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The Six Ozeki Poll


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Poll: The Six Ozeki Poll (38 member(s) have cast votes)

For how many basho do you think there will be six Ozeki?

  1. Less than 6 basho (ie, under a year) (15 votes [39.47%])

    Percentage of vote: 39.47%

  2. 6 to 12 basho (20 votes [52.63%])

    Percentage of vote: 52.63%

  3. More than 12 basho (ie, over two years) (3 votes [7.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.89%

When one of the Ozeki leaves the rank, what do you think the reason will be?

  1. Promotion to Yokozuna (17 votes [44.74%])

    Percentage of vote: 44.74%

  2. Demotion from Ozeki (16 votes [42.11%])

    Percentage of vote: 42.11%

  3. Retirement as Ozeki (5 votes [13.16%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.16%

And who do you think will be the first of the six to leave the rank (for the reason you voted for)?

  1. Kotooshu (16 votes [42.11%])

    Percentage of vote: 42.11%

  2. Harumafuji (4 votes [10.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.53%

  3. Baruto (12 votes [31.58%])

    Percentage of vote: 31.58%

  4. Kotoshogiku (3 votes [7.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.89%

  5. Kisenosato (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. Kakuryu (3 votes [7.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.89%

Vote

#1 Yubinhaad

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 23:57

I originally intended to set this up after the Natsu basho, as I thought it might help to see what happened in the first basho with six Ozeki. But actually, now is probably better since they're all starting from scratch, as it were - none of them are on a Yokozuna run or in a kadoban situation.

Timewise, I went for the middle ground, 6 to 12 basho. Next, I went for Demotion as the reason for losing an Ozeki, simply because I think that's more likely to happen before another tsunatori. Finally, I went for Kotooshu as the first to leave the rank - nothing personal, he certainly has his brilliant days, but they are few and far between when set against his record over the last couple of years. He also seems more susceptible to injury than the rest, unfortunately.

Anyway, let's see what happens.

#2 Asojima

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 00:19

I agree that Kotooshu will be the first to go and it will be downward. I don't think he will last more than 6 bashos.


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#3 Asashosakari

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 00:27

I'll go for the Baruto yokozuna promotion sometime within the next year.

Osh is pretty clearly the least of the three "old" ozeki, but every time I've written him off over the past few years he has one of those tournaments where he barely seems to care and still walks away with 9 easy victories, so I've given up making meaningful long-term predictions about him altogether...

#4 Fay

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 02:08

Of course I go for a yokozuna promotion for Kakuryu :-)

Well I hope this will happen first. My demotion Ozeki is Baruto. I don't know why i'm always so pessimistic with this guy, I'm always wrong when there is a poll or question about him ... ;-)

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#5 Kintamayama

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 05:30

I agree that Kotooshu will be the first to go and it will be downward. I don't think he will last more than 6 bashos.

Exact same vote. Great minds etc..

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#6 Jejima

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 16:19


I agree that Kotooshu will be the first to go and it will be downward. I don't think he will last more than 6 bashos.

Exact same vote. Great minds etc..


ditto
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#7 Torabayama

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 17:01

Same here: 6-12, demotion, Kotooshu.
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#8 Asojima

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 17:17



I agree that Kotooshu will be the first to go and it will be downward. I don't think he will last more than 6 bashos.

Exact same vote. Great minds etc..

ditto

I almost voted that he would retire as an ozeki. His heart is no longer in it.

Edited by Asojima, 15 April 2012 - 17:22.

 Inside every old person there is a young person who wonders what the hell happened. 

Adoptee: Hitachigo (Ms29w), 29 yrs; 148.8kg/183cm, 11th year, High: Ms15w ---- Kyushu ( 2 - 5 )
Adoptee: Homarefuji (M12w), 29 yrs; 149.2kg/179cm, 7th year, High: M12w   ----- Kyushu ( 8 - 7 )


#9 kuroimori

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 17:55

I also went for 6-12 basho & demotion - but for the Geek,

I really think he doesn't have what it takes to hold on to the rank for too long.

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#10 yorikiried by fate

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 20:02

I also went for 6-12 basho & demotion - but for the Geek,

I really think he doesn't have what it takes to hold on to the rank for too long.


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#11 Torabayama

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 02:53




I agree that Kotooshu will be the first to go and it will be downward. I don't think he will last more than 6 bashos.

Exact same vote. Great minds etc..

ditto

I almost voted that he would retire as an ozeki. His heart is no longer in it.


I can't remember the last time it looked like his heart was in it. Has he every said what his post-retirement plans are?

Edited by Torabayama, 16 April 2012 - 02:53.

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#12 Oshirokita

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 06:13

A while ago I answered one of these polls predicting Harumafuji would be the next yokozuna. I will stick my neck out again and reaffirm that, in less than 6 basho.... (Whistling...)

I notice you don't have an option for getting a 7th ozeki before we lose one of the current 6. Not that there is anyone close to making it before we lose some of the current crop, of course.

#13 Bugman

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 16:55

I chose "less than 6 basho"" for the first question, "promotion to yokozuna" for the second question and "Baruto" for the third question.

Despite kotooshu's recurringly poor form, i think he has enough in him to stay as Ozeki (apart from the fact i would very much like him to stay anyway) i also think Baruto is just getting better and better, his last basho may have been a little too much too soon after his previous success and his nerves may have gotten the better of him, but i think he is devastating on his day and should he reach his peak regularly i can see him becoming Yokozuna, though he will never be like Hakuho i don't think.

These all just uneducated guesses by me of course, but i wanted to join in the fun :-D

I also went for 6-12 basho & demotion - but for the Geek,

I really think he doesn't have what it takes to hold on to the rank for too long.


It's interesting you say this, i am in two minds about kotoshogiku, sometimes his belly-bump looks invincible, other-times when it doesn't work he looks a little bit at a loss, only time will tell i guess.

A while ago I answered one of these polls predicting Harumafuji would be the next yokozuna. I will stick my neck out again and reaffirm that, in less than 6 basho.... (Whistling...)


I hope! Harumafuji is the most exciting rikishi for me when he is in top form even though i do not usually cheer for him, if i was a rikishi i would fear him most, i find him to be the scariest, baddest (in a good way :-D ) rikishi in the dohyo when he is firing all cylinders, even scarier than Hakuho :)

Edited by Bugman, 16 April 2012 - 17:27.

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#14 Yubinhaad

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 21:47

I notice you don't have an option for getting a 7th ozeki before we lose one of the current 6. Not that there is anyone close to making it before we lose some of the current crop, of course.


That's pretty much why I didn't include it, since it's so unlikely. I wanted to keep it as simple as possible, which is why I also didn't include the possible scenario of a simultaneous event, ie one being promoted and another being demoted (or retiring) in the same basho. In any case, anyone who wants to 'vote' for either of those scenarios can feel free to just ignore the actual poll and write it here in the thread. :-)

Thanks a lot to everyone who has voted so far! (Sign of approval...)

#15 Sashohitowa

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Posted 18 April 2012 - 11:51

....he has one of those tournaments where he barely seems to care and still walks away with 9 easy victories...


"Seem not to care" seems to be his "thing" anyway. At least for a Bulgarian in teh eyes of a Bulgarian, he seems extremely calm and passionless :)

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#16 Asashosakari

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Posted 18 April 2012 - 12:33

"Seem not to care" seems to be his "thing" anyway. At least for a Bulgarian in teh eyes of a Bulgarian, he seems extremely calm and passionless :)

Well, we do have those Stoyanov arrest threads to tell us what passionate Bulgarian sumo wrestlers can (allegedly) get up to. ;-)

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)

Seriously though, Osh is pretty much the tall-but-thin alter ego of his shisho ex-Kotonowaka, isn't he? Another rikishi that had the "oh, if only he had a bit more spirit to go with his physical tools..." rap all career long.

Edited by Asashosakari, 18 April 2012 - 12:36.


#17 Sashohitowa

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Posted 18 April 2012 - 12:44

I have voted for a yokozuna promotion for Harumafuji in 2 year period.

First of all, I believe that Hakuho being the lonely Yokozuna will not last forever. Somebody will have to be promoted up there. Unless he continues to be one lap ahead of everybody else, which is possible of course.

So from the current crowd I think that only Harumafuji and Baruto have what is needed for the tsuna, so my vote went to Ama, who is more convincing in my oppinion.

If we are looking for who will be the first one to get a demotion, I'd go with Kisenosato. And for for the first retirement candidate as an Ozeki: Kotooshu. he is the oldest one from teh pack, in the end ;-)

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#18 ryafuji

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 19:36

I find it interesting that Kotooshu has quietly moved close to being among the top five longest serving ozeki in terms of tournaments, as the May basho will be his 38th as ozeki on the banzuke, just behind Konishiki currently in fifth place on 39, and he is still only 29 years old. That said, I still see him being the first to go, and have voted for him being demoted from ozeki some time in the next 6 to 12 basho. I think he may still continue to fight on in those circumstances, in a similar fashion to Konishiki and Takanonami.

#19 Vikanohara

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 10:25

Less than 6 basho, as Kotooshu will drop down.

Edited by Vikanohara, 04 May 2012 - 10:28.

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#20 Yubinhaad

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 16:30

I completely forgot about this until I came to make my first effort at guessing the banzuke.

Not everyone who voted revealed their choices in the thread of course, but of those who did we must take our collective hats off to Oshirokita, who got his prediction absolutely spot on - Harumafuji promoted to Yokozuna within six basho. (I am not worthy...)

Honourable mentions to Sashohitowa (wrong timespan) and Bugman (wrong Ozeki).

Thanks to everyone who took part! (Sign of approval...)

============

Screenshot of the original results (two people voted after I unlocked the topic and neglected to re-lock it):

SO1.png

Edited by Yubinhaad, 05 January 2013 - 16:16.



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