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Everything posted by Asashosakari

  1. Even with Shotenro still a borrower, it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see the Dewanoumi group gobble up the Nishikijima share eventually.
  2. As there's widespread consternation over the upcoming promotions from juryo to makuuchi for Nagoya basho, here's a poll about them. Or rather, an attempt at sourcing the wisdom of the crowds to see how that stacks up against the Kyokai's decision-making. Simplifying assumptions: There are going to be four promotions, replacing eminently demotable Azumaryu, Ishiura, Kotokuzan and Kagayaki, but no additional ones pulling down borderline Yutakayama and Oho. Chiyomaru J1e 8-7 and Tsurugisho J2w 10-5 are guaranteed to be among the four rikishi getting promoted. It's impossible for Nishikifuji to get promoted without Daiamami. That leaves four possible options in selecting the remaining two promotions: Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 and Ryuden J3w 9-6 are going up, Daiamami and Nishikifuji are staying down Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 and Daiamami J6e 11-4 are going up, Ryuden and Nishikifuji are staying down Ryuden J3w 9-6 and Daiamami J6e 11-4 are going up, Hidenoumi and Nishikifuji are staying down Daiamami J6e 11-4 and Nishikifuji J6w 11-4 are going up, Hidenoumi and Ryuden are staying down All of these have something to recommend them, especially in light of Hidenoumi and Ryuden's recent suspension business. Consequently, the poll consists of three questions with identical choices offered, namely these four alternatives, asking which of them you consider the most likely, second-most likely, and third-most likely outcome, respectively.* Please take care not to vote for the same choice in multiple blocks, and please do respond to all three blocks even if you feel very strongly about just one or two possibilities. I've set the poll votes to public in order to be able to recognize inconsistent votes, so if you're not okay with that (particularly in regards to your GTB fortunes), please either do not vote or wait until the GTB deadline has passed. If you think this is all nonsense because they've decided to promote five or even all six guys, feel free to vote anyway, but please consider if you're actually serious about it as a mental exercise at least and abstain if you're not. If you think there are going to be fewer than four promotions, I honestly don't know what to tell you. Assuming this thing actually attracts interest from more than just three or four people, I'm going to tally up the results ahead of the banzuke release. The poll will be closing 48 hours before the new banzuke is made public. * I wanted to make it explicit and include a fourth block for your least likely outcome to select as well, but polls are restricted to three questions. It's still going to be implied that the one option that didn't make it into your top 3 is the one you consider least likely, of course.
  3. Asashosakari

    Sports Gambling In Japan

    That article appears to be full of crap and besides implying things about sportsbetting in Japan that plainly aren't true, it either intentionally or unintentionally blurs the line between "sports in Japan that people [not necessarily Japanese] bet on" and "sports [not necessarily in Japan] that Japanese people bet on". Well, at least one person believed it, so job done I guess.
  4. Asashosakari

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    It's not like their creativity in that era stopped at not promoting 8-7's.
  5. Asashosakari

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    I had pretty much that, just with the J13's flipped. Might as well mention here that my juryo guess (did I post it?) has a whopping 7 ranks that are East-West flipped from the real thing (J1-4, J7-8, J13). The only other error was putting Tochimaru in front of Ishiura and Kaisei rather than behind them, so in GTB terms that would have been 11 twos, 15 ones and 2 zeros...
  6. Asashosakari

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    Hands up, who saw Hidenoumi getting stuck at J1w coming?
  7. Asashosakari

    Invite for GTB- July (Nagoya) 2022- 155 entries - RESULTS!!

    67 here. Nishikigi/Shimanoumi and Tsurugisho/Onosho for me, too, plus a rather suboptimal maegashira-joi (Takanosho/Ichinojo for -4, Ura/Wakamotoharu/Takayasu for -5).
  8. Asashosakari

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    Makushita Sandanme Jonidan Jonokuchi (New shikona in red.)
  9. Asashosakari

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    Makushita-joi Takakento Ms1 Kinbozan Roga Ms2 Kanno Tomokaze Ms3 Daishomaru Kamito Ms4 Chiyonoumi Chiyoarashi Ms5 Shohozan Akiseyama Ms6 Tsukahara Tsushimanada Ms7 Kotoyusho Fujiseiun Ms8 Hamayutaka Kainoshima Ms9 Tsurubayashi Tochikamiyama Ms10 Oshoryu Tochiseiryu Ms11 Kitaharima Hakuyozan Ms12 Shiden Oki Ms13 Yutakasho Shishi Ms14 Fukai Shonannoumi Ms15 Suzuki
  10. Asashosakari

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    Juryo Ryuden J1 Hidenoumi Azumaryu J2 Tohakuryu Kagayaki J3 Daishoho Asanowaka J4 Mitoryu Chiyonokuni J5 Tokushoryu Atamifuji J6 Bushozan Akua J7 Kotokuzan Hiradoumi J8 Enho Kaisho J9 Churanoumi Shimazuumi J10 Ishiura Kaisei J11 Tochimaru Kitanowaka J12 Yago Oshoma J13 Hokuseiho Chiyosakae J14 Gonoyama
  11. Sadly, it's probably just the logical extension of how it has always worked. I've read stories before of oyakata being 'pursuaded' monetarily to retire a bit early (i.e. before 65 then). The interesting part here is indeed that the 5 extra years appear to be treated as a full-on entitlement now.
  12. (quote transferred from the Shohozan intai thread) Also, a revealing comment from that article if true (and I personally don't doubt that it is): "The oyakata salary during the age 65-70 re-employment period equals 70% of the previous salary, totalling about 40 million ¥ across the five years. When the kabu is given up at age 65, the acquirer faces a bigger challenge because that amount will have to be covered by him [in addition to what he's paying to get the kabu in any case]."
  13. Asashosakari

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    But isn't that exactly where something like the Kyushu 2019 GTB shows that a lot of entrants still expect more generous promotions than there are going to be? I would say that nearly all of the "big" GTB players would have been very surprised by more than two sekiwake back then, yet nearly a quarter of the field had 3 or 4 of them anyway. The observed stinginess was hardly a new phenomenon anymore even three years ago. That's why it's rarely a good idea to a priori limit the analysis to just the komusubi. (And I'd argue that it's likely to be a sizable share this time too, despite even less justification for 3+, since GTB is currently going through a popularity spell and the quality of the average entry tends to drop whenever the game gets a lot of more casual players.)
  14. Asashosakari

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    My original objection was effectively what Gurowake has since described. Yes, your counts were correct, but they were the answer to a question that wasn't very meaningful to begin with and, like Gurowake, I doubted that that was the question Seiyashi was intending to have answered in bringing up Kyushu 2019.
  15. Asashosakari

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    Of course it does, since players who created additional sekiwake almost certainly would have created further additional komusubi otherwise. Anyway, disregarding the 6 players who had the wrong number of ozeki: 4 lower sanyaku: 41 players 5 lower sanyaku: 43 players (2S+3K: 26, 3S+2K: 17) 6 lower sanyaku: 10 players (2S+4K: 7, 3S+3K: 2, 4S+2K: 1) The 4 players who didn't promote Takakeisho to ozeki (= 1 excess lower sanyaku) had 4+2 (twice) and 3+3 (twice), the 2 players who didn't demote Tochinoshin (= 1 too few lower sanyaku) had 2+2 and 2+3. (There was also a player who inexplicably demoted Takayasu and promoted Mitakeumi, but at least their ozeki count was correct that way... They're included among the 94 players of the main summary.)
  16. Asashosakari

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    That basho also had plenty of people going for more than two sekiwake, though, so not like the komusubi counts alone are all that meaningful.
  17. I can't find it anymore now, but a year or two back I came across a scholarly article by a Japanese employment expert (can't remember if lawyer or academic) that put the sanyo system into the context of Japan-wide efforts to retain older, experienced members of the work force for longer to deal with the effects of the country's aging society, and suggested that the Kyokai's approach could serve as a model to other Japanese businesses who are still on the fence about instituting such measures. That author certainly appeared to consider it to be a general employment extension system, not just one for exceptional contributors.
  18. Asashosakari

    Invite for GTB- July (Nagoya) 2022- 155 entries - RESULTS!!

    I had Chiyomaru in front of both J6's initially, but that just seemed so odd in relation to where Hidenoumi will go if he's not promoted. Of course, that kind of thing has never stopped them before, so I fully expect to have wasted 5 points there at the last moment.
  19. Asashosakari

    Invite for GTB- July (Nagoya) 2022- 155 entries - RESULTS!!

    Terunofuji (Ye 12-3 Y) Y --- Takakeisho (O2w 8-7) O1 Mitakeumi (O1e 6-9) --- O2 Shodai (O1w 5-10) Wakatakakage (Se 9-6) S Daieisho (Kw 11-4) Hoshoryu (Ke 8-7) K Abi (Sw 7-8) Kiribayama (M2e 10-5) M1 Ichinojo (M1w kosho) Kotonowaka (M2w 9-6) M2 Takanosho (M4w 11-4) Tamawashi (M3w 9-6) M3 Takayasu (M1e 6-9) Ura (M6e 9-5-1) M4 Wakamotoharu (M6w 9-6) Endo (M4e 7-8) M5 Sadanoumi (M12w 11-4) Aoiyama (M11e 10-5) M6 Tobizaru (M5w 7-8) Okinoumi (M10e 9-6) M7 Hokutofuji (M3e 5-10) Tochinoshin (M9w 8-7) M8 Shimanoumi (M8e 7-8) Nishikigi (M10w 8-7) M9 Kotoeko (M7w 6-9) Chiyotairyu (M13e 8-7) M10 Meisei (M13w 8-7) Kotoshoho (M9e 6-9) M11 Midorifuji (M16w 9-6) Terutsuyoshi (M8w 5-10) M12 Takarafuji (M7e 4-11) Ichiyamamoto (M15w 8-7) M13 Chiyoshoma (M11w 6-9) Myogiryu (M12e 6-9) M14 Onosho (M5e 2-4-9) Tsurugisho (J2w 10-5) M15 Oho (M14e 6-9) Yutakayama (M14w 6-9) M16 Daiamami (J6e 11-4 D) Nishikifuji (J6w 11-4 Y) M17 Chiyomaru (J1e 8-7)
  20. Asashosakari

    Sumo Reference Updates

    It happened again. Starring: Aratama (pre-modern makushita rikishi without a DB entry) Tomohibiki (pre-modern makushita rikishi with a placeholder entry due to kabu relevance) [] Kiyosegawa Shikishima (not the one who's currently an oyakata) and the Tateyama, Isegahama and Kumagatani shares along with affiliated stables. [Relevant links: T-kabu, T-beya, K-kabu, K-beya] The culprit this time was an attempt to figure out when the old (pre-Asahifuji) Isegahama-beya was actually founded. Here's how it apparently went (issues of interest for the DB marked as such): Tomohibiki was a not overly successful rikishi, but one married to his shisho Tomozuna's niece and thus with an "in" towards a future oyakata career. Already 31 years old, for the February 1911 tournament he was promoted to makushita for the first and, it turned out, last time, as he promptly retired from the dohyo having fulfilled that era's kabu eligibility criterion. (Current DB status: His kabu starting date is given only vaguely as "after 1909" instead of 1911.02.) He became Tateyama-oyakata, taking on a share that had been vacant for a couple of years after the death of the previous holder, another former Tomozuna rikishi (who isn't relevant here). Elsewhere, Kumagatani-beya had been in existence for a while, created by Aratama sometime after 1890, achieving a moderate level of success. In January 1921, ex-Aratama gave up his oyakata status due to old age, the stable being handed over to a successor. This turned out to be Shikishima, a former maegashira also of Tomozuna, 33 years old and freshly fallen to makushita. (Current DB status: Shikishima is correctly listed as having become Kumagatani in 1921.01, but not as a heya successor. Instead via an undated later branch-out that doesn't appear to be real, presumably listed that way because we just had no pre-1927 heya data to know what actually happened there.) In any case, this was not a universally agreed-upon succession, as alludes to a dispute with the stable's sole active makuuchi rikishi Kiyosegawa who also hoped to take over. Snubbed, Kiyosegawa (with uchideshi in tow) left for....Tateyama-beya, apparently created at this time solely for that purpose; makes it clear that ex-Tomohibiki was a mere figurehead shisho with Kiyosegawa really calling the shots. (Current DB status: The Tateyama branchout is dated only vaguely to "before 1927". I'm not sure what will be a good, more accurate date to put. Maybe 1921.05, the month of the next basho? doesn't actually say that Kiyosegawa left Kumagatani immediately after the dispute, but it stands to reason, given the general history of similar situations.) To now answer the Isegahama-beya question - Kiyosegawa remained active as a rikishi for quite a while longer afterwards, finally retiring in 1929 at age 35. He became Isegahama-oyakata and took over the running of "his" Tateyama-beya shortly after, renaming it to Isegahama-beya in the process. So the heya carried that name since 1930 as already reflected on the DB, but its history went back to 1921. Ex-Tomohibiki stayed affiliated to the stable until his retirement nearly 30 years later. (By which time the heya had been renamed again to Araiso-beya, after it was passed on in 1953 to freshly retired yokozuna Terukuni who was using that oyakata name. It became Isegahama-beya a second time in 1961 when Kiyosegawa was one of several oyakata hit by the newly instituted age 65 retirement rule, and the share became free for ex-Terukuni to use.) -------------------------------------- While looking into the players involved here, I came across an older post of mine in this thread. The change requests therein apparently slipped through unnoticed until now:
  21. Asashosakari

    Stable and Ichimon Dominance

    Which brings up the aspect that most fans probably don't think of juryo rikishi contributing much to a stable's "dominance", so I'm not sure if a count of sekitori is really the best measure to begin with. FWIW... Highest shares of makuuchi rikishi since 1958 (only each heya's top entry, after a fashion): Futagoyama 10 of 40 (25%) in 1993.03 and 1993.05 [immediately following the Fujishima (6) / Futagoyama (4) merger] Tokitsukaze 10 of 49 (20.4%) in 1959.03 Tatsunami 8 of 40 (20%) in 1965.01 Takasago 10 of 54 (18.5%) in 1958.07 Dewanoumi 7 of 40 (17.5%) in 1964.07, 1965.03, 1965.05, 1966.05, 1966.09 and 1967.01 [absolute top: 8 of 54 (14.8%) in 1958.03] Sadogatake 7 of 40 (17.5%) in 1992.11 and 1993.01 Musashigawa 7 of 40 (17.5%) in 2003.09 Futagoyama pre-merger 6 of 35 (17.1%) in 1981.11 Hanakago 7 of 41 (17.1%) in 1961.09, 1961.11 and 1962.01 Izutsu 6 of 38 (15.8%) in 1989.03 Fujishima pre-merger 6 of 40 (15%) in 1991.11, 1992.03, 1992.05, 1992.07, 1992.09, 1992.11 and 1993.01 Mihogaseki 5 of 35 (14.3%) in 1981.01 Kasugano 5 of 38 (13.2%) in 1984.01 Sakaigawa 5 of 42 (11.9%) in 2012.03, 2012.07, 2014.09, 2015.01, 2015.03, 2015.05, 2015.07, 2015.11 and 2016.07 Isegahama [2007- version] 5 of 42 (11.9%) in 2014.11, 2015.01, 2015.03, 2015.05, 2015.07, 2015.09, 2015.11 and 2016.01 Kokonoe 5 of 42 (11.9%) in 2017.01, 2021.07 and 2021.09 Oitekaze 5 of 42 (11.9%) in 2019.11, 2021.03, 2021.05 and 2021.07 Miyagino 4 of 34 (11.8%) in 1967.07, 1967.09, 1967.11 and 1968.01 Isegahama [1921-2007 version] 4 of 34 (11.8%) in 1970.07 Asahiyama 4 of 34 (11.8%) in 1972.05 Nishonoseki 4 of 36 (11.1%) in 1974.09, 1974.11, 1975.01 and 1975.09 Oshima 4 of 38 (10.5%) in 1990.07 Naruto 4 of 42 (9.5%) in 2004.11, 2011.09, 2012.03, 2012.07 and 2012.09 Kise 4 of 42 (9.5%) in 2016.03, 2021.07 and 2021.09 ... Araiso 4 of 55 (7.3%) in 1958.01 (I left out some stables that topped out at 3 makuuchi rikishi, but with percentages between Kise and Araiso. The list is complete for 4+.) Edit: Scrap Araiso, I forgot that that's the same as the old Isegahama.
  22. Asashosakari

    2022 World Games

    I wonder if it's a specific sumo issue or one affecting other World Games sports as well. Skimming the regulations of the relevant visa classification, I'd say that a narrow reading of the requirements would cause most athletes in purely amateur sports to fail.
  23. Asashosakari

    New seating at the KKan

    Yeah, that's 400k yen per day currently for the block of seats that are going to be converted, not the price afterwards. Or at least that's how Nikkan calculated it, which seems a bit high to me. On top of that, the 20m yen price tag for the whole 45 days seems to be entirely their speculation, not anything the Kyokai has suggested.
  24. Asashosakari

    Ajigawa beya?

    Considering the sanyo system now already exists unchanged for about as long as the jun-toshitori system did altogether through two iterations, I daresay they're probably fine with how it's working.
  25. Asashosakari

    Measuring Ōzeki Quality

    I didn't say the pre-1969 ozeki were any better, I said that the circumstances of the time made it more palatable to expect them to be better. There were routine public complaints about both the yokozuna and the ozeki in the post-war period, usually alleging that politicking was leading to unqualified rikishi being promoted to the ranks (or conversely, qualified candidates being refused), which first led to the creation of the YDC and then more gradually to the development of today's relatively tough ozeki promotion standards as the authorities came to grips with the expanded annual schedule of tournaments. Also, a one-size-fits-all comparison purely of win-loss records and averages doesn't address the main issue, namely that the opponent schedules weren't uniformly easier, but rather (comparable to the Futagoyama effect in the 1990s) in very uneven fashion from one yokozuna/ozeki to the next.