Asashosakari

Active Members
  • Content Count

    22,948
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    312

Everything posted by Asashosakari

  1. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2022

    Day 13 Entering the basho home stretch with three new results. Wakamotoharu continues his ascent from upper juryo to upper makuuchi regular, freshly renamed mostly-sandanme veteran Ryuo (Tatsukaze until last basho) posts his 7th straight kachikoshi, and collegiate rookie Miyagi reaches the end of his debut KK streak. All of these results defied the majority predictions, Miyagi's even left egg on our faces unanimously. Honma also finished things up, but with his last minute MK he won't be joining the Nagoya ballot. Day 13: 8/13 Decisions, TB 8-15 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Athenayama 5 11 1 chishafuwaku 5 12 1 Rocks 5 11 4 Asashosakari 4 11 4 WAKATAKE 4 12 6 Chartorenji 4 13 6 Mmikasazuma 4 13 8 Sakura 4 15 9 Profomisakari 3 13 10 Hakuryuho 3 14 11 Yarimotsu 2 13 Fully eight players - everybody on 4+ points - still had a theoretical chance to win the yusho at this point, albeit with vastly different likelihoods. (Asashosakari even needed an assist by the torikumi committee, in that victory was only possible if Wakatakakage and Abi would not face each other on senshuraku...)
  2. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2022

    Day 11 Nothing to report on or off the ballot. Day 12 Another missed target in sanyaku, this time for Wakatakakage after his sixth defeat. The off-ballot squad nearly completed its LKS-relevant action already, with youngster Suzuki earning a return trip to LKS - he had started his career with 9 straight KK three years ago - while ex-juryo veteran Chiyonoumi fell short of kachikoshi to miss a likely return to the paid ranks, and youngish Hokutoryu went makekoshi sidelined by injury. Only Honma's fate remained undecided at 3-3. Day 12: 5/13 Decisions, TB 6-17 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Asashosakari 4 11 1 Athenayama 4 11 1 chishafuwaku 4 12 1 Rocks 4 11 5 Chartorenji 4 13 6 Sakura 4 15 7 WAKATAKE 3 12 8 Mmikasazuma 2 13 8 Profomisakari 2 13 10 Hakuryuho 2 14 11 Yarimotsu 1 13
  3. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2022

    Day 10 And finally somebody managed to stay on the ballot. Rookies Kiryuko and Nobehara are not done KK'ing yet, and complete a year of upwardly mobile records. Another rikishi was once on the ballot as a newcomer as well, but is now five years removed from that - 27-year-old Kainoshima earns his second go at LKS participation courtesy of a fifth straight KK, this one having come to him easier than the other four (which were all last-bout-win 4-3's). Back to over half the field being in the lead, obviously with no perfect scores anymore. Day 10: 4/13 Decisions, TB 5-19 Pos Player Pts TB 1 chishafuwaku 3 12 1 WAKATAKE 3 12 3 Asashosakari 3 11 3 Athenayama 3 11 3 Chartorenji 3 13 3 Rocks 3 11 7 Sakura 3 15 8 Profomisakari 2 13 9 Hakuryuho 2 14 10 Mmikasazuma 1 13 10 Yarimotsu 1 13
  4. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2022

    Day 8 Another 0-4 start outside the ballot, on this day for Narutaki. Day 9 Kitanowaka had been forced to go kyujo on Day 6 with 5 losses to date, so his non-inclusion in the Day 9 torikumi assured his makekoshi for the tournament. On the flipside, the first pair of rikishi decided their promotion onto the ballot for Nagoya basho. Chiyosakae and Mukainakano ran their records to 4-1 and thus achieved KK #5. It didn't take long to get a sole leader this basho: Day 9: 2/13 Decisions, TB 2-19 Pos Player Pts TB 1 WAKATAKE 2 12 2 Asashosakari 1 11 2 Athenayama 1 11 2 Rocks 1 11 5 chishafuwaku 1 12 6 Chartorenji 1 13 6 Mmikasazuma 1 13 8 Hakuryuho 1 14 9 Sakura 1 15 10 Profomisakari 0 13 10 Yarimotsu 0 13
  5. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2022

    Day 7 Ozeki Mitakeumi took a fast path to four losses, so he lost sight of his 12-3 LKS goal in short order. The first off-ballot rikishi also decided his fate before the middle Sunday, unfortunately in negative fashion as well: no fifth straight kachikoshi for Asahabataki. Day 7: 1/13 Decisions, TB 0-21 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Asashosakari 1 11 1 Athenayama 1 11 1 Rocks 1 11 4 chishafuwaku 1 12 4 WAKATAKE 1 12 6 Chartorenji 1 13 6 Mmikasazuma 1 13 8 Hakuryuho 1 14 9 Sakura 1 15 10 Profomisakari 0 13 10 Yarimotsu 0 13
  6. Asashosakari

    Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2022

    The Natsu results, with which we welcome back former yokozuna Mmikasazuma to the game. Player Mita Abi Kamito Ryuo Kita Kiryu Nobe Miyagi W'kage W'haru Koto Nishiki Shima TB Cons Hakuryuho - 11-4 - 8-7 + - + - + + + 10-5 + + - - 14 1.56 chishafuwaku - 11-4 - 8-7 + + + + + + - 9-6 - - - - 12 1.47 Yarimotsu + 12-3 + 9-6 - - + + - + + 10-5 + + - - 13 1.80 Chartorenji - 10-5 - MK - - + + + + - 9-6 - + + + 13 1.37 WAKATAKE - 11-4 + 9-6 + + - - + + + 10-5 - + + - 12 1.85 Sakura - 11-4 - 8-7 + - + + + + - 9-6 - + + - 15 1.23 Athenayama - 11-4 - MK - + + + + + - 9-6 - - - - 11 1.37 Profomisakari + 12-3 + 9-6 - - + + + + + 11-4 + + + - 13 1.64 Mmikasazuma - 11-4 + 9-6 - + + - - + - 9-6 + + - - 13 1.70 Asashosakari - 11-4 - MK - - + + + + - 9-6 - + + + 11 1.37 Rocks - 10-5 - 8-7 - + + + + + - MK - + - - 11 1.12 2:9 4:7 4:7 5:6 10:1 8:3 9:2 11:0 4:7 4:7 9:2 5:6 2:9 Results - - + + - + + - - (KK) + - + - Tricky predictions about Mitakeumi's likely result with most entrants going for 11-4. There were two predictions above and two below, so it was a push for his target record. As usual I used the parity of the sum total of the tie-breaker predictions; 138 being even, 12 wins was chosen as the target over the alternative possibility of 11. Abi's target narrowly escaped the same procedure with four people choosing better than 8 wins and three others worse, so Abi was made to aim for 9 wins. The other sekiwake Wakatakakage proved easier to set on course, going for 10 wins as almost nobody projected fewer than 9 for him. Chartorenji and Asashosakari produced identical ballots, separated only by their tie-breaker picks.
  7. Asashosakari

    Invite for GTB- July (Nagoya) 2022- 155 entries - RESULTS!!

    I mean, that's more an entirely different use case than an upgrade. My helper file has always been geared towards people who prefer to build the new ranking from the old one, rather than directly in an empty slate.
  8. Asashosakari

    Invite for GTB- July (Nagoya) 2022- 155 entries - RESULTS!!

    In case there's some demand for it, I've finally gone back to update the helper spreadsheet again after a couple of years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VnH1QuxGBYnEVO2TZ-cl4CMCLgDEdeN_jI3pETC7Vx4/
  9. Asashosakari

    Sumo Reference Updates

    The head-to-head between Kotokanyu and Kyokushuzan shows a total of 3-1 even though they've only met three times. The interim results after the first two matches are correctly listed as 1-0 and 2-0, but their third meeting shows up when queried for "head-to-head 3-0 before the bout", so Kotokanyu is going from 2-0 to 3-0 in phantom fashion somewhere. Since I ran into this completely at random, I'm now left to wonder if there are any other such unnoticed discrepancies.
  10. Asashosakari

    Trivia bits

    Chiyosakae is the 9th rikishi in history to post five consecutive 5-2 records, and the fourth among them to get promoted to juryo at the end. (The other maximum-length KK streaks: 14x three 7-0, 2x five 6-1, 6x seven 4-3.)
  11. Asashosakari

    Asanoyama's COVID violation suspension and comeback

    It's not exactly unheard of that even very strong high school rookies will pick up an early loss against some random opponent in high sandanme, and I'm not sure he and Asanoyama will be ranked sufficiently close to each other to meet before that's likely to happen. (Leaving aside that it's just 50/50 whether they get to meet early on even if they are ranked close enough.)
  12. Now on https://www.sumo.or.jp/EnTicket/year_schedule/. Hatsu: January 14-28 [banzuke: Monday, December 25] Haru: March 10-24 Natsu: May 12-26 [banzuke: Tuesday, April 30] Nagoya: July 14-28 [banzuke: Monday, June 24] Aki: September 8-22 Kyushu: November 10-24 The banzuke release for Hatsu gets in ahead of the Christmas holidays as usual, and April 29 is a holiday as well so Natsu will come out a day later, but I'm not entirely sure why they've moved up the Nagoya release.
  13. Asashosakari

    Who will join Chiyomaru and Tsurugisho in makuuchi for Nagoya 2022?

    I meant "wisdom of the crowds" in terms of accurately predicting the Kyokai's decision-making; I was hoping the "what do you think is most likely..." phrasing of the poll questions made that clear enough. Of course we could have just waited for people's GTB entries to see who they've sent up to makuuchi in there, but that would only tell us each entrant's top choice and not how close their expectations were overall, hence the poll.
  14. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    I'm saying that you don't appear to have any basis for insinuating that it is relevant besides a subjective feeling of "it oughta be like that". Meanwhile there's plenty of evidence in other recent decisions - I cited Daieisho not getting to be sekiwake after his yusho as one of the more infamous ones - that achieving particular feats of strength beyond the pure win-loss record isn't being considered positively, quite the opposite if anything.
  15. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    You were the one asserting something with your "Thing is..." statement. Meanwhile: They haven't even been engaging in generosity with the likes of Daieisho who was the yusho winner at the time himself. On what basis have you concluded that merely putting dirt on the yusho winner is going to be at all relevant?
  16. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    That's nice, but "can be" is not "are".
  17. Asashosakari

    Who will join Chiyomaru and Tsurugisho in makuuchi for Nagoya 2022?

    The rule in question dates from 1997.
  18. Asashosakari

    Who will join Chiyomaru and Tsurugisho in makuuchi for Nagoya 2022?

    Right, I did bring that up but it honestly feels like too much of a rolling of the dice to actually predict it with something at stake, i.e. in a potential GTB entry, and players' thought processes for that are what I'm trying to get at with this poll. Offering up just the four major possibilities for the voting seemed like the way to go to keep things from being impossible to summarize. (After all, even leaving Chiyomaru or Tsurugisho in juryo technically wouldn't break any protocol, but the line has to be drawn somewhere.) That being said, if somebody does predict Nishikifuji over Daiamami or something other than four promotions in GTB, and it turns out right, I'll be first in line to be all about it.
  19. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    Juryo -> Makuuchi promotion poll!
  20. Asashosakari

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    I'm not sure if it was as formalized as today (especially in the lack of discretion for the committee), but ja.wiki says that back-to-back makekoshi was normally the demotion criterion from the 1927 beginning of the modern era until the expansion to six annual tournaments, and the record seems to bear that out: demotion or intai after all double MK (and no case of a triple MK), and no demotions after a single MK. (I've started the queries at 1932 rather than 1927 to avoid the weird stuff they did the first few years with multiple basho results counting for one banzuke-making, and the like.)
  21. Asashosakari

    Trivia bits

    Sadanoumi has now tied Dejima for 4th place by scoring his second kanto-sho 47 tournaments after the first. (Sanspo brought it to my attention, although they've messed up the numbers by claiming Sadanoumi is one basho short of Dejima, probably confusing the gap for the interval.)
  22. Asashosakari

    Trivia bits

    The lack of a gino-sho in Natsu basho has terminated a streak of 9 consecutive tournaments that saw the prize awarded. That was the longest run with gino-sho since Kyushu 2008 to Haru 2010 (also nine tournaments).
  23. Asashosakari

    Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

    Not yusho+yusho, but there has been an ozeki who became yokozuna with the next two results after a makekoshi (in 15-bout tournaments): Link
  24. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    Same. I'd have it as: Takakento (J14e 7-8) Ms1 Kinbozan (Ms4w 5-2) Kanno (Ms6e 5-2) Ms2 Roga (Ms4e 4-3) Tomokaze (Ms10w 6-1) Ms3 Daishomaru (J11w 4-11) Kamito (Ms5w 4-3) Ms4 Chiyoarashi (J13e 4-11) Chiyonoumi (Ms1e 3-4) Ms5 Shohozan (J12e 3-12) Coinflips on Ms2e/w and Ms3e/w, the others I'm feeling more confident about in their respective positions (which doesn't mean much).
  25. Asashosakari

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

    I must admit I've been hoping to see a yusho outcome like Daiamami/Nishikifuji's for a while, because so far the post-1997 playoff re-ranking rule has never been tested for two rikishi at the same numerical rank outside sanyaku, in any division. There have been 5 playoffs contested by rikishi at the same rank where one of them won the yusho*, but in all previous ones it was the East side guy as the winner. * i.e. disregarding playoffs where both finished runner-up to somebody else, since those are of course irrelevant to the topic. The five playoffs: 2011.01 juryo, 2016.11 jonokuchi, 2017.01 jonidan, 2021.01 jonokuchi, 2021.05 jonokuchi I do expect Daiamami to stay ahead of Nishikifuji, but there's no actual precedent to cite.