So, what can we conclude from last bashos results and ratings? I picked out some results which I found interesting. The ELO rating system in itself isn't flawless, but it often does a pretty good job, as you will see:Asashoryu
(15-0 / expected wins 12.6) cannot do more than this to improve his rating. And he didn't get the chance to beat number 2 (Kaio), which would have improved his ratings even more. This is one possible flaw with the strength rating: your true strength can't be measured if you win all matches. Chiyotaikai
(8-7 / expected 8.4) has a result which reflects his actual strength very well. He isn't better than this.Tochiazuma
(11-4 / 9.1) exceed the expectations quite a lot.Wakanosato
(6-9 / 9.1) had the same expectancy as Azuma and did the opposite.Hakuho
(11-4 / 8.9) has exceeded his expected result according to the rating formula in every basho so far. The reason is simple: it takes some time for the rating to catch up when a new "player" is introduced. We have yet to see the limit for this boy.Iwakiyama
(8-7 / 7.3) did well to get his 8. It will be another struggle for KK next time.
Everyone else in the maegashira-joi (M1-M5)
had an expectancy of between 6 and 7 wins for their bouts in this basho. Kakizoe
(8-7 / 6.0) was just below 6, so kachi-koshi was good for him. Kotooshu
(9-6 / 6.5) is new so his rating must be taken with a grain of salt. Kokkai
(7-8 / 6.8) has been in makuuchi for a year and seems to have found his level of competition.
Most of the time the rikishi in this group will trade places with each other and get the occasional kachi-koshi good enough to get them to sanyaku. No wonder that the maegshira-joi is so hard to predict.Kyokutenho
(10-5 / 7.3) was rather low on the banzuke so 10-5 would perhaps not be so strange, if not for his hard schedule. According to ratings, he wasn't expected to do better than 7-8! His last two basho have affected his rating for the worse though. Tenho goes back to where he belongs, which is in the vicinity of Iwakiyama.
For makuuchi in general, the actual outcome were in many cases very close to the expected outcome. Some disappointments were Kotonowaka
(4-11 / 6.1), Kotoryu
(4-11 / 6.8) and Tokitsuumi (5-10 / 7.0), whereas there were few who exceeded their expected outcome with more than one win. No wonder this basho felt a little dull. Kasugao
had 9-6 / 7.1. Ama
had 8-5 / 5.7 in the 13 bouts he fought but his rating hasn't quite caught up yet.
In juryo Otsukasa
(12-3 / 8.1) was way better than anyone expected, and Gojoro
(4-11 / 8.0) was way worse.