Asashosakari

https://www.sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoBanzuke/index/ Makuuchi Terunofuji Y --- Takakeisho O Kirishima Hoshoryu S Daieisho --- S Wakamotoharu Kotonowaka K Abi Nishikigi M1 Tobizaru Shodai M2 Mitakeumi Midorifuji M3 Meisei Asanoyama M4 Ura Hiradoumi M5 Onosho Hokuseiho M6 Oho Takayasu M7 Tamawashi Sadanoumi M8 Nishikifuji Takanosho M9 Hokutofuji Kinbozan M10 Myogiryu Kotoeko M11 Tsurugisho Chiyoshoma M12 Wakatakakage Gonoyama M13 Kotoshoho Daishoho M14 Shonannoumi Ryuden M15 Takarafuji Endo M16 Bushozan Aoiyama M17 Hakuoho I wonder when we last had two shikona changes on a makuuchi banzuke...

I dunno, the top and bottom parts really were quite predictable. I wouldn't be surprised if the median score is close to 50, and that'll just be ~100th place then. We haven't seen anyone come forward with such a score yet, but I also wouldn't be shocked if the winning result is a 72 or something like that. There are bound to be a fair number of people who correctly predicted that the luck boundary would fall between Shonannoumi/Ryuden on the one side and Hakuoho/Endo on the other, and from there it didn't take that many correct decisions to get pretty close to the real thing. Oddly enough, the big wildcard seems to be Kotoeko. If you got him right, a lot of the MKs fall into place.

Yup At least it's slightly more palatable now with near-universally beloved Akiseyama holding Shimanoumi's myoseki for the time being. More seriously though, they really do hate to put promoted makushita rikishi ahead of juryo incumbents these days - Tokihayate's Ms1e 7-0 only passed Shimanoumi but not even Shiden's J13e 8-7 as well. If we were to consider Ms1e as J15e, that implies that a 7-0 against top makushita opposition is worth at most the same as a 9-6 against the bottom half of juryo. Not that I really believe that they're analyzing it like that, but whatever their current mindset is based on, I can't say I agree.

I've added plain versions of the new rankings to the makuuchi, juryo and makushita-joi posts. We'll do a proper survey about the two alternatives before the next basho. :)

61, even though plenty of my choices were miles away.

Makushita Sandanme Jonidan Jonokuchi (New shikona in red. Results in red = promotion, in blue = demotion.)

Makushita-joi Tsukahara (Ms7w 6-1) Ms1 Yuma (J14e 6-9) Hidenoumi (J12w 5-10) Ms2 Tsushimanada (J11w 3-12) Kaisho (Ms6w 4-3) Ms3 Hitoshi (Ms9w 5-2) Chiyonoumi (J14w 4-11) Ms4 Kamito (Ms10w 5-2) Fujiseiun (J6e 0-0-15) Ms5 Kiryuko (Ms2w 3-4) Takerufuji (Ms17e 6-1) Ms6 Akiseyama (Ms16e 5-2) Nabatame (Ms11w 4-3) Ms7 Tochimusashi (Ms2e 2-5) Terutsuyoshi (Ms12e 4-3) Ms8 Fukai (Ms12w 4-3) Kototebakari (Ms18e 5-2) Ms9 Hatsuyama (Ms19w 5-2) Kotokuzan (Ms4e 2-5) Ms10 Kazekeno (Ms6e 3-4) Hayatefuji (Ms7e 3-2-2) Ms11 Oshoumi (Ms16w 4-3) Tochikamiyama (Ms32e 6-1) Ms12 Ryusei (Ms23w 5-2) Asagyokusei (Ms32w 6-1) Ms13 Wakatakamoto (Ms19e 4-3) Oyamatoumi (Ms25e 5-2) Ms14 Mineyaiba (Ms8w 3-4) Ryuo (Ms20e 4-3) Ms15 Mudoho (Ms26e 5-2) no frills:

Juryo Roga (J2e 8-7) J1 Tamashoho (J5e 10-5) Kitanowaka (J5w 10-5) J2 Daiamami (J9e 11-4 D) Tomokaze (J9w 10-5) J3 Mitoryu (J2w 6-9) Oshoma (J4e 7-8) J4 Tohakuryu (J4w 7-8) Churanoumi (J7w 8-7) J5 Bushozan (M16w 3-12) Shimazuumi (J3w 5-10) J6 Azumaryu (J6w 7-8) Wakatakakage (M12w 0-0-15) J7 Ichiyamamoto (J3e 4-9-2) Shishi (J12e 9-6) J8 Chiyosakae (J10e 8-7) Takakento (J8e 7-8) J9 Akua (J8w 7-8) Chiyomaru (J11e 8-7) J10 Hakuyozan (J7e 6-9) Shiden (J13w 8-7) J11 Tokihayate (Ms1e 7-0 Y) Shimanoumi (J10w 5-10) J12 Takahashi (Ms4w 5-2) Kiho (J13e 7-5-3) J13 Asakoryu (Ms5e 5-2) Onosato (Ms3e 4-3) J14 Tenshoho (Ms3w 4-3) no frills:

I'd been meaning to poll this between tournaments, but maybe the next one and a half hours are enough to gather some feedback. Would you guys prefer this results-annotated display as the default for the banzuke release threads, or should I stay with the plain shikona-only display for the initial publication? (The annotated version would of course come with DB links like the plain version does, I just didn't have time for that in the quick proof of concept last time.)

Late question but...did they really not have a shusse presentation for him? I distinctly recall a previous case where a rikishi got injured during maezumo, missed his shot at the presentation, and then got to appear later after Jk 0-0-7 -> second maezumo. Here we go: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12044 I suppose it's not quite the same thing since Shiroma had no presentation by intent the first time around, but..

They surely would have said 30 if that's what they were going for.

Yokozuna Tochinoumi's profile is lacking his death date of January 29, 2021.

I'm sure many entrants agree.

Shrug. Somebody has to be M5w and I couldn't justify Onosho or Midorifuji there. (Wouldn't surprise me if it actually is Midorifuji though.) My first draft looked completely different but had a similar gap anyway, just between Hakuoho+Ryuden and Endo instead. I ended up going for a version that had the least amount of rikishi getting outsized promotions while setting up MK demotions that I still felt comfortable with, which is my reading of what they've been doing the last few years. Could be entirely wrong, but this is a banzuke where, in all likelihood, most players will be wrong.

It's safe to say that most rikishi whose last score ends up as 0-0-7 have retired in between tournaments, whether or not we actually found out about it between tournaments, too. Feel free to verify if the current count of four would qualify as a high number. (I'm excluding ex-sekitori Akiseyama as a special case here.) Edit: And I forgot about retiring banzuke-gai rikishi, for whom it's probably mostly true as well, at least those among them that aren't runaways who left even earlier.

Terunofuji (Ye 1-3-11) Y --- Kirishima (Ow 6-7-2) O1 Takakeisho (Oe 0-0-15) --- O2 Hoshoryu (S1e 12-3 Y) Daieisho (S1w 9-6) S1 Wakamotoharu (S2w 9-6) Kotonowaka (Ke 11-4) S2 --- Nishikigi (M1e 10-5) K Tobizaru (M1w 9-6) Hokutofuji (M9w 12-3 D) M1 Meisei (M3w 8-7) Asanoyama (M4e 8-4-3) M2 Abi (Kw 6-9) Shodai (M2e 6-9) M3 Tamawashi (M7w 8-7) Gonoyama (M13e 10-5) M4 Ura (M4w 7-8) Takanosho (M9e 8-7) M5 Shonannoumi (M14w 10-5) Onosho (M5w 6-9) M6 Midorifuji (M3e 4-11) Takayasu (M7e 7-8) M7 Mitakeumi (M2w 3-12) Oho (M6w 6-9) M8 Hiradoumi (M5e 5-10) Hakuoho (M17w 11-4) M9 Ryuden (M15e 10-5) Kotoeko (M11e 8-7) M10 Endo (M16e 10-5) Kinbozan (M10e 7-8) M11 Hokuseiho (M6e 5-10) Takarafuji (M15w 9-6) M12 Sadanoumi (M8e 5-10) Myogiryu (M10w 6-9) M13 Nishikifuji (M8w 5-10) Aoiyama (M17e 9-6) M14 Kotoshoho (M13w 7-8) Chiyoshoma (M12e 6-9) M15 Atamifuji (J1w 11-4 Y) Tsurugisho (M11w 5-10) M16 Kagayaki (J1e 9-6) Daishoho (M14e 6-9) M17 ---

He didn't even get to compete after receiving his proper shikona, that's harsh.

The Natsu and Nagoya results require the usual kick to make 0-win/0-loss scores work properly in queries.

Something appears to be very screwed up in the query's ability to summarize career-high ranks right now. Take this one: It shows 41 rikishi with a highest rank of M1, but it's actually true only for 15 of them, the others have (sometimes much) lower highest ranks. This only seems to affect those with a career high in the M ranks; rikishi who reached sanyaku or topped out in juryo are listed correctly. It's only bugged in the summary view, the expanded view of individual tournaments is correct for the affected rikishi. Edit: Hmm, is it erroneously taking juryo ranks as maegashira ranks? Compare this to this - as soon as Hakuoho's juryo appearances as Ochiai are included in the data, his correct high rank of M17 gets changed to the bogus M8. He did have a tournament at J8 (as did Gonoyama at J1, so it fits his error as well). Specifically, it seems to involve only juryo tournaments from before the maegashira high rank was achieved: Kiyoseumi vs. Kiyoseumi-also-as-Ichihara. His J11 tournament before his makuuchi stint appears to affect the data, his later juryo appearances afterwards do not.

Unless Shimanoumi has miraculously recovered from whatever it is that has derailed his career over the last 12 months, this seems like a very bold move even for a heyamate of Shimanoumi's... That aside, I'm going to miss Akiseyama on the dohyo. Back in 2011 when his initial foray into juryo ended after just four basho, I don't think many people would have expected that this oddly-shaped, technically limited guy with the puzzling tachiai - remember his three point stance-like starting position with the one foot way in front? - would manage to turn himself into a tenacious yotsu competitor that'll end up spending 7 years worth of tournaments in the paid ranks. Really unfortunate that injury struck so badly two years ago just as he appeared to have found yet another gear at the ripe age of 35.

I mean, he did, nearly two months ago.

I'm sorry, but while these may be your expectations, practically none of the thinking that underlies them makes any sense at all. Your "it's just the last percent of the skill curve, so the differences within it should be minimal" implication is exactly backwards from reality. Hakuho is way further ahead of the average yokozuna than the average yokozuna is ahead of the average ozeki, yet by your logic Hakuho vs. average yokozuna is basically a distinction without difference, since we're now not even talking about the last percent, but even less than that. Skill differences get larger at the extremes, not smaller. "Top 1%" is literally meaningless as a benchmark for how the rikishi included in that group should be expected to perform, since the only thing that matters for how ozeki (and yokozuna) perform is how strong they are relative to their actual opponents, who themselves constitute just the top 2-3% in modern sumo. The other 97% are at varying degrees of mostly irrelevant to completely irrelevant. Beyond that, this Y/O strength level relative to actual opponents can't even be meaningfully tied to any percentile of the overall rikishi population, whether 1% or anything else. If sumo suddenly opened up to worldwide recruiting and the number of people trying to be rikishi quintupled, the rikishi we would consider yokozuna (say, on average the best 2 at any given time) and ozeki (say, the next 3 underneath) would now represent just the top 0.2%, an even more exclusive group than before. You appear to imply that you would then expect them to perform even better, while in reality all high rankers who aren't dai-yokozuna material would probably perform worse because such an increase in the size of the talent pool would mean massively greater depth just below the Y/O, making their opponents more formidable threats.

Kaio is such a what-if story altogether. Five years before his actual ozeki promotion he already did this: 1995.05 S1w 9-6 185 cm 163 kg 1995.07 S1e 9-6 1995.09 S1w 11-4 Shukun-sho (3rd) 1995.11 S1e 9-6 Kanto-sho (1st) 1996.01 S1e 10-5 Shukun-sho (4th) 1996.03 S1e 9-6 1996.05 S1w 11-4 Shukun-sho (5th) 185 cm 151 kg 1996.07 S1e 10-5 Shukun-sho (6th) 1996.09 S1e 9-6 1996.11 S1w 11-4 D Jun-Yusho (1st) Kanto-sho (2nd) Who knows how his yokozuna prospects would have turned out, had he had some extra years as ozeki. People like to rag on some of those 1960s ozeki promotions with as few as 28 wins, but in general the guys who got those promotion nods were similar cases of "sustained goodness", for lack of a better term. It's probably unavoidable with today's type of public scrutiny (easy answers > nuanced arguments) that the "he's not a fluke if and only if he's really good in three straight tournaments" approach will continue to dominate, but IMHO it's a shame that rikishi can't demonstrate their ozeki worthiness in more ways.

I suspect a large part of what clouds some fans' impression of what the ozeki rank is, is exactly the promotion runs of the eventual yokozuna. Harumafuji going 15-0 -> 15-0 doesn't mean that that's a performance to be expected of ozeki, it means he was misranked at the time. Kisenosato was essentially misranked for years (just like Mitakeumi was, one rung lower). That's impossible to avoid fully as long as they don't loosen up the promotion criteria significantly, but while an argument can be made that the yokozuna criteria need to be as hard as they are because failure at the rank is career-ending, there's no such problem at ozeki. Put rikishi in a position to succeed, and accept that some amount of failure is inevitable. Every intermediate rank on the entire banzuke works such that there are some rikishi who are exactly good enough for that rank, but no more, and some other rikishi who are just barely good enough for it and getting there through being lucky. The Kyokai is already trying hard to minimize the latter group as much as possible for the ozeki rank, and I'll never understand the persistence with which some fans want to minimize the former as well.