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Somewhat Historical Rikishi Strength Analysis


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#1 Doitsuyama

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Posted 08 August 2004 - 21:36

As some of you might know, I have calculated strength ratings (on the ELO formula) for Ozumo based on all Juryo and Makuuchi bouts since 1989. Since I got hold of the Makuuchi bout-by-bout results since 1973 (scans from Sumo World, and typing everything into Excel...) I thought it would be a nice idea to expand my ratings to start from 1973.



So I did and I am very pleased with the results, pretty accurately showing the performances of all Makuuchi rikishi since 1973, including many Yokozuna and Ozeki. Now I tried to answer the world-moving question "How to compare the rikishi from different eras?" with the help of my ratings.



The easiest thing is just to compare the peak career rating. The disadvantage of that is that several rikishi have a short peak with big drop-offs elsewhere (for example Mienoumi) while other rikishi have countless basho near the career peak (for example Musashimaru).



I discarded the idea of taking the career average rating because rikishi generally are viewed upon their top performances when evaluating the career. Also such rikishi as Konishiki got a low career average only because they competed until they couldn't, what shouldn't count against them.



My solution was to take the best N ratings (with N = 3, 6 and 10) and calculate a weighted average of them with the career peak rating getting the weight N and the Nth best rating getting the weight 1. Furthermore, since the ratings from one basho to another are strongly dependent, all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart. A big value for N favors rikishi with sustained and successful longevity, while a short N favors rikishi who have a short peak period.



Let us just look at the results, shall we?



I made tables grouped by the career highest rank (Yokozuna, Ozeki and so on), leaving away all rikishi with less than 20 Makuuchi basho. The columns mean :



Rank = highest career rank

Basho = # non-kyujo basho since 1973 (I left away all kyujo basho in the whole calculation)

Makuuchi = # non-kyujo basho in Makuuchi (only relevant from 1989 onwards since I don't have Juryo bouts before that)

Kyujo = # kyujo basho

Peak = career peak rating

Rating 3 = weighted average of top 3 career ratings

Rating 6 = weighted average of top 6 career ratings

Rating 10 = weighted average of top 10 career ratings

Rank = overall rank for the rating left to that column




















Yokozuna
RankShikonaBashoMakuuchiKyujoPeakRankRating 3RankRating 6RankRating 10Rank
Y1eKitanoumi6969426911268012659126261
Y1eChiyonofuji7575626422263022613225972
Y1eMienoumi47471258932537724869244212
Y1eTakanohana69641125894257832562425414
Y1eWajima4949125795257142562325503
Y1eWakanohana II5252325706256252543525135
Y1eAkebono56531025657253862521625046
Y1eAsashoryu242202563825328248410241217
Y1eTakanosato5656225549251310247412242814
Y1eAsahifuji53531253210252392509724817
Y1eHokutoumi464672522112510112497824769
Y1eMusashimaru70685249314248013247213246510
Y1wOnokuni45456248815247315245515243013
Y1wFutahaguro20201247519246416242019238821
Y1eWakanohana III56535242926241826240223238920




Clearly Kitanoumi was the best rikishi since 1973, no matter how you slice it. The vote is overwhelming. Chiyonofuji of course has more yusho but my ratings suggest very strongly that the competition for Kitanoumi was a lot harder than for Chiyonofuji with Wajima, Wakanohana II and Mienoumi also claiming top slots in this table.



Chijonofuji also very clearly is far ahead of the third best rikishi whoever this is. The peak rating has Mienoumi ahead by parts of a point, but the weighted ratings clearly have Takanohana and Wajima pretty much equally in third place followed by Wakanohana II and Akebono.



Mienoumi's peak was so short that his weighted ratings rapidly drop off with more basho into the equation. Musashimaru on the other hand has a peak of "only" 2493, but also many years with ratings close to the peak.



Clearly the weakest Yokozuna in this period are Futahaguro (hurt of course by a premature Intai) and Wakanohana III (no excuses - he would have been better off staying Ozeki).



Asashoryu just barely qualifies for the 20 Makuuchi basho limitation as he still isn't a full four years in Makuuchi. So it is no wonder his weighted 10 basho rating has a big drop off which will take care of itself within the next year or two. He also has all the time to improve his career peak rating as he is just now sitting on it.



























Ozeki
RankShikonaBashoMakuuchiKyujoPeakRankRating 3RankRating 6RankRating 10Rank
O1eWakashimazu40400248516245618242118237925
O1eKonishiki78783247717246317244816242615
O1eKirishima70701247618243820239726233630
O1eKaio73643245720244319243017241816
O1eDaiju26260245321239030234133230336
O1eTochiazuma45425245122242322240024237924
O1eTakanohana49490244423242223240322238123
O1eKotokaze46463243224243221241221238919
O1eAsahikuni41410243225242224239925236427
O1eChiyotaikai51384242127241925241520239618
O1eTakanonami80760241428239729238229236128
O1eAsashio62621241229240527238928237426
O1eHokutenyu58582240930240528239627238522
O1eKaiketsu37370240431238331235930232931
O1eMusoyama64624240132237532235731233929
O1eDejima44414239533237433234232231133
O1wMiyabiyama33312235140230742227844225644
O1eMasuiyama50500234042230744227745225445




The cut-off between Yokozuna (Futahaguro and Wakanohana III excluded) and Ozeki is very sharp as no Ozeki surpasses the Yokozuna in any rating category. I'd say this is a strong argument in favor of the existing Yokozuna promotion guidelines whatever they are exactly.



Besides Konishiki, the best Ozeki by career rating evaluation seems to be Kaio, as both Wakashimazu and Kirishima have a higher career peak but a very short one. But even Kaio's rating evaluation doesn't provide strong arguments for a Yokozuna promotion. He is one of the best Ozeki ever as is Chiyotaikai. Chiyotaikai's peak isn't that high but he already has impressive longevity marks despite being only 28 years old. Tochiazuma also has been a strong Ozeki so far, with higher but shorter peak.



Takanonami wasn't that strong of an Ozeki as often is claimed. His peak was relatively low, and also pretty short. And sadly Musoyama really is one of the weaker Ozeki since 1973 while Miyabiyama and Masuiyama don't quite belong to the Ozeki group at all.



















































Sekiwake
RankShikonaBashoMakuuchiKyujoPeakRankRating 3RankRating 6RankRating 10Rank
S1eKotomitsuki27222236135233136230738227837
S1eWakanosato38333235737233635232035227838
S1eKotonishiki69652235538234834233134231532
S1eKotogaume73521235439232338229940227440
S1eTochinowaka75751234241231739229939227341
S1eDewanohana62620233143230345226749223852
S1eTamanofuji41410232544230743227546224250
S1eMitoizumi83755232245229446226650224051
S1eTochiakagi33332232246229347225952221855
S1eTosanoumi58541231847230941229241227539
S1eSakahoko58561231548228949225753223253
S1eArase46462231349228850226748224548
S1eAkinoshima88883229850229048228342227342
S1eTakamiyama67670229051228751227943226143
S1eTakatoriki80670228852226954225754224547
S1eKirinji83831228653228052226947225446
S1wKyokutenho50350228155226455222958218963
S1eKurohimeyama52520227756227353226351224349
S1eTerao102923227257226356223757221257
S1eWashuyama47472227158226257224256221258
S1wKotonowaka81784226859224660222661220960
S1eOzutsu80780226660224859222759220961
S1eTakanowaka30252226461223961221163216871
S1wFujizakura65650225763225458224255222154
S1eTochinonada46431223868223662222760221356
S1wTochihikari60600223869223064222162220959
S1wTamanoshima29220223771221868218771214381
S1eKitaseumi33331223772221671218770215777
S1wAobajo62620223573222665220166217867
S1eHasegawa21210223474222367220665220062
S1wKurama66611222776222366220864218465
S1wTamakasuga56461222477219776218274216472
S1wDaijuyama63631222278221072219967218664
S2eWakashoyo3722122218021639821231062088133
S1wKotofuji42361220390218983217279214978
S1eKaiki65651218995217990215884214182
S1wToryu56491218797216695214892212991
S1wTochitsukasa4331121751062160101214198212396
S1eMasudayama51470217410721581032133103211599
S1wTagaryu544902165115213211721111202098120
S1eHo-o353312151118213511421171132101111
S1wKoboyama524702143126212912021141142103109




Again a very clear cut-off line between Ozeki and Sekiwake. With the exception of Miyabiyama and Masuiyama all Sekiwake since 1973 have been weaker than the Ozeki group. The two strongest Sekiwake are Kotomitsuki and Wakanosato, both of course still are Ozeki contenders. They need a push in their performance to reach the big barrier though. With weighted 10 basho rating Kotonishiki is the best Sekiwake, no wonder considering his career marks.

Edited by Doitsuyama, 14 January 2005 - 16:45.


#2 Doitsuyama

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Posted 08 August 2004 - 21:38





































Komusubi
RankShikonaBashoMakuuchiKyujoPeakRankRating 3RankRating 6RankRating 10Rank
K1eAsahiyutaka322402241672184862149912110105
K1eRyogoku35320223770221770219768217966
K1eYutakayama45450222975221073219269217069
K1eMisugisato62530222179220175217876215874
K1wKenko37273221781219577216481212894
K1eSadanoumi45450220983219380217578215776
K1eToki41351220685218585216382214579
K1wKyokudozan47471220687218387215188212990
K1wHananoumi25252220388218982217677217070
K1eDaishoho48333220389216993215089212989
K1eOshio47471219692217392214893212992
K1wKurosegawa26260219193215810221341022110103
K1eAobayama31310219094218088216383214083
K1eOginishiki70454218698217989215586213187
K1wBanryuyama323202182101213411521091242085135
K1wChiyotenzan422212178103215410621211102072153
K1eWakajishi313102173108214710821181112089132
K1eOnishiki5353021691102160100214894213286
K1wKyokushuzan564802169112216794215885214480
K1wWakanoyama623112155116212712320991392069159
K1wKaiho433612150121213211621051302081141
K1wTamakiyama242402148123212412521051292085137
K1eKotoinazuma686012146124212213121031322090127
K1wItai545312141128213211821211092110102
K1eFutatsuryu222222138132212212821131172110104
K1wDaizen723522137134212712221111212090129
K1eJingaku484702135138212212921141152105107
K1wTakamisugi717012132139212512421131182103108
K1eMainoumi523612131140210315120891512078145
K1wHamanoshima544412127144210414820891502075148
K1eTakanofuji373302114156210115220921462079144
K1wDaitetsu423102107162209216220821592072154
K1wTamaryu463002103166209815620831582065161




The cut-off line between Sekiwake and Komusubi is not that sharp, but still very clear. Asahiyutaka has the best peak rating of the Komusubi but also a big drop-off around the peak. So I'd say the best Komusubi since 1973 were Ryogoku and Yutakayama.









































Maegashira
RankShikonaBashoMakuuchiKyujoPeakRankRating 3RankRating 6RankRating 10Rank
M1wAmanoyama30300220784217891215587212795
M1eKushimaumi58350220686219379217975216273
M1eTochiazuma2424121751042154107213799212098
M1eHananokuni362402175105215510521341012099116
M2eDaishoyama3122221711092161992146952111101
M1wAogiyama683632151119212812121131192090130
M3eTokitsuumi423422148122214410921241052100113
M2eKirinishiki483232142127212911921141162098119
M1wHigonoumi595142136137211413821021332094122
M1wZaonishiki242402130141212013220921472070157
M1wToyonoumi633002128142211813421061282091124
M1eWakasegawa343302124145211913321101222099117
M2eOginohana542612124146211813521091232091125
M1eKotobeppu322522123147210814520931452056171
M1wKotoryu544532123148211413921071252100114
M2wMisugiiso353502122150210914320991402083139
M1eAminishiki282402122151211813621011352067160
M2eMinatofuji614512122152211513721021342090128
M2wAsanosho383122114154210514720871552069158
M4eKiraiho382502109158208516920721682051175
M1wShikishima442712108161209416120791612062167
M2wFutagodake212112107163210314920941442089131
M1eKasugafuji464212100170209615920881522080142
M1wTochisakae262022099172208317120651742042181
M3wKitakachidoki694812096173209416020881542080143
M1wEnazakura392602095175209216320881532062166
M1wAsanowaka705202094176208017220711702064164
M2wTochitsurugi282802083184208017320761652065162
M1wGanyu302302075192206418720531832029192
M3eDaishi542302070197206718520571792030190
M1wHidanohana262502069199206419020491862023196
M4wOtsukasa472202049210203520320202062003211




There is no real cut-off between the moto-Komusubi and the moto-Maegashira, but still there is a clear difference in average rating between these two groups of about 40 points.



By the way, Tochiazuma is one (of hopefully few) example of inadvertently being in the wrong group, as he had his true highest rank before 1973. The minimum of 20 Makuuchi basho after 1973 should reduce the number of those cases though.

Edited by Doitsuyama, 14 January 2005 - 16:46.


#3 Kashunowaka

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Posted 08 August 2004 - 23:24

Excellent post - very illuminating!

I was surprised to see Musashimaru rated that low. Thinking about it and looking at the ratings page the reasons become clearer: he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Likewise, I suppose that it will be hard for Asashoryu to get a real boost in his ratings until the general level of competition at the top of makuuchi goes up substantially. (OTOH he has to face everybody at the top, which I assume compensates somewhat.) Am I right about that?

Q: Is the rating updated after each bout, or after each basho?

#4 Zuikakuyama

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 01:42

Thank you Doitsu.

Is there any way to access your new database directly? I can seem to find it on your page. For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

#5 Asashosakari

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 01:59

I agree, truly excellent! (In a state of confusion...)

What surprised me was that even the rather unremarkable Onokuni comes out ahead of all the Ozeki, I didn't quite expect that.

And in the department of useless trivia, I'm intrigued to find out that Wakashoyo was the only rikishi in this survey with a haridashi sanyaku ranking as his highest rank. (I am not worthy...)

One prodecural question...when you say that "all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart", do I interpret this correctly to mean that (for example) a full N=10 would require at least 28 ranked basho?

For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

Presumably that's Kitanofuji and Kotozakura, both excluded for not having 20 basho post-1973.

Edited by Asashosakari, 09 August 2004 - 02:04.


#6 Mark Buckton

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 02:01

Still working my brain around this - very interesting though.

Have to ask mind - is this:

M1e Tochiazuma 24 24 1 2175 104 2154 107 2137 99 2120 98

the current Tochiazuma's father? If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake. (In a state of confusion...)

#7 Zentoryu

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 02:54

the current Tochiazuma's father?  If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake.  (In a state of confusion...)

Yes, but his highest rank came before 1973, which was the cut-off point for the day-to-day records used by Doitsuyama in calculating his ratings. So the first Tochiazuma is only rated for the tournaments he participated in after 1973, during which time he didn't advance past M1. As Doitsuyama mentioned, he is a bit misplaced in the bottom grouping because of this.

Edited by Zentoryu, 09 August 2004 - 02:59.

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#8 Zentoryu

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 05:10

What surprised me was that even the rather unremarkable Onokuni comes out ahead of all the Ozeki, I didn't quite expect that.

Well he did have a rather good run from mid 1987 through 1988 (which I assume was probably his peak period) winning 2 Yusho (one zensho) and 4 Jun-Yusho (2 of them 13-2). All of this against some tough competition (Chiyonofuji and the like). Unfortunately for him it was a performance he couldn't sustain.

Edited by Zentoryu, 09 August 2004 - 05:46.

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#9 Doitsuyama

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 06:03

Excellent post - very illuminating!

I was surprised to see Musashimaru rated that low. Thinking about it and looking at the ratings page the reasons become clearer: he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Likewise, I suppose that it will be hard for Asashoryu to get a real boost in his ratings until the general level of competition at the top of makuuchi goes up substantially. (OTOH he has to face everybody at the top, which I assume compensates somewhat.) Am I right about that?

Q: Is the rating updated after each bout, or after each basho?

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna. To Asashoryu, I wouldn't exactly say the current top ranks are weak, it is rather average now. And he is holding his own quite well with a lot of 15-0 and 14-1. Considering his really low number of basho so far, his career placement already is pretty high, I'd say. It only can (and most probably will) get better.

To your question: The ratings are calculated after every bout, but for this analysis I only took the final ratings after each basho.

#10 Doitsuyama

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 06:20

Thank you Doitsu.

Is there any way to access your new database directly? I can seem to find it on your page. For example, I noticed that there is a gap in the N1 rankings for 12-13 and wonder happed to it.

Not yet. I still have to update the current pages, and probably will do so with a MySql database and one or two PHP pages. Probably even less work than copying and pasting some hundred basho, plus I then could do a PHP page to see a rikishi's progress basho per basho. If there is interest for the stuff, I also could expand the database and make a page to see the bout-by-bout progress for a rikishi, or a page to analyze specific combinations, like Akinoshima-Kotonishiki or Musashimaru-Takanonami.

Gaps in the ranks result because I left all rikishi with less than 20 Makuushi basho off the tables. Ranks 12 and 13 indeed are Kitanofuji (Peak 2501 with 8 basho) and Kotozakura (2519 with 9 basho).

#11 Doitsuyama

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 06:24

One prodecural question...when you say that "all N ratings must be at least 3 basho apart", do I interpret this correctly to mean that (for example) a full N=10 would require at least 28 ranked basho?

Correct... if there are less than 10 samples available, I leave it at that. Futahaguro for example only has 6 possible samples, the 6th already his Makuuchi debut basho with an (unfairly) low rating. In the weighted 10 basho rating I then take those 6 with the weights 10 to 5, leaving out the samples 7 to 10.

#12 Doitsuyama

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 06:28

Have to ask mind - is this:

M1e Tochiazuma 24 24 1 2175 104 2154 107 2137 99 2120 98

the current Tochiazuma's father? If so I believe his highest career rank was Sekiwake. (In a state of confusion...)

Yes, you are correct. I mentioned that in the last paragraph, funnily specifically with Tochiazuma... no reprimanding though for not reading through. (I am not worthy...)

#13 Kashunowaka

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 12:03

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna.

Yes, I get it now. If Musashimaru had really been equal to Akebono in strength, he should have won more bouts, considering that he got easier opponents on average. So the rating reflects his true strength.

#14 Kashunowaka

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 12:45

I have done some reading on the ELO rating system. Hands up everyone who thought that ELO was an acronym. I did ... (In a state of confusion...) It is named after its inventor, Hungarian Árpád Élő.

Edit: Apparently Élő moved to the US at age 10, so perhaps it's even more correct to say that the ELO system was devised by American Arpad Elo.

Edited by Kashunowaka, 09 August 2004 - 13:13.


#15 Kintamayama

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 14:09

I have done some reading on the ELO rating system. Hands up everyone who thought that ELO was an acronym. I did ... (In a state of confusion...) It is named after its inventor, Hungarian Árpád Élő.

I thought Jeff Lynne invented ELO. You live and learn.

Arpad in Hebrew means vampire. I am in awe.

BTW, totally awesome work done by the wizard himself. I have no idea what to make of it, though. I guess the guys at the top are the best, but all I can say is wow..
I wish I knew a fraction of what you guys are talking about.. ELO, weights, 3/6/10, cut off points..
But I do know what a small portion at CHAMPPS is..

Edited by Kintamayama, 09 August 2004 - 14:14.

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#16 Araiwa

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 17:20

Thanks Doitsuyama-zeki, this is truly amazing work! (In a state of confusion...) I agree with Kintamayama, and because I don't really understand how this works it is even more magic to me. But if I'm not all mistaken you need the bashoresults and all the personal profiles of the rikishi to make this, eh?

Quite surprising that Kitanoumi surpasses Chiyonofuji but he truly was more constant in his results, he also holds the records for most wins per year and most consecutive double digit KKs, does he? This is the statistic of the year! (I am not worthy...)
"Let the metal flow!" - Chuck Schuldiner

#17 Doitsuyama

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Posted 09 August 2004 - 17:39

But if I'm not all mistaken you need the bashoresults and all the personal profiles of the rikishi to make this, eh?

I need all bouts, not only the basho results. The ratings are determined not only by the results (which "bashoresults" can give), but most importantly against whom the results were achieved.

The truth is, the calculation of the ratings in itself was a relatively simple matter, even if you have to make some (several, actually) considerations to complete the calculation model. The real work was collecting all those results (for the raw material I want to thank Chijanofuji from 1973 to 1988 and Yubiquitoyama from 1989 onwards) and working out all the shikona changes etc. I have more bouts even earlier back to 1761 or so, but "only" for the Sanyaku, also with all shikona changes worked out. But I guess the material is a bit too thin to make real ratings from that.

#18 wanchanyama

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Posted 10 August 2004 - 23:01

[quote name='Doitsuyama' date='Aug 9, 2004, 17:39'] [/QUOTE]
I need all bouts, not only the basho results. The ratings are determined not only by the results (which "bashoresults" can give), but most importantly against whom the results were achieved.

The truth is, the calculation of the ratings in itself was a relatively simple matter, even if you have to make some (several, actually) considerations to complete the calculation model. The real work was collecting all those results (for the raw material I want to thank Chijanofuji from 1973 to 1988 and Yubiquitoyama from 1989 onwards) and working out all the shikona changes etc. I have more bouts even earlier back to 1761 or so, but "only" for the Sanyaku, also with all shikona changes worked out. But I guess the material is a bit too thin to make real ratings from that. [/quote]

Doitsu,

You will be able to find the daily bout results for July - Sept 1972 on www.juryo.com from the Mainichi newspaper. I have put up the first 5 days of November 1972 and have days 6-11 on my computer at home to be typed when I get a chance. Articles for 1972 are somewhat longer to type compared to those from 1930s and 1950s.

Only a couple more basho, but a bit more nonetheless. They are in table format, so should be easy enough to copy. Can scan and send as jpg files if you want sooner.

Wanchanyama

#19 hoshidango

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Posted 11 August 2004 - 16:43

Impressive stats Doitsuyama. And yes the strongest Non-Ozeki Kotonishiki was there....

#20 Chienoshima

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Posted 14 January 2005 - 16:14

Why this amazing and awesome piece of a work is not anymore readable ?

Many thanks anyway Doitsuyama !!! :-O

Regards,
Chienoshima

Ps : Can someone fix the problem with the tables ?

#21 Doitsuyama

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Posted 14 January 2005 - 16:48

Ps : Can someone fix the problem with the tables ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ok, I fixed that. The new board version could have been slightly more compatible to the previous one if you ask me... Or at least the version upgrade could have included those pretty easy conversions like HTML option.

#22 hoshidango

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Posted 15 January 2005 - 05:39

On the new glance of the list today I just realized Mienoumi was listed quite high... Him becoming Yokozuna was one of two wonders in the Sumo(another one being Hokutoumi becoming one). My impression of Mie was always at Shimotori level at best, but detail analysis shows he is quite high... very interesting indeed.

#23 Chienoshima

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Posted 15 January 2005 - 16:37

Ok, I fixed that. The new board version could have been slightly more compatible to the previous one if you ask me... Or at least the version upgrade could have included those pretty easy conversions like HTML option.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Thanks a lot, Doitsuyama !! You're the best !! ;-)

Au revoir,
Chienoshima

#24 sumofan

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Posted 16 January 2005 - 12:54

first of all: thank you Doitsuyama for this most excellent article.
even though God and the Kyokai work in mysterious ways (I was stupid...) it seems as if the gap between ozeki and Yokozuna is real enough. (Blushing...)


Excellent post - very illuminating!
he was third best for years, and when he finally made it to yokozuna his rating suffered because of his heya advantage at the time, and because the highest rated rikishi (Takanohana) was absent a lot.

Well, I'd say I don't quite agree with your reasoning. The rating system is designed specifically to totally include the strength of the opponents. So, the two factors you describe (heya advantage and weak top opposition) simply are factored in the ratings.

To Musashimaru, especially with his heya advantage he should have made a lot more 14-1 or 15-0 to be on par with Akebono or the other Dai-Yokozuna.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


your reasoning is correct, but isn't it also true that -since you can gain more points by winning against higher ranked rikishi - you need them to get higher scores?

i could be wrong of course. statistical analysis math lies almost 10 years in the past ... (Sign of approval)

#25 Zuikakuyama

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Posted 26 January 2005 - 04:17

The case of Kaio has always puzzled me.

He is not like other rikishis whose strength deteriorates over time. Rather his rating has gone up (from 2300 to 2400) in the last 5-10 years, despite having numerous well known injuries. Is he qualitively better now than during the Ake-Taka era?

Is the system fully accounting for the strength of the opposition?

As a comparision, Musoyama has also gone up since year 2000 when the 2 yokozunas were not active. Musashimaru has experienced less fluctuations, but there is still a slight increase.


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