With WTK it looked to me like a crappy "let's not make it too easy for him" thing at first, but with some emotional distance I now wonder if they did it exactly because they're putting such a premium on being ranked in the top 5 if a rikishi wants to be promoted. If, as the committee, you're not sure at all that the injured guy you're about to send out of juryo will actually stage his return in the next basho, maybe you're thinking "we should give these valuable 10 spots to rikishi who can actually make use of them"?

    And so, considering Hakuoho's return for January appears to be even more iffy than WTK's was for this month...

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  15. 18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

    I just realized* that this system they have for deciding in the next two months who gets a nice salary and who's left without a salary seems rather arbitrary, where they can and will make decisions that cost rikishi a good amount of money solely based on their own opinions, rather than any hard-and-fast set of rules, at least as far as we can tell.  When it comes to promotions and relegations in most professional sports, people's opinions of the team/player strengths I don't think have anything to do with it.  There's a very specific rule for how it works in each of those other sports, and there's no guessing as to what's going to happen, at least from what I've seen.

    Individual athletes aren't collectively employed in other such sports, though. The better comparison to sumo would be some team sport club/franchise where the front office decides which of their contracted minor league players deserves to be called up to the first team. That's no less subjective.

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